Matt’s 2023-2024 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Team by Team Analysis and Conference and Tourney Projections

This is my review of every college basketball team I have seen this year, with conference standing predictions and post-season tournament predictions. As of January 30, I’ve seen parts of games for all teams the top 12 conferences, except for five teams, and 300 of the 362 Division I teams in action, and each of the ones I have seen is reviewed individually. The top section is tournament predictions, then conference standings. And a team-by-team stats, bubble and bid steal analysis, record, player and coach analysis and review is below that. Access your team by clicking on the links in the post-season section or in the conference standings.

NCAA Tournament Teams – Who is in the NCAA Tournament? (Teams 1-68)

NIT Tournament Teams – Who is in the NIT (Bubbles Busted)? (Teams 69-100)

CBI Tournament Teams – Which 16 minor conference teams are in the CBI? (Teams 101-116, kind of)

Conference Regular Season Standings Links:

Power Six Conferences Predicted Standings: ACC | Big East | Big 10 | Big 12 | PAC 12 | SEC

Mid Major Conferences Predicted Standings: American | Atlantic 10 | Horizon | Mountain West | Missouri Valley | West Coast

Single Bid Conferences Predicted Standings: Atlantic Sun | America East | Big West | Big Sky | Big South | Coastal | CUSA | Ivy | MEAC | MAC | MAAC | Northeast | OVC | Patriot | SWAC | Southern | Southland | Summit | Sun Belt | WAC

Conference Tournament Links:

Power Six Conference Tournament Predictor and Post-Season Eliminator

Mid Major Conference Tournament Predictor and Post-Season Eliminator

One Bid Conference Tournament Predictor and Post-Season Eliminator

Team by Team Sections (see tournament links above for teams 1-116):

No Tourney – Teams 117-200 | No Tourney – Teams 201-300 | No Tourney – Teams 301-362

WHICH TEAMS ARE IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT? Each team linked to individual team description below. Green is a tourney lock.

NCAA Champion (1 Seed – Team #1): | Houston |

NCAA Runner-Up (1 Seed – Team #2): | UConn (AUTO Big East) |

NCAA Final Four (1 Seeds – Teams #3-4): | Purdue | North Carolina | [All CORRECT]

NCAA Elite Eight (2 Seeds – Teams #5-8): | Iowa State (AUTO Big 12) | Arizona | Tennessee (AUTO SEC) | Duke | [Duke a 4 seed]

NCAA Sweet 16 (Teams #9-16):

3 Seeds: | Illinois (AUTO Big 10) | Auburn | Marquette | Kentucky | [Marquette a 2 seed, Auburn a 4 seed]

4 Seeds: | Creighton | Wisconsin | Baylor | Alabama | [Baylor and Creighton 3 seeds, Wisconsin 5 seed]

NCAA 2nd Round (Teams #17-32):

5 Seeds: | Florida | South Carolina | BYU | San Diego State | [Florida 7 seed, BYU and South Carolina both 6 seed]

6 Seeds: | Saint Mary’s (AUTO WCC) | Kansas | Texas Tech | Gonzaga | [Kansas a 4 seed, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga 5 seeds]

7 Seeds: | Washington State | Nebraska | New Mexico (AUTO MWC) | Utah State | [Utah State and Nebraska are 8 seeds, and New Mexico is an 11]

8 Seeds: | Boise State | Dayton | Virginia | Michigan State | [Dayton 7 seed, Boise State and Virginia 10 seeds, Michigan State 9 seed]

NCAA First Round (Teams #33-68):

9 Seeds: | Northwestern | Nevada | Grand Canyon (AUTO WAC) | Florida Atlantic | [Florida Atlantic 8 seed, Nevada 10 seed, Grand Canyon 12 seed]

10 Seeds: | Indiana State | Colorado | Texas | Drake (AUTO MVC) | [Indiana State, DNQ, Texas 7 seed]

11 Seeds: | Oregon (AUTO Pac 12) | NC State (AUTO ACC) [RIGHT]

11 Seeds/First Four – 4 Lowest At Large Seeds: | Clemson | Colorado State | Texas A&M | St. John’s | [Clemson a 6 seed, Colorado State a10 seed, Texas A&M a9 seed, St. John’s DNQ]

12 Seeds: | Samford (AUTO Southern) | James Madison (AUTO Sunbelt) | UAB (AUTO American) McNeese (AUTO Southland) | [Samford ad 13 seed]

13 Seeds: | Duquesne (AUTO A10) | Charleston (AUTO Coastal) | Yale (AUTO Ivy) | Vermont (AUTO America East) | [Duquesne 11 seed]

14 Seeds: | Morehead State (AUTO OVC) | Oakland (AUTO Horizon) | Colgate (AUTO Patriot) | Akron (AUTO MAC) |

15 Seeds: | Western Kentucky (AUTO CUSA) | South Dakota State (AUTO Summit) | Long Beach State (AUTO Big West) | Longwood (AUTO Big South) | [Long wood 16 seed]

16 Seeds: | Saint Peter’s (AUTO MAAC) | Montana State (AUTO Big Sky) | [St. Pete’rs 15 seed, Montana State in the 1st 4]

16 Seeds/First Four – 4 Lowest Ranked Autobids: | Stetson (AUTO Atlantic Sun) | Howard (AUTO MEAC) | Grambling (AUTO SWAC) | Wagner (AUTO NEC) | [stetson got out of the 1st 4]

Will do a detailed check, but got Indiana State and St. John’s wrong. Mississippi State and TCU made the field (1 seeds from my NIT bracket).

NCAA BUBBLES BUSTED: WHICH TEAMS ARE IN THE NIT? (Teams #69-100- 32 Best Available Remaining Teams): This project is based on my NCAA projection for NET ratings.

1 Seeds: | TCU | Pitt | Mississippi State | UNLV | [TCU and Mississippi State in the NCAA field, Pitt Declined, UNLV unseeded]

2 Seeds: | Richmond | Providence | Seton Hall | Oklahoma | [Seton Hall 1 seed, Providence 3 seed, Oklahoma declined, Richmond unseeded]

3 Seeds: | Villanova | Iowa | Ole Miss | Wake Forest | [Villanova 1 seed, Iowa 3 seed, Ole MIssNOT SHOWN, Wake Forest 1 seed]

4 Seeds: | Cincinnati | Ohio State | Utah | Washington | [Cincinnati, Ohio State, Utah all 2 seeds, Washington nont participating]

5 Seeds: | South Florida | San Francisco | Bradley | Memphis | [Bradley 3 seed, SAn Francisco and South florida unseeeded, Memphis NOT LISTED.

6 Seeds: | Butler | Syracuse | Appalachian State | Kansas State | [Butler 4 seed, Syracuse NOT SHOWN, App State unseeded, Kansas State unseeded]

7 Seeds: | Indiana | SMU | UCF | Virginia Tech | [IndianaNOT shown, SMU unseeded, UCF 4 seed, Virginia Tech 3 seed]

8 Seeds: | North Texas | St. Bonaventure | Princeton | VCU [North Texas unseeded, St. Bonaventure not shown, Princeion 2 seed, VCUunseeded.

22/32 right. TCU and Mississippi State made the field. St. Johns did not and refused to participate in the NIT. Indiana State did not make the field and is in hgere. Will do a detailed check, but Indiana, Memphis, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Syracuse and Pitt all declined invites to to the NIT, and Washington is not particikpating due to coach change issues. BENEFICIARIES: Saint Joseph’s, LSU *(because Mississippi State made the field), Boston College, Xavier, Cornell, Minnesota, Loyola Chicago, UC Irvine.

2 from each of the Power 6 conferences based on NET rankings: The NIT will automatically give 2 bids to each of the six power conferences if they don’t otherwise qualify at-large. But this year, I think those 12 teams will qualify at-large, and are already selected and indicated above. NO SEC TEAMS ARE THE NIT RIGHT NOW SO TWO MORE WILL HAVE TO BE IN THE FIELD EITHER BY DROPPING DOWN OR BEING ADDED.

CBI (Teams #101-116 – 16 Best Remaining Non Major Conference Teams:
Seeds 1-4: | St. Josephs | Charlotte | Loyola Chicago | Massachusetts | Santa Clara |
Seeds 5-8: | Cornell | UMass Lowell | Northern Iowa Drexel |
Seeds 9-12: | George Mason | UNC Wilmington | Southern Illinois | UNC Greensboro |
Seeds 13-16: | High Point | Youngstown State | Toledo | UNC Asheville |

NO POST SEASON (Teams 117-362). Teams not listed individually here. See the conference standings below, or click the tourney section links above.

POWER SIX CONFERENCES REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Gray font means CBI Lock.
Yellow font means CBI Bubble.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

MULTIPLE NCAA BID CONFERENCES REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS (6 AUTOBIDS).

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Listed Seed Number means clinched conference tournament seed

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Yellow font means CBI.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

SINGLE BID CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS (20 AUTOBIDS).

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Yellow font means CBI.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

NCAA TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

March 19/20 First Four:

(12) v (12):

(12) v (12):

(16) v (16):

(16) v (16):

Midwest Region 1st Round:

(8) v (9) :

(7) v (10) :

(6) v (11) :

(5) v (12) :

(4) v (13) :

(3) v (14) :

(2) v (15) :

(1) v (16) :

Midwest Region 2nd Round:

Midwest Region Sweet 16:

Midwest Region Elite 8:

East Region 1st Round:

(8) v (9) :

(7) v (10) :

(6) v (11) :

(5) v (12) :

(4) v (13) :

(3) v (14) :

(2) v (15) :

(1) v (16) :

East Region 2nd Round:

East Region Sweet 16:

East Region Elite 8:

West Region 1st Round:

(8) v (9) :

(7) v (10) :

(6) v (11) :

(5) v (12) :

(4) v (13) :

(3) v (14) :

(2) v (15) :

(1) v (16) :

West Region 2nd Round:

West Region Sweet 16:

West Region Elite 8:

South Region 1st Round:

(8) v (9) :

(7) v (10) :

(6) v (11) :

(5) v (12) :

(4) v (13) :

(3) v (14) :

(2) v (15) :

(1) v (16) :

South Region 2nd Round:

South Region Sweet 16:

South Region Elite 8:

FINAL FOUR:

CHAMPIONSHIP:

NIT TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

March 19/20 Round of 32:

(1) v unseeded:

(2) v unseeded:

(3) v unseeded:

(4) v unseeded:

(1) v unseeded:

(2) v unseeded:

(3) v unseeded:

(4) v unseeded:

(1) v unseeded:

(2) v unseeded:

(3) v unseeded:

(4) v unseeded:

(1) v unseeded:

(2) v unseeded:

(3) v unseeded:

(4) v unseeded:

March 23-24 Round of 16:

March 26-27 Quarterfinals:

April 2 Semifinals:

April 4 Championship:

CBI TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

March 23/24 Round of 16:

(8) v (9) :

(7) v (10) :

(6) v (11) :

(5) v (12) :

(4) v (13) :

(3) v (14) :

(2) v (15) :

(1) v (16) :

March 25 Quarterfinals:

March 26 Semifinals:

March 27 Final:

POWER SIX CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

ACC Conference Tournament. The ACC tournament SHOULD come down to Duke and North Carolina again. Virginia, the 3 seed, has not shown the ability to beat either one of them. From the 4 seed down to the 10 seed, it is a morass of very average major conference teams just trying to make the tourney. Hard to predict who will end up in the semifinals against Duke and North Carolina until we see the matchups but I have tried below.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Florida State over (8) Virginia Tech in the 2nd round, (12) Notre Dame over (5) Wake Forest in the 2nd round, (12) Notre Dame over (4) Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID: North Carolina

March 12 1st Round:

(10) NC State v (15) Louisville: NC State beat Louisville on the road by 6 in their only matchup and won 6 more games in conference. NC State beat Virginia, Wake Forest and Clemson among their 9 conference wins, and the rest were against the bottom of the conference. In their non-conference, NC State beat, uh, UT Martin as thier best win, and lost to BYU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. NC State probably thinks they have a chance at the NCAAs, but really they are playing for the NIT. Louisville does have 3 ACC wins, beating Florida State and Georgia Tech at home and Miami on the road. And 15 losses. They only beat tiny schools in the non-conference, and lost to 6 majors and Chattanooga and Arkansas State. So I’m saying they are severe underdogs in this game and all games. Prediction: NC State by 2, as they are looking past this game. RIGHT: NC State by 9.

(11) Boston College v (14) Miami: BC beat Miami twice in the regular season, and won 2 more games. BC’s 8 conference wins included 6 over the bottom 3 teams and home against Syracuse and at Georgia Tech. In their non-conference they beat Richmond and St. Johns, and lost to Colorado State and Loyola Chicago. Miami is in freefall, having lost 9 straight. Their six conference wins did include several middle table teams. And Miami at one point was a tournament teams, beating Georgia, Kansas State, and Clemson early, only losing to Kentucky and Colorado in non-conference. Will Miami think it is a new season? Prediction: Boston College by 5. RIGHT: Boston College by 16.

(12) Notre Dame v (13) Georgia Tech: Notre Dame beat Georgia Tech twice in the regular season and the two teams finished with identical records. Notre Dame beat Clemson and Virginia as two of their 7 wins. In their non-conference, Notre Dame beat Oklahoma State and that is it, losing multiple games to well renowned programs. Georgia Tech’s 7 wins are almost all against top teams in conference. In their non-conference they beat Mississippi State, Penn State and UMass, and lost to Cincinnati, Nevada, Georgia, and UMass Lowell. Prediction: Hard game to predict, but Notre Dame by 10. RIGHT: Notre Dame by 4.

March 13 2nd Round:

(8) Virginia Tech v (9) Florida State: These teams split the regular season and finished with identical conference records. Virginia Tech beat Virginia and Clemson in the conference and didn’t lose to the bottom of the league. In their non-conference they beat Iowa State and Boise State in two outstanding wins, and lost only to South Carolina, Auburn and Florida Atlantic. Florida State beat no one at the top of the conference, and in their non-conference they beat Colorado, UNLV and Central Michigan, losing to Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Florida and SMU. Prediction: Florida State by 6. RIGHT: Florida State by 10.

(7) Syracuse v (10) NC State: Syracuse won both meetings between these two teams, and won 2 more games in conference as a result! Syracuse had a strange conference season, winning and losing lots of weird games. Unpredictable and inconsistent. But they won 4 of 5 at the end of the year. Syracuse’s non-conference was wins over Oregon and LSU and losses to Tennessee and Gonzaga. Prediction: Syracuse by 3. WRONG: NC State by 18.

(6) Clemson v (11) Boston College: Clemson won the only game between these teams by 11 at home, and won 3 more games in conference. Clemson won 7 of their last 10 to get back into the bubble conversation, the won and lost to random teams in conference. Clemson’s non-conference was outstanding, beating UAB, Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina, and TCU while losing only to Memphis by 2. Prediction: Clemson by 20. WRONG: Boston College by 21.

(5) Wake Forest v (12) Notre Dame: Wake Forest lost at Notre Dame in their only game of the year, but won 4 more games in conference. Wake Forest lost 8 of 9 on the road so this is not a travel team. In their non-conference they beat Florida, but lost to LSU and Georgia and Utah. I do not think this is a tournament team. Prediction: Notre Dame in the upset by 3. WRONG: Wake Forest by 13.

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Pittsburgh v (5) Wake Forest: Pitt beat Wake Forerst by 5 at home, and lost by 33 (!) on the road. Pitt had one more win in conference. Pitt won at Duke and most of their losses were one the road to mid table teams. Plus Duke and North Carolina beat them at home. Their non-conference was the very uneventful, beating only Oregon State and West Virginia, and losing to MIssouri and Clemson and Florida. Prediction: Wake Forest by 10. WRONG: Pittsburgh by 12.

(3) Virginia v (11) Boston College: Virginia beat BC on the road in their only matchup, and Virginia won 5 more games in conference.Everyone likes to hate on Virginia, but in conference they only lost to the top 2 once (though they only played them once each) and to 5 other decent teams mostly on the road. In their non-conference they beat Tarleton State, Florida, West Virginia, and Texas A&M, and they lost only to Wisconsin and Memphis. Prediction: Virginia by 6. RIGHT: Virginia by 6!

(2) Duke v (10) NC State: Duke beat NC State on the road just 2 weeks ago, and won 6 more games in conference. Duke lost twice to North Carolina, at Wake Forest, and home against Pitt and Georgia Tech. In their non-conference they lost to Arkansas (?) and Arizona and that is it, with wins over Michigan State and Baylor. Prediction: Duke by 16. WRONG: NC State by 5.

(1) North Carolina v (9) Florida State: North Carolina beat Florida State twice by 7 and 8 points, and won 7 more games in conference. North Carolina lost at Syracuse and Georgia Tech and home against Clemson in the conference season. In their non-conference they were beaten by Villanova, UConn and Kentucky, and beat a wide array of good major and midmajor conference teams, including Tennessee. Oh and they beat Duke twice. Prediction: North Carolina by 10. RIGHT: North Carolina by 25.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) North Carolina v (4) Pittsburgh: North Carolina beat Pitt on the road by 13 in their only matchup of the year. North Caroilina won 5 more games in conference. Prediction: North Carolina by 18. RIGHT: North Carolina by 7.

(3) Virginia v (10) NC State: These teams split the season series, and Virginia won 4 more games in. conference. Prediction: Virginia by 5. WRONG: NC State by 8.

March 16 Finals:

(1) North Carolina v (10) NC State: North Carolina won both meetings and should win this game easily. Prediction: North Carolina by 14. WRONG: NC STATE BY 8. AUTOBID!

Big 12 Conference Tournament. The Big 12 tourney promises to be a real war. In each round, the survivor from the previously round will be a tough matchup for the team awaiting them. Houston is the class of the conference, and Iowa State is also really excellent at the top. But there is a hungry list of about 9 teams below those two who are all fighting for position and seeding and the NCAA field. Nasty.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (5) BYU over (4) Texas Tech in the quarterfinals, (3) Baylor over (2) Iowa State in the semifinals. AUTOBID: Houston.

March 12 1st Round:

(11) Cincinnati v (14) West Virginia: Cincinnati beat West Virginia by 36 this week after losing to them earlier in the season. Cincinnati had 3 more wins in conference, and was hoping for the NCAAs (and may still be). Cincinnati’s 7 wins include wins over BYU, TCU and Texas Tech. Cincinnati beat Georgia Tech in the non-conference, and lost to Xavier and Dayton, and played no one else. West Virginia has lost 9 of 10 since their Cincinnati win, but they did beat both Texas and Kansas at home early. Cincinnati thinks they can get to the NCAAs. Prediction: Cincinnati by 20. RIGHT: Cincinnati by 5.

(12) UCF v (13) Oklahoma State: UCF won at Oklahoma State by 6 in their only matchup of the year, and won 3 more games in conference. Their 7 wins include wins over Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma which is really good. In their non-conference they beat no one of interest, and lost to Ole Miss and Miami. Oklahoma State has lost 5 in a row, and 3 of their 4 wins are against the bottom 5 in conference. Best win home against BYU. In their non-conference they beat no one and lost to multiple mid major teams. UCF still has post season aspirations. Prediction: UCF by 6. RIGHT: UCF by 15.

March 13 2nd Round:

(8) TCU v (9) Oklahoma: TCU beat Oklahoma by 9 at home in their only matchup of the year, and won one more game in conference. TCU beat Oklahoma, Baylor, Houston, and Texas Tech in their nine wins. In their non-conference they didn’t beat anyone good and lost to Clemson and Nevada. 5 of Oklahoma’s 8 wins were against the bottom 4, but they did beat Iowa State and BYU at home and Kansas State on the road. Oklahoma beat Providence, USC, Iowa and Arkansas in the non-conference, and lost only to North Carolina. Prediction: TCU by 8. RIGHT: TCU by 7.

(7) Texas v (10) Kansas State: Texas beat Kansas State at home by 6 in their only meeting of the year. Since February, Texas has only lost to nationally ranked teams. In their non-conference they played very few good teams, beating LSU and losing to UConn and Marquette. Kansas State won 7 of their 8 wins at home, beating several good teams in the process. Prediction: I really like Kansas State, but Texas is too good. Texas by 15. WRONG: Kansas State by 4.

(6) Kansas v (11) Cincinnati: Kansas beat Cincinnati by 5 at home in their only game of the season and won only 3 more games. Kansas lost 7 of their 8 conference losses on the road, losing to almost everyone at the top of the conference. Their injuries are making them vulnerable. In the non-conference they beat Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn, losing only to Marquette. Kansas is playing without their two bigs, and so they are exceptionally vulnerable. Prediction: Cincinnati by 2. RIGHT: Cincinnati by 20.

(5) BYU v (12) UCF: BYU and UCF split the season series, and BYU won 3 more games in conference. BYU lost 6 of their 8 conference losses to excellent teams on the road. They didn’t play the toughest non-conference, but beat San Diego State, NC State and Arizona State, and lost only to Utah. Prediction: I don’t really like this matchup for BYU, but I think they survive by 4. RIGHT: BYU by 14.

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Texas Tech v (5) BYU: Texas Tech beat BYU by 7 at home in their only meeting, and Texas Tech won 1 more game in conference. Texas Tech’s 7 conference losses were to 7 different teams, mostly on the road. In their non-conference, they beat no one of note and lost to Villanova and Butler. They beat a bunch of excellent teams at home. Prediction: BYU in a high level game by 4. WRONG: Texas Tech by 14.

(3) Baylor v (11) Cincinnati: Baylor only played Cincinnati once and only won by 3 at home, but Baylor won 4 more games in conference. Baylor was beaten only twice at home by Houston and TCU, and lost 5 games on the road to a mix of teams. In their non-conference they beat Seton Hall, Florida and Auburn, and lost only to Michigan State and Duke. Prediction: Baylor by 6. RIGHT: Baylor by 12.

(2) Iowa State v (10) Kansas State: Kansas State just beat Iowa State by 7 this week, and only lost by 9 on the road. Iowa State won 5 more games in conference. Iowa State lost 5 conference games in very hard road locations, and went undefeated at home. In their non-conference, they only beat Iowa and lost to Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Kind of unimpressive. But their conference record is AWESOME. Prediction: Iowa State by 1. RIGHT: Iowa State by 19.

(1) Houston v (8) TCU: Houston lost at TCU in their only matchup by 1 on the road. Houston won 6 more games in conference than TCU. Houston is on a 9 game winning streak in the Big 12 which is crazy, and they only lost at Kansas, at Iowa State and at TCU. They were undefeated in non-conference, but the best teams they beat were Texas A&M and Dayton. Prediction: Houston by 8. RIGHT: Houston by 15.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Houston v (4) Texas Tech: Houston beat Texas Tech by 25 in their only matchup at home, and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: Houston by 10. RIGHT: Houston by 23.

(2) Iowa State v (3) Baylor. Iowa State lost at Baylor by 2 in their only game of the season, and Iowa State won 2 more games. Prediction: Baylor by 5. WRONG: Iowa State by 16.

March 16 Finals:

(1) Houston v (2) Iowa State: These two teams split the regular season and Houston won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Houston by 2. WRONG: Iowa State by 28! AUTOBID!

Big East Conference Tournament. The Big East tournament is so hyped, but UConn should win this tournament easily. Creighton and Marquette are threats to beat them of course, and Creighton actually did beat them. Seton Hall has had an excellent season and must get past St. John’s in a great quarterfinal. The rest of the field is a bunch of NCAA wannabes who might get in, but probably shouldn’t.

Initial Predictions: This tournament is chalk this year. AUTOBID: UConn.

March 13 1st Round:

(8) Butler v (9) Xavier: Butler beat Xavier at home in the last game of the season, but Xavier beat them earlier. They have identical conference records. Butler did win at Creighton and at Marquette in their nine wins. Butler beat Penn State, Boise State, Texas Tech, and Cal, but lost to Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. Xavier had no wins against the top of the conference, and their best non-conference wins were Cincinnati and Saint Mary’s, losing to Purdue, Washington, Houston, Delaware and Oakland. Prediction: Butler by 3. WRONG: Xavier by 4.

(7) Providence v (10) Georgetown: Providence won both games between these 2 teams, and won 8 more games in conference. Providence’s 10 wins included home wins over Marquette and Creighton. In their non-conference, Providence beat Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Georgia, and Rhode Island, and lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma. Georgetown is 2-16 in conference with their only 2 wins with DePaul, won at Notre Dame in their only good win of the year, and were within 10 points in only 5 of their conference losses. Prediction: Georgetown loses by 10! RIGHT: Providence by 18.

(6) Villanova v (11) DePaul: Villanova’s 10 wins included only 1 game over the top 3 at Creighton. In their non-conference, however, they beat Maryland, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA, and lost to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, Drexel and Kansas State! WTF! DePaul lost by 1 and 3 points to Georgetown, but were blown out in every other game. Prediction: DePaul loses by 30! RIGHT: Villanova by 1.

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Seton Hall v (5) St. John’s: Seton Hall beat St. John’s twice, and won 2 more games in conference. Of their 7 losses, Seton Hall lost 4 to the top 3, and home against Providence and at Xavier and at Villanova. In the non-conference, Seton Hall beat no one and lost to USC, Iowa, Baylor and Rutgers. St. John’s has won 5 straight, but only 1 against the top half of the conference in that run. 7 of their 9 losses were to the top 4 in conference. In their non-conference, they beat a bunch of New England teams and Utah and West Virginia, but lost to Dayton and Michigan. Prediction: Seton Hall by 15. WRONG: St. John’s by 19.

(3) Marquette v (6) Villanova: These teams crushed each other at home, but Marquette won 4 more games in conference. Marquette lost twice to UConn, and once to Creighton and Seton Hall, and only 2 other losses in conference. They had a great non-conference, beating Illinois, UCLA, Kansas, Texas and Notre Dame, losing to Purdue and Wisconsin only. Prediction: Marquette by 1. RIGHT: Marquette by 6.

(2) Creighton v (7) Providence : These teams beat each other on the road, each by 2 points, but Creighton won 4 more games in conference. Creighton’s six conference losses are to a total mix of teams, indicating some inconsistency. But they have won 7 of 8 late. Creighton beat Iowa, Loyola Chicago, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Alabama, and lost only to Colorado State and UNLV. Prediction: Creighton by 3. WRONG: Providence by 5.

(1) UConn v (9) Xavier: UConn beat Xavier by 5 on the road and by FORTY THREE at home, and UConn won 9 more games in conference. UConn lost twice in conference, at Creighton by 19 and at Seton Hall by 15. They were held to fairly close games in about 5 other conference games, but won. They only lost ONE other game (at Kansas by 4), wtih a tough schedule and 11 Quad 1 wins. they beat Texas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga in the non-conference. Will require an upset to beat them, but the Big East teams are familiar. Prediction: UConn by 25. RIGHT: UConn by 27.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) UConn v (5) St. John’s: UConn beat St. John’s twice and had 7 more wins in conference: Prediction: UConn by 24. RIGHT: UConn by 5.

(3) Marquette v (7) Providence: These teams crushed each other at home, but Marquette won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: Marquette by 4. RIGHT: Marquette by 11.

March 16 Finals:

(1) UConn v (3) Marquette: UConn beat Marquette twice in the conference season and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: UConn by 20. RIGHT: UConn by 16. AUTOBID!

Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Big 10 tournament is all about whether anyone can find a way to beat Purdue. The rest of the conference is really down, with only Illinois seemingly having a shot. It might be chaos, with all kinds of teams beating each other in the early rounds, but those top 2 teams are likely to come out on top.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (10) Ohio State over (7) Iowa in the 2nd round abnd (6) Indiana over (3) Nebraska in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID: Purdue.

March 13 1st Round:

(11) Penn State v. (14) Michigan: Penn State beat Michigan at home by 6 in their only matchup and won 6 more games in conference. Penn State’s 9 conference wins include home wins over Illinois and Wisconsin. Penn State beat no one in non-conference and lost 6 games to major and mid major teams. Michigan has lost 6 straight with 2 to go before the tourney. 3 conference wins, including one at Iowa way back in December. In their non-conference they did beat St. John’s and Stanford, and lost to several better teams. Obviously they are potentially dangerous in any one game. Prediction: Penn State by 20. RIGHT: Penn State by 9.

(12) Maryland v (13) Rutgers: These 2 teams beat each other on the road, and they had identical conference records. Maryland’s 7 conference wins include a win at Illinois and home against Nebraska. In their non-conference they beat UCLA, but lost to Villanova, and played almost no one else. Rutgers has lost 6 of 7, but earlier in conference they beat Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska at home, in what can only be described as New York beating the midwest for no reason at all. Rutgers beat Seton Hall, but lost to Princeton, Wake Forest, and Mississippi State. Prediction: Maryland in an ugly game by 4. RIGHT: Maryland by 14.

March 14 2nd Round:

(8) Michigan State v (9) Minnesota: These 2 teams split the season series and Michigan State won one more game in conference. Michigan State lost 4 of their last 5 to drop to the 8 seed, and lost to almost everyone in conference. In their non-conference they beat Baylor and Butler and lost to Duke and Arizona. Minnesota also lost to and beat almost everyone they played lol, and in their non-conference they beat no one and lost to Missouri and San Francisco. Prediction: This is my team, but Michigan State is going to take them out. Michigan State by 10. RIGHT: Michigan State by 10!

(7) Iowa v (10) Ohio State: Iowa lost all four to Purdue and Illinois, but they did beat Nebraska and Northwestern once. In their non-conference they beat Seton Hall and lost to Creighton, Oklahoma and Iowa State. Ohio State was dead, and then they fired their coach and won 6 of 8, including a win over Purdue. Ohio State beat Alabama and West Virginia in the non-conference and lost to Texas A&M. Prediction: Ohio State by 4. RIGHT: Ohio State by 12.

(6) Indiana v (11) Penn State. Penn State beat Indiana twice in conference, but Indiana won one more game. Indiana won their last 4 against fellow bubble teams, and right before that they lost 4 in a row. Their best win is over Wisconsin in their 10 conference wins. In their non conference they struggled to beat a bunch of small conference teams, and lost to Auburn and Kansas in their only tough games. Prediction: Indiana by 7. RIGHT: Indiana by 2.

(5) Wisconsin v (12) Maryland: Wisconsin beat Maryland by 4 at home in their only matchup and won 4 more games in conference. Wisconsin has lost 8 of their last 11, 6 on the road and home to Illinois and Purdue. In their non-conference they beat Virginia, SMU and Marquette, but lost to Tennessee, Providence and Arizona. Prediction: Wisconsin by 2. RIGHT: Wisconsin by 31.

March 15 Quarter Finals:

(4) Northwestern v (5) Wisconsin: Wisconsin beat Northwestern at home in their only matchup, and Northwestern won only one more game in conference. Northwestern lost at Purdue and at Illinois, but also lost 5 other road games. In their non-conference they beat Dayton and Arizona State, and lost only to Chicago State. Prediction: Northwestern by 4, but they are injured so I regret this pick already. WRONG: Wisconsin by 9.

(3) Nebraska v (6) Indiana: Nebraska won 6 of 7 at the end of the year, beating everyone at the bottom of the conference. They lost at Illinois, but beat Purdue at home and only played each once. Prediction: Nebraska won both games between these teams by 15, and won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Indiana by 2. WRONG: Nebraska by 27!

(2) Illinois v (10) Ohio State: Illinois won the only matchup between these two teams on the road by 12, and won 5 more games in conference. Illinois’ 6 losses included 2 to Purdue, at Northwestern, at Michigan State and at Penn State and home against Maryland early. In their non-conference, they Beat Florida Atlantic, and lost close ones to Marquette and Tennessee. Prediction: Illinois by 15. RIGHT: Illinois by 3.

(1) Purdue v (8) Michigan State: Purdue won the only matchup between these two teams by 6 at home just a few weeks ago. Purdue lost 3 games all year, at Nebraskas, at Ohio State and at Northwestern. They had the best non-conference in the country, beating Xavier, Gonzaga, Tennessse, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. That’s crazy. Only problem they didn’t play Houston or UConn! Prediction: Purdue by 16. RIGHT: Purdue by 5.

March 16 Semifinals:

(1) Purdue v (5) Wisconsin: Purdue won both games between these 2 teams, and won 6 more games in conference. Prediction: Purdue by 4. WRONG: Wisconsin by 1.

(2) Illinois v (3) Nebraska: Illinois won the only game between these two by 3 at home, and won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Illinois by 12. RIGHT: Illinois by 11.

March 17 Finals:

(2) Illinois v (5) Wisconsin: Illinois won at Wisconsin in their only matchup of the year, and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Illinois by 7.

Pac 12 Conference Tournament. The Pac 12 tournament really oinly starts on the 2nd day as the 8 teams playing on day 1 are mostly just terrible, with only Washington and USC being good and the winner of that game has to beat Arizona. Unless one of the other 8 teams catches fire, really only Colorado and Washington State have any chance of beating Arizona, and they have to play each other first.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) USC over (8) Washington in the quarterfinals, (3) Colorado over (2) Washington State in the semifinals. AUTOBID: Arizona.

March 13 1st Round:

(8) Washington v (9) USC: USC beat Washington on the road in their only matchup of the year in a game I saw live and Washington had no answer for Collier. Washington has one more win in conference. Washington’s conference season was a morass of effort and non-effort games. When they try they can win. Their non-conference was also mixed, beating Xavier, UC San Diego and Gonzaga, but losing to Nevada, San Diego State and Colorado State. USC has played well at the end of the year, beating a bunch of teams above them and winning 5 of 7. They beat Seton Hall and Kansas State, and lost to UC Irvine, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Long Beach State and Auburn. Prediction: This game between two similar teams, depednings on who wins the star watch – Keion Brooks or Collier. I’d bet on Collier. USC by 10. RIGHT: USC by 6.

(7) California v (10) Stanford: Cal beat Colorado and Washington State at home as a part of their 9 conference wins. Cal’s non-conference was ugly, beating only UC San Diego and losing to 7 teams including Pacific and Montana State! Stanford has lost 8 of 10 and really look to be mailing it in. They did beat Arizona at home early, but that was really their only good conference win. Their non-conference was really ugly. Prediction: Cal by 2 in an ugly game. WRONG: Stanford by 11.

(6) Utah v (11) Arizona State: Arizona State beat Utah both times, and the two teams had identical conference records. Utah has had an immensely disappointing season, with a laundry list of losses including losses at home where they are normally good. Their non-conference was mixed, beating Wake Forest and Saint Mary’s, but losing to Houston and St. John’s. Arizona State just had a player walk off the team, and they have lost 10 of their last 13, with the occasional good win early. Arizona State beat uh SMU and San Francisco and lost to BYU, San Diego, TCU and Northwestern. Prediction: Utah wins this battle of underperforming teams by 7. RIGHT: Utah by 23.

(5) UCLA v (12) Oregon State: UCLA beat Oregon State twice , and won 5 more games in conference. UCLA lost 5 in a row at the end, before beating Arizona State to make it back to .500. UCLA had a brutal non-conference, beating no one good and losing to everyone good. Oregon State’s 5 wins, include several surprising wins including home against Arizona! In their non-conference they also beat no one of consequence and lost their three major conference matchups. Prediction: UCLA in an ugly game by 10. RIGHT: UCLA by 10!

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Oregon v (5) UCLA: These teams split the season series, but Oregon won 2 more games in conference. 5 of Oregon’s 8 conference losses came against the top 3, but they also lost at Utah, at USC and at Cal. In their non-conference they beat Georgia and Michigan, and lost to Alabama, Syracuse and Santa Clara. Prediction: Oregon by 9. RIGHT: Oregon by 2.

(3) Colorado v (6) Utah: Colorado beat Utah by 24 at home and lost to them by 6 on the road, and Colorado won 4 more games in conference. Colorado won 6 in a row at the end of the year finally playing like the team they can be, but all 6 were against terrible Pac 12 teams. They lost 6 road games in the Pac 12. Their non-conference was mixed too, beating Richmond and Miami, and losing to Florida State and Colorado State. Prediction: Colorado by 20. RIGHT: Colorado by 14.

(2) Washington State v (10) Stanford: Washington State beat Stanford by more than 10 points in both games, and won 6 more games in conference. Washington State beat Arizona twice of course, and lost 4 road games to mid table teams and at home to Washington and Oregon. Their non-conference schedule was weak, but they beat Boise State and lost to Mississippi State and Santa Clara. Prediction: Washington State by 10. RIGHT: Washington State by 17.

(1) Arizona v (9) USC: USC just beat Arizona this week, but I think they are going to play the real Arizona now. Somehow, Arizona dropped 5 Pac 12 games which is amazing. 2 to Washington State, at Oregon State, at Stanford, and at USC at the end when they didn’t care. Phenomenal non-conference with wins over Duke, Michigian State, Wisconsin, and Alabama, and losses only to Purdue and Florida Atlantic. Prediction: Arizona by 15. RIGHT: Arizona by 21.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Arizona v (4) Oregon: ARizona beat Oregon by 9 and by 20 in their two matchups and won 3 more games in conference. Oregon will be desperate to win this game. Prediction: Arizona by 25. WRONG: Oregon by 8.

(2) Washington State v (3) Colorado: These teams split the season series, and Washington State won one more game in conference. Prediction: Colorado by 1. RIGHT: Colorado by 6.

March 16 Finals:

(3) Colorado v (4) Oregon: Colorado beat Oregon twice and won one more game in conference. Pretty sure both teams are motivated and I think Colorado wins that. Prediction: Colorado by 4. WRONG: Oregon by 7.

SEC Conference Tournament. The SEC tourney is going to be fun with the top 6 going to war and Texas A&M, Mississisippi State lurking and a few teams at the bottom that could pull some upsets. Kentucky is the obvious favorite to win it all with their late performance, but of course the other top 6 will all have something to say about that. Tennesee has a good line to the final, so it will probably be Tennessee against a worn down Kentucky in the final, but should be a great tourney.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Mississippi State over (8) LSU in the 2nd round, (5) South Carolina over (4) Auburn and (6) Florida over (3) Alabama in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID: Tennessee and Knecht goes for 60 points.

March 13 1st Round:

(11) Georgia v (14) Missouri: Georgia beat Missouri by 7 at home in the early days of the conference in their only matchup and won 6 more games. Georgia has beaten South Carolina and Ole Miss this year, but those are their only 2 good conference wins. Georgia beat Georgia Tech, Florida State and Wake Forest, but lost to Oregon, Miami and Providence. Missouri has zero conference wins and no reason to expect them to start now. They have lost quite a few games by under 10 points? Prediction: Missouri loses by 20. RIGHT: Georgia by 5.

(12) Arkansas v (13) Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt beat Arkansas at home in their only matchup of the eyar, but Arkansas won two more games. Arkansas won 5 of their last 11 to move up from the very bottom of the conference, but those 5 included 2 over Missouri and one over Georgia. Vanderbilt won at Arkansas and home against Missouri and Texas A&M (by 1 point) in conference. That’s it. In non-conference, they lost a ton of games too, with their best win UNC Greensboro. Prediction: Vanderbilt loses, but only becasue they are outcoached. Arkansas by 8. RIGHT: Arkansas by 5.

March 14 2nd Round:

(8) LSU v (9) Mississippi State: Mississippi State beat LSU by 20 on the road in their only matchup, but LSU won one more game in conference. Both teams need to win to have any chance for an at-large bid which is already sketchy. LSU beat 3 of the top 6 in the conference among their nine wins. In the non-conference, LSU beat Wake Forest, and lost to Nicholls, Dayton, Syracuse, Kansas State and Texas. Mississippi State won 8 games, including home against Tennessee and Auburn early in the conference. In their non-conference, they beat Arizona State, Washington State, Northwestern, and Rutgers, and they lost to Georgia Tech and Southern. Prediction: Mississippi State by 15. RIGHT: Mississippi State by 10.

(7) Texas A&M v (10) Ole Miss: Ole Miss beat Texas A&M twice, including by 26 at home in the last game of the year, but Texas A&M won 2 more games in conference. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida at home in their nine wins. In their non-conference, Texas A&M beat Iowa State, Penn State, Ohio State and SMU, but lost to Virginia, Memphis, Florida Atlantic and Houston all in relatively close games. Ole MIss really struggled in the conference with only a few wins against mid-table teams. In the non-conference they were undefeated, beating NC State, Memphis, UCF and Cal. Prediction: Texas A&M by 15. RIGHT: Texas A&M by 9.

(6) Florida v (11) Georgia: Florida beat Georgia in both games, both close games. And Florida won 5 more conference games. Florida lost 6 of their 7 conference losses on the road against a mix of teams, and they did beat Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama at home. Florida beat Florida State, Pitt, Richmond and Michigan, but lost to Baylor, Virginia and Wake Forest in the non-conference. Prediction: Florida by 2. RIGHT: Florida by 5.

(5) South Carolina v (12) Arkansas: South Carolina won at Arkansas in their only game of the year by 13, and won 7 more games in conference. South Carolina’s losses included 3 at home, and all 5 were against a mix of teams. They only lost 2 conference road games to Auburn and Alabama all year which is something. In their non-conference they beat Notre Dame, Grand Canyon and Virginia Tech, but lost to Clemson. Prediction: South Carolina by 12. RIGHT: South Carolina by 14.

March 15 Quarter Finals:

(4) Auburn v (5) South Carolina: South Carolina lost to Auburn in their only matchup by 40! The two teams had identical records. 4 of Auburn’s 5 losses were to the top 6, and 4 of Auburn’s 5 losses were on the road. They only played Kentucky and Tennessee once and lost both games. Auburn had a decent non-conference, beating Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Indiana, USC and a bunch of good mid-majors. Prediction: South Carolina by 4. WRONG: Auburn by 31!

(3) Alabama v (6) Florida: These teamns split the regular season, and Alabama. won 2 more games. Their 5 conference losses were all to the top 6 and 4 of those 5 were on the road. Their non-conference was a bit rough, beating only Oregon, and losing to Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona, but those last 3 are brutal games and they were all close. Prediction: Florida by 4. RIGHT: Florida by 14.

(2) Kentucky v (7) Texas A&M: Texas A&M won the only matchup between these teams at home in January. Kentucky finished with 4 more wins. Kentucky won 7 of 8 to get to the 2 seed with wins over the 1, 3 and 4 seeds. In their non-conference they beat North Carolina and Miami, and lost to UNC Wilmington and Kansas, and they played absolutely no one else. Prediction: Kentucky by 20. WRONG: Texas A&M by 10.

(1) Tennessee v (9) Mississippi State: Mississippi State won the only meeting of the year by 5 at home, and Tennessee won 6 more games in conference. Tennessee has been outstanding all year, losing only to Kentucky and South Carolina at home and at Texas A&M and at Mississippi State both of which are nasty places to play. Their non-conference was good but they did not beat the top teams, beating Wisconsin, Syracuse, Illinois and NC State, but losing to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Well, Illinois is a top team. Prediction: Tennessee by 10. WRONG: Mississippi State by 17!

March 16 Semifinals:

(4) Auburn v (9) Mississippi State: These teams split the season series and Auburn won 5 more games in conference. Mississippi State is playing for their lives, but on ther 3rd straight game. Prediction: Auburn by 12. RIGHT: Auburn by 7.

(6) Florida v (7) Texas A&M: Texas A&M beat Florida by 1 at home in their only matchup, but Florida won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Texas A&M by 4. WRONG: Florida by 5.

March 17 Finals:

(4) Auburn v (6) Florida: Florida beat Auburn at home by 16 in their only matchup, but Auburn won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Auburn by 10.

MID MAJOR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

American Conference Tournament. The American tourney is going to be a lot of fun. The 1-5 seeds are really going to be fighting it out and the 6 and 7 seeds also can upset the top 5. Memphis lurks in the middle, and are the likely tournament winner, despite losing 7 games in conference. Florida Atlantic is the other major dominant team, likely to be in the final. South Florida is in the weird position of being 16-2 in a pretty strong conference, and needing wins to get into the NCAAs. Beyond those 3, lots of teams with good histories and dynamics who can take people out. Very hard tourney to predict after the bottom 5 teams are out.

Who is Playing for What beyond the AUTOBID. Memphis, South Florida and Florida Atlantic are fighting to get into the NCAAs as at-large teams, and all three need good tourney performances to get in. Charlotte, UAB and North Texas still harbor small hopes of an at-large bid, and they along with SMU are angling for the NIT and CBI bids too. The bottom 7 teams are only hoping for the AUTOBID.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (14) UTSA over (11) Temple in the 1st Round, (9) Tulsa over (8) East Carolina in the 2nd Round, (5) Memphis over (4) UAB and (6) SMU over (3) Charlotte in the quarterfinals, and (2) Florida Atlantic over (1) South Florida in the final. AUTOBID: Florida Atlantic.

March 13 1st Round:

(11) Temple v (14) UTSA: Temple beat UTSA twice in close games, and they finished with the same conference record. All 5 of Temple’s conference wins came against the bottom 4. Temple beat Drexel and La Salle in the non-conference, and no one else of interest. 4 of UTSA’s 5 wins came OUTSIDE the bottom 4. In UTSA’s non-conference, they beat no one, but lost to a ton of more famous teams. Prediction: UTSA by 4. WRONG: Temple by 3.

(12) Wichita State v (13) Rice: Wichita State beat Rice at home by 21 just last week in their only meeting of the year, and they finished with the same conference record. Wichita State’s 5 wins included 3 against mid-table teams. In their non-conference, they beat Richmond, Saint Louis, Western Kentucky, and Southern Illinois. Rice won at Memphis and at UAB among their 5 wins. In their non-conference they beat UT Martin and lost to a ton of more famous programs. Prediction: Wichita State by 14. RIGHT: Wichita State by 7.

March 14 2nd Round:

(8) East Carolina v (9) Tulsa: East Carolina beat Tulsa at home in their only meeting of the year, and they finished with identical conference records. East Carolina has lost 5 in a row. East Carolina’s win over Tulsa was their best conference win, beating the 5 bottom teams in the other six. East Carolina beat a bunch of midtable small conference teams and lost to every major recognizable program they faced. Tulsa’s 7 conference wins included wins over Charlotte and South Florida, and in the non-conference they beat Loyola Chicago as their best win and won most of their other non-major non-conference games. Prediction: Tulsa by 15. WRONG: East Carolina by 5.

(7) North Texas v (10) Tulane: North Texas won both meetings between these two teams, and won 5 more games in conference. North Texas beat up on the bottom half of the conference, but their best conference win was Memphis. In the non-conference, they played a bunch of close losses to good teams and their best win was the opener against Northern Iowa. Tulane lost 7 in a row before the last game of the year, and their 5 wins are scattered across the bottom half of the conference. They also beat Memphis. Tulane actually had a good non-conference, beating a lot of small conference good teams and Cal. Prediction: North Texas by 1. RIGHT: North Texas by 10.

(6) SMU v (11) Temple: SMU won by 13 in the only game between these teams, and won 6 more games in conference. SMU is one of my favorite teams, but terribly inconsistent and losing all kinds of different games. SMU’s conference record includes some good wins and bad losses. They beat West Virginia and Florida State and a bunch of other teams in their non-conference. Prediction: SMU by 22. WRONG: Temple by 15.

(5) Memphis v (12) Wichita State: Memphis beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 36 on the road, and won 6 more games in conference. Memphis lost to 7 different conference teams, but won 4 of 5 at the end to get back to the 5 seed. And they looked awfully good recently with only 3 losses since January, all on the road to good teams. But their non-conference record is outstanding: They beat 7 major conference teams, losing only to Villanova and at Ole Miss. Prediction: Memphis by 20. WRONG: Wichita State by 5.

March 15 Quarter Finals:

(4) UAB v (12) Wichita State. UAB lost at home to Wichita State by 8, but won 7 more games in conference. UAB lost once to the 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds, along with two bad losses in conference. In their non-conference they beat Maryland, Drake and UNC Asheville, and lost 5 challenging games. Prediction: UAB by 10. RIGHT: UAB by 12.

(3) Charlotte v (11) Temple. Charlotte won the only game between these two on the road, and won 8 more games in conference. Charlotte’s 5 conference losses were to South Florida twice, Memphis, SMU and Tulsa. In their non-conference, they hardly beat anyone and lost to everyone well known. Prediction: Charlotte over Temple by 12. WRONG: Temple by 4.

(2) Florida Atlantic v (7) North Texas: Florida Atlantic won both games against North Texas in fairly close games, and won 4 more games in conference. Florida Atlantic’s conference record was outstanding with only losses to the 1, 3, 4 and 5 seeds on the road. In the non-conference they beat Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Charleston, St. Bonaventure, and Arizona, losing only 3 games including one to Illinois. Prediction: Florida Atlantic by 9. RIGHT: Florida Atlantic by 6.

(1) South Florida v (8) East Carolina: South Florida beat East Carolina on the road by 11 in their only matchup and won 9 more games in conference. South Florida only lost twice in conference at UAB and at Tulsa in the last game when they had the 1 seed locked. Their non-conference was not beautiful losing to 4 mid-majors of mostly good quality, but they did beat Florida State, Loyola Chicago and Northern Iowa. Prediction: South Florida by 19. RIGHT: South Florida by 22.

March 16 Semifinals:

(1) South Florida v (4) UAB: South Florida lost to UAB by 4 on the road in one of their only 2 losses. South Florida won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: South Florida by 15. WRONG: UAB by 10.

(2) Florida Atlantic v (11) Temple: Florida Atlantic beat Temple by 12 in their only meeting and won 9 more games in conference. Prediction: Florida Atlantic by 12. WRONG: Temple by 1.

March 17 Finals:

(4) UAB v (11) Temple: UAB beat Temple by 28 just 2 weekos ago in their only matchup, and won 7 more games in conference. Prediction: UAB by 9.

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The Atlantic 10 conference is really in 3 tiers, almost exactly by the day they start play. The top 3 start on the last day and one of them should win the tournament. Dayton is the favorite, even though they are the 3 seed. Richmond is highly motivated to prove themselves. Loyola Chicago Too. The second tier, Massachusetts, VCU, Duquesne, George Mason, St. Joseph’s and St. Bonaventure, are all basically playing for NIT seeding, and all probably think they can win this and get into the NCAAs. The third day, starting on day 1, has almost no chance in this torunament, lacking motivation of the post season. and facing better teams. This tournament really starts with the quarterfinals which should be fun.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (14) Saint Louis over (11) Rhode Island and (13) Davidson over (12) Fordham in the 1st Round, (9) St. Joseph’s over (8) George Mason in the 2nd round, (3) Dayton over (2) Loyola Chicago in the semifinals, and (3) Dayton over (1) Richmond in the final. AUTOBID: Dayton.

March 12 1st Round:

(10) La Salle v (15) George Washington: La Salle beat GW twice in the regular season and won 2 more conference games. La Salle’s best two conference wins were home against Massachusetts and St. Bonaventure and their other 4 wins were against the bottom 6. La Salle’s best non-conference win was against Drexel, and they lost to Howard along with Duke, Temple and Miami. GW lost 13 of their last 14 games in conference, beating St. Bonaventure late. Their first 3 wins were against good conference teams before the bad losing streak. GW’s best non-conference wins were over Ohio and Hofstra, and they lost to UIC and South Carolina. Neither team has anything to play for. Prediction: La Salle by 20. RIGHT: La Salle by 1.

(11) Rhode Island v (14) Saint Louis: Rhode Island lost to Saint Louis in their only matchup on the road, and only won one more game. Rhode Island lost 7 straight before beating Fordham on the last day on the road. 4 of their six conference wins were against the bottom 6, and they did beat UMass and Saint Joseph’s at home. In their non-conference they beat Yale and every decent mid major team from Connecticut, and lost to 3 major conference teams, Charleston, Brown, Delaware and New Hampshire. Saint Louis’s 5 wins came 3 against the bottom 6 and they beat Saint Joseph’s and St. Bonaventure. In their non-conference, Saint Louis beat Hofstra, Louisiana Tech and Wyoming, but lost to NC State, Vermont, Utah State, and Drake. Neither team has anything to play for. Prediction: Saint Louis by 8. RIGHT: Saint Louis by 3.

(12) Fordham v (13) Davidson: Davidson beat Fordham twice by 10 and 15 points in the regular season, but Fordham got one more win in conference. Fordham’s best 2 (Of 6) conference wins were over George Mason and Duquesne. Fordham had no remarkable non-conference wins, and lost to several mid major and small conference teams as well as St. John’s and Central Connecticut State. Davidson is on a 5 game losing streak, but all 5 were against the top 4 and at St. Joseph’s. Davidson had one conference win outside the bottom 6. Davidson beat Maryland, Charlotte, Ohio , and Miami (OH), but lost to Clemson, ETSU and Saint Mary’s. Maybe Davidson holds some CBI post season hopes. Prediction: Davidson by 12. WRONG: Fordham by 8.

March 13 2nd Round:

(8) George Mason v (9) St. Joseph’s: St. Joseph’s won the only meeting between these 2 by 2 at home, and they finished with identical records. George Mason beat both Dayton and Richmond in the past month, and they have a good mix of wins and losses otherwise. In their non-conference, George Mason beat Tulane, Toledo and South Dakota State, and they lost to Charlotte and Tennessee. By contrast, St. Joseph’s wins were stacked against the bottom of the conference. St. Joseph’s beat up on Philadelphia Jersey schools, beating Villanova, Temple, and Princeton in the non-conference. But they lost to Charleston and Kentucky. Prediction: Close game obviously. I think St. Joseph’s wins by 4. RIGHT: St. Joseph’s by 7.

(7) St. Bonaventure v (10) La Salle: St. Bonaventure lost at La Salle by 13 in their only meeting of the year, but won 3 more games in conference. St. Bonaventure lost the last 2 games to the last 2 teams in the conference right at the time they should be winning. I think that’s trouble, but this is a good team. They had a lot of wins against good teams and losses to bad teams. I think that means they will be up for the tournament. They beat Oklahoma State as their one good non-conference win, and lost to Auburn and FAU and Canisius. Total mystery team. They are slightly motivated by the NIT and may think they still have NCAA hopes, but they do not. Prediction: St. Bonaventure by 4. RIGHT: St. Bonaventure by 2.

(6) Duquesne v (14) Saint Louis: Duquesne beat Saint Louis by 15 at home in their only matchup of the year. Duquesne won 5 more games in conference. Duquesne won 4 in a row at the end to get up to the 6 seed. Most all of their losses are to the top 5 in conference. They beat Bradley, UC Irvine and Charleston, and lost to Nebraska, Princeton and Santa Clara in their non-conference. If they are hot will be a tough out. Duquesne is motivated by the NIT and maybe still think they have NCAA chances. Prediction: Duquesne by 16. RIGHT: Duquesne by 10.

(5) VCU v (12) Fordham: VCU won at Fordham by 15 in their only matchup and VCU had 5 more. wins in conference. VCU’s last 6 conference games were very tough and they lost 4 of 6. Before that they had only lost to St. Bonaventure twice and home against GW. In their non-conference they beat Samford and Penn State, and lost to McNeese, Iowa State, Boise State, Memphis and Norfolk State. VCU is highly motivated to have a good tournament after a disappointing end to their regular season for NCAA and NIT hopes. Prediction: VCU by 7. RIGHT: VCU by 7!

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Massachusetts v (5) VCU: Massachusetts beat VCU by 22 at home in their only matchup, amd the teams had identical conference records. Massachusetts lost most of their 7 losses on the road to a mix of teams. They won at Richmond in their best conference win, and only lost by 4 at Dayton. In their non-conference they beat West Virginia, South Florida and every conference leading small conference team from New England, but they lost to Harvard, Towson and Georgia Tech. Inconsistent! They will be highly motivated by NCAA dreams if they get to the later rounds. Prediction: Massachusetts by 2 in a close one. WRONG: VCU by 14.

(3) Dayton v (6) Duquesne: DAyton beat Duquesne by 10 and 16 in conference and won 4 more games in conference. Dayton’s four losses in conference all came in the 2nd half of the season, to the 1, 2, 5 and 7 seeds, all on the road. In the non-conference, they beat LSU, St. John’s SMU and Cincinnati, and they lost to Northwestern and Houston only. That explains their high NET and why they are likely to get an at-large bid. Dayton expects to get to the final and so can be upset in the earlier rounds. Prediction: Dayton by 15. WRONG: Duquesne by 8.

(2) Loyola Chicago v (7) St. Bonaventure: St. Bonaventure beat Loyola Chicago by 15 in their only matchup at home, but Loyola Chicago won 6 more games in conference. Loyola Chicago’s only 3 conference losses were home against Richmond, and at St. Bonaventure and VCU. They beat Dayton in their only matchup and played a relatively weak A10 schedule. In their non-conference, they beat Boston College and Central Michigan, and lost to Creighton, Tulsa, South Florida, Florida Atlantic and UIC. So some decent wins. Loyola Chicago is riding high and motivated by the NCAAs and they think they can compete with Richmond and Dayton. Prediction: Loyola Chicago by 4. WRONG: St. Bonaventure by 1.

(1) Richmond v (9) St. Joseph’s: Richmond beat St. Joseph’s by 7 in the 2nd to last game of the year last week, in the only meeting between these two, and Richmond won 6 more games in conference. Richmond’s three losses came at VCU and home against UMass, and the last game of the year at George Mason when they had already clinched the one seed. In their non-conference, they beat Charlotte and UNLV, and lost to Boston College, Colorado, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Florida. Prediction: Richmond by 9. WRONG: St. Joseph’s by 5 in the upset.

March 16 Semifinals:

(5) VCU v (9) St. Joseph’s: VCU beat St. Joseph’s by 4 in their only matchup, and VCU won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: VCU by 10. RIGHT: VCU by 6.

(6) Duquesne v (7) St. Bonaventure: Duquesne beat St. Bonaventure twice and had on more win in conference. Prediction: St. Bonaventure by 9. WRONG: Duquesne by 10.

March 17 Finals:

(5) VCU v (6) Duquesne: VCU lost at home to Duquesne in their only matchup of the year, and VCU won one more game in conference. Prediction: Duquesne by 4.

Horizon Conference Tournament. Almost anything could happen in the Horizon tourney, after the bottom 3 are eliminated in the first round (I predict). Oakland the 1 seed is only 4 games better than 8 seed Purdue Fort Wayne. Very hard to predict this tournament, but I will try.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (5) Northern Kentucky over (4) Wright State and (7) Cleveland State over (2) Youngstown State, and (8) Purdue Fort Wayne over (1) Oakland in the quarterfinals; and (5) Northern Kentucky over (3) Green Bay in the final. AUTOBID: Northern Kentucky.

March 5 1st Round:

(8) Purdue Fort Wayne v (9) Robert Morris: These teams split in the regular season, but when Robert Morris won it was at home on a last second 3. Purdue Fort Wayne had 5 more wins than Robert Morris, including several against top seeds. Purdue Fort Wayne didn’t really have a great non-conference win, but only 2 non-conference losses. Robert Morris has 4 wins against the 10 and 11 seeds and 2 wins against everyone else. Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne by 12. RIGHT: Purdue Fort Wayne by 15.

(7) Cleveland State v (10) IUPUI: Cleveland State has had the ultimate nondescript season. Almost exactly what you would expect from a mid-table small conference team. They did get 2 good wins home against Ohio and at Bradley. IUPUI has 2 wins in conference, at Purdue Fort Wayne and home against Detroit Mercy. In the non-conference they did beat Valparaiso but whatever But this team is not very good. Prediction: Cleveland State by 20. RIGHT: Cleveland State by 19.

(6) Milwaukee v (11) Detroit Mercy: Milwaukee beat Detroit Mercy twice by more than 15 points each game. Milwaukee has been the under achiever in the Horizon this year. They won 5 of 6 at the end, and still ended up with only the 6 seed. In conference, Milwaukee really doesn’t have a good win. Detroit Mercy beat IUPUI and is 1-30. Prediction: Milwaukee by 15. RIGHT: Milwaukee by 4.

March 7 Quarter Finals:

(4) Wright State v (5) Northern Kentucky: Wright State swept Northern Kentucky in the regular season. I was not impressed with Wright State this year, but they managed to get to the 4 seed anyway. They have three good players and nothing else. 5 of Wright State’s 7 conferfence losses were against teams above them in the seeding. Wright State beat a few mid-majors in the non-conference, and lost more. I saw Northern Kentucky live at Washington in Seattle and they were hard to put away. Northern Kentucky does NOT have a good win. Prediction: Northern Kentucky by 1 in an upset. RIGHT: Northern Kentucky by 2.

(3) Green Bay v (6) Milwaukee (highest seed remaining after the first round, likely Milwaukee): These 2 teams split the season series, and Green Bay has one more win in conference. Green Bay has been the overachiever all year long. Green Bay beat Wright State twice and all of the other 3 top seeds in conference once. Green Bay lost twice to Northern Kentucky for some reason. Green Bay’s non-conference was very unremarkable with their best win home against St. Thomas. Prediction: Green Bay by 9. WRONG: Milwaukee by 11.

(2) Youngstown State v (7) Cleveland State: The teams split the season seris, but Youngston State had 3 more win sthan Cleveland State. Youngstown State had 6 conference losses to a real mix of teams, both hom and on the road. They played no one in the non-conference with one good win at Ohio. Prediction: Cleveland State by 4. RIGHT: Cleveland State by 12.

(1) Oakland v (8) Purdue Fort Wayne: The teams beat each other on the road, and Oakland has 3 more wins than Purdue Fort Wayne. Oakland has 5 conference losses, 4 of which were against mid-table teams on the road. They beat Youngstown State twice. In the non conference, Oakland beat Xavier, which is a good sign for them. Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne by 6. WRONG: Oakland by 10.

March 11 Semifinals:

(1) Oakland v (7) Cleveland State: The two teams split the season series, and Oakland won 4 more games in conference. Cleveland State by 4. WRONG: Oakland by 3.

(5) Northern Kentucky v (6) Milwaukee: These teams split the season series, and had identical records. Prediction: Northern Kentucky by 2. WRONG: Milwaukee by 7.

March 12 Finals:

(1) Oakland v (6) Milwaukee: Oakland beat Milwaukee twice in the regular season and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Oakland by 4. RIGHT: Oakland by 7! AUTOBID!

Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Mountain West tournament is going to be a lot of fun starting with the quarterfinals. Tons of highly motivated, talented teams, all unsure they are going to make the tournament, though 3 of them are LOCKS (Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State) according to me, and Nevada should absolutely be in too. The other 3 (Colorado State, New Mexico, and UNLV) will all feel they need wins.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (4) UNLV over (1) Utah State in the semifinals. AUTOBID: Nevada.

March 13 1st Round:

(8) Wyoming v (9) Fresno State: Wyoming beat them twice and had 4 more conference wins. Interesting scenario as the two teams played each other in the last game of the regular season knowing they were to play each other in the first round of the conference tourney. Wyoming beat the 3 teams below them 6 times and also beat both Colorado State and Nevada at home early. Wyoming beat Charleston for their best non-conference win, but lost to Texas, Saint Louis, Weber State, UTEP and Portland. Fresno State had 4 wins, but all 4 were against Air Force and San Jose State. They played a few games at home pretty close, but lost. In the non-conference, they lost every game against good teams. Prediction: Wyoming by 4. WRONG: Fresno State by 4.

(7) Colorado State v (10) San Jose State: Colorado State beat San Jose State by 19 at home in their only matchup of the year and won 8 more games in conference. Colorado State had the worst conference regular season of the top 7, losing once to all of them and twice to Nevada, and also to Wyoming. But Colorado State had maybe the best non-conference in the country for who they are, beating Louisiana Tech, BC, Creighton, Colorado and Washington, and losing only to St. Mary’s. San Jose’s two conference wins were against Air Force, and in their non-conference their best win was UC Irvine and they lost a lot to small conference teams. Prediction: Colorado State by 25. RIGHT: Colorado State by 10.

(6) New Mexico v (11) Air Force: New Mexico lost at home to Air Force two weeks ago in a game that probably ended their NCAA hopes so this is a revenge game. New Mexico had the 2nd worst MWC season, losing to Air Force and Wyoming from the top 7. New Mexico’s non-conference was very weak, beating a bunch of good mid major teams, but no great wins. Air Force beat UNLV and New Mexico, both on the road, so they have upset capability. In their non-conference, Air Force played and beat no one of note. Prediction: New Mexico by 40. RIGHT: New Mexico by 26.

March 14 Quarter Finals:

(4) UNLV v (5) San Diego State: Maybe the best quarterfinal of Championship Week in the entire country. Both teams will REALLY want this win, maybe UNLV a bit more because San Diego State thinks they are in. NBA guards on both sides. These teams split the season sseries, and UNLV won one more game in conference. UNLV only lost 3 times to the top 7 on the road, but lost 2 at home to the top 7 and one to Air Force. In their non-conference they beat Creighton and a bunch of good small conference teams, but lost to Florida State, Richmond, LMU, Southern and Saint Mary’s. San Diego State lost on the road to all 6 of the other top 7 teams, and Boise State beat them at home. San Diego State had a great non-conference, beating Gonzaga, Stanford, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, Cal, Washington and Saint Mary’s, losing only at BYU and at Grand Canyon. Prediction: High level war, UNLV by 2. WRONG: San Diego State by 3.

(3) Boise State v (6) New Mexico: Boise State beat New Mexico by 8 and 10 points in their two matchups, and won three more games. Boise State’s 5 conference losses included 3 at home to UNLV, Nevada, and Utah State, and only 2 on the road at Utah State and Colorado State. So this team travels well. In the non-conference, they did not beat anyone great (Saint Mary’s?), and lost to Clemson, Virginia Tech, Butler, and Washington State. Prediction: Both teams are not certain they can get in the tourney, so this should be a major war. Boise State by 8. WRONG: New Mexico by 10.

(2) Nevada v (7) Colorado State: This is a huge game. Nevada beat Colorado State twice, and won 3 more games in conference. Nevada only lost to 2 of the top 7 on the road, plus a Wyoming loss and losses at home to New Mexico and Boise State. Nevada is on a 7 game winning streak. In their non-conference, they beat Washington, TCU and Georgia Tech, and their only non-conference loss was to Drake. Prediction: Nevada by 4. WRONG: Colorado State by 7.

(1) Utah State v (9) Fresno State: Utah State beat Fresno State twice, but only by four on the road. Utah State won 10 more games in conference. State had a great conference season, winning the MWC. Their 4 conference losses included 3 on the road agaisnt the top 7 plus Nevada beat them at home. They had a successful non-conference with a bunch of wins against mid major programs, losing only to Bradley. Prediction: Utah State by 22. RIGHT: Utah State by 12.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Utah State v (5) San Diego State: These two teams beat eachother on the road andUtah State won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: San Diego State by 6. RIGHT: San Diego State by 16.

(6) New Mexico v (7) Colorado State: These teamns split the season series and had identical conference records. Prediction: Colorado State by 10. WRONG: New Mexico by 13.

March 16 Finals:

(5) San Diego State v (6) New Mexico: These teams beat each other by more than 10 points on their home floors. Prediction: San Diego State by 10. WRONG: New Mexico by 7! AUTOBID!

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The Missouri Valley tourney is all about Indiana State and Drake. The two of them have distinguished themselves and in my opinion both are NCAA worthy, but likely only 1 gets in because of the bubble math. Bradley, the 3rd best team, is dangerous and could upset both of the top 2 because they are experienced and fully capable of it. After that Northern Iowa and Belmont are maybe dark horses, but their profiles are not that great. I would be absolutely shocked if Southern Illinois or any of the other bottom 7 win the tournament.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Missouri State over (8) Murray State in the first round; and (2) Drake over (1) Indiana State in the final. AUTOBID: Drake.

March 7 1st Round:

(8) Murray State v (9) Missouri State: Murray State swept the season series and won one more game in conference. Their NET ratings are similar so this is a tossup game really. Murray State has lost 4 of 5 and 7 of their nine wins were against the bottom 4. Murray State got beaten by nearly everyone on in the non-conference. Missouri State has lost 6 of 8 with their only 2 wins against the bottom 2 in conference. their non-conference included wins over Saint Mary’s and Sam Houston. Prediction: Close game, but Missouri State relies on their non-conference and wins by 2. RIGHT: Missouri State by 25.

(7) Illinois State v (10) Evansville: These teams split the season series, but Illinois State had 3 more wins in conference. Illinois State won 9 games in conference including 4 on the road. They beat Indiana State and Belmont, but mostly beat the teams below them. Their non-conference was very meh, and I saw them lose by 20 in the only 2 games I saw. Evansville has lost 7 in a row. Had some interesting mid-major wins in the non-conference, but not lately. Prediction: Illinois State by 4. WRONG: Evansville by 6.

(6) Southern Illinois v (11) UIC: Southern Illinois beat UIC twice, but only by 3 on the road, and they have 7 more conference wins. Southern Illinois has dropped 9 games in conference somehow. They lost twice to Drake, Bradley and Northern Iowa, and split with Indiana State and Belmont. Their NET rating is 107 which is very solid. Against the bottom half of of the conference they have been lights out. UIC has 4 conference wins and only 1 against the top 6. They have to play one of the top 6 in this game. I haven’t seen this team, but I am not picking them. Prediction: Southern Illinois by 7. UIC could beat them. WRONG: UIC by 2.

(5) Belmont v (12) Valparaiso: Belmont beat Valparaiso twice in the conference and won 9 more games. Their 8 losses include a variety of teams. Belmont’s non-conference was NOT impressive. Valparaiso had 3 conference wins all year – 2 over Illinois State and home against UIC – and 17 conference losses. They were not on TV all season so I have not seen them. Prediction: Valparaiso loses again. Belmont by 15. RIGHT: Belmont by 25.

March 8 Quarter Finals:

(4) Northern Iowa v (5) Belmont: These 2 teams beat each other on the road and had identical records. Northern Iowa has 8 conference losses to 8 different teams. And they have 10 conference wins over 9 different teams. Northern Iowa impressed me losing badly to Kansas. Organized. They did beat Richmond and Stanford in their non-conference. Prediction: Northern Iowa by 5. RIGHT: Northern Iowa by 5!

(3) Bradley v (11) UIC: Bradley beat UIC twice by more than 10 points and had 9 more wins in conference. Bradley only has 3 conference losses against teams not named Drake or Indiana State. They have a bunch of conference wins and a few puzzling losses. Bradley beat Utah State, Tarleton State, UAB and Vermont in their non-conference so they have some quality wins. Prediction: Bradley by 20. RIGHT: Bradley by 27.

(2) Drake v (10) Evansville: Drake beat Evansville twice, and on the road by only 3 points, and they won 10 more games in conference. Drake only lost 4 games in conference on the road against the 1, 4, 5 and 8 seeds. They are a conference juggernaut and I think they will win the AUTOBID. Drake beat Nevada whicgh is an outstanding win, and only lost twice in the non conference to UAB and SFA. Prediction: Drake by 24. RIGHT: Drake by 21.

(1) Indiana State v (9) Missouri State: Inidana State beat Missouri State by 22 at home and by 2 on the road. Indiana State only lost 3 times in conference, at the 2 (Drake) and 6 and home against the 7. In their non-conference they beat a bunch of OK mid major teams, and lost ONLY to Alabama and Michigan State which are tough games. Prediction: Indiana State by 12. RIGHT: Indiana State by 16.

March 9 Semifinals:

(1) Indiana State v (4) Northern Iowa: Indiana State beat Northern Iowa early in the conference season at home in their only matchup, and won 5 more games in conference. Indiana State is on a 5 game win streak, and lost 2 in a row before that. And they had a nine game win streak before that. Northern Iowa is a very high level team under consideration for the CBI or NIT, so this is the best game of the conference tourney week through March 9. Prediction: I do not like to pick against Northern Iowa in this game, but Indiana State by 2 in OT. RIGHT: Indiana State by 22.

(2) Drake v (3) Bradley: Drake beat Bradley by 7 and 8 points in their 2 games, and won 3 more games in conference. Drake is playing for their NCAA tournament lives and have to win this game for sure to get in. Bradley is an extremely competent mid-major team, with a number of high quality wins, and can definitely beat Drake. I don’t think Bradley can make the NCAAs with a win here and a loss in the final, but they are on the bottom end of the bubble if they do that and lose a close one in the final. More likely they lose this game and are a solid NIT team. Prediction: High level game, but Drake by 14. RIGHT: Drake by 2.

March 10 Finals:

(1) Indiana State v (2) Drake: These teams split the season series, and Indiana State won one more game in conference. Prediction: Drake by 2. RIGHT: Drake by 4. AUTOBID!

West Coast Conference Tournament. The design of the WCC tourney so clearly reflects the talent levels of the teams. Each day a new tier enters. I think this tournament is 100% as the seeds predict, with two possible exceptions the 6/7 game and the 1/2 final. That’s it. The favorites are going to win every game in this tournament otherwise.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (2) Gonzaga over (1) Saint Mary’s. AUTOBID. Gonzaga.

March 7 1st Round:

(8) Pepperdine v (9) Pacific: RIGHT: Pepperdine by 59.

March 8 2nd Round:

(6) Portland v (7) Loyola Marymount: These teams are indistinguishable. These teams split the season series, and had the same record. Portland beat Pacific twice, and Pepperdine and LMU onece, and did beat Santa Clara at the end of the year. LMU beat Pacific twice, Pepperdine, Portland and San Diego once. So that’s also basically the same. LMU beat UNLV in the nonconference which is their season win. Portland beat Wyoming. Prediction: I’m going with Portland by 5. But no one knows who will win this game. RIGHT: Portland by 8.

(5) San Diego v (8) Pepperdine: San Diego lost once to LMU and Pepperdine, and beat Santa Clara once. Otherwise every game went the directiuon you would expect in this conference. In their non conference they beat Arizona State. Prediction: San Diego by 10. RIGHT: San Diego by 5.

March 9 3rd Round:

(4) Santa Clara v (5) San Diego: These 2 teams beat each other on each other’s floors, and Santa Clara won 3 more games than San Diego. Santa Clara is both vulnerable and dangerous. Beat San Francisco last game of the regular season. Inconsistent and hard to predict. They have so many quality wins from the beginning of the year I think that shows through in this game, but definitely could lose as the loss to Portland shows. Prediction: This is the closest call of every game in this tournament. I’m going with Santa Clara by 2 in OT. RIGHT: Santa Clara by 25.

(3) San Francisco v (6) Portland: San Francisco beat Portland by 12 on the road and by 27 at home, and they won 6 more games in conference. San Francisco is undefeated in the WCC against everyone except Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Until their last game which they lost to Santa Clara. They should win this game. Prediction: San Francisco by 5. RIGHT: San Francisco by 21.

March 11 Semifinals:

(2) Gonzaga v (3) San Francisco: Gonzaga will be massively favored over whoever gets to this game from the earlier rounds. They just beat the 3 seed San Francisco on the road by 30 points. Prediction: Only question is whether they will look past this game. Gonzaga by 12. RIGHT: Gonzaga by 12!

(1) Saint Mary’s v (4) Santa Clara: Saint Mary’s beat Santa Clara twice, and won 5 more games in conference. Saint Mary’s is undefeated in conference with Gonzaga at home in their last game. Can Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga twice in one week? They already beat them once. But we will see. Prediction: Saint Mary’s by 17. RIGHT: Saint Mary’s by 14.

March 12 Finals:

(2) Gonzaga v (2) Saint Mary’s: No analysis required. Gonzaga wins this game. WRONG: Saint Mary’s by 9.

ONE BID CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

America East Conference Tournament. The America East tourney is all about Vermont, who should win it easily. Vermont did not lose to anyone playing in this tournament. UMass Lowell and Bryant have to play each other first, and the winner will have a chance as both of them are decent teams. I don’t think anyone else has a chance.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (6) Maine over (3) Bryant in the semifinals.. AUTOBID. Vermont.

(9) NJIT Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament

March 9 Quarter Finals:

(4) New Hampshire v (5) Binghamton: These teams split the season series, and had identical conference records. New Hampshire has lost 6 of 8 on a major skid. 5 of their 7 wins were against the bottom 4 teams in conference. They did beat Fairfield in the non-conference and played a difficult schedule. Binghamton won 6 of their 7 against the bottom 4, and the New Hampshire win was their best conference win. Binghamton beat seemingly every small college in New York in the non-conference, and lost any game against quality. Marest was their best win. Prediction: New Hampshire by 4. RIGHT: New Hampshire by 13.

(3) Bryant v (6) Maine: These teams split the season series in close games, but Bryant won 4 more games in conference. Bryant lost twice to the top 2 teams and once to Maine! Bryant played a very tough schedule and actually beat Florida Atlantic and Drexel. 5 of Maine’s 7 wins came against the bottom 3 in conference and until the UMass Lowell win in the last game their win over Bryant was their best conference win. I saw Maine in a full game at Minnesota, and came away impressed in their loss. Maine beat Central Connecticut, South Florida and Charlotte, which are three really good wins for an America East team. Prediction: Maine in the upset, by 6. WRONG: Bryant by 26.

(2) UMass Lowell v (7) UMBC: UMassj Lowell won both games in this series in non-blowouts, and had 5 more wins. UMass Lowell lost twice to Vermont and at the 5, 6, and 9 seeds away. Weird, and shows vulnerability despite their high NET. In their non conference they beat Georgia Tech and almost beat Arizona State, which explains their high NET. UMBC beat Albany twice and beat the 4, 5, 8 and 9 seeds once. Best non-conference game was over Lehigh. Prediction: UMass Lowell by 15. RIGHT: UMass Lowell by 5.

(1) Vermont v (8) Albany: Vermont beat Albany by 14 and 22 in their two games, and won 10 more games in conference. Vermont lost once in conference at 9 seed NJIT in a game I cannot explain, and won nearly all games by more than 5 points and most by more than 10. They should not lose in this tournament. Vermont did lose in the non-conference to good teams, and beat a few good teams too. Albany beat New Hampshire and NJIT twice and Binghamton once, and that is it. Albany actually had a good non-conference, beating a lot of similar teams. Prediction: Vermont by 20. RIGHT: Vermont by 3.

March 12 Semifinals:

(1) Vermont v (4) New Hampshire: Vermont won both meetings between these teams, and won 8 more games in conference. Prediction: Vermont by 20. RIGHT: Vermont by 7.

(2) UMass Lowell v (3) Bryant: UMass Lowell beat Bryant easily in both games between the two teams, but they finished with identical records. Prediction: UMass Lowell by 6. RIGHT: UMass Lowell by 6!

March 16 Finals:

(1) Vermont v (2) UMass Lowell: Vermont beat UMass Lowell by 12 at home and by 7 aon the road, and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: Vermont by 9. RIGHT: Vermont by 5! AUTOBID!

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. The Atlantic Sun tournament is full of teams I have not seen a lot of. Eastern Kentucky has ben out front all season, but they have shown a lot of vulnerability with 4 losses to a mix of teams. The other 3 favoriats are Lipscomb, Stetson and Austin Peay. The 9 seed Kennesaw State was the only other team that got my attention during the year but they have lost a ton of games in conference. Queens and Bellarmine are not eligible for the AUTOBID. Day by day, and game by game predictions below.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (8) Queens over (7) Florida Gulf Coast in the first round; (4) Austin Peay over (1) Eastern Kentucky. AUTOBID. Stetson.

(11) Central Arkansas and (12) Bellarmine Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament

March 4 1st Round: The ASun first round has the oddity that the 7 plays the 8 (and will play the 2), and the 9 plays the 10 (and will play the 1). Rewards the 1 seed.

(9) Kennesaw State v (10) Jacksonville: Kennesaw State swept the season series between these 2 teams, but I did not see them all year. They have lost 9 of 11. Jacksonville’s 5 conference wins were all at home, wtih the best over 4 seed Austin Peay at home. I did not see much in the games I saw. Prediction: Kennesaw State by 15. WRONG: Jacksonville by 6.

(7) Florida Gulf Coast v (8) Queens: These two teams split the season series. Florida Gulf Coast is on a 3 game winning streak heading into the tourney. They were close at Indiana and beat Florida Atlantic which is a great win. Queens is in their inaugural Division 1 season and not eligible for the post-season. Queens beat Fairfield, High Point and Gardner Webb in the non-conference, all of whon have good reputations as small conference teams. Queens also beat both the 1 and 2 seeds. Prediction: Queens by 2. RIGHT: Queens by 6.

March 5 Quarter Finals:

(4) Austin Peay v (5) North Florida: Austin Peay won the only matchup of the season by 4 at home. 4 of Austin Peay’s 6 conference losses were to teams seeded 1-3. North Florida has lots of losses to good major conference teams in their non-conference, and kind of a normal mid-table wins and losses mix in conference. Prediction: Austin Peay by 8. RIGHT: Austin Peay by 3.

(3) Lipscomb v (6) North Alabama: These 2 teams split the conference games, but Lipscomb was 3 games ahead with 11 wins. 4 of Lipscomb’s 5 conference losses were at the top half of the conference. North Alabama beat 2 seed Stetson at home in their best win, and will be competitive with Lipscomb. All they have is good losses otherwise. Prediction: Lipscomb by 4. WRONG: North Alabama by 2.

(2) Stetson v (8) Queens: Stetson split with Queens. Stetson won their only games with 1 seed Eastern Kentucky and 3 seed Lipscomb. 4 of their 5 conference losses were on the road at mid-table teams. Stetson beat a few good teams in the non-conference – Charlotte, Central Michigan, and UCF. Prediction: Stetson by 10. RIGHT: Stetson by 12.

(1) Eastern Kentucky v (10) Jacksonville: Eastern Kentucky beat Jacksonville by 16 at home in their only meeting. Eastern Kentucky’s 4 conference losses were at the 1, 2, 3 and 8 seeds. They lost a TON in the non-conference to really good teams with ONE decent win over Troy early. Prediction: Eastern Kentucky by 14. WRONG: Jacksonville by 2.

March 7 Semifinals:

(2) Stetson v (10) Jacksonville: Stetson beat Jacksonville by more than 10 in both games, won 6 more games than Jacksonville, and is about 100 places higher in the NET. Plus, until Jacksonville beat Eastern Kentucky, they hadn’t beaten anyone at the top of the conference. Prediction: Stetson by 18. RIGHT: Stetson by 1.

(4) Austin Peay v (6) North Alabama: Austin Peay won both games between these two teams, and won 2 more games. Prediction: Austin Peay by 7. RIGHT: Austin Peay by 6.

March 10 Finals:

(2) Stetson v (4) Austin Peay: Stetson won the only game between these 2 by 1 point, and won 1 more game in conference. Prediction: Stetson by 8. RIGHT: Stetson by 3. AUTOBID!

Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky tournament has a new boss Eastern Washington, unproven and untested. And it will be really interesting to see across the tourney if the seeding holds up. The 2 seed Northern Colorado is a definite threat, and whoever emerges from the early rounds will have a good chance. Interesting tournament for a bunch of very unknown low profile teams.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (5) Montana State over (4) Weber State in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID. Eastern Washington.

March 9 1st Round:

(7) Northern Arizona v (8) Idaho State: These two teams beat each other on the road, and they had identical conference records. 5 of Northern Arizona’s wins came against the bottom of the conference, but they did beat the 1 and 5 seeds at home. Northern Arizona’s best non-conference win was over Seattle U, and they lost a lot of games to more well known mid major programs. Idaho State beat Weber State twice, but otherwise all their wins were against the bottom of the conference. Idaho State lost a lot of games in the non-conference playing a very tough schedule, with no good wins really. Prediction: Northern Arizona by 2. WRONG: Idaho State by 8.

(9) Idaho v (10) Sacramento State: Idaho won both meetings between these two teams, and as a result won 1 more game. Idaho’s other 3 wins were at the 5 , at the 7, and home against the 8 seeds. In the non-conference, Idaho did beat UC San Diego which is a major upset, and no one else. Sacramento State’s wins came at the 5 seed, and home against the 4, 6 and 8. Sacramento State beat UC Davis and Kansas City in the non-conference, but lost to a ton of similar teams. Prediction: Idaho by 5. WRONG: Sacramento State by 8.

March 10/11 Quarter Finals:

(4) Weber State v (5) Montana State: These two teams split the regular season games and Weber State was 2 games ahead of them in conference. Weber State beat Saint Mary’s, Yale, and Wyoming in the non-conference. Weber State in conference dropped 7 games to teams all over the conference. Montana State beat Cal in the non-conference but otherwise lost a lot. In conference, it is a LOT like Weber State losing to everyone and beating everyone. Prediction: Hard to predict, but Montana State just beat them by 12 this week so Montana State. RIGHT: Montana State by 9.

(3) Montana v (6) Portland State: Montana beat Portland State at home, but lost to them by 26 on the road. Montana lost to Eastern Washington Twice, Northern Colorado twice, and their only other loss was on the road at 4 seed Weber State. So Montana’s worst game of the conference season was at Portland State. Montana did get a bunch of wins in the non-conference over teams like UC Davis and San Jose State, both of whom they played twice and beat twice. 7 of Portland State’s 8 wins came at home, with only 1 road win at Idaho. They did beat everyone in Portland except Eastern Washington. In the non-conference they started out with two nice wins over Air Force and Santa Barbara, but that was it. Prediction: Montana by 8, but Portland State could win this game. RIGHT: Montana by 6.

(2) Northern Colorado v (8) Idaho State: Northern Colorado won both games between these two teams, and also won 5 more games in conference. Northern Colorado lost twice to Eastern Washington and twice to Weber State, but beat Montana twice. Their only other 2 losses were at the 5 and 6 seeds in conference. They hada rough non-conference, losing to everyone but Air Force and a couple of lower Summit teams. Prediction: Northern Colorado by 20. WRONG: Idaho State by 7.

(1) Eastern Washington v (10) Sacramento State: Eastern Washington beat Sacramento State both times in conference, but only by 3 in the last game of the regular season. Eastern Washington won 11 more games. Only 3 losses for Eastern Washington in conference against a random 3 teams. Can be beaten obviously, but they were easily the class of the conference after getting beat by 7 major conference teams in the non-conference. Prediction: Eastern Washington by 16. WRONG: Sacramento State by 5.

March 12 Semifinals:

(5) Montana State v (10) Sacramento State: These teams split the season series, but Montana State won 5 more games in conference. Prediction: Montana State by 14. RIGHT: Montana State by 3.

(3) Montana v (8) Idaho State: Montana beat Idaho State by 14 and 16 points in their 2 matchups, and won 5 more games in conference. Prediction: Montana by 10. RIGHT: Montana by 14.

March 13 Finals:

(3) Montana v (5) Montana State: Montana beat Montana State by 10 and 19 points in their two games, and Montana won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Montana by 25. WRONG: Montana State by 15. AUTOBID!

Big South Conference Tournament. High Point has dominated this conference all year, with only Gardner Webb and UNC Asheville competitive. Whichever of them gets to the final will be a good challenge for High Point. As for the rest of the field, Big South teams have all played major conference teams and so they know how to play for the upset and the teams are solid. I just don’t see any of the non top 3 getting close to the AUTOBID.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (3) Gardner Webb over (2) UNC Asheville in the semi finals. AUTOBID: High Point.

March 6 1st Round:

(8) Radford v (9) South Carolina Upstate: These 2 teams split the regular season and had identical conference records. I thought Radford was a lot better than they ended up. Experienced guards. Radford’s conference wins included 2 over Longwood and 1 over Gardner Webb. In the non-conference, Radford beat a bunch of decent teams: Northern Colorado, North Carolina Central. South Carolina Upstate beat Longwood twice and Presbyterian, and had a big win over the 1 seed High Point. South Carolina Upstate beat no one in the non-conference. Prediction: Radford by 5. RIGHT: Radford by 7.

March 8 Quarter Finals:

(4) Winthrop v (5) Longwood: These teams split the conference season but Winthrop had 2 more wins. Winthrop has been dangerous all year against teams below them in the Big South. 6 of their 8 conference losses were against the 3 teams above them. In the non-conference they lost to the major conference teams but beat a bunch of decent teams. They should be a tough test for the 5 seed. Longwood lost a lot of conference games but they do have wins against High Point, UNC Asheville. Longwood won a ton of games aginst no one in the non-conference. Prediction: Winthrop by 2. WRONG: Longwood by 13.

(3) Gardner Webb v (6) Presbyterian: These teams split the regular season but Gardner Webb had 5 more wins in conference. Gardner Webb had a nice conference season. They lost twice to High Point and 3 times to teams at the bottom of the conference. In their non-conference they beat Weber State and lost to a ton of mid-major teams. Presbyterian’s 6 conference wins came 4 against the teams below them and they beat the 4 seed. Presbyterian beat Vanderbilt in the non-conference but that is NOT great. Prediction: Gardner Webb by 9. RIGHT: Gardner Webb by 1.

(2) UNC Asheville v (7) Charleston Southern: UNC Asheville’s 4 conference losses were 2 against the 3 seed Gardner Webb, at 1 seed high point and at 5 seed Longwood. In the non-conference they lost to everyone good. 4 of Charleston Southern’s 6 conference wins came against Radford and South Carolina Upstate. In the non-conference they beat no one. Prediction: UNC Asheville by 18. RIGHT: UNC Asheville by 5.

(1) High Point v (8) Radford: Radford lost both to High Point by 14 and 25 points, and won 8 fewer games in conference. High Point has been excellent all conference season, but one of their 3 losses was at home to South Carolina Upstate the 8 or 9 seed. They also lost at the 2 and 5 seeds. In the non-conference, they lost a bunch of games and UNC Greensboro was their best win. Prediction: High Point by 20. RIGHT: High Point by 14.

March 9 Semifinals:

(1) High Point v (5) Longwood: Longwood beat High Point at home by 2 just this week. High Point won the other game by 17, and had 7 more wins. Prediction: I don’t think Longwood can repeat the feat. Prediction: High Point by 14. WRONG: Longwood by 1.

(2) UNC Asheville v (3) Gardner Webb: Gardner Webb won both meetings between these two teams, but UNC Asheville had one more win in conference. Prediction: Gardner Webb by 8. WRONG: UNC Asheville by 9 in OT.

March 10 Finals:

(2) UNC Asheville v (5) Longwood: UNC Asheville and Longwood split the season series, and UNC Asheville won 6 more games in conference. Longwood playing for their 3rd straight upset. Prediction: UNC Asheville by 20. WRONG: Longwood by 26!

Big West Conference Tournament. The Big West conference is all UC Irvine. If anyone beats them it will be a major upset. The 2nd place team UC San Diego is ineligible and not playing in this tournament, and the replacement 2 seed UC Davis lost 6 times in conference. Hawaii is playing well, but only at home.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (3) Hawaii over (2) UC Davis in the semifinals. AUTOBID: UC Irvine.

(2) UC San Diego (ineligible), (10) Cal State Fullerton, (11) Cal Poly Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament. All the teams below UC San Diego move up one seed!

March 13 1st Round:

(6) Cal State Northridge v (7) UC Santa Barbara: These two teams beat each other easily on each othger’s floors, and ended at the same conference record. Cal State Northridge lost 6 times to the top 3 and 5 times to everyone else. In their non conference they beat UCLA and a whole bunch of the worst teams in America. UC Santa Barbara beat the bottom of the conference entirely, and also beat a laundry list of terrible teams. Prediction: These two are so similar I’ll go with Cal State Northridge by 4. RIGHT: Cal State Northridge by 3.

(5) UC Riverside v (8) Cal State Bakersfield: These teams split the season series, and UC Riverside won 2 more games. UC Riverside beat and lost to nearly everyone in conference to get to .500. In their non-conference they played a bunch of major conference teams and beat none of them. Bakersfield beat everyone in conference too, and beat almost no one in their non-conference. Prediction: UC Riverside by 10. RIGHT: UC Riverside by 5.

March 14 2nd Round:

(4) Long Beach State v (5) UC Riverside: Long Beach State beat UC Riverside in both regular season games, but the teams had identical conference records. Long Beach State is on a 5 game losing streak. Before that they were on a 5 game winning streak. In the non-conference they beat Michigan and DePaul and USC. Prediction: Long Beach State by 4. RIGHT: Long Beach State by 19.

(3) Hawaii v (6) Cal State Northridge: These teams split the season series and Hawaii won two more gmes in conference. Hawaii won 7 of their last 9, almost all at home. They played everyone at home in the non-conference, but beat no one of note. Prediction: Hawaii by 4. RIGHT: Hawaii by 7.

March 15 Semifinals:

(2) UC Davis v (3) Hawaii: These teams split the season series and UC Davis won three more games in conference. UC Davis lost to 6 different teams in conference, but won two on the road in the last week that were tough games. Playing well. They didn’t really beat anyone good in their non-conference. Prediction: Hawaii by 4. WRONG: UC Davis by 3.

(1) UC Irvine v (4) Long Beach State: UC Irvine won both games between these two teams by more than 10 points, and won 7 more games in conference. UC Irvine’s only conference losses were at the 2, 3, and 6 seeds. In the non-conference, they beat Toledo and USC, and lost close ones to Utah State and San Diego State. Prediction: UC Irvine by 16. WRONG: Long Beach State by 4.

March 16 Finals:

(2) UC Davis v (4) Long Beach State: These teams beat each other on the the road, but UC Davis won four more games in conference. Prediction: UC Davis by 10. WRONG: Long Beach State by 4. AUTOBID!

CUSA Conference Tournament. The CUSA tourney is all about Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech. No one else should come close to the final, and the final will be an all in or all out NCAA game. The only risk for either team before the final is if they overlook someone. I think Louisiana Tech gets revenge.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (5) UTEP over (4) Liberty and (6) New Mexico State over (5) Western Kentucky in the quarterfinals, and (2) Louisiana Tech over (1) Sam Houston in the final. AUTOBID: Louisiana Tech.

March 12 1st Round:

(8) Jacksonville State v (9) Florida International: Jacksonville State won both matches between thesetwo teeams and won one more game in conference. Jacksonville State beat Liberty twice and their best win was over Sam Houston at home. In their non-conference they beat Little Rock and Tarleton State which are decent wins. Florida International beat 5 teams in the middle of the conference once. In their non-conference they beat no one but had a very tough schedule. Prediction: Jacksonville State by 2. WRONG: FIU by 9.

March 13-14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Liberty v (5) UTEP: These two teams beat each other on the road and had identical conference records. I thought Liberty was really good at the beginning of the year, with wins over Charlotte, Furman, Wichita State and Vermont right at the beginning. But since then they haven’t been very good. Liberty did beat the 1-3 seeds at home in conference. By contrast, UTEP’s best conference win was the Liberty win. They also had a successful non-conference, beating Cal, Santa Barbara, and Wyoming. Prediction: UTEP by 6, but this game could go either way. RIGHT: UTEP by 9.

(3) Western Kentucky v (6) New Mexico State: These teams split the regular season serisk and Western Kentucky won one more game in conference. Western Kentucky’s .500 record includes only 1 win against the top 2 in conference. Western Kentucky won a lot of non-conference games but their best win was maybe Bowling Green? New Mexico State beat the teams tied with them and below them in conference, and in the non-conference beat no one. Prediction: Hard game to predict as two very similar teams. New Mexico State by 1. WRONG: Western Kentucky by 20.

(2) Louisiana Tech v (7) Middle Tennessee State: Louisiana Tech won both meetings of these 2 teams and won 5 more games in conference. Louisiana Tech has been the class of thge conference all year, with their 4 losses coming 2 to Sam Houston, and once to the 3 and 4 seeds. Louisiana Tech’s non-conference included wins over McNeese and Louisiana, and they had a bunch of close losses to better teams. I like this team. Middle Tennessee State’s 7 conference wins were all against the bottom of the conference. Their non-conference was pretty ugly, best win maybe Kansas City. Predictiuon: Louisiana Tech by 12. WRONG: MTSU by 3.

(1) Sam Houston v (9) Florida International: These two teams split their regular season games, but Sam Houston won 8 more games in conference. Sam Houston’s 3 conference losses came to the 2 teams at the bottom of the conference and at Liberty. In their non-conference they really beat absolutely no one and were kind of in the games against better teams. Prediction: Sam Houston by 20. RIGHT: Sam Houston by 19.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Sam Houston v (5) UTEP: Sam Houston beat UTEP in both games this year, and won 6 more games in conference. Prediction: Sam Houston by 17. WRONG: UTEP by 2.

(3) Western Kentucky v (7) Middle Tennessee State: These teams split the season series but Western Kentucky won one more game in conference. Prediction: Western Kentucky by 2. RIGHT: Western Kentucky by 31.

March 16 Finals:

(3) Western Kentucky v (5) UTEP: These teams split the regular season, and Western Kentucky won one more game in conference. Prediction: UTEP by 8. WRONG: Western Kentucky by 7. AUTOBID!

Coastal Conference Tournament. The Coastal tourney is very likely to be chaotic. The 1 seed, Charleston, has played a very weak schedule, and I think they are very vulnerable despite having only 3 losses. Each of the 2-6 seeds has good things on their resumes and could win the tournament. The 7 and 8, even the 9 and 10 seeds, are capable. Even on the first day I see two upsets. I’m still picking Drexel the 2 seed becasue I liked them in the games I saw, but could really be anyone!

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (14) Hampton over (11) Elon and (13) William & Mary over (12) North Carolina A&T in Round 1, (9) Campbell over (8) Monmouth in Round 2, and (4) UNC Wilmington over (1) Charleston in the semifinals. AUTOBID: Drexel.

March 8 1st Round:

(11) Elon v (14) Hampton: Elon beat Hampton on the road by 6 in their only matchup and got 3 more conference wins. Elon lost at home on the last day of the regular season to have to play on the 1st day. 4 of Elon’s 6 conference wins were against the bottom 3 teams in conference. Elon’s biggest non-conference win was maybe Holy Cross, so not good. Hampton beat the 5, 8 and 9 seeds in close games at the end of the regular season, and that is it. Hampton lost to everyone in the non-conference in a fairly tough schedule. Prediction: Hampton by 8 in an UPSET! RIGHT: Hampton by 1!

(12) North Carolina A&T v (13) William & Mary: North Carolina A&T won the only game between these two teams by 7 at home, and got 1 more win in conference. North Carolina A&T is on a nine game losing streak, and their only wins are 2 against Hampton, and 1 against the 9, 10 and 13 seeds. North Carolina lost to everyone in their non-conference. William and Mary beat Hampton twice and the 10 and 11 seeds once. In their non-conference they were very very below average. Prediction: William & Mary continues North Carolina A&T’s losing streak and wins by 1. RIGHT: William & Mary by 17.

March 9 2nd Round:

(8) Monmouth v (9) Campbell: Monmouth beat Campbell at home by 1 in their only matchup of the year. Monmouth has the classic 10-8 record, with all 8 losses on the road, and only 1 road win in conference at Elon to get the 10th win. But they only played 1 of the top 4 teams at home, meaining they only beat 1 of the top 4 teams. In the non-conference, they did beat a laundry list of small conference teams, and beat West Virginia real early in the year. Campbell did beat UNC Wilmington, Hofstra and Stony Brook among their 8 wins, and in their non-conference they beat absolutely no one. Prediction: Campbell by 4. WRONG: Monmouth by 23.

(7) Stony Brook v (10) Northeastern: These teams are cloones of each other, except Stony Brook won 3 more games in conference. Stony Brook won both games between these two teams and had 3 more conference wins. Stony Brook won and lost against teams all over the conference. They had a very hard non-conference schedule and lost a ton of games to good teams. Northeastern had a very weird conference season with lots of unpredictable results. In their non-conference they didn’t beat anyone of note and lost a ton of games to good teams. Prediction: Stony Brook by 3. RIGHT: Stony Brook by 10.

(6) Delaware v (13) William & Mary: Delaware beat William & Mary twice by more than 10 points and had 6 more win in conference. Delaware lost only 1 game to teams seeded below them in conference. They had a pretty good non-conference, beating Xavier and coming close in a number of other games against good teams. Prediction: Delaware by 18. RIGHT: Delaware by 30.

(5) Towson v (14) Hampton: Towson lost at Hampton in their only game this year, but won 8 more games in conference. Towson has been very inconsistent this year with some excellent wins and some puzzling losses. They did beat UMass, UNC Wilmington, Charleston, and Drexel. Prediction: Towson by 9. RIGHT: Towson by 11.

March 10 Quarter Finals:

(4) UNC Wilmington v (5) Towson: These teams split the season series, and UNC Wilmington won one more game in conference. Only 2 of UNC Wilmington’s 6 losses were against the top 4 teams. They beat Charleston twice and Drexel once. In their non-conference, they beat Kentucky and a bunch of nobodies. Prediction: UNC Wilmington by 4. WRONG: Towson by 10.

(3) Hofstra v (6) Delaware: Hofstra won the only meeting between these two by 5, and won 2 more games in conference. Hofstra lost twice to Charleston and once to Drexel, and had 3 other road losses to mid-table teams. They played a difficult non-conference and got wins against South Florida and High Point, and a bunch of good losses to good teams. Prediction: Hofstra by 2 in OT. RIGHT: Hofstra by 15.

(2) Drexel v (7) Stony Brook: Drexel won the only game between these two by 4 at home, so this game may be close. Drexel won 3 more games than Stony Brook. Drexel lost 5 games in conference somehow, at the 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7 seeds. They beat the 3, 4 and 7 at home, but only played the 1 and 5 in the losses on the road. In their non-conference they beat Villanova which got everyone’s attention, but they did lose several non-conference games. Prediction: Drexel by 12. WRONG: Stony Brook by 3.

(1) Charleston v (8) Monmouth: Charleston beat Monmouth at home in their only matchup and had 5 more wins. Charleston is on a 9 game winning streak, including wins over 2 seed Drexel and 3 seed Hofstra (both at home). Their only 3 losses were twice to UNC Wilmington early in the season and home against the 5 seed Towson. They do not have a good non-conference win, or a good non-conference loss. Prediction: Charleston by 3. RIGHT: Charleston by 24.

March 11 Semifinals:

(1) Charleston v (5) Towson: These teams beat each other on the road in the regular season, but Charleston won 4 more games. Prediction: Towson by 10. WRONG: Charleston by 5.

(3) Hofstra v (7) Stony Brook: Hofstra beat Stony Brook twice in pretty close games, and won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Hofstra by 12. WRONG: Stony Brook by 4.

March 12 Finals:

(1) Charleston v (7) Stony Brook: Charleston beat Stony Brook by 6 on the road in their only meeting of the year. Charleston won 5 more games in conference. Prediction: Charleston by 20. RIGHT: Charleston by 3! AUTOBID!

Ivy Conference Tournament. The Ivy tournament should be entertaining. The top 3 all beat some decent teams, and should be fighting it out in close games. Brown did beat 2 of the top 3 during the year. I have liked Yale all year.

Initial Predictions: Yale beats Princeton in the final. AUTOBID: Yale.

(5) Harvard, (6) Columbia, (7) Penn, and (8) Dartmouth Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament.

March 16 Semifinals:

(2) Yale v (3) Cornell: Yale and Cornell split the season series with two very close games, and ended with identical records. Yale’s extra loss was home to Brown. Cornell’s extra loss was home to Brown. Cornell beat Colgate, Lafayette and Lehigh as their best non-conference wins. Yale beat Colgate, Quinnipiac and Santa Clara. Prediction: Yale by 5. RIGHT: Yale by 12.

(1) Princeton v (4) Brown: Princeton beat Brown twice by 10 points, and won 4 more games in the Ivy. Princeton beat Rutgers, Drexel and Hofstra in the non-conference. Brown clinched the 4 seed with 5 straight Ivy wins, including over 3 seed Cornell and 5 seed Harvard. They have 1 game left with 2 seed Yale and if they win that look out top 3! Brown lost a couple of bad games in the Ivy conference, and are 1-4 against the top 3. Prediction: Princeton by 2. WRONG: Brown by 9.

March 17 Finals:

(2) Yale v (4) Brown: These teams beat each other on the road, and Yale won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Yale by 10. RIGHT: Yale by 1. AUTOBID!

MEAC Conference Tournament. The MEAC could be chaos, but I have seen so little of these teams. Norfolk State has tried to distinguish themselves, but they had 3 losses to random teams. North Carolina Central is the likely alternative as the best of the rest, with Howard also able to beat anyone in conference.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, entirely. AUTOBID: Norfolk State. Howard as the dark horse.

March 13-14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Howard v (5) Morgan State: These 2 split the season series and had identical records. Howard lost twice to Norfolk State, and once to the. 2, 4 and 5 seeds. Howard beat LaSalle and BU in their non-conference. Morgan State beat a mix of teams, including North Carolina Central twice, as you might expect from a 7-7 team. Their non-conference was really ugly. Prediction: Howard by 15. RIGHT: Howard by 13.

(3) South Carolina State v (6) Delaware State: South Carolina State won both meeetings between these two teams and won 3 more games in conference. South Carolina State lost 2 to Norfolk State and 1 game to the 2, 4 and 5 seeds. They had a very mediocre non-conference with lots of losses. 5 of Delaware State’s 6 wins came against the bottom four in conference, with one win over Norfolk State. Their non-conference was unremarkable. Prediction: South Carolina State by 10. WRONG: Delaware State by 13.

(2) North Carolina Central v (7) Maryland Eastern Shore: North Carolina Central won both meetings between these two teams and had 5 more wins in conference. They lost once to the 1, 3 and 4 seeds and twice to the 5 seed Morgan State for some reason. Their non-conference was not pretty, at all. Maryland Eastern Shore did beat Norfolk State, and beat the 5, 6 and 8 seeds once. Their non-conference was also ugly. Prediction: North Carolina Central by 8. RIGHT: North Carolina Central by 6.

(1) Norfolk State v (8) Coppin State: Norfolk State won the two games between these two. Norfolk State’s 3 losses in conference were on the road at the 2, 6 and 7 seeds, so they can be upset. Coppin State had one conference win, at home over the 7 seed by 3 points. They had one non-conference win over UMBC. Prediction: Norfolk State by 9. RIGHT: Norfolk State by 24.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Norfolk State v (4) Howard: Norfolk State won both meetings between these two teams, including by 19 points last week at home. They won two more games in conference. Prediction: Norfolk State by 2. WRONG: Howard by 6.

(2) North Carolina Central v (6) Delaware State: North Carolina Central won both meetings between these teams, and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: North Carolina Central by 2. WRONG: Delaware State by 13.

March 16 Finals:

(4) Howard v (6) Delaware State: Howard won both meetings between these two and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Howard by 5. RIGHT: Howard by 3! AUTOBID!

MAC Conference Tournament. The MAC tourney this year promises to be very interesting with the top 4 teams separeating themselves from the next 4 a bit, but each of the 5-8 seeds could pull an upset. Akron was the class of the league for a very long time, but have come back to earth more than a bit. Toledo has dropped a few games late too. I really like Central Michigan, but they lost 6 times in conference. Ohio has been solid, but just solid, all year. Toledo is likely to win this conference, but it could be anyone.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (7) Miami (OH) over (2) Akron in the quarterfinal. AUTOBID: Toledo.

(9) Ball State, (10) Eastern Michigan, (11) Northern Illinois, (12) Buffalo Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament.

March 13-14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Central Michigan v (5) Bowling Green: Central Michigan won both games between these two teams and won 2 more games in the conference season. Central Michigan lost to 6 different teams, 4 you might expect on the road and Ball State and Buffalo at home. Weird. In their non-conference they beat South Florida and lost to several other well known teams. Bowling Green had a very .500 team year, losing to bad teams and beating good teams in conference. They played a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule and won a lot. Prediction: Central Michigan by 2. WRONG: Bowling Green by 10.

(3) Ohio v (6) Western Michigan: Western Michigan beat Ohio at home by 2 in their only matchup of the year, and Ohio won 4 more games in conference. Ohio lost two to Toledo and once to the 2, 5 and 6 seeds on the road. Ohio’s non-conference was really unremarkable. Western Michigan had a very streaky season, beating and losing to everyone. In their non-conference they lost a LOT. Prediction: Ohio by 12. RIGHT: Ohio by 27.

(2) Akron v (7) Miami (OH): Akron lost at Miami (OH) in their only meeting of the regular season, and won 4 more games in conference. Akron’s 5 losses in conference came against all tiers of the conference, and they lost 4 of their last 6. In the non-conference, best win maybe Bradley? Miami (OH) lost to Toledo and Ohio twice and otherwise had a .500 season. Miami (OH) beat Vermont in their non-conference. Prediction: Miami (OH) by 4. Akron is not playing very well. WRONG: Akron by 12.

(1) Toledo v (8) Kent State: Toledo beat Kent State twice by 15, and won 6 more games in conference. Toledo’s four conference losses came home against Northern Illinois and at the 2, 4 and 5 seeds. Toledo beat Appalachian State, Northern Iowa, Oakland, and lost to a lot of conference leading small conference teams. Kent State beat none of the top 3 all year in conference, and their non-conference was OK beating South Dakota State, Fresno State, and some other lower tier mid majors. Prediction: Toledo by 19. WRONG: Kent State by 8.

March 15 Semifinals:

(5) Bowling Green v (8) Kent State: Bowling Green lost at home to Kent State in their only matchup by 6. Bowling Green won 2 more games in conference. Prediction: Kent State by 4. RIGHT: Kent State by 13.

(2) Akron v (3) Ohio: These teams split the regular season and had identical conference records. Prediction: Ohio by 10. WRONG: Akron by 3.

March 16 Finals:

(2) Akron v (8) Kent State: Akron won both meetings between these teams and won 5 more games in conference. Prediction: Akron by 11. RIGHT: Akron by 1! AUTOBID!

MAAC Conference Tournament. The MAAC tourney is fairly unpredictable in my opinion, as eachg of the top 7 have a real chance to win it. Quinnipiac won the regular season, but lost 4 straight in February to some of those 7 teams. Fairfield is next best for the AUTOBID and should be in the final, but also lost to some of those 7 teams. Marist and Saint Peter’s did not play anyone, Iona has the history, and I was impresssed with Rider and Niagara in the games I saw.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Canisius over (8) Mount St. Mary’s and (10) Manhattan over (7) Iona in Round 1, (6) Niagara over (3) Marist and (5) Rider over (4) Saint Peter’s in the quarterfinals; and (5) Rider over (1) Quinnipiac in the semifinal. AUTOBID: Fairfield.

March 12 1st Round:

(8) Mount St. Mary’s v (9) Canisius: These teams split the regular season series, and Mount St. Mary’s won one more game in conference. Mount St. Mary’s beat Marist twice and Quinnipiac once in their mixed conference season, but they beat no one of consequence in their non-conference. Canisius beat Quinnipiac by 20 early in the season, in their only win against the top half of the conference. In their non-conference they beat St. Bonaventure and Western Kentucky so maybe a bit dangerous with those 3 listed wins. Prediction: Canisius by 10. RIGHT: Canisius by 16.

(7) Iona v (10) Manhattan: These teams split the regular season games, with Manhattan winning by 17 just last week at home. Iona won 6 more games in conference. Iona has the wins and losses you would expect from a famous 10-10 team, beating everyone in conference and losing to them too. Iona beat Colgate in the non-conference. Manhattan’s 4 conference wins came against the 6, 7, 8 and 11 seeds. Manhattan beat Bryant and Central Connecticut in their non-conference, but lost every other game. Prediction: Manhattan in the upset by 10. WRONG: Iona by 3.

(6) Niagara v (11) Siena: Niagara won 2 fairly close games between these 2 teams in conference and Niagara won 8 more games in conference. Niagara lost 4 of 5 at the end of the year, but beat Siena in the 2nd to last game. Niagara has a TON of road conference wins, but their non-conference was ugly. Siena beat Rider and Manhattan too, and that was it in conference. They had 1 non-conference win by 2 over Holy Cross. Prediction: Could be an upset, but Niagara by 10. RIGHT: Niagara by 2.

March 13-14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Saint Peter’s v (5) Rider: Rider won both meetings between these two teams by 5 points in each game and the two teams had identical conference records. 5 of both teams’ 8 conference losses came against the top 3 in conference. Saint Peter’s racked up a lot of wins over not very good teams in their non-conference. I saw Rider fight in two tough road losses in the non-conference and was impressed, though they didn’t have any wins to show for it. Prediction: Rider by 5. WRONG: Saint Peter’s by 2.

(3) Marist v (6) Niagara. These teams split the regular season and Marist won one more game in conference. Marist is just on the outside of CBI consideration. Their 8 losses in conference are scattershot, and they didn’t win any games in non-conference of note with Bucknell being their best win. Prediction: Niagara by 4 in an upset. WRONG: Marist by 6.

(2) Fairfield v (7) Iona. Iona beat Fairfield twice in the regular season, But Fairfield won 4 more games. Fairfield too is outside of CBI consideration. They only lost 6 games in conference, but lost to Iona twice and Niagara twice as a part of that. Weird. They had a fairly poor non-conference, losing to most good teams, but did beat Yale. Prediction: Fairfield by 10. RIGHT: Fairfield by 5.

(1) Quinnipiac v (9) Canisius. These teams beat each other by 20 points at home, but Quinnipiac won 7 more games. Quinnipiac too is outside of CBI consideration. 4 of their 5 conference losses came on a 4 game losing streak in February. In their non-conference they beat Holy Cross and Central Connecticut. Prediction: Quinnipiac by 4. RIGHT: Quinnipiac by 24.

March 15 Semifinals:

(1) Quinnipiac v (4) Saint Peter’s: Quinnipiac beat Saint Peter’s by more than 10 points in both games, and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Saint Peter’s by 2. RIGHT: St. Peter’s by 2!

(2) Fairfield v (3) Marist: These teams split the season series, and Fairfield won 2 more games. Prediction: Fairfield by 3. RIGHT: Fairfield by 4.

March 16 Finals:

(2) Fairfield v (4) Saint Peter’s: FAirfield beat St. Peter’s both times in conference, and won two more games in conference. Prediction: Fairfield by 4. WRONG: Saint Peter’s by 5. AUTOBID!

Northeast Conference Tournament. The Northeast tourney SHOULD come down to a final between Merrimack and Central Connecticut State. Maybe Sacred Heart has something to say, but the rest of the conference cannot compete and will need a big upset. Stonehill and Le Moyne are not eligible for the post-season.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (2) Merrimack over (1) Central Connecticut State in the final. AUTOBID: Merrimack.

(9) Stonehill Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament

March 6 Quarter Finals:

(4) Le Moyne (ineligible) v (5) Fairleigh Dickinson: These two teams beat each other on the road and split the season series. Le Moyne had 1 more win in conference. Le Moyne got to 9 wins somehow, and beat Central Connecticut twice and lost twice to Merrimack. No discernable pattern in the rest of their conference games. They are playing for the only championship they can get because they are not eligible for the post-season. They had no wins and looked terrible in the non-conference season. FDU lost 5 of their 7 losses against the top 3 seeds. FDU did not beat anyone of consequence in their non-conference. Prediction: Le Moyne by 8. RIGHT: LE MOYNE BY 21.

(3) Sacred Heart v (6) Wagner: Sacred Heart beat Wagner twice and had 3 more wins in conference. Sacred Heart got to the 3 seed winning 4 of their last 5. Three of their 6 losses were to the teams above them, and they lost to the 4, 7 and 8 once. In Sacred Heart’s non-conference they lost a bunch of games. Of Wagner’s 7 wins, they beat the 2, the 4, and the 5 once. Wagner’s non-conference was utterly unremarkable. Prediction: Sacred Heart by 12. WRONG: Wagner by 3.

(2) Merrimack v (7) Long Island University: Merrimack was absolutely crusing and then lost their last game at Sacred Heart to fall to the 2 seed. 10 straight wins before that. Their other 2 losses were at Central Connecticut State and home against Wagner. Merrimack’s non-conference season was unremarkable. Only 6 wins on the year by LIU, including 3 against the teams below them. 0-4 against the top 2 who they have to play in this game. Prediction: Merrimack by 20. RIGHT: Merrimack by 6.

(1) Central Connecticut State v (8) St. Francis (PA): Central Connecticut beat St. Francis twice in the confrence season, including a 1 point win at home. 2 losses to Le Moyne and a loss at 2 seed Merrimack were the only times they were beaten. Best win in their non-conference was over UMass Lowell. St. Francis won 3 conference games, all at home, against the 3, the 7 and the 9 seeds. In their non-conference they did win two road games at Lehigh and at American, both of whom are very average teams. Prediction: Central Connecticut State by 25. RIGHT: Central Connecticut State by 9.

March 9 Semifinals:

(2) Merrimack v Le Moyne (ineligible): Merrimack won both games between these 2 teams in the regular season and won 4 more games in the conference. Prediction: Merrimack by 15. RIGHT: Merrimack by 10.

(1) Central Connecticut State v (6) Wagner: Central Connecticut State beat Wagner twice, but only by one point in each game. They won six more games than Wagner in conference. Prediction: Central Connecticut State by 25. WRONG: Wagner by 10.

March 12 Finals:

(6) Wagner v (2) Merrimack: Merrimack beat them by 16 twice and won 6 more games than Wagner in conference. Merrimack is also 150 places higher in the NET. Prediction: Merrimack by 10. WRONG: Wagner by 7! AUTOBID!

OVC Conference Tournament. The OVC Tourney is REALLY interesting for the 3 top seeds going for the AUTOBID. Both Little Rock and UT Martin are on FIRE, winning nearly all of their last 12 games. And Morehead State has the much higher NET rating and stats. All 3 tied at 14-4 in conference. Morehead State ended up with the 3 seed somehow which means they have to play an extra game. Little Rock has the 1 seed which means they do not have to play the other favorites until the final. The expected (2) (3) game would be a real battle as would the final. The 4 seed Western Illinois was 1-4 against the top 3 and I don’t think they can win the tourney but can upset Little Rock maybe? The only other team of note is the 6 seed who did beat almost everyone above them once in the conference season.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (3) Morehead State over (2) UT Martin. AUTOBID: Little Rock.

(9) Tennessee Tech, (10) Southeast Missouri State, and (11) Lindenwood did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament.

March 6 1st Round:

(6) SIU Edwardsville v (7) Eastern Illinois: The two teams split in the regular season but SIUE had one more win. SIUE won a lot of games early, but lost 6 of 9 at the end to fall to the 6 seed, and they lost to and beat nearly everyone being a 9-9 team. SIUE’s best non-conference win was home against Green Bay. Eastern Illinois won at UT Martin and at Little Rock early in the conference season, so they have shown they can beat the 2 and the 3. They have dropped a bunch of games in conference though all over the map. 5 of their 8 conference wins are against teams not in the tournament or seeded 8th. Eastern Illinois beat no one in the non-conference of any interest. Prediction: SIUE by 15. RIGHT: SIUE by 11.

(5) Tennessee State v (8) Southern Indiana: These two teams split the regular season with both games very close. Tennessee State did not compete with the Little Rock in the one game I saw, but could do better against the 8 seed. 5 of their 8 losses were against teams seeded 1-4. In the non-conference they beat NO ONE. I think they are upset vulnerable and the semi will be tough for them. Southern Indiana lost the last two regular season games at home against the bottom two teams in the conference but still made the OVC tourney as the 8 seed. Southern Indiana did win at Morehead State but their other four wins are against the bottom of the conference. Prediction: Neither team is really likable even in this game, but I’m going with Tennessee State by 9. RIGHT: Tennessee State by 14.

March 7 2nd Round:

(4) Western Illinois v (5) Tennessee State: These 2 teams beat each other on the road. Western Illinois had 3 more wins. Western Illinois was 1-4 against the top 3 seeds and 12-1 against everyone else. Their non-conference season was ugly with their best win beaing against Green Bay. Prediction: Western Illinois by 5. RIGHT: Western Illinois by 2.

(3) Morehead State v (6) SIU Edwardsville: Morehead State is the tournament favorite despite being the 3 seed. T’hey actually split with SIUE, and won 5 games more than they did in conference. Morehead State had a 3 game skid where they lost at the 1 and 2 seeds. They are higher in the ratings becasue they played a tough non-conference schedule, but won none of those tough games, so it is their conference record that matters. Prediction: Morehead State by 16. RIGHT: Morehead State by 15.

March 8 Semifinals:

(2) UT Martin v (3) Morehead State: These teams split the season series, and had identical records. UT Martin has won 7 in a row and 11 of 12, including a 6 point win at home against Morehead State. Their only loss in the last 12 games was at Little Rock, but that was by 20 points. Their four losses also include at Morehead State. UT Martin beat almost no Division 1 opponents in the non-conference, losing badly to every good team. Prediction: Morehead State by 4. RIGHT: Morehead State by 6.

(1) Little Rock v (4) Western Illinois: Little Rock won the only meeting between these two teams at home, and had 1 more win. Little Rock has been on fire, winning 12 of their last 13 games, beating everyone in conference, including a 1 point win at home against Morehead State and a 20 point home win against UT Martin at home. Their 4 conference losses came at the 2, 5 and 6 seeds and home against the 7 seed. Little Rock beat Tulsa and Ball State in the non-conference but also lost ao bunch of small conference teams. Prediction: Little Rock by 12. RIGHT: Little Rock by 25.

March 9 Finals:

(1) Little Rock v (2) Morehead State: These two teams only played once and Little Rock won it by one point at home. They had identical conference records with 4 losses each. Morehead State is about 70 places higher in the NET which makes them the favorite, but I think that’s mostly scheduling losses. Prediction: Little Rock in the upset by 4. WRONG: Morehead State by 14. AUTOBID!

Patriot Conference Tournament. Colgate should win this tournament. They have a 6 game lead over the 2 seed. Their only 2 losses were by 2 at home against Amerian and by 5 at home against Lafayette. There really isn’t much more to say. Boston University, the 2 seed, is under .500 on the year. Which ever team gets to the final against Colgate should consider it their championship.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Holy Cross over (8) Army in the first round; (5) Bucknell over (4) American, (6) Lehigh over (3) Lafayette in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID: Colgate.

March 5 1st Round:

(8) Army v (9) Holy Cross: Holy Cross only had 6 wins in conference but 4 of them were against the 2-5 seeds! Holy Cross beat Georgetown right at the beginning of the year and it seemed like a big deal. Army’s 6 wins included 2 against Holy Cross and 2 against BU for some reason. Army’s non-conference included a lot of bad losses to bad teams. Prediction: Holy Cross by 7. RIGHT: Holy Cross by 16.

(7) Navy v (10) Loyola Maryland: These teams split the series in the regular season. Loyola Maryland won 4 road games in conference, and that was it. So they can win an upset or two. Navy won twice as many games. Navy had one of the weirdest conference seasons: won 4 of 6, lost 8 straight, and won 4 straight. Navy has NO good non-conference wins. Prediction: Navy by 10. RIGHT: Navy by 16.

March 7 Quarter Finals:

(4) American v (5) Bucknell: American won both games between these 2 teams, who tied at 10-8 in conference. These 2 teams are so siimilar it is hard to pick between them. Prediction: Bucknell by 4. RIGHT: Bucknell by 23.

(3) Lafayette v (6) Lehigh: Lehigh swept Lafayette in the regular season. Lafayette won one more game than Lehigh in conference. Lehigh has 5 home losses and 5 road wins in conference and it makes a lot of sense that they are 9-9. Lehigh had a terrible nonconference against similar teams. Prediction: Lehigh by 8. RIGHT: Lehigh by 15.

(2) Boston University v (7) Navy: BU and Navy split the season series, but BU won 2 more games than Navy in the season. See above for Navy’s conference review. Boston University came out of nowhere to grab the 2 seed despite a NET below 250 and an overall record below .500. But BU’s wins in that streak were against the 2, 6, 7, 9 and 10 seeds, so don’t be too impressed. BU is easily the worst 2 seed in any conference this year in terms of in conference power. BU’s best non-conference win (and there were not that many) was over Merrimack. Not good. Prediction: Boston University by 10. RIGHT: Boston University by 9.

(1) Colgate v (9) Holy Cross: Holy Cross lost to Colgate by 20 and 30 in their 2 games. Colgate lost only 2 games all conference season both at home to 2 and 3 seeds American and Lafayette. But they beat them both on the road. The finished the regular season six games up and so will be everyone’s pick for every game. Prediction: Colgate by 25. RIGHT: Colgate by 17.

March 10 Semifinals:

(1) Colgate v (5) Bucknell: Colgate beat Bucknell by more than 10 twice and won 6 more games in conference. Prediction: Colgate by 18. RIGHT: Colgate by 3.

(2) Boston University v (6) Lehigh. BU beat Lehigh by 1 at home and by 2 on the road, and won 1 more game. Prediction: Boston University by 10. WRONG: Lehigh by 5.

March 13 Finals:

(1) Colgate v (6) Lehigh: Colgate beat Lehigh twice by 3 points in the regular season, and had 7 more wins in conference. Lehigh is a proud program and they looked good taking out BU. Prediction: Colgate by 2. RIGHT: Colgate by 19. AUTOBID!

SWAC Conference Tournament. I don’t understand the SWAC and I have watched some games. The 1 seed Grambling doesn’t seem that much better than the 8 seed Alabama State and Alabama State just beat them. I don’t see any teams that distinguish themselves. So I am going to ride the hot team – Alcorn State – with 9 wins in a row. Why not?

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (6) Jackson State over (3) Texas Southern and (8) Alabama State over (1) Grambling in the quarterfinals. AUTOBID: Alcorn State.

(9) Arkansas Pine Bluff, (10) Prairie View A&M, (11) Florida A&M, (12) Mississippi Valley State Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament.

March 13-14 Quarter Finals:

(4) Southern v (5) Bethune Cookman: Bethune Cookman won both games between these 2 teams, but Southern had 1 more win in conference. Bethune’s 7 losses include 4 to the top 2 in conference. The non-conference was ugly. Southern’s 6 losses included Grambling twice. Southern was the preseason favorite and beat Mississippi State and UNLV early. Prediction: Southern reverses their late swoon and wins by 15. WRONG: Bethune Cookman by 15.

(3) Texas Southern v (6) Jackson State: The teams split the season series and won one more game in conference. Texas Southern lost to 6 different teams in conference, and had no non-conference wins, let along good wins. Jackson State lost to 7 different teams in conference, and beat Missouri in just about their only non-conference win. Prediction: Jackson State by 20. Why not! WRONG: Texas Southern by 11.

(2) Alcorn State v (7) Alabama A&M: Alcorn State beat Alabama A&M on the road in their only game of the year, and won 4 more games in conference. Alcorn State had no non-conference wins, and their 5 losses were to 5 different teams. Alabama A&M had a very .500 record, beating a lot of teams and losing to a lot of teams. They beat no one in the non-conference. Prediction: Alcorn State by 15. WRONG: Alabama A&M by 12.

(1) Grambling v (8) Alabama-State: The teams split their season series, but Grambling had 6 more wins in conference. Grambling also beat no one in non conference, and their 4 losses were to totally random teams. Alabama State, in something of a miracle, actually had a good non-conference win which in the SWAC is really a miracle. They beat Merrimack! Prediction: Alabama State by 5. WRONG: Grambling by 6.

March 15 Semifinals:

(3) Texas Southern v (7) Alabama A&M: Texas Southern beat Alabama A&M by 16 in their only matchuyp at home, and Texas Southern won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Alabama A&M by 2. WRONG: Texas Southern by 7.

(1) Grambling v (5) Bethune Cookman: Grambling won both games between these 2 teams by about 10 points, and won 3 more games in conference. Prediction: Grambling by 15. RIGHT: Grambling by 12.

March 16 Finals:

(1) Grambling v (3) Texas Southern: These teams beat each other on the road, and Grambling won two more games in conference. Prediction: Grambling by 4. RIGHT: Grambling by 9! AUTOBID!

Southern Conference Tournament. The Southern tourney is all about whether anyone can beat Samford. Samford is an outstanding small conference team, and their losses in conference make no sense, though they will give confidence to everyone else. UNC Greensboro and Chattanooga are good teams, but they ghave to play each other and the winner will probably lose to Samford in my opinion. Furman is always dangerous and 8 seed Mercer has some good conference wins. VMI and the Citadel should lose on the 1st day for sure before more competitive quarterfinals.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, entirely. No lower seed wins the entire tournament. AUTOBID: Samford.

March 8 1st Round:

(8) Mercer v (9) The Citadel: Mercer’s 8 wins include wins against the 1 and 2 seeds, and they beat everyone from 5-10. In their non-conference they didn’t beat anyone of note. The Citadel actually beat Mercer by 2 at home, 1 of their 3 wins in conference (VMI and Chattanooga were the other 2). The Citadel beat Notre Dame and North Carolina Central, their 2 best wins. They had a lot of losses as well. Prediction: Mercer by 10. RIGHT: Mercer by 8.

(7) East Tennessee State v (10) VMI: 6 of ETSU’s 8 wins were against the bottom 3 in conference. They did beat UNC Greensboro by 1 in the last game of the year and that is their 2nd round matchup. ETSU beat Davidson in the non-conference, their best win. VMI has one conference win all season, home against The Citadel. That was their only Division 1 win. Prediction: ETSU by 22. RIGHT: ETSU by 32.

March 9 Quarter Finals:

(4) Western Carolina v (5) Furman: These 2 teams split the season series, and Western Carolina won one more game in conference. Western Carolina lost twice to the 1 and 2 seeds, and once to the 3, 5 and. 6 seeds. Western Carolina beat Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and McNeese in their non-conference. Furman beat 3 of the top 4 teams at home and lost to the other 12 by 2, at home, and they lost to all 4 on the road. Furman’s best non-conference win was over Belmont. Prediction: Western Carolina by 8. WRONG: Furman by 3.

(3) Chattanooga v (6) Wofford: Chattanooga beat Wofford by more than 10 points in both of their matchups, and they won 2 more games in conference. Chattanooga is kind of slumping, losing 3 of 5 at the end of the year to not great teams. Chattanooga beat Louisville in the non-conference, their only notable win 7 of Wofford’s 8 losses were against the top 5. They did beat 3 of them at home. Wofford beat High Point in the non-conference, their only win of note. Prediction: Chattanoooga by 10. RIGHT: Chattanooga by 18.

(2) UNC Greensboro v (7) East Tennessee State: The teams split the season series with ETSU winning in the last week. UNC Greensboro won 4 more games than ETSU in conference. UNC Greensboro picked up 6 losses in conference, despite a pretty high NET. They lost to Samford twice and Chattanooga which make sense, and twice to Mercer and once to East Tennessee State which do not. In their non-conference they beat Arkansas but lost to Vanderbilt. Prediction: UNC Greensboro by 12. WRONG: ETSU by 11.

(1) Samford v (8) Mercer: Samford and Mercer split the season series, but Samford won 7 more games. Samford is my stealth NCAA pick so they better win their conference. Samford has 3 conference losses, at the 5, 6, and 8 seeds. Weird. Dominated the top 4 seeds. They lost to Purdue and VCU in their non-conference and didn’t really play anyone else. Best win maybe Louisiana. Prediction: This is the game Samford has to get past, and I think they will. Prediction: Samford by 4. RIGHT: Samford by 13.

March 10 Semifinals:

(1) Samford v (5) Furman: These teams split the season series and Samford won 5 more games than Furman. Prediction: Samford by 4. RIGHT: Samford by 7.

(3) Chattanooga v (7) East Tennessee State: Chattanooga won both matchups between these teams, and won 4 more games. Prediction: Chattanooga by 14. WRONG: ETSU BY 1 OT.

March 11 Finals:

(1) Samford v (7) East Tennessee State: Samford won both meetings between these 2 teams, and won 7 more games in conference. Prediction: Samford by 10. RIGHT: Samford by 7! AUTOBID!

Southland Conference Tournament. The Southland tourney is all about whether anyone can. beat McNeese. The only team that did all year was the 5 seed SE Louisiana, by 3 at home. The 2, 3 and 4 sees are the best of the rest, but shouldn’t threaten McNeese. Texas A&M Commerce is not eligible for the post season. If they win the tournament, the AUTOBID goes to McNeese the regular season champion.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (7) Commerce over (6) Northwestern State and (8) New Orleans over (5) Southeast Louisiana in the 1st Round, (8) New Orleans over (4) Lamar in the 2nd round, (3) NIcholls over (2) Corpus Christi in the semifinals. AUTOBID: McNeese.

(9) Houston Christian, (10) Incarnate Word Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament

March 10 1st Round:

(6) Northwestern State v (7) Texas A&M-Commerce: These two teams just played each other with Texas A&M-Commerce winning at home. Northwestern State did beat them at home, so they split. Northwestern State got one more win in conference. All 6 of Northwestern State’s other wins were against the bottom 3 teams in conference. Northwestern State lost every game in the non-conference just about to lots of fairly tough teams. Texas A&M beat the 5 seed as well as Northwestern State as their best conference wins. Commerce beat St. Joseph’s and Northern Colorado so they can beat good teams. Prediction: Texas A&M Commerce by 12. RIGHT: Texas A&M Commerce by 5.

(5) Southeast Louisiana v (8) New Orleans: SE Louisiana beat New Orleans both times in relatively close games, and had 6 more wins in conference. 7 of their 8 losses were to the top 4. In non-conference they didn’t beat anyone of note and only a few tough games. New Orleans 4 wins came at the 10 seed, and home against the 2, the 7 and the 9 seeds. They didn’t beat anyone in the non-conference. Prediction: New Orleans by 1 in the upset. RIGHT: New Orleans by 12.

March 11 2nd Round:

(4) Lamar v (8) New Orleans: Lamar beat New Orleans by 25 and 22 points in their 2 games, and had 8 more wins. Lamar had a funny conference season, losing 4 to the top 2 and then losing at the 9 and 10 seeds for their 6 losses. In non-conference they stacked up a ton of losses to all levels of teams. Prediction: New Orleans by 4. RIGHT: Lamar by 14.

(3) Nicholls v (7) Texas A&M Commerce: Nicholls won both games between these two 2 teams and won 7 more games in conference. Nicholls 5 losses were 2 to McNeese, 2 to Lamar, and 1 to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. In their non-conference they beat LSU and played several major conference teams well. Prediction: Nicholls by 5. RIGHT: Nicholls by 21.

March 12 Semifinals:

(2) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi v (3) Nicholls: These teams split the regular season games, and Corpus Christi won one more game in conference. Corpus Christi lost twice to McNeese, once to 3 seed Nicholls and once to 8 seed New Orleans. They beat almost no one in their non-conference. Prediction: Nicholls by 4. RIGHT: Nicholls by 8.

(1) McNeese v (4) Lamar: McNeese won both games between these teams and won 5 more games in conference. McNeese won the regular season by 2-3 games, with their only loss by 3 at SE Louisiana the 5 seed. They beat VCU, UAB, UT Martin, Michigan and a few other teams, and only lost to Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina in non-conference. Basically there is no reason they shouldn’t win this tourney. Prediction: McNeese by 18. RIGHT: McNeese by 19.

March 13 Finals:

(1) McNeese v (3) Nicholls: McNeese beat Nicholls by 21 and 27 in their two games, and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: McNeese by 24. RIGHT: McNeese by 16! AUTOBID!

Summit Conference Tournament. The Summit tourney is about whether South Dakota State is truly separated from the rest of the field or not. There is a LOT of parity in this league from 1-9. Kansas City has been on fire abnd should reach the final against South Dakota State on an 10 game win streak. The only otgher team with a chance to win the tourney is St. Thomas, and they are ineligible for the NCAAs and have 7 losses in conference.

Initial Predictions: Chalk. As the seeds would predict, except (9) Oral Roberts over (8) South Dakota in the first round. AUTOBID: South Dakota State.

March 8 1st Round:

(8) South Dakota v (9) Oral Roberts: These teams split the season series and had near identical records. South Dakota’s best conference win was against the 4 seed St. Thomas. In their non-conference they beat no one of note. Oral Roberts lost 7 straight to finish the year, and 4 of their 5 wins were over the bottom of the conference. In the non-conference Oral Roberts beat Tulsa and Texas Southern. Prediction: Oral Roberts by 15. RIGHT: Oral Roberts by 15!

March 9-10 Quarter Finals:

(4) St. Thomas (ineligible) v (5) North Dakota State: St. Thomas is ineligible for the post-season so this is their NCAA tournament. These teams split the season series and St. Thomas had 1 more conference win. St. Thomas lost to South Dakota State twice and beat Kansas City twice, and had a mix of losses and wins otherwise. St. Thomas almost beat Marquette and Cal in the non-conference, but lost. North Dakota State beat and lost to just about everyone in conference. Their non-conference was unremarkable. Prediction: St. Thomas by 15. RIGHT: St. Thomas by 10.

(3) North Dakota v (6) Omaha: These teams crushed. each other at home. 4 of North Dakota’s 6 losses were to the top 4 in conference. North Dakota got quite a few wins in the non-conference against terrible teams. Omaha’s best win was over North Dakota on the conference season. Omaha beat Steton in the non-conference which is an OK win. Prediction: North Dakota by 10. WRONG: Omaha by 1.

(2) Kansas City v (7) Denver: Kansas City beat Denver twice by 15 points, and won 4 more games in conference. Denver lost 8 of their last 10 in conference, but they did beat a couple of the top teams in conference. Denver beat no one good in their non-conference. Kansas City lost to St. Thomas and North Dakota State twice, and only lost once against the bottom of the conference. Kansas City lost to a bunch of good teams in their non-conference and won none. Prediction: Hot team against cold team. Kansas City by 25. WRONG: Denver by 1.

(1) South Dakota State v (9) Oral Roberts: South Dakota State is not that much better than the 9 seed Oral Roberts and lost to them in the regular season on the road, and beat them at home. But they did finish 12-4, winning 7 more games in conference, losing to the 3, 5, 7 and 9 seeds once. Their non-conference was not impressive, losing mostly to similar teams from other conferences. Best win maybe Towson? Prediction: Oral Roberts is a dangerous 9 seed, if there is such a thing, but South Dakota State by 4. RIGHT: South Dakota State by 15.

March 11 Semifinals:

(1) South Dakota State v (4) St. Thomas (ineligible): South Dakota State won both games in the regular season and won 5 more conference games. Prediction: South Dakota State by 10. RIGHT: South Dakota State by 10!

(6) Omaha v (7) Denver: These teams beat each other on the road, and Omaha had 1 more win than Denver. Prediction: Omaha by 2. WRONG: Denver won.

March 12 Finals:

(1) South Dakota State v (7) Denver: Prediction: South Dakota State by 15. RIGHT: South Dakota State by 8.

Sun Belt Conference Tournament. The Sun Belt tourney is all about the James Madison v Appalachian State final which would be a real fight. Troy is the 3rd best team, but their record is spotty and the are quite a bit down the rankings from the top 2. I don’t think Arkansas State teh 4 seed is a real threat. The 5 and 6 seeds Louisiana and Southern Miss have pulled off some nice wins this year and if they get hot could threaten the top 3. I’ll be shocked if ahyone below the top 6 gets to the semifinals.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (9) Georgia Southern over (8) South Alabama in the first round; (5) Louisiana over (4) Arkansas State in the quarterfinals; and (2) James Madison over (1) Appalachian State in the final. AUTOBID: James Madison.

March 5 1st Round:

(11) Texas State v. (14) Old Dominion: These 2 teams did not play in the conference this year. Texas State is on a 3 game win streak including a win over 3 seed Troy at home. 6 of Texas State’s 7 conference wins were at home. They did have a few decent wins in the non-conference, including Sam Houston on the road. Old Dominion has only 3 conference wins all year, and have lost 8 of 9 with only 1 win over 13 seed Coastal Carolina at home. Old Dominion beat both Drexel and Temple at home as their best wins, but otherwise it was miserable. I have Texas State about 100 places above Old Dominion in my ranking. Prediction: Texas State by 18. RIGHT: Texas State by 9.

(12) UL Monroe v (13) Coastal Carolina: UL Monroe won the only matchup between these teams by 4 at home, and UL Monroe has 1 more win in conference than Coastal Carolina. But UL Monroe’s conference wins are far better. Coastal Carolina’s best conference win was over 8 seed Georgia State at home. Prediction: UL Monroe by 12. WRONG: Coastal Carolina by 4.

March 7 2nd Round:

(8) South Alabama v (9) Georgia Southern: Both teams finished 8-10 in conference. South Alabama won the only meeting between the two teams at home by 13. I had South Alabama about 40 spots above Georgia Southern until the end of the year. South Alabama has won 7 of 9 going into the tournament, and they did have an early win against 3 seed Troy their best conference win. Georgia Southern won 3 of their last 4 after a 6 game losing streak. They had a brutal but tough learning experience 0-12 non-conference against a bunch of good teams. Prediction: Georgia Southern bets payback for their very tough non-conference season and gets revenge, winning by 5. RIGHT: Georgia Southern by 5!

(7) Georgia State v (10) Marshall: The teams split the season series and Georgia State won one more game than Marshall in conference. I never saw Georgia State this year. They beat a good Little Rock team twice for their best wins in non-conference. Marshall is on a 7 game conference losing streak entering the tournament. Should be a close game. Prediction: Georgia State by 4. WRONG: Marshall by 12.

(6) Southern Miss v (11) Texas State: These 2 teams split the 2 games they played, but Southern Miss had 2 more wins in conference. Southern Misss is a wildcard. They have a lot of bad losses, but they have beaten the 2-5 seeds once and haven’t played 1 seed Appalachian State. So they are a dangerous team in the tournament. Prediction: Texas State by 2. RIGHT: Texas State by 16.

(5) Louisiana v (13) Coastal Carolina: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina by 8 in their only matchup of the year and won 5 more games in conference. Louisiana beat the 4 seed Arkansas State twice, but otherwise don’t have wins against the top of the conference. Louisiana have some good wins on their schedule and so might pull an upset or two. Prediction: Louisiana by 18. RIGHT: Louisiana by 14.

March 9 Quarter Finals:

(4) Arkansas State v (5) Louisiana: Louisiana beat Arkansas Sstate twice in close games, but Arkansas State won one more game. Arkansas State is having a really good year. They lost a bunch of tough games in the non-conference, but beat UAB and Louisville which are good wins. They beat Troy twice and clinched the 4 seed just below the top 3. Play Appalachian State in their last regular season game. Prediction: Louisiana by 6. WRONG: Arkansas State by 27.

(3) Troy v (11) Texas State: These two teams split the season series, and Troy won 6 more games in conference. Troy beat Appalachian State and didn’t play James Madison. Their 5 losses are all against teams below them in conference. Troy’s only good win is the Appalachian State win and they lost a bunch of games to good teams. Prediction: Troy by 3. WRONG: Texas State by 6.

(2) James Madison v (10) Marshall: James Madison beat Marshall by 15 and 28 points in their two games, and won 8 more games in conference. James Madison’s 3 losses in conference were 2 with Appalachian State and at 6 seed Southern Miss by 10. Most of their conference wins have been by more than 10 points. Other than the famous Michigan State win, they don’t have any really good non-conference wins. Prediction: James Madison by 20. RIGHT: James Madison by 27.

(1) Appalachian State v (9) Georgia Southern: Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern twice in very close games, and won 8 more games in conference. Appalachian State lost only 2 games in conference all year – one at the 3 seed Troy by 4 points and the other at Texas State by 7. They are the favorites to win the conference. Prediction: Appalachian State by 3. RIGHT: Appalachian State by 5.

March 10 Semifinals:

(1) Appalachian State v (4) Arkansas State: Appalachian State beat ARkansas State by 23 in their only matchup of the year, the last regular season game just this week, and they won 5 more games. Prediction: Appalachian State by 9. WRONG: Arkansas State by 2.

(2) James Madison v (11) Texas State: James Madison beat Texas State by 17 in their only matchup, and won 8 more games in conference. Prediction: James Madison by 14. RIGHT: James Madison by 5.

March 11 Finals:

(2) James Madison v (4) Arkansas State: James Madison beat Arkansas State by 4 on the road in their only matchup and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: James Madison by 2. RIGHT: James Madison by 20. AUTOBID.

WAC Conference Tournament. This is Grand Canyon’s tournament to lose. Tarleton State is ineligible for the post-season, so if they play in the final Grand Canyon advances. The only other team with a chance in my view is Seattle U. The others are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Initial Predictions: As the seeds would predict, except (7) Abilene Christian over (6) Stephen F. Austin in the 1st Round. AUTOBID: Grand Canyon.

(9) Utah Tech, (10) Southern Utah, (11) UT Rio Grande Valley Did Not Qualify for Conference Tournament.

March 13 1st Round:

(6) Stephen F. Austin v (7) Abilene Christian: These two teams beat each other on the road and had identical conference records. Stephen F. Austin lost all 4 games to the top 2. They beat Drake in their non-conference which is quite the win. Abilene Christian beat Grand Canyon at home. Best non-conference win was Oklahoma State. Prediction: These two teams are very similar. Abilene Christian won 7 of 8 late so Abilene Christian by 4. WRONG: Stephen F. Austin by 3.

(5) Utah Valley State v (8) California Baptist: Utah Valley State won both games between these 2 teams and won 3 more games in conference. Utah Valley State’s best conference win was over Tarleton. In their non-conference they beat Weber State, Southern Miss and Sam Houston. Cal Baptist lost 8 of 9 to finish the year, with their conference wins mostly over the bottom of the conference. Best non-conference win maybe St. Thomas? Prediction: Utah Valley by 9. WRONG: Cal Baptist by 11.

March 14 2nd Round:

(4) Seattle U v (8) California Baptist: Seattle U won both games between these 2, but only by 1 and 2 points. Seattle U won 3 more games in conference. Seattle U faded hard at the end, but did get a win over Grand Canyon early in conference. They beat Louisiana Tech and UC San Diego, and almost beat Washington in the battle of Seattle. Prediction: Seattle U by 1. RIGHT: Seattle U by 24.

(3) UT Arlington v (6) Stephen F. Austin: These teams split the season series, but UT Arlingon won 3 more games in conference. UT Arlington has won 6 straight, but lost all four to the top 2 before that. They really didn’t beat or compete with anyone good in their non-conference. Prediction: UT Arlington by 9. RIGHT: UT Arlington by 31.

March 15 Semifinals:

(2) Tarleton State (ineligible) v (3) UT Arlington: Tarleton State won both games between these two teams and won 3 more games in conference. Tarleton State is ineligible for the tourney so this is their big tournament. Tarleton State split with Grand Canyon and their other 3 losses are to really random teams. In their non-conference they didn’t really beat anyone good and were crushed by good teams. Prediction: Tarleton State by 1. WRONG: UT Arlington by 3.

(1) Grand Canyon v (4) Seattle U: These teams beat each other by 7 each at home, and Grand Canyon won 6 more games in conference. Grand Canyon’s only conference losses were at the 2, 3 and 7 seeds. In their non-conference they beat San Francisco, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech and SAN DIEGO STATE, and they almost beat South Carolina. Prediction: Grand Canyon by 15. RIGHT: Grand Canyon by 8.

March 16 Finals:

(1) Grand Canyon v (3) UT Arlington: Grand Canyon won both meetings between these teams by 7 points and won 4 more games in conference. Prediction: Grand Canyon by 20.

TEAM BY TEAM All team analyses as of last game seen. Number of games and top 5 non-conference and top 5 conference games seen in parentheses.

NCAA Champion

Houston. You just do NOT want to play them.
Prediction: 1st Big 12; AUTOBID; 1 Seed; CHAMPION!
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 15-3 in the Big 12 which is amazing.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 1 seed. Again, nasty to play against them. Eliminated by Iowa State in the Big 12 Final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Houston is a 1 seed even if they lose to TCU in the Big 12 quarterfinals. They did lose to Iowa State and they still are a 1 seed.
Stats (3/9): 1st Big 12, Record 28-3 (15-3), NET 1 (12-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 1 (SoS 22), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Towson; 4-0 win neutral Utah; 5-0 win neutral Dayton; 7-0 win at Xavier; 10-0 win neutral Texas A&M). Dominated Towson, controlled Utah and Dayton easily. Won in their first test at Xavier in a fairly close game, but that’s a hard place to win. Then were tested by Texas A&M, and won.
Conference (9: 14-0, 1-0 loss at Iowa State; 14-1, 1-1 loss at TCU; 14-2, 1-2 win home Texas Tech; 18-2, 5-2 WIN at Texas; 19-2, 6-2 loss at Kansas; 20-3, 7-3 WIN at Cincinnati; 23-3, 10-3 at Baylor): Beaten at Iowa State in game 2. Really close loss at TCU in game 3. Destroyed Texas Tech and Kansas State at home in games 4 and 7. Taken to OT by Texas on the road in game 8, but won. Beaten at Kansas by 10+ in game 9. Beat Oklahoma State at home in game 10. Another road win in game 11 at Cincinnati to get to 8-3 in conference. Home win in game 12 over Texas. Beat Iowa State in game 13 at home in a great seeding win. Another great road win at Baylor in game 14. WOW. 5 in a row in the Big 12. This team is good. Won home against Cincinnati in game 15. Crushed Oklahoma’s upset dreams on the road with a last second Shedd shot in game 16. Crushed Kansas at home to finish the conference season at 15-3.
Players and Coach: Obviously VERY good. Iowa State beat them with their rebounding and size, and they are not huge. But – outstanding full floor guards. Athletic. Gamers. They rebound though they are small. Cryer, a guard, scores quite a bit for them. Shedd is a great defensive player, maybe the best in the nation. Sampson is a very experienced and capable coach.

UConn. Clearly the class of the Big East and may be the class of the nation.
Prediction: 1st Big East; AUTOBID; 1 Seed; Losing Finalist.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Beat Marquette on the road. They are winning almost everything.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID! Won the Big East tourney! Won the Big East by 3-4 games! 1 seed and likely winner. Marquette and Creighton may give them a hard time in the final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: UConn is a 1 seed even if they lose to Xavier in the Big East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 1st Big East, Record 28-3 (18-2), NET 3 (10-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 2 (SoS 59), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (12: 3-0 win neutral Indiana; 4-0 win neutral Texas; 7-0 loss home Kansas; 7-1 win neutral North Carolina; 9-1 win neutral Gonzaga). Absolutely destroyed teams in noncompetitive games early. Wiped out a very average Indiana team. Won against a very good Texas team that fights. In the game the whole way at KANSAS on the road. Dismantled North Carolina and Gonzaga.
Conference (9: 12-2, 2-1 WIN at Butler; 13-2, 3-1 WIN at Xavier, 14-2, 4-1 win home Georgetown; 16-2, 6-1 WIN at Villanova; 19-2, 9-1 WIN at St. John’s): Lost at Seton Hall in conference early. Blew out DePaul in game 3. Won road games at Butler, Xavier, Villanova, St. John’s, Butler, Georgetown, and DePaul in games 4, 5, 8, 11, 12, 13 and 14. Home wins in games 6, 7, 9, and 10 with Georgetown, Creighton, Xavier, and Providence. Absolutely dominated the 2 seed Marquette in game 15 at home. Winning basically everything in the Big East. Finally got 2nd Big East loss at 3 seed Creighton in game 16. Beat Villanova at home in game 17 to get back on track. Crushed 4 seed Seton Hall at home in game 18. Won at Marquette in a massive confernce separation game 19. Beat Providence on the road to finish the conference 18-2.
Players and Coach: Forward Karaban leads a squad that is very talented. Major national championship contender.

NCAA Tourney Losing Finalist

NCAA Tourney Final 4 (teams 3-4 in the tournament)

Purdue. Threat to win it all. Will be a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAAs for certain.
Prediction: 1st Big 10; AUTOBID; 1 Seed; Final Four.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. First team to LOCK.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Likely Big 10 tournament winner also. 1 seed. Play the winner of Minnesota/Michigan State in the quarterfinals. Eliminated by Wisconsin in the Big 10 semifinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Purdue is a 1 seed even if they lose to Minnesota or Michigan State in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/10): 1st Big 10, Record 28-3 (17-3), NET 2 (11-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 3 (SoS 5), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 3-0 win neutral Gonzaga; 4-0 win neutral Tennessee; 5-0 win neutral Marquette; 8-1 win neutral Alabama). Won all games early. Won great early tournament against Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette which are great wins. Then Alabama played them very close on a neutral site.
Conference (8: 7-0, 0-0 LOSS at Northwestern; 14-2, 3-2 win home Penn State; 16-2, 5-2 WIN at Iowa; 18-2, 7-2 WIN at Rutgers; 20-2, 9-2 WIN at Wisconsin): Lost at Northwestern in their first big 10 game, but that says more about Northwestern than Purdue I think. Nice close win at home against probable Big Ten #2 Illinois in game 3. Beat Penn State at home in game 5. Road wins at Iowa and Rutgers in games 8 and 10. Taken to OT by Northwetern in game 11, but won. Big Road win at Wisconsin in game 12. Crushed Indiana at home in game 13. Held off Minnesota in game 14 at home. Upset by Ohio State in game 15. Beat Rutgers by 30 in the next game at home. Won at Michigan in game 17. Beat Michigan State at home in game 18. Beat Wisconsin at home to finish the conference at 17-3.
Players and Coach: Purdue has a BUNCH of talent and experience, and a couple of freshmen, and they are mad that they lost in the 1st round last year as a #1 seed. But still, Zach Edey is no amazing leader, and I think they fall short in the tournament again.

North Carolina. They look awfully good.
Prediction: 1st ACC; AUTOBID; 1 Seed; NCAA Final Four.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Won easily at Duke.
Conference Tourney Outlook: They are the 1 seed, and will be the favorite in every conference game. Probably in the conference final at worst. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC Final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: North Carolina is playing for a 1 seed. If they lose before the final or to anyone other than Duke in the final they are probably a 2 seed. If they lose to Duke they still might be a 2 seed.
Stats (3/9): 1st ACC, Record 25-6 (17-3), NET 10 (6-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 8 (SoS 23), Lunardi 2 Seed
Non-Conference (12: 4-0 neutral Villanova; 4-1 neutral Arkansas; 5-1 win home Tennessee; 7-1 neutral UConn). They didn’t exactly dominate early, and battled Villanova hard in an OT loss. Controlled the game against a very good Arkansas team. Then jumped all over Tennessee and held them off at the the end. Nice controlled win over Florida State to open the conference. Taken out by UConn and Kentucky in competitive games. Beat Oklahoma on a neutral floor.
Conference (10: 9-3, 1-0 WIN at Pitt; 11-3, 3-0 WIN at NC State; 14-3, 6-0 WIN at Boston College; 16-3, 8-0 WIN at Florida State; 18-4, 10-1 LOSS home Clemson; 18-5, 10-2 WIN at Miami): Beat Florida State in game 1 at home. Controlled bubble teams Pitt and NC State on the road in games 2 and 4. Blew out Syracuse, Louisville and Wake Forest in games 5, 6 and 8 at home. Won their fourth and fifth ACC games in games 7 and 9 at Boston College and Florida State on the road. Lost for the 1st time in the ACC at Georgia Tech in game 10. Rebounded with a home win with Duke in game 11. Beaten by Clemson at home in game 12 in a game that shows they are human. At least their 5th conference road win in game 13 at Miami. Beaten at Syracuse in game 14. Just dominated Virginia on the road scoring only 54 points (!) in game 16. Beat Miami and NC State at home in games 17 and 18 in non blowouts. Crushed Notre Dame at home in game 19. Beat Duke on the road to finish 17-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: North Carolina was #19 preseason. Bacot, a forward, is their feature player. Cormac Ryan a great guard transfer. Davis and Ingram also scoring talents. They are big, and no doubt talented but I don’t see a team that can advance far in the tourney, if they make it.

NCAA Tourney Elite 8 (teams 5-8 in the tournament)

2 Seeds

Iowa State. Might get the 1 Seed in the Big 12 Tourney and a very high NCAA Seed.
Prediction: 2nd Big 12; 2 Seed; NCAA Elite 8.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Great NET, wins against Houston and Kansas which help a LOT. Nice home win against BYU late. The Kansas State loss doesn’t affect them unless they lose early in the Big 12 tourney for seeding.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID! Won the Big 12 Tourney. Will be the 2 seed. One of the favorites in the brutal Big 12 tourney.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Iowa State has earned a 2 seed, but still could slip to a 3 seed if they lose in the Big 12 tournament to Kansas State in the quarterfinals, or in the semifinals to some lower seeeded team. No respect!
Stats (3/9): 2nd Big 12, Record 24-7 (13-5), NET 8 (7-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 11 (SoS 66), Lunardi 2 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral VCU; 5-0 loss neutral Virginia Tech; 5-1 loss neutral Texas A&M; 5-2 win at DePaul; 6-2 win home Iowa). Trailed the whole way against a pretty good VCU team and then won it at the end. Trailed the whole way against Virginia Tech and lost. Led early against Texas A&M and lost. Pulled away against a bad DePaul team. Really dominated Iowa.
Conference (8: 11-3, 0-1 WIN home Houston; 13-4, 2-2 WIN at TCU; 15-4, 4-2 win home Kansas; 16-4, 5-2 loss at Baylor; 17-5, 6-3 win home TCU; 18-5, 7-3 WIN at Cincinnati). Outstanding home wins in game 2 and 7 against previously undefeated Houston and Kansas at home. Road win at TCU in game 5. Beat Kansas State at home in game 6. Lost at Baylor in game 8 because their last second make was .1 seconds too late. Game 10 win at home with TCU. Conference road win at Cincinnati in game 11 to get to 8-3. In the game all the way at Houston in game 13, but lost. Beat West Virginia at home in game 14. Great separartion win home against Oklahoma in game 15. Won at UCF in game 16. Beat a geared up BYU in a really close high level game 17 at home. Beaten at Kansas State in a game Kansas State really needed, but still dropped them to the 2 seed and 13-5.
Players and Coach: This an excellent team, with a great leader in Lipsey and a bunch of key components of a good basketball team. They play aggressive defense. Gilbert and Lipsey are two good guards. Momcilovic is an outstanding Nowitski like freshman 3. Watson and King big physical bigs who can defend in the Big 12. Otzelberger their coach has a good reputation.

Arizona. Arizona is my national champion. Should win the Pac 12.
Prediction: 1st Pac 12; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 8 Quad 1 wins. 2 of their 7 losses are to Washington State the 2 seed.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% AUTOBID. 1 seed. Only Washington State is competitive, and maybe Colorado can beat them? I doubt it. Lots of teams motivated as there are not a lot of at-large bids for the Pac 12 this year. Beat USC. Lost to Oregon in the Pac 12 semfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Arizona is playing for the 1 seed, but not really anything else. They will be a 2 seed if they lose to USC in the Pac 12 quarterfinals, and probably in almost every scenario where North Carolina or Tennessee wins their tournmaments. If all 3 lose then maybe. Arizona could drop to a 3 seed if they lose before the final. After the Oregon loss they are a 2 seed.
Stats (3/9): 1st Pac 12, Record 24-7 (15-5), NET 4 (8-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 4 (SoS 22), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 WIN at Duke; 5-0 win neutral Michigan State; 7-0 win home Wisconsin; 8-1 win neutral Alabama; 9-1 loss neutral Florida Atlantic). GREAT early win at Duke and against Michigan State on a neutral floor. Destroyed #23 Wisconsin at home. Controlled Alabama on a neutral floor. Lost to Florida Atlantic in Vegas in double OT.
Conference (10-3, 1-1 win home Colorado; 12-4, 3-2 win home USC; 13-4, 4-2 win home UCLA; 16-5, 7-3 win home Stanford; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Colorado). Somehow they lost at Stanford in a game I didn’t see. But absolutely destroyed Colorado and USC in games 3 and 6. Beat UCLA in a close one in game 7 at home. Beat Stanford at home to get to 8-3 in game 11. Road win at Colorado in game 13 to establish dominance. Beaten at home by 2 seed Washington State for their 6th loss. Beat Washington at home in game 16. Won at Arizona State in game 17. Crushed Oregon in game 18 at home. Controlled UCLA on the road in game 19. Lost at USC to finish the Pac 12 15-5.
Players and Coach: Really execute down the stretch. Calm. Hit every free throw. Arguably multiple NBA level talents. Keyshawn Johnson at forward is a great defender with the talent to guard almost any larger big. Huge block at the end against Michigan State by Johnson. Ballo, another forward, is huge and improving fast. Caleb Love is on this team as a kind of side player lol. Freshman point guard Boswell is great and looks like a one and done NBA player.

Tennessee. This team is really, really good. Could win it all.
Prediction: 1st SEC; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
Bubble Watch: 100% IN. Beat Auburn at home. Beat Alabama ON THE ROAD. Beat South Carolina ON THE ROAD. They finally lost to an on fire Kentucky at home! Wow! Unbelievably hard schedule.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% AUTOBID. 1 seed in the SEC is impressive. Knecht makes them a tourney favorite for sure. Extremely hard to beat them. But the SEC quarters and semis will be tough. Eliminated by Mississippi State in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Definitely a 2 seed with the Mississippi State loss.
Stats (3/9): 1st SEC, Record 24-7 (14-4), NET 5 (8-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 5 (SoS 8), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 3-0 win neutral Syracuse; 4-0 loss neutral Purdue; 4-1 loss neutral Kansas; 4-2 loss at North Carolina; 4-3 win home Illinois). Tennessee played an extremely difficult schedule. Took over the game in the end against Syracuse on a neutral floor. Pressed Purdue all the way to the end, and nearly beat them. Then lost in a not close game to Kansas on a neutral floor. Fell way behind at North Carolina and rallied and almost beat them. Beat a top 20 Illinois kind of leading the whole way.
Conference (9: 11-4, 1-1 WIN at Georgia; 15-4, 5-1 LOSS home South Carolina; 15-5, 5-2 WIN at Kentucky; 17-5, 7-2 loss at Texas A&M; 21-6, 11-3 home Auburn; 22-6, 12-3 at Alabama): Wiped out previously 13-0 Ole Miss by 20 in their conference opener at home. Lost a very close one at Mississippi State in game 2. Beat Georgia on the road just barely in game 3. Beat Florida and Alabama easily at home in games 4 and 5. Beaten at home by South Carolina in a game that says a LOT more about South Carolina than Tennessee. Outstanding win at Kentucky proving themselves to be a top SEC team and a threat to win the conference for sure. Beat LSU at home in game 9. Dropped game 10 at Texas A&M which is not a terrible loss. Road win at Arkansas in game 11. Home win over Vanderbilt in game 12. Road win at Missouri in game 13. Beat Texas A&M in game 14 at home. Won extremely high level game against Auburn at home in game 15. Won another extremely high level game at Alabama in game 16. Won ANOTHER extremely high level game at South Carolina in game 17. Finally beaten by Kentucky at home, but their record this year of 14-4 in the SEC is phenomenal.
Players and Coach: Tennessee is the excellent chaos agent team this year. I think they can destroy every team in the NCAAs on a good night. Long. Athletic. Guard Gainey is an offensive juggernaut. Zeigler is a great point guard. Dalton Knecht might be national player of the year, and is proving to be NBA worthy. Barnes is an NBA level coach, kind of a guru.

Duke. Duke is Duke again this year. Could win the NCAA tourney and surging.
Prediction: 2nd ACC; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% STEAL. 2 seed, threat to North Carolina of course.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Duke is a very strong 2 seed and has an outside shot at a 1 seed if a bunch of games go their way. Not likely to slip to a 3 seed even if they lose their quarterfinal to NC State. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC quarterfinals. Still a 2 seed.
Stats (3/9): 2nd ACC, Record 24-7 (15-5), NET 9 (5-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 7 (SoS 75), Lunardi 2 Seed
Non-Conference: (12: 1-0 LOSS home Arizona; 1-1 win neutral Michigan State; 5-1 loss at Arkansas; 5-2 loss at Georgia Tech; 7-3 win neutral Baylor). They lost to excellent Arizona in a very close second game of the season. Controlled games with Michigan State and Baylor on neutral floors. Lost at Arkansas in a game Arkansas was majorly geared up for.
Conference (10: 10-3, 1-1 WIN at Notre Dame; 11-3, 2-1 WIN at Pitt; 13-3, 4-1 LOSS home Pitt; 13-4, 4-2 WIN at Louisville; 15-4, 6-2 WIN at Virginia Tech; 19-5, 10-3 WIN at Florida State): Upset at Georgia Tech in the ACC opener. Controlled Syracuse in game 2. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, Louisville, and Virginia Tech on the road in games 3, 4, 7 and 9. Avenged their only ACC loss home with Georgia Tech in game 5. Another upset home against Pitt in game 6. Barely held on at home against Clemson in game 8. Beaten at North Carolina in game 10. Beat Notre Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest at home in games 11-13. Road wins at Florida State and Miami in games 14 and 15. Beaten at Wake Forest on a last possession type loss in game 16. Controlled Louisville in game 17 at home. Crushed 3 seed Virginia in game 18 in a lock of the 2 seed. at home. Beat NC State on the road in game 19. Beaten by North Carolina at home to fall to 15-5 in conference.
Players and Coach: Typical super dangerous Duke team. Lots of returning players. Top recruits. Smart bigs. Tons of Talent. Filipkowski at forward is a monster! Proctor the guard also superb. Guard Roach is a gamer. McCain is a great shooter. Gonna be hard to beat them in the tournament. The new coach Scheyer is not a legend, so that may hurt them in the tournament, let’s not forget.

NCAA Tourney Sweet 16 (teams 9-16 in the tournament)

3 Seeds

Illinois. Really better than their record indicates becasue Shannon was out for some of their losses.
Prediction: 2nd Big 10, 3 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN (Feb 28).
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. In the Big 10 tourney they will probably get to the finals or semis and will be in that game because they have the talent.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Illinois is ranked lower by some but I see them as a 3 seed. If they get upset in the Big 10 tournament maybe a 4 seed.
Stats (3/10): 2nd Big 10; Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 15 (5-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 10 (SoS 35), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (8: loss home Marquette; 6-1 win neutral Florida Atlantic; 7-1 loss at Tennessee; 8-2 neutral Missouri). In the game the whole way against a very highly rated Marquette. Seemed to execute over and over again, but so did Marquette. Then took down an outstanding Florida Atlantic team. Then lost at Tennessee, who is outstanding, in a fairly close game. Blew out a really good Missouri team.
Conference (11: 5-1, 0-0 WIN at Rutgers; 12-3, 3-1 LOSS home Maryland; 12-4, 3-2 WIN at Michigan; 14-5, 5-3 win home Indiana; 18-6, 9-4 WIN at Maryland): Really nice conference game one win at Rutgers. Even better wins at home against Northwestern and Michigan State in games 2 and 4. No shame in a close loss at Purdue in game 3. A lot of shame in game 5 loss to Maryland at home. Then a road win at Michigan in game 6. Nice game 7 20 point win in Shannon’s first game back against Rutgers at home. Beaten in OT at Northwestern in game 8. Nice wins home with Indiana and Nebraska in games 9 and 11. Beaten at Michigan State in game 12. Road win at Maryland in game 14. Beaten on the last possession at Penn State in game 15. Beat Iowa and Minnesota at home in games 16 and 17. Won AT Wisconsin in a massive separation game 18. Won AT Iowa to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: Their big 3 of Shannon, Damask and Hawkins, together with a great supporting cast makes them a championship threat. Underwood knows what he is doing as coach.

Auburn. Auburn has won all 24 games they have won by 10 points or more. Title contender.
Prediction: 2nd SEC; 3 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Outstanding year in the SEC.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2-5 seed.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Auburn is probably one of the top 8 teams in the country and could move up to a 2 seed with a great tourney performance.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 24-7 (13-5), NET 6 (1-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 5 (SoS 57), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 0-0 loss neutral Baylor; 1-1 win neutral Notre Dame; 4-1 win home Vanderbilt; 5-1 LOSS at Appalachian State; 7-2 win home USC). Destroyed a pretty bad Notre Dame team and a decent mid major in St. Bonaventure. Lots of new players, but easily looked competitive in a loss to #20 Baylor in their first game. Beat Virginia Tech and USC easily. Lost at Appalachian State, which I don’t think is a really bad loss despite the conference. Kudos to them for going to the mid-major team away. Dominated a fairly bad Indiana team.
Conference (11: 11-2, 0-0 WIN at Arkansas; 14-2, 3-0 WIN at Vanderbilt; 16-3, 5-1 loss at Mississippi State; 17-4, 6-2 WIN at Ole Miss; 18-4, 7-2 win home Alabama; 20-5, 9-3 LOSS home Kentucky; 21-6, 10-4 at Tennessee): Good game 1-3 wins at Arkansas and home with Texas A&M and LSU. Controlling road win in game 4 at Vanderbilt. Blew out Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in games 5 and 8 at home. First conference losses at Alabama and Mississippi State in games 6 and 7. Outstanding conference win on the road at 18-3 Ole Miss in game 9. Crushed Alabama in game 10 at home. Blow out loss at Florida in game 11. Blew out South Carolina in game 12 at home. Then beaten by Kentucky at home in game 13. Road win at Georgia in game 14. Really in the game at Tennessee in game 15 in a VERY high level game, but lost. Beat Mississippi State at home in game 16. Beat Missouri on the road in game 17. Beat Georgia at home to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Bruce Pearl knows how to coach athletic talent and I have no reason to expect they won’t be dangerous in the tournament. Good, big, athletic team. Broome at forward is a major force, scoring and rebounds. Holloway is a good freshman guard. Johnson is also a good guard. Experienced. They know how to pass too.

Marquette. Losing Kolek really hurts them and should drop their seeding.
Prediction: 2nd Big East; 3 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Beaten by Creighton and UConn late in the season without Kolek. Won tough game at Xavier in their last game.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 25% chance AUTOBID. They were among the best and then they lost Kolek and lost to UConn and Creighton. They might need the win at Xavier to preserve the 2 seed, but no matter what they have to beat both Creighton and UConn to get the AUTOBID. Without Kolek, that may be impossible. Eliminated by UConn in the Big East Final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Marquette has the Kolek question mark and is up to 8 losses. Could be seeded 4 or even 5 if they get knocked out of the Big East tourney. They are a SOLID 3 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd Big East, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 14 (7-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 14 (SoS 9), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (11: 2-0 win at Illinois; 3-0 win neutral UCLA; 4-0 win neutral Kansas; 5-0 loss neutral Purdue; 6-1 loss at Wisconsin). Beat Illinois, UCLA, Kansas and Texas early in the year, then lost a pretty close game to Purdue and were beaten at Wisconsin and at Providence.
Conference (10: 11-4, 2-2 LOSS home Butler; 11-5, 2-3 win home Villanova; 12-5, 3-3 WIN at St. John’s; 15-5, 6-3 WIN at Villanova; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Butler): In a real war at home with Creighton and won. Then beaten at Seton Hall and at home with Butler in bad seeding losses. Beat Villanova and DePaul at home easily in games 6 and 8. Last possession win at St. John’s in game 7. Beat Seton Hall at home in game 9. Road win at Georgetown in game 11. Another game, another win in game 12 home with St. John’s. Nice win at Butler to get to 10-3 in conference. Beaten by almost 30 at UConn in game 14, then beat DePaul by almost 30 in game 15! Crushed Xavier and Providence in games 16 and 17 at home. Beaten at Creighton in game 18, missing some players. Then lost at home to UConn in game 19 in a major seedings loss. Won at Xavier to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: Shaka Smart is an outstanding coach. Joplin is an excellent big, especially on defense. Iguodaro another good bid, especially on offense. Kolek is a great distributing guard who can score. Ross is really athletic and talented. Losing Sean Jones for the year does not help them. Interesting team that will be hard to match up with on defense, because they have five similarly sized starters. And they play organized and well. Seeded #5 to start the year, I think bigger more powerful teams will take them out both in the season and in the tournament. But they have a BUNCH of gamers. Played a ridiculous schedule at the beginning of the year and started 7-2. Could win it all, but they have already lost three times.

Kentucky. Won 7 of 8 late to put their stamp on this season. Growing MORE dangerous.
Prediction: 3rd SEC; 3 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Nice win at home over Alabama and on the road at Mississippi State AND AT TENNESSEE late.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Obviously, you do not want to play them. 2-5 seed. Calipari is a tournament / star coach. Eliminated by Texas A&M in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: 3 seed seems just about right for Kentucky who have the quality of a one seed and the performance of an 8 seed. Could drop to a 4 with the quarterfinal loss.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 23-8 (13-5), NET 19 (5-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 18 (SoS 71), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 2-0 loss neutral Kansas; 3-1 win home St. Joseph’s; 5-1 win home Miami; 6-1 LOSS home UNC Wilmington; 7-2 win neutral North Carolina). But came to play against Kansas and almost beat them. Then absolutely destroyed Miami in the ACC-SEC challenge. Lost by 8 at home to UNC Wilmington. Won a close game with North Carolina in a nice win. Destroyed Louisville on a neutral floor. High end february matchup with Gonzaga ended in a loss.
Conference (9: 10-2, 0-0 WIN at Florida, 14-4, 4-2 WIN at Arkansas; 15-4, 5-2 LOSS home Florida; 15-5, 5-3 LOSS home Tennessee; 17-7, 7-4 WIN at Auburn): Great road win at Florida in their conference opener. Beat Missouri, Mississippi State and Georgia at home in games 2, 4 and 5. OT loss in a great game at Texas A&M game 3. Beaten on the road again at South Carolina in game 6. Road win at Arkansas in game 7. Beaten at home by Florida and Tennessee in games 8 and 9 in a clear warning sign for their tournament capability. Road win at Vanderbilt in game 10. Beat Ole Miss at home in game 11. Phenomenal game 12 win at Auburn, for resume and seeding. Beaten on a last second tip in at LSU for their 5th SEC loss. Excellent win at home over Alabama to right the ship in the SEC again. Another excellent win on the road at Mississippi State in game 15. Beat Arkansas at home in game 16 in a fairly close game. Beat Vanderbilt at home in game 17. OUTSTANDING road win at Tennessee who has beaten everyone to finish the conference 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is a very typical young super talented Kentucky team that can lose on any given night, but could win the national championship with tons of NBA level talent. Freshman Dillingham is a legit force and looks solid. Other Freshman Wagner is a top 5 recruit. Might be their team by the end of the year. Tre Mitchell experienced player for them. Not sure a team led by Shephard can win key games. Apparently have three 7 footers not playing at the beginning of the year so look out once they arrive. Calipari still coaching them, of course.

4 Seeds

Creighton. One of those dangerous teams that is just below the top.
Prediction: 3rd Big East; 4 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Will not get to 9 losses.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 38% AUTOBID chance. 2 or 3 seed. Creighton won 7 of their last 8. Eliminated by Providence in the Big East quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Creighton has been plugging along and really deserve a 4 seed at the lowest and I think maybe a 3. Big East Quarterfinals loss to Providence: Still a 4 seed.
Stats (3/9): 2nd Big East, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 11 (7-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 9 (SoS 17), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (12: 5-0 loss neutral Colorado State; 5-1 win at Oklahoma State; 8-1 loss at UNLV; 8-2 win home Alabama). Held their own defeating Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska in very nice wins. But two bad losses to Mountain West teams. They ran into a buzzsaw in Colorado State, losing about almost 20. And lost at UNLV by 15 points. Controlled the games at Oklahoma State and blew out Nebraska.
Conference (10: 9-2, 0-0 LOSS home Villanova; 9-4, 0-2 WIN at Georgetown; 11-4, 2-2 WIN at DePaul; 13-5, 4-3 WIN at Seton Hall; 16-5, 7-3 LOSS home Butler; 16-7, 7-5 WIN at Xavier; 18-7, 9-5 WIN at Butler): Lost real wars with Villanova and Marquette in games 1 and 2. Controlled Georgetown in game 3. Beat Providence at home, and DePaul on the road in games 4 and 5. Barely beat St. John’s at home in game 6. Lost at UConn in game 7. Outstanding wins at Seton Hall and home with Xavier in games 8 and 9. Home with with DePaul in game 10. Beaten at home in game 11 by Butler in a bad seeding loss. But road win at Xavier in game 13 to get to 8-5 in the Big East. Game 14 win home against Georgetown. Another impressive road win at Butler in game 15. 4th straight Big East win at home over UCONN in game 16. Beaten at St. John’s in a bad NCAA seeding loss in game 17. Rebound win by 25 over Seton Hall at home in game 18. Beat Marquette at home in game 19 to seal their bid. Excellent bubble bustin road win at Villanova to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: What’s not to like about this team. skill, anger at last years Elite 8 loss. This is a real basketball fan’s basketball team. Lots and lots of positives here. Ashworth just solid at the point can run the team. Two all conference bigs including huge Kalkbrenner and Schiermann, great point guard, depth, organization. Greg McDermott is arguably one of the nation’s best coaches and he has the talent. Outside threat to win it all.

Wisconsin. Lost 8 of their last 11 games which is amazing for a projected NCAA tournament team
Prediction: 3rd Big 10; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 70% IN. See above. Yikes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. 5 seed so missed out on the double bye. Will play the winner of Maryland and Rutgers in the 2nd round.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Right now I have them as a 7 seed, but they lost a bunch of games and may be lower. If they lose to Maryland in the 2nd round of the tourney they may be in bubble trouble? I don’t think so. Probably in anyway.
Stats (3/10): 5th Big 10, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 22 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 23 (SoS 6), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 1-1 loss at Providence; 2-2 win neutral Virginia; 3-2 win neutral SMU; 5-2 win home Marquette; 6-2 win at Arizona). Blown out at Providence. Then blew out a supposedly good Virginia team that I don’t believe in. Really struggled with an OK SMU team, but won solidly in control. Great early win home vs. Marquette and they controlled the game. Blown out at Arizona.
Conference (12: 11-3, 3-0 WIN at Ohio State; 13-3, 5-0 loss at Penn State; 14-4, 6-1 WIN at Minnesota; 15-4, 7-1 win home Michigan State; 16-5, 8-2 LOSS home Purdue): Controlled Iowa and Nebraska in games 2 and 3 at home. Proved themselves a top Big 10 team in game for win at Ohio State, and at home with Northwestern in game 5. Last team to lose in the Big 10 in game 6 at Penn State in an upset. Easily beat Indiana at home in game 7. Road win at Minnesota in game 8. Controlled Michigan State at home in game 9. Lost at Nebraska and Michigan in games 10 and 12 Beaten by Purdue at home in game 11. Blown out at Rutgers in game 13 to drop to 8-5 in conference. Beaten at Iowa to fall to 9-6 in game 15. Beat Maryland at home in game 16. Beaten on the road at Indiana for the 7th conference loss in game 17. Beaten at home in game 18 with Illinois in a very bad seeding loss for them. Recovery win over Rutgers in game 19 at home. Lost at Purdue to finish the conference season at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Obviously experienced with Crowl, Wahl & Hepburn. AJ Storr brings athleticism and scoring, which they need. Probably will outperform their early look. They are gonna win a LOT of games with experience and a lot of talent in the underskilled Big 10 this year.

Baylor. Excellent college basketball team. Can win the national championship in an upset.
Prediction: 3rd Big 12; 4 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Nice win at TCU. Great win against Kansas at home. Beat Texas. Lost at Texas Tech.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 20% 3 or 4 seed. Really held it together in conference all year. Eliminated by Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Baylor has 9 losses, but they play in the Big 12. They need a win or two to keep a 4 seed. After the Iowa State loss I think they are still a 4 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd Big 12, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 13 (8-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 13 (SoS 5), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (0-0 win neutral Auburn; 5-0 win neutral Florida; 8-0 win home Seton Hall; 9-0 loss neutral Michigan State; 9-1 loss neutral Duke). Beat a tough Auburn team with key plays down the stretch. Totally controlled Oregon State. Then against Florida, who is good, they led the whole way. Led the whole way against likely tournament team Seton Hall at home. Then lost by 30 to Michigan State and by 10 to Duke on neutral courts.
Conference (9: 14-3, 3-1 loss at Texas; 14-4, 3-2 LOSS home TCU; 16-5, 5-3 win home Texas Tech; 17-5, 6-3 loss at Kansas; 18-6, 7-4 WIN at West Virginia; 19-7, 8-5 home Houston): Lost tough one possession game at Texas in game 5. Beaten at home in triple OT by TCU in game 6. Barely held off Iowa State in game 8 at home. Beat Texas Tech in game 9 at home. Beaten at Kansas in game 10 to drop to 6-4. Beat Oklahoma in game 11 at home. Road win at West Virginia in game 12. Beaten at BYU in game 13. Beaten at home by Houston in a very close game in game 14. Great win on the road at TCU by almost 20 in game 15. Beat Kansas in a huge separation game 16. Beat Texas at home in a crushing loss for Texas in game 17. Lost at Texas Tech to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Deep, athletic, talented team. #20 in the preseason poll, but lots of new players. Drew will coach them up though. Walter the freshman guard is a likely first round NBA pick. Dennis is another nice scoring and passing point guard. Nunn the transfer guard is a serious player.

Alabama. They are in the tournament absent a total collapse.
Prediction: 4th SEC; 4 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Will be a 2-5 seed. They want to stay in the top 4 seeds.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 24%. They definitely want to stay in the top 4 for the double bye.
Stats (3/9): 2nd SEC, Record 21-10 (13-5), NET 7 (4-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 11 (SoS 2), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 4-0 loss neutral Ohio State; 5-1 loss home Clemson; 6-2 loss neutral Purdue; 6-3 loss at Creighton; 6-4 loss neutral Arizona). Trailed the whole way against a better than expected Ohio State on a neutral floor. Lost against a pretty good Clemson at home. In a very close war with Purdue on a neutral site, but shot the lights out. Then in a very close loss at Creighton, which is impressive. Not that close with Arizona. But their non-conference schedule was brutal.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Alabama has 10 losses, but they played the 2nd hardest schedule in America. Definitely deserve a 4 seed or higher. Will go up or down depending on tourney performance.
Conference (12: 8-5, 0-0 WIN at Vanderbilt; 10-5, 2-0 WIN at Mississippi State;; 14-6, 6-1 WIN at Georgia; 16-7, 8-2 WIN at LSU; 19-8, 11-3 WIN at Ole Miss): Finally beat Vanderbilt on the road in their conference opener, but it was a struggle. Game 2 and 4 blowouts at home over South Carolina and Missouri at home. Excellen win in game 3 at Mississippi State on the road. Blown out at Tennessee in game 5. Beat previously undefeated Auburn and LSU in games 6 and 7 at home. 3rd road win in conference at Georgia in game 8 to go to 7-1 in conference. Crushed Mississippi State in game 9 at home. Blown out at Auburn in game 10. Another road win at LSU in game 11. Beat Texas A&M at home in game 12. Beat Florida at home in a tournament level game in game 13. Beaten at Kentucky in game 14 in a tough seeding loss. Won on the road at Ole Miss in a very nice road win in game 15. Beaten at home by Tennessee in game 16 in a close one and no shame in that really, except for Alabaman shame. Crushed by Florida on the road in game 17 in a game that kind of confirms that they have not been seeded too low. Came back to beat Arkansas to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Highest scoring team in the country. Sears the guard is quick and scores like crazy, and is a player of the year candidate.

NCAA Tourney Round 2 (teams 17-32 in the tournament)

5 Seeds

Florida. I’m not sure they have the guards to get past the second round.
Prediction: 6th SEC; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. They have a great resume. Beaten at South Carolina. Destroyed Alabama at home. Bad loss at Vanderbilt keeps them from clinching an at-large bid.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 15% chance. 6 seed. I think they make the semis of their conference tourney, and a decent NCAA seed, but that quarterfinal is going to be tough.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Florida is my bubble team with the highest chance of getting in. If Florida loses to Georgia are they on the bubble? I don’t think so but maybe. I’ll have them in.
Stats (3/9): 6th SEC, Record 21-10 (11-7), NET 35 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 30 (SoS 49), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 1-0 loss neutral Virginia; 3-1 win neutral Pitt; 4-1 loss neutral Baylor; 4-2 LOSS at Wake Forest; 7-3 win at Michigan). Played well in a tough first game against a very good Virginia team. Didn’t have the decisionmakers at the end, kind of bad guard play. Game could have gone either way. Totally blew out Florida State, who is big. Beat a very good team in Pitt after that. Played Baylor close missing a few players. Then lost at Wake Forest who is not very good. Nice double OT win at Michigan to get to 7-3.
Conference (13: 10-3, 0-0 LOSS home Kentucky; 11-6, 1-3 WIN at Missouri; 14-6, 4-3 WIN at Kentucky; 15-6, 5-3 at Texas A&M; 15-7, 5-4 win home Auburn; 17-7, 7-4 WIN at Georgia; 19-8, 9-5 home Missouri): Not any bad losses so far. Took Kentucky to the end but lost at home in the conference opener. Then lost by 20 at Ole Miss and Tennessee in games 2 and 4. Beat Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Georgia at home in games 3, 6 and 7. Nice road win at Missouri in game 5. Outstanding season making win at Kentucky in game 8. Lost very close game at Texas A&M in game 9. Beat Auburn at home in game 10 in a real resume builder, and another home win against LSU in game 11. Good conference road win at Georgia in game 12. Beat Vanderbilt and Missouri at home in games 14 and 15. Beaten at South Carolina in game 1 for their 6th conference loss. Absolutely crushed Alabama in an outstanding win game 17. Beaten at Vanderbilt to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Very athletic team. Big, kind of classic Florida. Balanced and deep. Clayton and Kugel both nice players. Pullin is another really good guard who can score and pass. Goldin is a young rising coach.

South Carolina. They just keep on winning SEC games.
Prediction: 5th SEC; 4 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Statement win at Tennessee, only 5 losses on the year! Beat Florida at home late. Beaten at home by Tennessee in a real war. Won at Mississippi State too.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2-5 seed They want to stay top 4 for the double bye. SEC semifinals are going to be unbelievable. Eliminated by Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: South Carolina only has 6 losses and so they deserve a 3 seed. Will they get it? Probably only if they get to the final or get the AUTOBID. The Auburn loss may put them as far down as a 5 seed, and Lunardi has them as a 6 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 25-6 (13-5), NET 47 (4-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 46 (SoS 81), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 1-0 win neutral Virginia Tech; 4-0 win neutral Grand Canyon; 5-0 win home Notre Dame; 7-0 loss at Clemson; 7-1 win at East Carolina). Handled Notre Dame easily. In a very close loss at Clemson, which is not bad. At East Carolina, who is a decent mid-major, they really struggled to win. Crushed Elon.
Conference (11: 13-2, 1-1 WIN at Missouri; 14-2, 2-1 LOSS home Georgia; 14-3, 2-2 WIN at Arkansas; 15-3, 3-2 WIN home Kentucky; 17-3, 5-2 WIN at Tennessee; 18-3, 6-2 WIN at Georgia; 21-4, 9-3 LOSS home LSU): Really nice conference opening win with Mississippi State at home. Blown out in game 2 at Alabama. Won a real war at Missouri in a bubble game 3. Lost to Georgia at home in game 4. Nice road win at Arkansas in game 5. Great controlling home wins against Kentucky and Missouri in games 6 and 7. Season defining win at #5 Tennessee in game 8. Their fourth conference road win at Georgia in game 9. Beat Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in games 10 and 11 at home. Blown out at Auburn in game 12. 2nd home loss to a bottom of the league team in LSU in game 13. Crushed Ole Miss on the road in game 14. Beat Texas A&M on the road in a game A&M had to win in game 15. Beat Florida at home in a matchup of tourney teams in game 16. Beaten at home by Tennessee in a crazy high level game. Great road win over Mississippi State to finish the conference season at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Mechie Johnson is a crazy good scorer and PJ Mack is their good forward. Lots of transfers, including Minnesota transfer Ta’Lon Cooper, who I know well. They have a ton of talented size and rebound aggresssively. Just a LOT to like. Having a great season.

BYU. If ever a loss got you into the NCAAs it would be their close loss at Iowa State.
Prediction: 5th Big 12; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Phenomenal resume road win at Kansas, and a home win against bubble team TCU. Basically gets them in the tournament. Very close to winning at Iowa State. What an interesting conference switch. They have held up well all year in the Big 12 and the Kansas win solidifies that.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 18% chance. Played on day 2 and beat UCF. Next up 4 seed Texas Tech. I don’t see them getting the AUTOBID, so they will have to rely on their gaudy stats (undeserved?). They did lose at West Virginia and at Oklahoma State, which don’t look good on a bubble resume. Eliminated by Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Both me and Lunardi have them at a 5 seed. The game against Texas Tech will determine their seeding by quite a bit. I don’t think they can move up, but they can move down maybe to a 6 or 7 seed. Lost to Texas Tech. Might drop to a 6 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 5th Big 12, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 12 (6-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 16 (SoS 46), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral Arizona State; 5-0 win neutral NC State). They absolutely destroyed what I think is an OK Arizona State team. Put NC State away pretty easily too after trailing early.
Conference (6: 12-1, 0-0 LOSS home Cincinnati; 12-3, 0-2 WIN at UCF; 14-3, 2-2 loss at Texas Tech; 14-5, 2-4 win home Texas; 18-7, 6-6 win home Baylor): Beaten badly at home by Cincinnati in the conference opener. Nice win in game 3 at UCF on the road Beaten at Texas Tech in game 5. Controlled Texas in game 7. Beat Kansas State at home in game 10. Really nice game 13 win over Baylor at home. Beaten at Kansas State in game 14 the very next game. OUTSTANDING win AT KANSAS in game 15. Won at home against TCU in game 16. Came to play at Iowa State and almost beat them on the road in game 17. Beat Oklahoma State at home to finish 10-8 in conference.
Players and Coach: Could lose to a big powerful team in the tournament because they aren’t huge. BYU in the Big 12 is really interesting, because they will really benefit over time from the physicality. But in this year? We will see, but I think so. Waterman leads them and they have a bunch of tall athletic players. Knell a guard can really score. And unlike in many previous years, a tougher BYU team will be much harder to beat in the tournament. They did show a total lack of discipline at the end of the game, but I don’t think that will last at BYU. BYU REALLY pissed of 2 teams in a row, so I wonder about them personality wise. Pope is in his 5th year as head coach.

San Diego State. They lost to all 6 of the other top 7 Mountain West teams on the road.
Prediction: 1st MWC; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Home against Boise State left. They are in even if they lose that and are beaten in the Mountain West.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30% STEAL. Will be motivated to restored order in the conference and get the AUTOBID. All these other good teams! Ledee makes them an AUTOBID threat. Dutcher is a tournament coach. Eliminated by New Mexico in the MWC final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: San Diego State is in the Mountain West morass and a lot of the seeding depends on what happens in the tournament. San Diego State has 3 more losses than Utah State, for example, but they have the Gonzaga win and fame so if they have a good tourney they are the top Mountain West seed, especially if they beat Nevada and Utah State.
Stats (3/8): 5th MWC, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 19 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 20 (SoS 26), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (6: 3-1 win neutral Washington; 7-1 loss at Grand Canyon; 7-2 win home UC Irvine; 9-2 win home Stanford; 10-2 WIN at Gonzaga). Kind of struggled to put Cal State Fullerton away, but they won by a ton of points in the end. Held off a game Washington team in the end. Lost at Grand Canyon, but that is a super tough place to play. Controlled Stanford. Missing Ledee they almost lost at home to UC Irvine, but won! Outstanding non-conference win at Gonzaga on the road.
Conference (11: 13-2, 2-0 WIN at San Jose State; 14-2, 3-0 loss at New Mexico; 15-3, 4-1 loss at Boise State; 16-4, 5-2 loss at Colorado State; 16-5, 5-3 win home Utah State; 18-5, 7-3 loss at Nevada; 19-6, 8-4 win home New Mexico; 20-6, 9-4 loss at Utah State): Started 3-0 in conference, beating Fresno State, UNLV and San Jose State. Then lost at New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State in games 4, 6 and 8. Beat Nevada, Wyoming and Utah State at home in games 5, 7, and 9. Road win at Air Force in game 10. Last possession OT road loss at a very game Nevada in game 11. Nice win over Colorado State in game 12 at home. Beat New Mexico at home in game 13. Beaten at Utah State in game 14. Crushed Fresno State on the road in game 15. San Jose State came to play, but lost in game 16. Beaten at UNLV in a key seedings loss game 17. Beaten at home by Boise State to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Defensive team with some bigs. Jaedon Ledee is an outstanding NBA level player down low. Dutcher is an excellent coach and should have been rolling by tournament time.

6 Seeds

Saint Mary’s. 15-1 in the WCC, with road wins at Colorado State, San Francisco and Gonzaga.
Prediction: 1st WCC; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Beaten by Gonzaga at home and will be beaten by them again, but they are IN.
Conference Tourney Outlook: It all comes down to them and Gonzaga. If not, something weird happened. Beat the 4 seed Santa Clara and the 2 seed Gonzaga to win the WCC AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Saint Mary’s at a 7 is actually high, but they kind of earned it. I think their NET rating is way higher than it should be. Early out in the tournament.
Stats (3/2): 1st WCC, Record 24-7 (15-1), NET 17 (4-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 22 (SoS 116), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (3-3 loss home Utah; 3-4 loss at Boise State; 4-5 WIN at Colorado State). Utah took them out, dropping them to 3-4. Then they lost at Boise State, who is a middling team. Then upset Colorado State on the road which is a VERY good win.
Conference (6: 9-6, 0-0 WIN at San Diego; 11-6, 2-0 win home Portland; 13-6, 4-0 WIN at San Francisco; 14-6, 5-0 win home Pacific; 15-6, 6-0 win home Loyola Marymount; 16-6, 7-0 win home Santa Clara; 17-6, 8-0 WIN at Gonzaga): Really nice controlling season opener at San Diego. Blew out Portland and Pacific in games 3 and 6. Outstanding road win at San Francisco in game 5. Beat Loyola Marymount in game 7 at home to get to 7-0. Statement win over Gonzaga on the road in game 9. Another road win at Pacific in game 10 to get to 10-0. 12-0 after win over Pepperdine at home. Beat San Francisco for the 2nd time in game 13. Won at Pepperdine by 20 in game 15.
Players and Coach: Lost a bunch of games at the beginning of the year against a pretty tough schedule for them. Mahaney is their star, and they have a Marciulonis who can score, and they are proving to be a major threat in the WCC. Bennett is a very good coach who knows what to do in close games.

Kansas. Where to seed Kansas would be a big question if they weren’t already a 7 or 8 seed.
Prediction: 4th Big 12; 5 Seed; 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Lots of Big 12 losses affect their seeding.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 24% AUTOBID. Seed from 4 to 7 stil. With their bigs they are a major AUTOBID threat. With their lack of depth they will probably go out. Kansas as a 7 seed would be SOMETHING! Eliminated by Cincinnati in the 2nd Round of the Big 12 tournament.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: They play 11 seed Cincinnati without their two all-star bigs. I think they lose the game, almost intentionally. Should they be in the tournament if they lose? Not sure. Probably with a much lower seed. If they win without those two that’s a really good sign. Where to seed them? Beaten by Cincinnati. I’m moving them down to a 6 seed and maybe lower if the two stars aren’t back.
Stats (3/9): 5th Big 12, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 15 (7-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 17 (SoS 2), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 2-0 win neutral Kentucky; 4-1 win neutral Tennessee; 6-1 win at UConn; 8-1 win home Missouri; 9-1 win at Indiana). Won a close one with Kentucky early. Defeated a very good Tennessee team pretty handily. Then beat UConn at home in a real war. Then won at home with a game Missouri team, and on the road at Indiana. All nice wins.
Conference (8: 14-2, 2-1 WIN at Oklahoma State; 16-3, 4-2 loss at Iowa State; 17-4, 5-3 win home Houston; 18-4, 6-3 loss at Kansas State; 18-5, 6-4 win home Baylor; 19-6, 7-5 WIN at Oklahoma): Barely won their conference opener at home with TCU. Blow out wins home and away with Oklahoma State in games 4 and 8. Close win at home with Cincinnati in game 6. Beaten at Iowa State in the first conference loss I saw and a close game. Beat Houston at home in a top of the conference showdown in game 9. Beaten at Kansas State in game 10 to get to 4 losses in the tough Big 12. Nice win against Baylor in game 11. Absolutely destroyed at Texas Tech in game 12. Excellent road win in game 13 at Oklahoma on the road. Beat Texas at home without McCullar. Beaten by BYU at home without McCullar in a major upset for Kansas. Beaten by Baylor on the road in a bad separation and seeding game 16. Recovery win blowing out Kansas State at home in game 17. Beaten at Houston by 30 to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Kansas has all the national championship components. Defense, size, scoring, experience. Wins against a VERY tough schedule. McCullar is a candidate for player of the year. And so is Dickinson. I don’t see them losing before the final four.

Texas Tech. Starting to look really good for them, but the loss home to Texas hurts.
Prediction: 6th Big 12; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 3rd and 11-7 in the Big 12.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. 4 seed. Double bye. Play 5 seed BYU in the quaraterfinals. One of the many Big 12 teams that have to fight it out. Beat BYU. Lost to Houston.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: I have them as a 6 seed, Lunardi has them as an 8. They play BYU in a big seeding game for both teams who are already in. Texas Tech is among the best teams in the Big 12 all year and deserves a seed higher than Lunardi’s 8. Their conference tourney tells me about a 6 seed is right.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd Big 12, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 35 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 27 (SoS 49), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 loss neutral Villanova; 4-1 win neutral Northern Iowa; 5-1 win neutral Michigan; 5-1 loss at Butler). Texas Tech is big, and defense oriented. One smaller guard, but the team is just giant. They stayed in the game with Villanova. They won a close one with a struggling but good Northern Iowa on a neutral floor. Then crushed Michigan on a neutral floor. Lost in overtime at Butler but that’s not really a bad loss.
Conference (8: 11-2, 0-0 WIN at Texas; 13-2, 2-0 win home Kansas State; 14-3, 3-1 win home BYU; 16-3, 5-1 loss at TCU; 17-6, 6-4 win home Kansas; 18-7, 7-5 win home TCU): Outstanding controlling conference opening win at Texas on the road. Excellent home wins in games 3 and 5 vs. Kansas State and BYU. Blown out by 20 at Houston in game 4. Beaten at TCU in game 7. Beaten at Baylor in game 9. Excellent home win over Kansas in game 11. Nice seeding win in game 13 home against TCU. Beaten at UCF in game 14 in a BAD seeding loss. Beaten at home by Texas in kind of a weird game for them in game 15. Won at West Virginia in game 16. Beat Baylor at home in a really nice closing win at home to tie them for 3rd at 11-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not a lot of offense. Washington is really big and talented. Touissant is an improving point guard maybe in the right system. Williams, Isaacs and Cambridge also talented. McCasland, the new coach, seems to know what he is doing.

Gonzaga. I can’t believe they lost to Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament.
Prediction: 2nd WCC; AUTOBID; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win at Kentucky virtually guarantees they are in. Destroyed the 3 seed. Destroyed the 1 seed. Lunardi is insane. But they have at Saint Mary’s but they are in no matter what.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Clinched the 2 seed. Bye to the semifinals. Will win the conference. Eliminated by Saint Mary’s in the West Coast final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Gonzaga lost 2 of 3 to Saint Mary’s, but still deserve to be seeded much higher than them and they deserve a 6 seed. May be seeded 7 or 8, but that would be a tragedy given the 7 and 8 seeds they are in competition with.
Stats (3/2): 2nd WCC, Record 24-6 (14-2), NET 16 (3-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 15 (SoS 113), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 2-0 loss neutral Purdue; 3-1 win neutral UCLA; 7-1 loss at Washington; 8-2 loss neutral UConn; 8-3 loss home San Diego State; 17-6 WIN at Kentucky). Saw them first against an even better Purdue team, but they are clearly gonna win a ton of games and be a very high seed once again. Handled Syracuse, UCLA and USC no problem. Then lost at Washington in a game I saw personally when Washington played out of their minds. The controlled by UConn in Seattle and by San Diego State at home. Won February matchup AT KENTUCKY.
Conference (11-4, 2-0 LOSS at Santa Clara; 13-5, 4-1 win home San Francisco; 16-5, 7-1 home win Loyola Marymount; 16-5, 7-1 LOSS home Saint Mary’s; 16-6, 7-2 win home Portland): Lost at Santa Clara in game 3, which is a big loss for Gonzaga. Nice win in game 6 with San Francisco at home. Destroyed Loyola Marymount in game 9 at home. Massive home loss for conference standings to Saint Mary’s in game 9. Back at home for game 10 win with Portland. Beat Loyola Marymount on the road in game 11. Beat Santa Clara in a separation game 14 at home. Absolutely destroyed San Francisco the 3 seed by 30 on the road in game 15. Beat Saint Mary’s on the road in a dominant soul crushing win game 16.
Players and Coach: Ike is a powerful down low player with talent and footwork. Watson a great forward. Nembhard of course is an excellent guard transfer. Supporting cast is great, but they did not show in the UConn game which tells me they will struggle in the tournament. At one point, I thought they had 5 probably NBA players on the floor at once.

7 Seeds

Washington State. Kind of the ultimate college basketball team this year. Can lose to teams that have NBA Stars, but they also can beat them.
Prediction: 2nd Pac 12; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win at Arizona helps them a TON for NCAA seeding purposes (also they beat them at home). I don’t think the home upset against Washington hurts them. Next up the Pac 12 quarterfinals against the winner of the 7/10 game.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Washington State, if they perform in the Pac 12 tourney, is moving up from a 7 seed. If they lose in the quarterfinals, they are a 7 seed. Eliminated by Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. Want to avoid the quarterfinal upset. The semifinals will be good games.
Stats (3/7): 2nd Pac 12, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 44 (6-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 41 (SoS 83), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (10-4, 1-2 LOSS home Oregon; 10-5, 1-3 WIN at USC; 15-6, 6-4 WIN at Washington): Lost at home to Oregon in game 4. Great win at USC in game 5. Beat Washington on the road in game 11 to get to 7-4 and 3rd in the Pac 12. OUTSTANDING national recognition win AT ARIZONA to take the lead in the conference race in game 16. Then beaten at Arizona State in a major letdown game 17. Recovered and beat USC at home in game 18. And beat UCLA at home in game 19. Beaten at home by Washington in a game that says a bit more about Washington than them, to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: This is a really long organized capable team that will beat you with ball movement and several scorers. The coach is totally nondescript.

Nebraska. Good Nebraska team. A little undersized for the Big Ten. GREAT on defense. On the bubble.
Prediction: 6th Big 10; 11 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 4 Quad 1 Wins. Upset at Ohio State in a BAD tourney hopes loss. 12-8 and that should get them in the tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Got the 3 seed in a very poor at the middle of the top Big 10. Eliminated by Illinois in the Big 10 semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: They are in at a 8-11 seed.
Stats (3/10): T 3rd Big 10, Record 22-9 (12-8), NET 40 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 33 (SoS 72), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win home Rider; 5-0 win home Duquesne; 7-0 loss home Creighton). Beat everyone, including Duquesne a good mid major, early. Absolutely crushed by Creighton.
Conference (11: 13-4, 2-3 loss at Rutgers; 13-5, 3-4 win home Northwestern; 14-5, 4-4 loss at Maryland; 16-6, 6-5 loss at Illinois; 16-7, 6-6 loss at Northwestern): Lost at Minnesota in game 1, which do not bode well for their NIT hopes. But excellent wins at home against Michigan State, Indiana and Northwestern in games 2, 3 and 8. Then easily controlled at Wisconsin and Iowa in games 4 and 5, followed by another loss at Rutgers in game 6. Beaten at Maryland in game 9. Nice home win against Wisconsin in game 10. Games 12 and 13 losses at Illinois and NOrthwestern to drop below .500 in conference. Beat Michigan and Penn State at home in games 14 and 15. Beat Indiana on the road in a huge resume win to get to 9-7 in the Big 10. Dominating win at home over Minnesota in game 17. Upset at Ohio State in game 18. Beat Rutgers at home in game 19. Won at Michigan to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: Hoiberg I think does some really good things with the talent he has at Nebraska. Tominaga, the guard, is a very solid guard who can score but needs to develop his consistency and physicality in the Big 10. Do they have enough size to beat the big Big 10 teams? I don’t think so.

New Mexico. Hanging on on the bubble and UNLV might take their bid. 7 Mountain West teams?
Prediction: 6th MWC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 50%. Have lost 6 of their last 10 games, including AIR FORCE in game 15. They have at Utah State left. I think they are still in but need some tourney wins.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 12% STEAL. Definitely one of the favorites to get the AUTOBID, but it is tough.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:.
Stats (3/9): T 6th MWC, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 27 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 34 (SoS 89), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (9-1 win at New Mexico State). Very nice start at 12-1. They were in a close war at New Mexico State, which is a game with a ton of energy, but won.
Conference (13: 16-3, 4-2 WIN at San Jose State; 18-3, 6-2 LOSS home Boise State; 19-4, 7-3 LOSS home UNLV; 19-5, 7-4 WIN at Nevada; 20-5, 8-4 at San Diego State; 21-7, 9-6 at Boise State). Controlled at Colorado State in their conference opener, which isn’t unexpected. Then controlled Wyoming in game 2 at home. Outstanding dominant wins at home with San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada in games 4, 5 and 8, and on the road in game 6 at Air Force. Beat Nevada at home in game 8 easily. Beaten at home by Boise State and UNLV in games 9 and 11, real warning signs for this team. Excellent road win at Nevada in game 12. Beaten at San Diego State in game 13. Excellent home win against Colorado State to stay at 5 losses in game 14. Beaten by Air Force at home in a classic Richard Pitino loss in game 15. Beaten at Boise State in a separation loss game 16. Beat Fresno State at home in game 17. Beaten at Utah State to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Get to the line a lot. Jamal Mashburn Jr. is obviously talented. Jalen House is the leader without him. Dent also can score. They have some bigs and some talent. Pitino is a liability in close games.

Utah State. Keep on winning in the brutal Mountain West. Wins at UNLV and Boise State on the road.
Prediction: 2nd MWC; 8 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. They have only 4 losses in the Mountain West.
Conferene Tourney Outlook: Gonna be brutal. Eliminated by San Diego State in the MWC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 1st MWC, Record 26-5 (14-4), NET 32 (4-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 43 (SoS 90), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (6: 15-1, 3-0 WIN at UNLV; 19-2, 7-1 loss at San Diego State; 18-4, 7-3 home Boise State; 20-4, 8-3 WIN at Wyoming; 21-4, 9-3 loss at Colorado State; 21-5, 9-4 win home San Diego State): Outstanding last second win at UNLV in game 4. Then beaten at New Mexico and San Diego State in games 5 and 9. Absolutely blew out Boise State in game 11 at home in a really good standings win. Nic win in game 12 at Wyoming on the road. Beaten by almost 20 at Colorado State in game 13. Rebounded extremely well with a home win against San Diego State in game 14. Won at Fresno State in game 15. Beat Air Force at home in game 16. Won at San Jose State in game 17. Beat New Mexico at home to finish the conference at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Osobor is a double double machine to lead them, and may be the Mountain West player of the year. Falslev is a good shooter at guard. Brown can shoot it at times too at guard. Sprinkle is the name of their coach.

8 Seeds

Boise State. This team keeps winning games in the Mountain West, but might lose their last 2.
Prediction: 4th MWC; 10 Seed; NCAA First Four Win.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win over San Diego State puts them in the tournament, top 4 in the Mountain West.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Have clinched a top 5 seed with the separation win over New Mexico at home. They are a REALLY tough out in any tournament game. Of their 5 conference losses, 2 were to Utah State. Eliminated by New Mexico in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/8): T 2nd MWC, Record 22-9 (13-5), NET 28 (5-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 38 (SoS 60), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (2-1 neutral Virginia Tech; 2-2 neutral VCU; 3-2 neutral Butler; 3-3 home Saint Mary’s). Played an OK Virginia Tech team close, but were not able to measure up. Then won a back and forth game with fellow high mid major VCU on a neutral floor. Then got destroyed by Butler on a neutral floor. Nice win at home against an OK Saint Mary’s team.
Conference (6: 11-4, 2-0 WIN at Nevada; 12-4, 3-0 LOSS home UNLV; 12-5, 3-1 13-5, 4-1 WIN at Fresno State; 14-6, 5-2 WIN at New Mexico; 20-8, 11-4 home New Mexico): Road wins at San Jose State, Nevada, and Fresno State in games 1, 3, and 6. Disappointing loss in game 4 with UNLV at home. Then beat San Diego State at home in game 7 in a great win. Even better took out New Mexico on the road for their fourth conference road win. Beaten at Utah State in game 11. Crushed Fresno State and San Jose State in games 12 and 13. Won at Wyoming by 20 in game 14. Beat New Mexico at home in a key standings and seeding game 16. Beaten at home by Nevada in another key standings game 17, this time a loss. Won at San Diego State in game 18 to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is one of those fighter teams that is super hard to beat because of their effort, and they have enough talent to compete at the top. Abo is an NBA talent, physical and can move. Rice, the son of the coach, can really light it up. Rice, the dad, their head coach, seems capable.

Dayton. Dayton will be nervous on selection sunday with their 4 A10 losses. Must beat VCU at home.
Prediction: 1st A10; AUTOBID; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 95% IN. Beaten at Richmond, VCU, George Mason, and Loyola Chicago in conference, and in 3rd in the A10. Win home against VCU is massive for their at-large hopes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 40% STEAL. Will be the 2 or 3 seed. Very likely to win the A10 tournament. Richmond or Loyola Chicago may steal the A10 AUTOBID, but if Dayton lose in the tournament, they are in anyway given their NET ratings. Eliminated by Duquesne in the A10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: First they have to get into the tournament, which involves winning at least one game in the tournament, and probably beating Loyola Chicago. Dayton is the best non major conference team in America, if you count the Mountain West as a major conference (which it is). I think a 6 seed for a 21 NET team is totally reasonable and they will challenge the top teams. But they could be seeded lower if they lose early in the A10 tournament. They lost to Duquesne in the quarterfinals and now will be nervous on selection Sunday, but I think they are in.
Stats (3/8): 3rd A10, Record 24-6 (14-4), NET 21 (3-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 30 (SoS 87), Lunardi 7 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Northwestern; 1-1 win neutral LSU; 2-1 win neutral Saint John’s; 3-1 loss neutral Houston; 6-2 home win Troy). Bad bubble buster loss to Northwestern in their second game. Very close win over LSU despite being smaller. Then beat St. John’s pretty easily, and lost to Houston badly, but who wouldn’t. Controlled Troy easily.
Conference (10-2, 0-0 WIN at Davidson; 12-2, 2-0 WIN at Duquesne; 16-2, 6-0 loss at Richmond; 18-3, 8-1 WIN at St. Joseph’s; 19-3, 9-1 loss at VCU; 22-5, 12-3 at Loyola Chicago): Excellent road win in game 1 at Davidson, proving they are probably the class of the conference. Followed that with two wins over A10 top half teams in Massachusetts and at Duquesne in game 3. Easy win over Saint Louis in game 4 and at home with Rhode Island in game 5. Finally beaten at Richmond in game 7 in a key game for the AUTOBID. Beat St. Bonaventure at home in game 9. Road win at St. Joseph’s in game 10. 2nd conference loss at a game VCU in game 11. Beat Fordham in a close game in game 13. Beaten at George Mason in game 14 for their 3rd conference loss. Beat Davidson by 20 in game 15 at home. Beaten at Loyola Chicago in game 16 on the road for their 2nd loss in 3 games. Wiped out Saint Louis in game 17 on the road. Beat VCU at home in a really nice comeback win to finish the conference 14-4.
Players and Coach: Holmes is an excellent lean and long star player. Santos is very good too. So nice core and may outperform this early prediction. Grant is a good calm head coach.

Virginia. Big game next at Duke for NCAA seeding purposes.
Prediction: 3rd ACC; NCAA 2nd Round; 6 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 96% IN. Their NET is not outstanding, and their Ken Pom is worse, but they are winning a ton in the ACC and are the 3rd place ACC team. Might want to win their quarterfinal ACC game to be in for sure.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 20% STEAL. They have the 3 seed. As usual, a likely early round exit they are not coached for tournament wins, and no stars. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: People really have Virginia on the bubble, but I see them getting in almost no matter what happens. They were third in the ACC and don’t really have any bad losses at all. I think they get seeded high and everyone complains. But need a win against BC first.
Stats (3/9): 3rd ACC, Record 22-9 (13-7), NET 51 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 66 (SoS 77), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 3-0 win home Texas Southern; 4-1 win neutral West Virginia; 4-1 loss neutral Wisconsin; 5-1 win home Texas A&M; 9-1 loss at Memphis). They look very good early in the season. 10-1. Only loss early against a big athletic Florida team. Barely heldoff a undermanned West Virginia team, but that’s what Virginia does. Then got absolutely destroyed by a disciplined experienced Wisconsin team. Beat #14 Texas A&M pretty easily. Then blown out at Memphis at the end of December.
Conference (15: 12-5, 3-3 WIN at Georgia Tech; 14-5, 5-3 WIN at Louisville; 16-5, 7-3 WIN at Clemson; 17-5, 8-3 win home Miami; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Florida State; 19-5, 10-3 LOSS home Pitt; 20-8, 11-6 at Boston College): Blown out in game #2 at Notre Dame on the road. Wins in games 3 and 6 home with Louisville and Virginia Tech. Beaten at NC State and Wake Forest in games 4 and 5. Road wins at Georgia Tech and Louisville in games 7 and 9. Won game 8 with NC State at home. Beat Notre Dame in game 10 at home to get to 7-3 in the ACC. Road win at Clemson in game 11 to establish some room at the top of the ACC at 8-3. Home win against Miami in game 12. Excellent road win at Virginia Tech in game 13. They were 2-3 so 8 wins in a row. Then suddenly game 14 loss home against Pitt which happens to Virginia. Beat Wake Forest in game 15 at home. Absolutely blown out by 35 at Virginia Tech in game 16 which I’m gonna call a one-off. NOPE. Beaten at home by North Carolina the next game (17). Good road win at Boston College to kind of right the ship in game 18. Crushed at Duke in game 19 in a bad perception loss. Beat Georgia Tech at home to finish the conference at 13-7.
Players and Coach: No athletic bigs, but super organized and know how to play. Beekman is a serious force at guard. Dunn is a very good defensive player. McKneely a third solid guard. And the bigs can defend and are organized. Will find a lot of ways to win at times, and can lose any one game. Bennett is a regular season coaching genius!

Michigan State. 10-10. Lost first round to Minnesota in the Big 10 and miss the tournament? Is that possible?
Prediction: 5th Big 10; 9 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 60% IN. It’s Michigan State so absent a catastrophe they are in. They are potenteally mid-catastrophe. And tournament dangerous, always. .500 in the Big 10 is NOT good for them. Still have at Indiana in the finale which both teams really want.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 18% STEAL. 8 seed. Dangerous game against Minnesota in the 8/9 game and then they have Purdue. Izzo is a tourney coach. Dangerous for them as they have a target on their backs and they have proven themselves vulnerable. Eliminated by Purdue in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/10): T 6th Big 10, Record 18-13 (10-10), NET 23 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 19 (SoS 12), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (10: 0-0 loss to James Madison; 1-1 loss neutral Duke; 3-2 loss neutral Arizona; 4-5 win neutral Baylor). James Madison took them out, as they were way too casual outside of Tyson Walker. Against both Duke and Arizona (likely final four teams) they trailed the whole way and lost, but kept in touch. Totally controlled the game against a good Butler team. The absolutely blew away #6 Baylor on a neutral court. Home with Indiana State they were challenged but won going away at the end.
Conference (12: 4-4, 0-0 loss at Nebraska; 11-7, 3-4 WIN at Maryland; 13-8, 5-5 win home Maryland; 15-9, 7-6 WIN at Penn State; 17-9, 9-7 LOSS home Iowa): Lost at Nebraska, Northwestern, and Illinois in games 2, 4, and 5. Beat Rutgers and Minnesota at home in games 6 and 7. Big road win in game 8 at Maryland. Lost game 9 at Wisconsin. Game 11 win at home with Maryland. Beaten by Minnesota in game 12 to drop to 6-6 in the Big 10. Great home win against Illinois to get back to 7-6. Wins at Penn State and Michigan to get to 9-6 with 5 games to go. Then beaten at home by Iowa AND Ohio State in games 16 AND 17 which does NOT help them. 3 losses in a row losing at Purdue in game 18. Beat Northwestern in a very close one at home in game 19, adrecovery game for this team. Lost at Indiana to finish the conference season 10-10.
Players and Coach: They play an insanely tough schedule. It’s crazy. Lots of experience. Izzo. Walker Hall Hoogard Holloman. Not huge. No real bigs. Athletic 6-5 freshman guard Carr will help. Another freshman guard Fears as backup at point.

NCAA Tourney Round One (teams 33-64 in the tournament)

9 Seeds

Northwestern. They keep winning games. Dealing with injuries late.
Prediction: 4th Big 10; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 85% IN. 4 Quad 1 wins helps. They are very likely to get an at-large bid now.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 27% STEAL. Buie by himself can win the Big 10 tourney. I don’t think they can beat both Illinois and Purdue in 2 straight games. Got the double bye and the 4 seed, and will probably be in the semifinals against Illinois and Purdue and lose. But the Big 10 can provide surprises of course. Eliminated by Wisconsin in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: I’m pretty sure they are in unless they lose in the quarterfinals badly but I still have them on the bubble. Northwestern is dealing with a lot of injuries and may get seeded lower as a result. Need victories in the Big 10 tourney to sustain the 7 seed. With the Wisconsin loss they do have to pay attention on selection sunday but they are in. Will be an 8 or 9 seed probably.
Stats (3/9) T 3rd Big 10, Record 21-10 (12-8), NET 50 (4-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 42 (SoS 52), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference: (5: 4-0 loss neutral Mississippi State; 7-1 LOSS home Chicago State; 7-2 at DePaul; 8-2 neutral Arizona State). They beat Dayton, who is supposed to be good. Led early against Mississippi State, but got worn down. Blew out Arizona State. But REALLY bad home loss to Chicago State. Won at DePaul (big deal).
Conference (13: 5-1, 0-0 win home Purdue; 10-3, 1-1 win home Michigan State; 11-3, 2-1 WIN at Penn State; 13-4, 4-2 loss at Nebraska; 13-5, 4-3 win home Illinois; 17-8, 8-6 at Indiana): OUTSTANDING home wins against Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Ohio State in games 1, 3, 8, and 9. Blowout loss at Illinois. Close road win at Penn State game 4. Close losses at Wisconsin and Nebraska in games 5 and 7. Close win home against Maryland in game 6. Took Purdue to OT on the road in game 10. Beaten in game 11 at Minnesota on the road. Beat Penn State at home in game 13. Beaten at Rutgers in game 14 to fall to 8-6. Nice conference road win at Indiana in game 15. Win at Michigan to get to 10-6 in conference. Another road win at Maryland in game 17 and they are taking care of business. Beaten at home by Iowa in game 18 in a bad loss. Beaten at Michigan State for their 2nd consecutive loss in game 19. Beat Minnesota at home to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: Northwestern has Boo Buie and a supporting cast that is obviously good based on early season results. They lost Berry one of their key guys in mid-February which really hurts them. I initially thought they were not going to be good, but started the season 6-1 with excellent wins. They are in the tourney as of now. Chris Collins is a very experienced Big Ten coach at this point that coaches teams up.

Nevada. I saw them live. They have NBA talent and teams will look past them. Major tourney dark horse.
Prediction: 3rd MWC; 9 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 80% IN. Outstanding wins at Colorado State and at Boise State, proving this team is REALLY REALLY good. Also beat UNLV in their last 2 games.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30%. They are a VERY tough out with their NBA level guards. Eliminated by Colorado State in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 2nd MWC, Record 26-6 (13-5), NET 31 (7-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 35 (SoS 93), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 win at Washington; 10-1 win neutral TCU; 11-1 win neutral Georgia Tech). Nevada is a legitimate tournament team that could fall back and out, but I think they have enough talent and athletes to get in. They certainly looked the part against a fairly average Washington team. What they did to win at Washington was execute, over and over again. Excellent bubble win controlling TCU on a neutral court.
Conference (9: 15-1, 1-0 LOSS home Boise State; 15-4, 2-3 win home Colorado State; 18-5, 5-4 win home San Diego State; 19-5, 6-4 LOSS home New Mexico; 19-6, 6-5 WIN at UNLV): Beaten at home by Boise State in what I will call an anomaly. No shame in the loss at San Diego State in game 3. Nice controlling wins in game 6 and 8 home with Colorado State and San Jose State. NCAA worthy win home with San Diego State in game 10. Brutal conference standings loss in game 11 to New Mexico at home. Beat Wyoming at home in game 13. Won at San Jose State in game 14. PHENOMENAL WIN on a last second half court heave by Lucas to beat Colorado State on the road. Beat Fresno State at home in game 16. Another PHENOMENAL win in game 17 to win at Boise State where no one has won this year. Beat UNLV at home to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is a very well coached and talented team that could make a run to the Sweet 16 with some upsets. Davidson is a rapidly improving forward learning to compete in the Mountain West. Lucas, a guard, is their best player. Blackshear is another good, big, talented guard who looks like an NBA player.

Grand Canyon. Dangerous team in the tournament even though undersized because of the talent level.
Prediction: 1st WAC; AUTOBID; 9 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. Should probably get a win in the WAC semis to confirm.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 65% IN. Tarleton State and Seattle U are dangerous. They are kind of lucky 2 seed Tarleton is not eligible for the post season. So they just have to get to the final. They should win the AUTOBID. If not, and 2 late losses show it is possible, some at-large team will pay, because this team is probably getting in anyway.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 1st WAC, Record 27-4 (17-3), NET 53 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 56 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 12 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral San Francisco; 3-0 loss neutral South Carolina; 6-1 win home San Diego State; 7-1 win at Liberty). Beat a good San Francisco and San Diego State but lost to South Carolina in a non blowout loss. Very nice win at Liberty who is a fellow tournament team.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at 2 seed Tarleton State in game 17. Then really upset by Abilene Christian in game 17 on the road – UGLY. Beat UT Rio Grande Valley in game 18 at home. Beat Stephen F. Austin at home in game 19. Beat Cal Baptist on the road to finish at 17-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Probably NBA pick in Dion Grant Foster. Nice point guard in Harrison who won’t make mistakes. Averaging 20+ early. Will win games because Grant Foster is the best player on the floor in any given game. They might get a much higher seed by end of the year.

Florida Atlantic. I think if they avoid the upset in the 1st round of the American they are a LOCK.
Prediction: 2nd American; 8 Seed; Second Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. Took care of business in their last week, including beating Memphis in a controlling win.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. Will face a real fight for the AUTOBID with multiple teams. Eliminated by Temple in the American semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: They are almost certainly in. They beat a TON of teams with tourney aspirations. But a good performance in the Ameircan tourney will help and maybe the American gets only 2 bids and they are the 3rd team?
Stats (3/9): 2nd American, Record 24-7 (14-4), NET 33 (2-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 38 (SoS 91), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 2-1 win neutral Butler; 3-1 win neutral Texas A&M; 5-1 win home Liberty; 7-1 LOSS neutral Illinois; 9-2 WIN neutral Arizona). This team is tested and excellent. Led all the way against really good Butler and Texas A&M in a real war. Lost to Illinois in another war. GREAT win on a neutral floor against ARIZONA. Controlled Virginia Tech, Liberty, Charleston, and St. Bonaventure. Held to a close game in their conference opener at home with East Carolina.
Conference (7: 11-4, 1-1 WIN at Tulane; 16-4, 6-1 win home North Texas; 18-4, 8-1 loss at UAB; 18-5, 8-2 WIN at Wichita State; 20-6, 10-3 win home SMU; 21-6, 11-3 lost at Memphis): Didn’t see their first conference loss. Barely escaped Tulane on the road in game 3. Starting to control the conference with wins in game 5 and 8 with Wichita State and North Texas at home. Beaten at UAB in game 10 to fall to 8-2 and 3rd in conference. OT Road win at Wichita State in game 11. Beat Temple at home in game 12 to get to 10-2. Good separation win home against 4 seed SMU in game 14. Beaten at Memphis in game 15 in a bad loss if they lose to them again at home. Beat Tulane at home in game 16. Excellent controlling win over Memphis to finish the conference at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Final four team from last year, with EVERYONE back. Won against an excellent non-conference schedule. Organized and capable and well coached with everyone playing their roles well. Goldin is a huge controlled center. Davis is an NBA level guard.

10 Seeds

Indiana State. 26-5 on the year. Wow.
Prediction: 1st MVC; 10 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 65% IN. They lost in the tourney final to Drake I think they are still in.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 0% AUTOBID chance. They were the 1 seed, and beat the 9 seed Missouri State and the 4 seed Northern Iowaa, and lost by 4 final to Drake.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/3): 1st MVC, Record 26-5 (17-3), NET 29 (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 45 (SoS 138), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (6-1 win at Bradley; 11-1 loss at Michigan State). They beat Bradley and then they were really in the game at Michigan State until the end.
Conference (15-3, 6-1 WIN at Murray State; 17-3, 8-1 win home Bradley; 19-3, 10-1 win home Drake): Only conference loss through 11 games is Drake on the road. Controlling win at Murray State in game 8 to go 7-1 in conference. Two games later, really nice conference standings win in OT against Bradley at home. In a real close war with Drake at home in game 12, and won to get to a 2 game lead for 1st in the MVC. Won at Valparaiso in game 17 to get to 14-3. Won at home against UIC in game 18. Holding serve with another win on the road at Evansville in game 19. Beat Murray State at home to finish 17-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Indiana State has a true point center in Avila, who is a stat monster in the MVC. Swope is a fast point guard that can score. Larry is a good scorer for them. Team passes the ball well, is well organized and disciplined. They can shoot the three too. They will definitely compete in the MVC.

Colorado. Back in 3rd place where they belong honestly.
Prediction: 3rd Pac 12; NIT 1 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Really on a big surge at the end of the season with 6 straight wins.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 22% STEAL. Clinched the 3 seed. Very dangerous tournament team with all their talent. Definitely 2nd most likely to beat Arizona even though they lost to them by 40. Eliminated by Oregon in the Pac 12 final.
Stats (3/9): 3rd Pac 12, Record 22-9 (13-7), NET 27 (2-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 27 (SoS 79), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Richmond; 4-0 loss neutral Florida State; 5-1 loss at Colorado State; 6-2 win neutral Miami). Colorado is ranked in the top 20 early, and you can see why. They destroyed #15 Miami in their ninth game. They have a lot of the components, but barely beat Richmond and then lost to Florida State on a neutral floor. Richmond is always a tough game and they looked good in a real war of a game early. Florida State is also always a tough game and they lost pretty badly. Then lost a very competitive game at Colorado State.
Conference (10: 11-4, 2-2 loss at California; 12-5, 3-3 win home Oregon; 14-5, 5-3 WIN at Washington; 16-7, 7-5 LOSS home Arizona; 16-8, 7-6 loss at UCLA; 16-9, 7-7 WIN at USC): Eked out a home win missing some players against Washington. Then lost to Arizona by 40 – yikes! Lost to Arizona State in game 4. Terrible loss at Cal in game 5. Rallied with wins home with USC and Oregon in games 6 and 7. Road win at Washington in game 9. Beaten at home by Arizona in game 13. Fell to .500 in the Pac 12, which is NOT good in game 14 at UCLA on the road. Road win at USC, just barely, in game 15. Beat Utah by 24 at home in game 16 in a key bubble game. Beat Cal and Stanford in games 17 and 18 at home. Won their 5th straight in a massive win at Oregon in game 19. Won at Oregon State to finish the conference season at 13-7.
Coach and Players: I saw this team live at Washington and they are REALLY good. On a good night, hard to beat. A near NBA level star in Simpson. Williams is a legit NBA level big freshman guard. Da Silva is a solid big. Lampkin is a fun giant big. Other size down low, defense, experience.

Texas. They are at the magic Big 12 line of .500 in conference. IN.
Prediction: 9th Big 12; 10 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 65% IN. Beaten at Kansas and at Baylor. .500 in the Big 12, which will get them in the tournament.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: Can beat anyone in the Big 12. Seeding TBD. Eliminated by 10 seed Kansas State in the Big 12 1st Round.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Texas is probably on the good side of the bubble, even with the Kansas State loss. But further analysis to be done.
Stats (3/9): 8th Big 12, Record 20-11 (9-9), NET 26 (5-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 25 (SoS 28), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Louisville; 4-0 loss neutral UConn; 6-1 loss at Marquette; 7-2 win neutral LSU). Played a very close game with a game Louisville in a kind of bad performance, and won on a buzzer beater. Then played an excellent UConn team well in a close and fun early season loss. Then absolutely destroyed by Marquette in a game they did not play well. Controlled LSU.
Conference (8: 11-2, 0-0 LOSS home Texas Tech; 13-5, 2-3 WIN at Oklahoma; 14-5, 3-3 loss at BYU; 14-6, 3-4 LOSS home Houston; 14-7, 3-5 WIN at TCU). Two home losses and two road wins by game 6. Surprised at home in their conference opener by Texas Tech. Great last possession win home with Baylor in game 5. Beaten at BYU in game 7. Real war to OT home with Houston in game 8, but lost. Nice conference road win at TCU in game 9. Beaten at Houston in game 12. Nice home bubble win against Kansas State in game 13. Beaten at Kansas in game 14 to fall to 6-8 in the Big 12. Then great win at Texas Tech in game 15 in a massive game for their NCAA hopes. Beat Oklahoma State at home in game 16. Led against Baylor but got controlled in the end on the road in game 17. Beat Oklahoma at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Abmas is one of the NCAA’s all time leading scorers. Shedrick is really really big and long probably a good NBA player. Early dark horse for player of the year? He looked awesome. Mitchell is averaging almost a double double. Cunningham and Hunter are also very nice players.

Drake. Drake is the best mid-major bubble team on the outside looking in right now. I think they should be in but what I think doesn’t matter. Could use the MVC title.
Prediction: 2nd MVC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Four Win.
At-Large Outlook: 50% IN. Really bad NCAA hopes loss at Northern Iowa late. Drake should win their last game home against Bradley and get to 25-6. Then win 2 games in the tourney and lose. 27-7. Is the MVC a 2 bid league? I think it is, but Drake has to get into the field and Indiana State has to stay there. Drake has a win over Nevada which is outstanding.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID. Beat 10 seed Evansville, 3 seed Bradley and 1 seed Indiana State to get the AUTOBID.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 2nd MVC, Record 25-6 (16-4), NET 48 (3-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 55 (SoS 126), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (11-2, 2-0 win home Illinois State; 12-2, 3-0 loss at Belmont; 13-3, 4-1 WIN at Southern Illinois; 18-4, 9-2 loss at Indiana State; 19-5, 10-3 WIN at Bradley). Absolutely blew out Illinois State in game 3 in conference. Then absolutely blown out 1 game later at Belmont on the road. Won at Southern Illinois in game 6. They really fought back from down 20 at Indiana State showing they are 1 or 2 in the MVC. Second place separation game winning at Bradley in game 14. Bubble loss at Northern Iowa in game 18 that really hurts their NCAA hopes even though Northern Iowa is good. Barely won at UIC in game 19. Beat Bradley at home to finish the conference at 16-4.
Players and Coach: They have stacked up a bunch of wins in the non-conference and should win a lot in the MVC. Indiana State might take their bid, but it should be close. Tucker Devries, son of the coach, a big and long shooting guard, is their lead scorer. Wright is another really good guard. Brody is really huge on the inside for the MVC. Gonna be hard to keep them out of the tournament. Devries is in his 6th season as coach and does have an excellent overall record.

11 Seeds

Oregon. What is their 2nd best win? At Washington? Neutral win against Georgia?
Prediction: 4th Pac 12; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 20% OUT. Lost 2 key games at the end at Arizona and home against Colorado. Beat Utah, and has a rematch looming with Utah in the Pac 12 quarterfinals. Must win for any NCAA hopes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% STEAL. AUTOBID. 4 seed. Could steal the AUTOBID from Arizona in the tourney, but for a 4 seed they have very little chance, and would have to beat Colorado or Washington State in the final too. Beat 5 seed UCLA, 1 seed Arizona and 3 seed Colorado to win the Pac 12 tournament.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: Beating UCLA in the Pac 12 quarterfinals is a MUST win for them and their NCAA tourney hopes.
Stats (3/9): 4th Pac 12, Record 20-11 (12-8), NET 68 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 69 (SoS 75), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 win neutral Georgia; 4-0 loss neutral Santa Clara; 4-2 win home Michigan; 7-2 loss neutral Syracuse): Outplayed Georgia early and won. Another nice win, at home, against Michigan in a bubble busting game.
Conference (8: 10-3, 2-0 WIN at Washington; 11-3, 3-0 WIN at Washington State; 14-5, 5-3 LOSS home Arizona; 14-6, 6-3 WIN at USC; 15-6, 5-3 loss at UCLA): Led the whole way with USC at home. Much closer with UCLA, Washington, and Washington State but won all three. Beaten at Colorado and Utah in games 6 and 7. Beaten at home by conference favorite Arizona in game 9. Road win at USC in game 10 to get to 7-3. Home win in game 11 with Washington. Good win on the road at Stanford in game 15. Lost at Cal in a brutal NCAA bubble loss. Beat Oregon State in game 17 at home. Lost at Arizona and home to Colorado in games 18-19 in games that show where they blong in conference. Beat Utah in a bubble saving last game when Utah missed a wide open 3 at the end to finish the conference at 12-8.
Coach and Players: Were missing three players, including two 7 footers, to injury. They are VERY small due to injuries, and I think that drops them down. Georgia transfer Akuendo should help once healthy. Couisinard, a forward, is also a good player. Shelstad the guard is really developing. Riggsby is a crazy good shooter. Dana Altman is still an excellent in-game coach. They should be top half of the conference, IF they get all their players back.

NC State. Definitely not in the top of the ACC.
Prediction: 8th ACC; NIT 6 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 1% OUT. 10 seed. 2nd round game with Syracuse is a must win as is every game.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% STEAL. NC State plays Louisivlle in Round 1. Other ACC teams have more stars. Likely out early.
Seeding and Bubble: Must win against Louisville in Round 1, for the NCAAs and probably to stay in the NIT. Beat Louisville! Next up is 7 seed Syracuse in a likely loser out game, certainly for the NCAAs and maybe also for the NIT for NC State. Beat Syracuse! Next up is 2 seed Duke! Massive opportunity game for them. Beat Duke! Is it enough to get into the tournament at 19-14? I don’t think so!
Stats (3/9): 10th ACC, Record 17-14 (9-11), NET 80 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 76 (SoS 69), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (7: 3-0 win neutral Vanderbilt; 4-0 loss neutral BYU; 5-0 loss at Ole Miss; 7-2 loss home at Tennessee). Controlled the games against Vanderbilt and UT Martin on a neutral floor. Then led early against BYU but wore down and lost by a lot. Then got killed by Ole Miss on the road. In the game at Tennessee but lost.
Conference (15: 4-2, 0-0 WIN at Boston College; 9-3, 1-0 WIN at Notre Dame; 11-3, 3-0 LOSS home North Carolina; 11-4, 3-1 WIN at Louisville; 13-4, 5-1 LOSS home Virginia Tech; 15-7, 7-4 LOSS home Pitt): They won their first three road games at Boston College, Notre Dame, and Louisville, and beat Virginia and Wake Forest at home in games 3 and 6 in very nice wins. Lost by 15 at home to North Carolina in game 4 and by 12 at home to Virginia Tech in game 7. Lost a close one at Virginia and Syracuse in games 8 and 9. Won games 10 and 11 with Miami and Georgia Tech at home. 3rd home loss in conference with Pitt in game 12. Lost at Wake Forest in game 13. Excellent road win in game 14 at Clemson to get to 8-6. Beaten at home in game 15 by fellow bubbler Syracuse. Beat Boston College at home in game 16. Beaten at Florida State and North Carolina in game 17 and 18. Beaten at home by Duke in game 19. Lost at Pitt to finish the conference at 9-11.
Players and Coach: Jayden Taylor maybe their best player as a long guard. Horne is scoring a ton for them. Burns is the nations most fun big man. Keatts is maybe the least well known major conference coach, but he has been there 7 years already.

11 Seeds – First Four

Clemson. They have too many super high quality wins to not be in the tournament, but maybe?.
Prediction: 4th ACC; 8 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 80%. Clemson has a GREAT non-conference record, and are at 11-8 in the ACC which is a pretty good record. The road win at North Carolina is a GREAT resume win. May need a tourney win.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. Got the 6 seed. IF they get to the quarterfinals their game against Virginia could be an elimination game. Eliminated by Boston College in the 2nd round of the ACC tournament.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 5th ACC, Record 21-10 (11-9), NET 26 (5-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 24 (SoS 33), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral Davidson; 5-0 win at Alabama; 6-0 win at Pitt; 7-0 win home South Carolina; 8-0 win neutral TCU). Clemson won the early Asheville tournament, beating UAB and Davidson. Then won at Alabama, home South Carolina and neutral with TCU. Starting 8-0, with four major conference wins, means they are moving up in my rankings after I thought there were pretty bad at the beginning of the year.
Conference (12: 6-0, 1-0 WIN at Pitt; 12-4, 2-3 LOSS home Georgia Tech; 12-5, 2-4 WIN at Florida State; 14-6, 4-5 LOSS home Virginia; 14-7, 4-6 WIN at North Carolina; 15-7, 5-6 WIN at Syracuse; 16-7, 6-6 home Miami): Won at Pitt in their conference opener and at Florida State in game 7, both nice wins. Controlled at Miami and Virginia Tech in games 2 and 3. Beat Boston College at home without Post in game 4. Lost at home to Georgia Tech in game 6. Almost beat Duke on the road in game 8. Beat Louisville in game 9 at home. Beaten by Virginia in a tough bubble loss for them to drop to 4-6 in conference. Outstanding road wins at North Carolina and Syracuse in games 11 and 12. Beat Miami at home in game 13. Beaten at home by NC State in game 14 in a BAD bubble loss. Road win at Georgia Tech in game 15. Beat Florida State and Pitt at home in games 16 and 17 which are both good bubble wins. Then beaten at Notre Dame in a bad bubble loss game 18. Key recovery win over Syracuse at home to get to 11 wins with one to go in game 19. Beaten at Wake Forest to finish the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach: They have a really big front line, led by the center Hall and the forward Shieffelin who are good. But lacking in high major physicality and it is wearing them down.

Colorado State. Colorado State is in DEEP trouble, despite the GREAT nonconference.
Prediction: 5th MWC; 11 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 52% IN. 7 seed with a brutal quarterfinal with Nevada looming.
Conference Tourney Outlook: They will be the 6-7 seed in the Mountain West Tournament. Hard to win the Mountain West from that position. Too many tough games.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 6th MWC, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 36 (5-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 36 (SoS 64), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (6: 4-0 win neutral Boston College; 5-0 win neutral Creighton; 6-0 win home Colorado; 7-0 win neutral Washington; 9-0 LOSS home Saint Mary’s). Absolutely dominated my preseason NCAA Champion pick Creighton on a neutral floor. Beat game Colorado and Washington teams, but just barely. Then they lost at home against a Saint Mary’s team who really came to play. Controlled New Mexico in their conference opener at home.
Conference (6: 15-3, 3-2 loss at Nevada; 15-5, 3-4 win home San Diego State; 16-5, 4-4 WIN at Fresno State; 19-5, 7-4 loss at San Diego State; 19-6, 7-5 win home Utah State): Pushed, but beat UNLV at home in game 5. They lost their first four conference road games at Utah State, Boise State, Nevada and Wyoming. Excellent home win against San Diego State in game 8 to get back to .500 in conference. First conference road win at Fresno State. Beaten at San Diego State in game 12 to drop to 7-5. Rebounded nicely to beat Utah State by 20 in game 13. Beaten on the last possession at New Mexico in game 14. Beaten on the last possession at home by Nevada in game 16. Beat Wyoming in game 17 at home. Won at Air Force to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Well coached, athletic. Stevens, the point guard, is a potential All American, and shoots the 3 like crazy and has almost 8 assists a game (3rd in the nation). Clifford, another guard, is really developing. Medved is one of the hottest young coaches in America.

Texas A&M. Really experience capable team that can beat anyone. Inconsistent as hell.
Prediction: 8th SEC; NIT 1 Seed
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Lost the opportunity game to South Carolina at home. Finally ended their 5 game losing streak of pretty bad losses, and won their first test game in the final 3 at Georgia on the road. Beat Mississippi State at home in their second test game. Have at Ole Miss to see if they are in or out, plus the tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% STEAL. Inconsistent. Taylor is a great player to have in the conference tourney, but as the 6 seed, they will have to beat the 3, 2 and 1 in the SEC. Yikes. Better to move up. Eliminated by Florida in the SEC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th SEC, Record 18-13 (9-9), NET 49 (6-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 52 (SoS 18), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 5-0 loss neutral Florida Atlantic; 5-1 win neutral Iowa State; 6-1 loss at Virginia; 7-2 loss home Memphis; 7-3 loss neutral Houston). Controlled the full game against a probable tournament team in Penn State. Then played from behind against an apparently excellent Florida Atlantic, but were in the game. Nice come from behind win against a decent Iowa State team. Then lost at Virginia fairly easily and lost to Memphis at home. Played Houston to a one or two possession game and lost.
Conference (13: 9-4, 0-0 LOSS home LSU, 9-6, 0-2 win home Kentucky; 10-7, 1-3 WIN at LSU; 12-7, 3-3 LOSS home Ole Miss; 14-8, 5-4 win home Tennessee; 15-8, 6-4 LOSS at Vanderbilt; 15-9, 6-5 at Alabama): Terrible conference opening loss at home to LSU. Played Auburn very close on the road in game 2. Beat Kentucky at home in game 3 in OT in a real war. Then lost on their last possession at Arkansas in game 4. Really nice rebound win at LSU in game 5. Beat Missouri at home in game 6. Then beaten at home by Ole Miss in game 7. Won very close bubble game at home against Florida in game 8 . Win at Missouri in game 9. Excellent blowout win over TENNESSEE in game 10, proving their tourney worthiness. Followed by a TERRIBLE road loss at Vanderbilt in game 11 to fall back to 6-5. Beaten at Alabama in game 12 to drop to .500. TERRIBLE home loss to Arkansas in game 13. Beaten at Tennessee badly in game 14. Beaten at home by South Carolina in game 15. Held court by winning at Georgia in game 16, a nice win. Beat Mississippi State in a GREAT bubble win in game 17. Beat fading Ole Miss by 26 on the road to finish 9-9 in the SEC, and they are on the bubble.
Players and Coach: Taylor is the SEC preseason player of the year. Radford is another really nice guard. Coleman is an excellent college forward that is a tough guard. What their supporting cast does in any game wiill determine a lot. Buzz Williams is a very experienced capable coach.

St. John’s. They might sneak in with a good conference tournament.
Prediction: 7th Big East; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 34% OUT. Great home win over Creighton, and a road win at Butler, helps their resume. If they get to the final and lose, the might make the NCAA tournament. Maybe with a semifinal loss.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 13%. I’m not a believer in this team. They might actually NOT want the 5 seed so they can get one more win for their resume to make the NCAAs. As with all Big East teams, will need 4 tough wins to get the AUTOBID. Beat Seton Hall. Eliminated by UConn in the Big East semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 5th Big East, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 37 (4-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 32 (SoS 35), Lunardi 1st OUT
Non-Conference (13: 1-0 loss neutral Michigan; 1-1 win neutral North Texas; 1-2 loss neutral Dayton; 2-2 win neutral Utah; 4-2 win at West Virginia). They lost badly to Michigan, really struggled with a good North Texas team, lost to Dayton, and beat Utah easily. Decent win with West Virginia on the road.
Conference (10: 10-4, 2-1 WIN at Villanova; 11-4, 3-1 win home Providence; 12-6, 4-3 LOSS home Marquette; 12-7, win 4-4 home Villanova; 13-8, 5-5 LOSS home UConn; 14-11, 6-8 home Seton Hall): Beat Butler, Villanova and Providence, all rated above them, in games 3-5. Almost won on the road at Creighton in game 6. Blown out at Seton Hall in game 7, and then beaten by Marquette at home in game 8. Beat Villanova easily in game 9, putting them above the bubble line. Loss at Xavier in game 10. Beaten in game 11 by UConn at home. Beat DePaul in game 12 at home. Beaten at Marquette and Providence in games 13 and 14 to drop to 6-8 in conference. Bad tourney chances home loss to Seton Hall in game 15. Won at Georgetown in game 16. GREAT bubble win home with Creighton in game 17 so maybe? Road win at Butler in game 18 also helps a LOT! Wiped out DePaul in game 19. Beat Georgetown to finish the Big East at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Rick Pitino is coaching this team and has a bunch of new players so anything can happen. Soriano, at center, is a giant NBA body who is a double double machine and by himself creates problems even in the Big East. Jenkins has been coming on at guard. But don’t bet against a Pitino team as I am here. Having Soriano as your horse makes a big difference but is it enough in the Big East?

12 Seeds

Samford. The class of the Southern. Might steal an at-large if they lose in the Southern tourney Final, but it doesn’t look like it with their NET at 80. Have to win their tournament.
Prediction: 1st Southern; AUTOBID; 11 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 3%. They had more of a chance until they lost at Mercer and at Wofford. Have to win the conference tournament.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% IN AUTOBID! Clinched the 1 seed. Samford lost a 2nd conference game at Mercer and a 3rd loss at Wofford which really hurt their at-large chances. UNC Greensboro and Chattanooga are their rivals for the AUTOBID. Beat 8 seed Mercer, 5 seed Furman, and 7 seed East Tennessee State to win the Southern AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Southern, Record 26-5 (15-3), NET 80 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 87 (SoS 250+), Lunardi 13 Seed
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Purdue). Samford had all kinds of problems with Purdue, who were on fire and very mad after going out as the #1 seed last year in the tournament They were slaughtered.
Conference (15-2, 4-0 WIN at Western Carolina; 20-3, 9-1 WIN at UNC Greensboro; 22-3, 11-1 win home Western Carolina): In a real war at Western Carolina, and won. Then handled 2 seed UNC Greensboro in game 10 to get to 9-1. Crushed Western Carolina to get to 22-3. Beat ETSU at home in game 16. Lost at Wofford in game 17 by 20+ that I will atrribute to them having clinched. Beat the Citadel at home to finish 15-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: They are an excellent offensive team that scores a ton and knows how to move the ball. Good upset pick in the NCAA tournament if they get there if the other team isn’t too big. On a 15 game winning streak when I saw them. They have a really nice big in Achor who had 35 at Western Carolina who looks major conference ready and WILL be a major transfer portal target. Bucky McMillan coached only in high school before this job, and looks like a child, but is just absolutely winning. Future major conference coach.

James Madison. 28-3, with two losses to Appalachian State.
Prediction: 2nd Sun Belt; AUTOBID; 11 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 49% OUT. Hard to keep a 28 win team out of the tourney with a win at Michigan State and over Akron.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% chance AUTOBID! 2 seed so have to beat Troy then Appalachian State to get the AUTOBID. The semis and the final in the Sun Belt will be wars as probably only one bid from the conference. Beat 10 seed Marshall, 11 seed Texas State, and 4 seed Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt AUTOBID.
Stats (3/1): 2nd Sun Belt, Record 28-3 (15-3), NET 52 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 61 (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 WIN at Michigan State; 4-0 win neutral Southern Illinois; 5-0 win neutral Fresno State; 21-3 win home Akron). James Madison beat Michigan State, and started 6-0 so I’m putting them in the tourney from the Sun Belt as the autobid. Dismantled, then held off at the end, a Southern Illinois team who is reasonably good. Excellent bubble win over MAC leader Akron in the February MAC/Sun Belt challenge.
Conference (18-2, 6-2 loss at Appalachian State): Lost both games with Appalachian State, in close games. Won at Georgia Southern in their 2nd of 4 road games to end the year to get to 13-3 in conference. Won at Georgia State in game 17. Won at Coastal Carolina in game 18 to finish 15-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not huge. Edwards is a midsized excellent player that plays like a west coast NBA player. More a college basketball team that can execute, but have talent.

Duquesne. Had them much higher at the beginning of the year, and at the end they are coming up
Prediction: 9th A10; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 2% Chance. If they won out and got to the final they would be like 24-12. That might get them in.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% OUT. 6 seed. Await the winner of the 11/14 game. Two massive opportunity wins at George Mason and at VCU at the end of the regular season. Definitely a mid pack team with a chance of stealing the AUTOBID.
Stats (3/9): 6th A10, Record 20-11 (10-8), NET 90 (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 98 (SoS 96), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 win neutral Charleston; 4-1 loss at Nebraska). Excellent guards should help them have a good season in the Atlantic 10. Came ready to play against Charleston. They look very solid and physical enough to be a threat in any game, and they rallied big time to really dominate a very good Charleston team. Lost to Nebraska in a game they were controlled. I think they are gonna be fine, because Nebraska played really well in that game.
Conference (7: 9-4, 0-1 loss at Loyola Chicago; 9-5, 0-2 LOSS home Dayton; 12-8, 2-5 WIN at Rhode Island; 13-9, 3-6 WIN at St. Bonaventure; 16-10, 6-7 at Fordham): Lost conference opener at Loyola Chicago which will hurt their conference standing. Controlled at home by Dayton in game 3. Lost at St. Joseph’s in game 5 to go 0-5. Beat Fordham at home to get to 2-5 in game 7. Nice conference road wins at Rhode Island and at St. Bonaventure in games 8 and 10. Beat St. Joseph’s in a nice win at home in game 12. Beaten at Fordham to fall to 6-8 in conference and they are fading. Beat LaSalle at home in game 15. Won at both George Mason and VCU in games 16 and 17 in GREAT bubble wins. Finshed the conference with a win at home against George Washington to finish 10-8.
Players and Coach: Grant is the current A10 career scoring leader for active players. Clark is also a scorer for them. Dambrot is an older experienced coach.

UAB. Right when I put them in the NIT they lost at home to Rice by 23.
Prediction: 5th American; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 4%. They have beaten Memphis, Drake, Maryland and FAU in their season, but have 11 losses. But those 4 wins make them worth a look. But really they are on the NIT bubble at this point absent a massive win streak.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 13% STEAL. They home against SMU left. Proving themselves as worthy mid to upper table team in the conference regular season.
Stats (3/9): 4th American, Record 20-11 (12-6), NET 116 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 123 (SoS 97), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 WIN neutral Maryland). Beat Maryland in a neutral site game, but did not look good doing so.
Conference (12-7, 4-2 win home Memphis; 13-7, 5-2 WIN at North Texas; 14-8, 6-3 win home Florida Atlantic; 17-9, 9-4 WIN at Tulane; 18-10, 10-5 loss at Memphis): In a very close game in their conference opener at UTSA, they managed to win. Excellent home win against Memphis in game 7. Game 8 very close OT win at North Texas which separates them from UNT in conference. One possession loss at SMU in game 9. Great home win against Florida Atlantic in game 10. Won at Tulane in game 14 to get to 10-4. They lost to Rice and Wichita State in game 13 and 15 and their NIT is OVER. Beaten at Memphis in game 16. Blew out Temple in game 17. Beat SMU at home in a major seedings win and to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: UAB does NOT look smart, at all. Vasquez is a good scorer at forward. Lendeborg another big can score in conference. Gaines is an athletic point who can create for his team. I think they do pretty well in the American, but there isn’t a lot to like about the team. Kennedy is their coach and fairly unknown.

13 Seeds

Western Kentucky. Four straight losses cramps their style.
Prediction: 3rd CUSA; AUTOBID; 12 seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Good team but too many losses in CUSA.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. AUTOBID. 3 seed. Have to beat both Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech to get the AUTOBID. Beat New Mexico State. Beat MTSU. Beat UTEP.
NIT Watch: 1%. 3rd in the CUSA and in the CUSA final against UTEP. If they lose tiny chance of making the NIT?
Stats (3/15): 3rd CUSA, Record 21-11 (8-8), NET 151 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (5: 11-3, 0-0 home Liberty; 12-4, 1-1 home Jacksonville State; 14-6, 3-3 loss home Sam Houston; 14-7, 3-4 win home Middle Tennessee; 17-7, 6-4 win home UTEP). Really nice home conference opener, beating conference favorite Liberty. Controlling game 3 win home with Jacksonville State. Lost at home to Sam Houston in a really tough standings loss game 7. Beat Middle Tennessee at home to get back to .500 in game 8. Won game 11 home against UTEP to get to 7-4 and a half game out in conference. Lost at Middle Tennessee State in game 13 after 5 straight wins. Beaten at home by Louisiana Tech in a separation game 14. Beaten at FIU in game 15. Beaten at Liberty to finish the conference at 8-8.
Players and Coach: Fastest tempo team in Division 1. Allen is a nice good sized guard. McHenry is their leading scorer with 15 a game. New coach Lutz.

Long Beach State. Maybe outperforms the 4 seed in the Big West, could be in the tournament.
Prediction: 4th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. AUTOBID! 4 seed. Have the athletes and coach to win the Big West tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 5th BW, Record 18-14 (10-10), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 win at DePaul). Won at DePaul in a very California way. Not a great upset as DePaul appears to have almost nothing.
Conference (11-6, 3-2 loss at Santa Barbara; 18-11, 10-7 at UC Irvine): Loss in game 6 at Santa Barbara makes 3 conference losses for them. Beaten at UC Irvine in game 18. Beaten by UC Davis at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Their team looks VERY californian – long, thin, smooth. Traore does everything for them. Dan Monson their coach, is experienced at this point.

McNeese. Easily the class of the Southland.
Prediction: 1st Southland; AUTOBID; 13 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 20%. Definitely deserve a look at 28-3 and a good NET.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 75% IN. Should win the AUTOBID for the Southland. A lot better than every other team in that conference.
Stats (3/9): 1st SL, Record 28-3 (17-1), NET 58 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 65 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 13 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (16-2, 5-0 at Texas A&M Corpus Christi): In a tough game at Corpus Christi in game 6, but pulled it out in the end. Beat Incarnate Word in game 14 at home. Beat Houston Christian in game 17 at home to get to 16-1. Won at New Orleans to finish the conference at 17-1.
Players and Coach: Wells does everything for them. Collum is a good big.

Akron. Lost 5 of their last 8 which is big trouble.
Prediction: 1st MAC; AUTOBID; 13 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. No MAC team is getting an at-large bid this year. NET over 100.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% IN. Split the series with Toledo, but are a game up in the loss column still. Beaten at Ohio their hardest remaining game. Lost to both Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan in their final 2 left, and both shgould be wins. Will be Akron or Toledo. Ohio and Central Michigan winning it would be upsets.
Stats (3/8): T 2nd MAC, Record 21-10 (13-5), NET 104 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 119 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (18-5 loss at James Madison). Controlled at James Madison in a game that doesn’t really hurt them profile wise.
Conference (9-4, 1-0 win home Bowling Green; 11-4, 3-0 win home Buffalo; 13-4, 5-0 WIN at Kent State; 16-5, 8-1 win home Toledo; 19-7, 11-2 win home Kent State): Controlled and pulled away from Bowling Green and Buffalo in home games 2 and 4. Nice controlling win in game 6 on the road at Kent State. Conference supremacy win in game 10 home against Toledo. Then Toledo returned the favor in game 13, beating them in Toledo. Controlled Kent State in game 14 at home. Beaten at Ohio for their 3rd conference loss in game 15. Lost at Western Michigan to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: They have the nation’s leading rebounder in Freeman and a another good big in Ali. They will not be intimidated in the tournament against major teams, but could get blown out. Guard play seems a little suspect and I think they will struggle to win in the NCAA tourney if they get there.

14 Seeds

Yale. Need to win the tourney to stay in. NET too low in the 80s for an at-large.
Prediction: 2nd Ivy; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Deserve a look if they lose in the final to Princeton? Nope. Best non-conference win is at Santa Clara, and they have a bunch of non-conference losses to other good, but non-tourney teams.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% AUTOBID. Lost to Brown. Fell into a tie for 2nd. Will have to beat both Cornell and Princeton. I think they will.
Stats (3/9): 2nd Ivy, Record 20-9 (11-3), NET 81 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 91 (SoS 124), Lunardi OUT (Princeton 12 Seed)
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (9-6, 0-0 win at Brown; 13-6, 4-0 win home Princeton; 17-6, 8-0 loss at Princeton): Controlled Brown on the road in their conference opener. Excellent conference standings win in game 5 home with Princeton. Princeton returned the favor in game 9. Beat Columbia at home in game 11. Beat Dartmouth and Harvard at home in games 12 and 13 Beaten at home by Brown in a meaningless game for them to end the season at 11-3.
Players and Coach: Mbeng is a really nice Ivy player at guard, defense and scoring. Wolf, a 7 foot center, is not fast but for the Ivy he will be a tough guard. Balanced scoring. Super experienced coach in Jones.

Vermont. I think they get the AUTOBID again this year. No reason to expect not so far this year.
Prediction: 1st America East; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NET in the 90s and only middling wins.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 65% IN. 1 Seed. UMass Lowell or maybe Bryant could steal this AUTOBID, but Vermont will be the heavy favorite.
Stats (3/9): 1st AE, Records 25-6 (15-1), NET 97 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 97 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral Charleston; 3-0 win neutral Saint Louis; 4-0 loss neutral Liberty; 8-3 loss at Virginia Tech). Played well against Charleston, coming back hard to win. Then they dismantled Saint Louis on a neutral floor. Those are two great wins for Vermont. They barely lost to another midmajor likely tourney team in Liberty. Blown out by Virginia Tech on the road.
Conference (11-5, 1-0 home UMBC): Nice win in game 2 home with UMBC, missing their best player. Won at Albany in game 13 to go to 12-1. Beat the 3 seed Bryant by 17 at home in game 14. Beat the 2 seed UMass Lowell by 12 at home in game 15. Won at New Hampshire to finsih the conference season at 15-1.
Players and Coach: Organized, disciplined, balanced and good. Rely on the three.

Charleston. Nice team with a real chance at the AUTOBID.
Prediction: 2nd Coastal; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 1%. If they win out and lose in the final they will be 25-8 and worthy of consideration.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% Chance. AUTOBID. Clinched the 1 seed. They have a long history of success and are competitive at the top of the conference. The quarterfinals of the Coastal will be real wars as there are several even teams. I think if the final is Drexel v Charleston, Drexel wins. Beat the 8 seed Monmouth, the 5 seed Towson and the 7 seed Stony Brook to get the Coastal AUTOBID.
Stats (3/2): 1st CAA, Record 24-7 (15-3), NET 102 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 106 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss neutral Duquesne; 1-1 loss neutral Vermont; 1-2 loss neutral Wyoming; 4-3 loss at Florida Atlantic). Apparently struggled to beat Iona and then Duquesne and Wyoming beat them. Not a great start to the season. Did control the game with Vermont, almost all the way and then lost. Apparently beat a good Liberty team, then were sort of in contact with an excellent Florida Atlantic team.
Conference (13-5, 4-1 loss at UNC Wilmington; 16-7, 7-3 win home North Carolina A&T; 19-7, 10-3 win home William & Mary; 21-7, 12-3 win at Towson): Played UNC Wilmington very close in game 6, but lost. Handled North Carolina A&T in game 11 to get to 8-3. Beat William & Mary in game 14 at home. Won at Delaware in game 15. Separateing road win at Towson in game 16. Beat Campbell by 23 at home in game 17. Beat Hofstra at home to finish the season 15-3.
Players and Coach: Brzovic is very good decent sized forward, and they have one great shooter – Smith. Burnham another forward is a decent player. No real point guard.

Montana State. Mid-pack in the Big Sky.
Prediction: 6th Big Sky; AUTOBID!; 16 Seed; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance! AUTOBID! 5 seed. Lost at Eastern Washington. Beat Weber State at home. Decent Big Sky team who could go on a run. Play 4 seed Weber State in the quarterfinals. Won the AUTOBID beating 4 seed Weber STate, 10 seed Sacramento State and 3 seed Montana to win the Big Sky!
Stats (3/4): 5th Big Sky, Record 14-17 (9-9), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-4 loss at Washington). I was impressed for about the first 15 minutes of the game with Washington, but then they just wore down.
Conference (13-17, 8-9 win home Weber State): Won at Idaho in game 16. Upset Weber State at home in game 18 to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Montana State starts four guards, but they can bring some size off the bench.

15 Seeds

Morehead State. 3 way tie for the 1 seed in the OVC.
Prediction: 1st OVC; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. You don’t get the AUTOBID from the OVC with a 110s NET.
Conference Tourney Review: 100% IN. They were the 2 seed, and beat SIU Edwardsville, UT Martin, and Little Rock to win the AUTOBID.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): T 1st OVC, Record 23-8 (14-4), NET 117 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 123 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 16 Seed.
Non-Conference (8-3 loss at Indiana). Led for most of the game AT INDIANA, and had a chance to win at the end, but lost.
Conference (13-4, 4-0 loss at SIU-Edwardsville; 18-5, 9-1 win home SIU-Edwardsville): Outplayed at SIU-Edwardsville in the one game I saw, but still the class of the conference. Avenged their only conference loss in game 11 with SIU Edwardsville to get to 10-1 in conference. They lost 3 in a row all of a sudden, including against 8 seed Southern Indiana at home. They won at 4 seed Western Illlinois in game 16. Beat Southeast Missouri in game 17, eliminating them. Beat Lindenwood at home in game 18 to finish at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Lost their best player for the season, which may hurt them in the OVC.

Oakland. Might be higher in the Horizon, but these Horizon teams all look the same to me.
Prediction: 1st Horizon; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% IN. 5 losses in the Horizon and a 5-6 non-conference record. won’t get you the AUTOBID.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID. Youngstown State, or others could steal this AUTOBID. It’s very unclear who gets the Horizon bid, but likely to be one of the top 7! Beat 8 seed Purdue Fort Wayne, 7 seed Cleveland State, and 6 seed Milwaukee to win the Horizon AUTOBID!.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Horizon, Record 20-11 (15-5), NET 138 (1-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 141 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 15 Seed
Non-Conference (3-3 WIN at Xavier; 6-5 loss at Michigan State). Led toward the end against Xavier, who is struggling to find themselves. Blown out by Michigan State on the road.
Conference (no games seen): Won at Robert Morris in game 18. Lost at home to the 4 seed Wright State in their 2nd to last game. Beat Detroit Mercy to finish the conference at 15-5.
Players and Coach: Watts and Townsend were money in the end of that game, and got a very nice win. Townsend is a nice power forward and they have Rocket Watts who used to play for Michigan State.

Colgate. They clinched the 1 seed with 3 games to go.
Prediction: 1st Patriot; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. You cannot get an AUTOBID with SoS over 300.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 80% IN. They have a SIX GAME LEAD in conference, which is amazing and some kind of record.
Stats (3/2): 1st Patriot, Record 22-9 (16-2), NET 131 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 143 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 15 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Syracuse; 6-4 loss at Illinois). Led the entire way against Syracuse but gave it up at the end. Kind of remotely in the game at Illinois which is a tough place to play.
Conference (11-8, 5-1 win home Lehigh; 14-8, 8-1 win home Navy; 19-8, 13-1 WIN at Lafayette; 20-8, 14-1 home American; 21-9, 15-2 at Lehigh): Held to a close win by Lehigh in game 7. Crushed Navy in game 10 at home. Beat their closest regular season rival to clinch the 1 seed with three games to go. In the first game after clinching the 1 seed, beaten at home by American in game 16. Beat Holy Cross in game 17 on the road. In a very close game at Lehigh in game 18 and won to finish the conference season at 16-2.
Players and Coach: Potentially dangerous team that can compete with the major conference teams for one game. Very experienced. Records is probably the Patriot player of the year. Cummins, a 6’6″ guard, is really helping them as the season progresses. But this is a great defensive team, 6th in the nation in opponents’ points per game.

South Dakota State. Class of the Summit in the regular season.
Prediction: 1st Summit; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. NET above 150.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% IN. AUTOBID! 1 seed. They only have 4 losses in conference, against a real mix of teams telling me upsets are possible. Beat 8 seed Oral Roberts, 4 seed St. Thomas, and 7 seed Denver to win the Summit AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Summit, Record 19-12 (12-4), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 149 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 16 Seed
Non-Conference (13-11, 6-3 home Oral Roberts):
Conference (11-9, 4-1 win home Kansas City; 12-11, 5-3 win home South Dakota; 13-11, 6-3 win home Oral Roberts): Beat Kansas City at home in game 6. Beat South Dakota in game 9 at home. Beat Oral Roberts in game 10 in a conference leader separating win. Beat Denver and St. Thomas at home in games 13 and 14. Beat North Dakota by 10 on the road to clinch the 1 seed in a CLUTCH performance. Won at North Dakota State to finish the conference at 12-4.
Players and Coach: Best team in a weak Summit League? Maybe. Not very athletic. Henderson seems OK as a coach, but not great.

16 Seeds

Stetson.
Prediction: 2nd Atlantic Sun; AUTOBID; NCAA 16 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% AUTOBID. 2 Seed. Beat 8 seed Queens, 10 seed Jacksonville, and 4 seed Austin Peay to win the Atlantic Sun conference AUTOBID.
Stats (2/28): 2nd ASun, Record 19-11 (11-4), NET 150+ (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Won at Jacksonville in game 15. Lost at 5 seed North Florida to finish the conference at 11-5.
Players and Coach: I watched parts of the conference final, and they have a bunch of capable intelligent gamers. Won’t be an super easy out, even if they are undersized.

Longwood. They have wins against the top teams in the conference.
Prediction: 5th Big South; AUTOBID; NCAA 16 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% AUTOBID!. Beat High Point in the last game of the year to move up to the 5 seed, after High Point had already clinched the 1 seed. Before that, I didn’t see a lot to get excited about.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Big South, Record 18-13 (6-10), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (13-4, 1-1 LOSS home Radford; 14-8, 2-5 loss at High Point; 17-12, 5-9 loss at Gardner-Webb): Lost by 11 in game 3 to Radford at home. Beaten at High Point in game 8 to drop to 2-6 in conference. Beat UNC Asheville at home to drop them out of the 1 seed. Cheated out of a win by the ref at Gardner Webb in game 15. Beat 1 seed High Point in a nice last game to finish 6-10 in conference.
Players and Coach: Napper and Christmas are their best two players.

16 Seeds – First Four

Saint Peter’s.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th MAAC; AUTOBID; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. 5 seed. Play the 4 seed Rider in the 1st round of the MAAC tourney. Saint Peter’s beat 4 Seed Rider, 1 seed Quinnipiac and 2 seed Fairfield to win the MAAC AUTOBID.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd MAAC, Record 16-13 (12-8), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Mt. St. Mary’s on the road in game 16. Beaten at home by Quinnipiac to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Grambling. Have won 8 of 9, and have a 2 game lead with 2 to go.
Prediction: 1st SWAC; AUTOBID; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 60% Chance. Only 3 conference losses with 2 likely wins to go.
Stats (3/9): 1st SWAC, Record 17-14 (14-4), NET 250+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi 16 seed
Non-Conference (2-1 neutral Delaware State). Lost a fairly close game with Delaware State.
Conference (6-11, 3-1 win home Southern; 8-12, 4-2 WIN at Jackson State): Nice win in game 5 at home against Southern. Even better win against Jackson state in game 7. Won their 5th straight home against Bethune Cookman in game 16. Lost at Alabama State to finish the conference at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Coach Jackson seems capable.

Howard. Can anyone beat Norfolk State?
Prediction: 6th MEAC; AUTOBID; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. Have not looked competitive in the 4 games I saw, but they are tied for second. Beat 5 seed Morgan State, 1 seed Norfolk State, and 6 seed Delaware State to win the MEAC tourney!
Stats (3/7): T 2nd MEAC, Record 15-16 (9-5), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300-+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-7 loss neutral Texas Southern). Lost two games in the HBCU classic in Vegas, and did not look good.
Conference (5-10, 0-0 loss at North Carolina Central; 9-13 loss neutral Hampton; 13-4, 10-3 at Norfolk State). Controlled by North Carolina Central on the road in the conference opener. Lost to Hampton on a neutral site in February. Beaten at Norfolk State in game 14 to finish 9-5.
Players and Coach: Henry is their leading scorer. I believe he is 26 and in his eighth year of NCAA eligiblity – WOW!

Wagner.
Prediction: 6th NEC; AUTOBID; NCAA 16 Seed; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. AUTOBID! 6 seed becasue they lost a 5 seed play-in game in their last regular season game. No reason to see this team as dangerous. LOL. Beat 3 seed Sacred Heart, 1 seed Central Connecticut and 2 seed Merrimack to win the Northeast Tourney.
Stats (3/2): 6th NEC, Record 13-15 (7-9), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-3 loss at Providence). Not competitive against Providence.
Conference (12-13, 6-7 win home Long Island University): Beaten at home by Central Connecticut State in game 13. Home win over Long Island University in game 14 to get back to .500. Lost at Le Moyne in game 15. Wagner was beaten at home by Fairleigh Dickinson to finish the conference season at 7-9. Of their 7 wins, they beat the 2, the 4, and the 5 once. Wagner’s non-conference was utterly unremarkable.
Players and Coach: Council is their points and scoring leader. Some athletes. Hard to say how they will do based on the one game.

NIT 32 At-Large Teams (teams 69-100).

NIT 1 Seeds

TCU. TCU is building an excellent resume.
Prediction: 8th Big 12; 10 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 52% IN. Much closer to the bubble after they lost at home to UCF. Need tourney wins to get in I think.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Awfully good middle of the pack team but so is every team above and below them. Experience will help them, as will coaching, in a tough tourney. Beat Oklahoma. Eliminated by Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 7th Big 12, Record 20-11 (9-9), NET 40 (4-10 Quad 1), Ken Pom 33 (SoS 65), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (6-0 win at Georgetown; 7-0 loss neutral Clemson; 7-1 win neutral Arizona State; 9-1 loss neutral Nevada; 9-2 win at Hawaii). TCU played absolutely no one early and started 6-0. Against Georgetown, that was NOT evident, as they almost lost to a not very good team, winning only on a miracle buzzer beater where the refs missed a call. Then controlled by Clemson and Nevada on a neutral floor. Controlled Hawaii.
Conference (11: 12-3, 1-1 WIN home Houston; 13-4, 2-2 LOSS home Iowa State; 13-5, 2-3 WIN at Oklahoma State; 14-5, 3-3 WIN at Baylor; 16-5, 5-3 LOSS home Texas; 16-7, 5-5 WIN at Kansas State): Nearly had a superb resume win at Kansas in the conference opener, but lost. Easily beat a very good Oklahoma team at home in game 2. Outstanding game 3 win against Houston at home. Game 5 loss at home against Iowa State. Game 6 win at Oklahoma State. Tournament making win in game 7 at Baylor (triple OT). Followed that at home with a win at home against #15 Texas Tech in game 8. Beaten at home by Texas in game 9. Beaten at Iowa State in game 10. Outstanding bubble win in game 12 at Kansas State on the road. Beaten at Texas Tech in game 13 to fall to 7-6. Beat Cincinnati at home in game 14. Beaten at home by Baylor in a game they should have been more competitive in. Beaten at BYU in game 16. Beaten by UCF at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Very experienced team. They have length too. Nelson, son of an NBA star, is a nice transfer guard for them. Miller is an excellent rebounder and scorer. Dixon is an outstanding coach.

Pitt. They have won 8 of 10 to get to 4th. Coming on strong.
Prediction: 6th ACC; NIT 2 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 40% OUT. The win at Virginia got everyone’s attention. Lost at Clemson in a lost opportunity game. Held court at Boston College in good win. Beat Florida State at home. All bubble all the time for Pitt, basically all year.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. 4 seed. Bubble quarterfinal with Wake Forest looming. Beat Wake Forest. Lost to North Carolina.
Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Both teams really want to win it to get into the tournament. If Pitt wins, I think they are in the tournament. If they lose I think they are OUT. They did win and stayed with North Carolina in the loss. But I will do a final analysis.
Stats (3/9): 4th ACC, Record 21-10 (12-8), NET 44 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 46 (SoS 84), Lunardi 6th OUT
Non-Conference (8: 4-0 loss neutral Florida; 4-1 win neutral Oregon State; 5-1 loss home Missouri; 5-2 loss home Clemson; 5-3 win at West Virginia). Played a very good Florida team very close early in early season tournament game. but lost going away. Controlled a decent FGCU team throughout. Dominated pretty bad majors in Oregon State and West Virginia, but lost at home to Missouri and Clemson, which is not a good sign.
Conference (16: 9-4, 0-2 LOSS home North Carolina; 9-5, 0-3 WIN at Louisville; 10-5, 1-3 LOSS home Duke; 10-6, 1-4 LOSS home Syracuse; 10-7, 1-5 WIN at Duke; 11-7, 2-5 WIN at Georgia Tech; 14-8, 5-6 WIN at NC State; 15-8, 6-6 WIN at Virginia): Lost a close game at Syracuse in conference game #2. Controlled by North Carolina at home. Finally got a conference win at Louisville on the road. Blown out at home by Duke and Syracuse in games 5 and 6. But then beat Duke and Georgia Tech on the road in games 7 and 8 in season saving wins. Then lost game 9 at Miami on the road. Won at home against Wake Forest and Notre Dame in games 10 and 11. Then got their 4th and 5th ACC road wins at NC State and Virginia (nice win!) in games 12 and 13 which makes 4 wins in a row. Beat Louisville in game 14 at home. Bubble loss at Wake Forest in game 15. Beat Virginia Tech at home by 15 in a bubble game that may knock Virginia Tech out of the NIT. Beaten at Clemson in game 17. Road win at Boston College in a really nice bubble win game 18. Bubble win putting Florida State away at home in game 19. Beat NC State at home to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: New guards and the season will depend on on how they do. Interesting team that could have a lot of different years. Carrington the freshman guard needs experience. Hinson at forward is a canddiate for player of the year in the ACC because he seems to get them to win games. They are really struggling against good teams.

Mississippi State. Uh oh. Lost all of their very hard final 4 games.
Prediction: 7th SEC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 51% IN. They are the 8 or 9 seed and will probably play LSU in an elimination game for them. They are in REAL bubble trouble.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Good team, but so is everyone else. Hubbard can really win games for them. Eliminated by Auburn in the SEC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 9th SEC, Record 19-12 (8-10), NET 39 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 39 (SoS 29), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral Northwestern; 6-0 loss at Georgia Tech; 6-1 loss home Southern; 6-2 neutral Tulane; 9-2 neutral Rutgers). Trailed early, then came back to dominate Northwestern who had some early wins. Then were totally controlled by Georgia Tech, and then lost to Southern, both of which are strange. Blew out Tulane. Controlled Rutgers on a neutral floor.
Conference (12: 11-3, 0-1 win home Tennessee; 12-3, 1-1 LOSS home Alabama; 13-6, 2-4 win home Auburn; 14-7, 3-5 loss at Alabama; 15-8, 4-6 WIN at Missouri). Very close loss in the conference opener at South Carolina. Great win against then #5 Tennessee in game 2. Bad resume conference home loss to Alabama in game 3. Lost at Kentucky, Florida and Ole Miss in games 4, 6 and 8. Beat Vanderbilt at home in game 5. Really nice resume win home against Auburn in game 7. Crushed at Alabama in game 9 to drop to 3-6 in conference. Won game 10 with Georgia at home. Road win at Missouri in game 11. Barely beat Arkansas in game 12 at home. Excellent bubble win home against Ole Miss in game 13 to get back to 7-6. Crushed LSU on the road for their 5th SEC game in a row to get to 8-6. Lost a major opportunity on a last possession loss to Kentucky at home in game 15. Beaten at Auburn in game 16. Beaten at Texas A&M in a big bubble loss game 17. Beaten at home by South Carolina to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach: Outstanding defensive team. Tolu Smith is a real leader at forward, probably NBA. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard is a SERIOUS player. Paris, the 2nd year coach, is unproven.

UNLV. They are definitely the wild card of the MWC. Weird wins and weird losses.
Prediction: 7th MWC; NIT 1 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Only 6 MWC losses. Beat Colorado State and San Diego State late. Lost at Nevada. Probably should be in over Colorado State and New Mexico. They have a weird mix of home losses and road wins. Their resume problem is in the non-conference where they lost 5 games, 3 to teams NOT in the tourney. But that was a LONG time ago. If they lose in their first game of the Mountain West tournament, they will be nervous. Otherwise, you have to put them in.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% chance. 5 seed and brutal 4/5 game with San Diego State. With their talent level they are causing all kinds of problems for other teams in the Mountain West. Eliminated by San Diego State in the Mountain West conference.
Stats (3/9) 4th MWC, Record 19-11 (12-6), NET 75 (5-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 72 (SoS 81), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 loss neutral Florida State; 3-4 WIN home Creighton). able to hang with an OK Florida State team in about the lowest energy game I’ve seen that wasn’t a blowout. Really nice win at home against Creighton, which might help them if they perform in the Mountain West.
Conference (12: 8-6, 1-1 LOSS home Utah State; 8-7, 1-2 WIN at Boise State; 9-8, 2-3 LOSS home Air Force; 9-9, 2-4 WIN at San Jose State; 12-9, 5-4 WIN at New Mexico; 14-9, 7-4 home Nevada): Not really in the game at San Diego State, but kind of kept it remotely close. Beat fellow bubble New Mexico at home by almost 20 in game 2. Beaten by Utah State on a last second play in game 3. Excellent road win in game 4 ending Boise State’s 22 game home winning streak. Almost won at Colorado State in game 5. Absolutely destroyed by Air Force in game 6 at home in a very strange game. Followed that with a win at San Jose State on the road. Wins at home over Fresno State and Wyoming in games 8 and 9. Outstanding post-season enabling win at New Mexico in game 10. Another road win at Fresno State in game 11. Beaten at home by Nevada in a crucial bubble loss to fall to 7-5. Beat Air Force on the road in game 13. Beat Colorado State at home in game 14. Avoided the key loss at Wyoming in game 15 to go 10-5. Beat San Jose State in game 16 at home. NCAA Entry WIN home against San Diego State in game 17. Lost at Nevada to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: Thomas, a small freshman point guard, is the team leader. The Boone brothers are really solid players. Balanced team. Some talent, and I don’t see a tournament team here. Kevin Kruger is developing a reputation as a good coach.

NIT 2 Seeds

Richmond. Terrible awful loss at George Mason for NCAA hopes.
Prediction: 2nd A10; NIT 1 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 50% IN. The George Mason loss HURTS.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 55% AUTOBID. Got their signature win beating Dayton at home. Slipped up but clinched the 1 seed. Play 9 seed St. Joseph’s in the quarterfinals. Could win the A10 Tourney with King. Eliminated by St. Joseph’s in the A10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Richmond is a bubble team despite only 8 losses. Their NET rating is in the 70s which is low. They were the 1 seed in the A10 which is one of the better mid-major conferences. I think they need two wins and lose the final against Dayton if they lose. They better beat St. Joseph’s for sure to keep their NCAA hopes alive, otherwise they are on the outside looking in. Lost to St. Joseph’s. Big bubble trouble.
Stats (3/9): T 1st A10, Record 23-8 (15-3), NET 70 (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 79 (SoS 113), Lunardi 12 Seed
Non-Conference (2-1 loss Colorado; 5-4 loss neutral Florida). Played Colorado, who is very solid, close. Not really close in the game with Florida.
Conference (14-5, 6-0 win home Dayton; 16-5, 8-0 loss at VCU; 17-7, 9-2 win home George Washington): Outstanding home win against #16 Dayton to go 7-0 in conference. First A10 loss at VCU in game 9. Beat George Washington in game 12 to get to 10-2 and a 3 way tie for first. Won at Rhode Island in game 13. Beat Davidson at home in game 14. Won at Saint Louis in game 15. Excellent separation and seeding win at home against 4 seed VCU in game 16. Lost at George Mason to fall into a tie for 2nd with Loyola Chicago at 15-3, but still have the 1 seed.
Players and Coach: Richmond looks like the quintessential bubble team, with maybe an NBA first round pick in King, a nice huge A10 big in Quinn, and discipline and athletes. Bigelow is another nice big. Very experienced team overall. Mooney is a coach on the rise.

Providence. Doing this well without Hopkins is quite an achievement.
Prediction: 6th Big East; NIT 2 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 35% OUT. Will likely come down to their conference tourney performance. Lunardi has them as one of the last teams in. Got the win at Xavier! They have home against Villanova in a key bubble game.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. Will be the 5-8 seed. Likely first round game with Seton Hall or Creighton which they will need to win for at-large consideration. Definite dark horse in the conference tourney though, but they will miss Hopkins once the tournaments come. Beat Georgetown. Beat Creighton. Providence has likely played themselves into the NCAA tournament. Next up 3 seed Marquette. Eliminated by Marquette in the Big East semifinals.
NIT Watch: 100% IN. They are in the NIT if they don’t make the NCAAs.
Stats (3/9): T 6th Big East, Record 19-12 (10-10), NET 61 (5-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 59 (SoS 69), Lunardi 1st Out
Non-Conference (11: 2-0 win home Wisconsin; 3-0 loss neutral Kansas State; 3-1 win neutral Georgia; 7-1 loss at Oklahoma; 9-2 WIN home Marquette). Held off a very solid Milwaukee team at home in game 2. Blew away a decent Wisconsin team in game 3. Then lost a CRAZY and undisciplined nasty early season game to Kansas State on a neutral floor. Then blown out at Oklahoma who is really excellent.
Conference (13: 11-2, 2-0 LOSS home Seton Hall; 11-5, 2-3 LOSS home Xavier; 11-6, 2-4 WIN at DePaul; 12-6, 3-4 WIN at Seton Hall; 14-8, 5-6 win home Creighton): Outstanding early conference win home against Marquette. Seton Hall came in in game 3 and beat them in a very close game. Played Creighton, St. John’s, and Xavier in games 4-6, and lost all three, the last one by 20. Beat DePaul and Seton Hall on the road in games 7 and 8. Beat Georgetown at home in game 9. Lost at UConn, Villanova and Butler in games 10, 11, and 13. Excellent bubble wins with Creighton and St. John’s in games 12 and 14 at home. Beat DePaul in game 15 at home. Great bubble win at Xavier in game 16 to get to 9-7 in the Big East. Absolutely crushed at Marquette in a game that hopefully for them the selection committee will ignore in game 17. Then beaten by 10+ at home by Villanova to fall to 9-9 in conference. Won at Georgetown in game 19. Beaten by UConn at home to finish the conference 10-10.
Coach and Players: Losing Hopkins mid-season for the year is brutal for them as he was their near NBA level star. Carter, one of the hardest workers in basketball, is a really nice big but he has big shoes to fill. Oduro, another big, helps. They have size and speed and experience and coaching.

Seton Hall. 4 seed or higher means absent a collapse they are in the NCAA tournament.
Prediction: 4th Big East; 9 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 85% IN. Beaten at Creighton and UConn by a LOT. Beat Villanova to recover. Last game home against DePaul which is an almost guaranteed win to get to 13-7 in the Big East.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Likely 4 seed for the tough Big East tourney, likely against the 5 seed Providence or Villanova. Can catch the 2 and 3 seeds if they lose their remaining games! But the top 3 are a class above so Seton Hall is in a tough position. Eliminated by St. John’s in the Big East quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 4th Big East, Record 20-11 (13-7), NET 62 (5-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 56 (SoS 42), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 4-0 loss neutral USC; 4-1 loss neutral Iowa; 5-2 loss at Baylor; 5-3 loss home Rutgers; 6-4 neutral Missouri). Against USC, they stayed in the game and went down. Against Iowa, they held their own and lost again. Controlled Northeastern. In the game most of the way at Baylor but lost touch. Lost at home to Rutgers in a bubble buster. Really fought to beat Missouri on a neutral floor.
Conference (15: 7-4, 0-0 WIN home UConn; 8-4, 8-5, 1-1 WIN at Providence; 10-5, 3-1 WIN at Georgetown; 11-5, 4-1 WIN at Butler; 12-5, 6-1 LOSS home Creighton; 12-6, 6-2 LOSS home Providence; 16-9, 9-5 at St. John’s): Nice wins home against UConn and Marquette who are supposed to be #1 and #2, and pretty big loss at Xavier, in conference early. Very nice game 3, 5 & 6 road wins at Providence, Georgetown and Butler. Controlled St. John’s at home in game 7. Heartbreaking losses at home to Creighton and Providence in games 8 and 9, without Richmond in game 9. Lost at Marquette in game 10. Beat DePaul and Georgetown in games 11 and 12 to get to 8-4. Blown out at Villanova in game 13. Home win in game 14 against Xavier gets them to 9-5 in the Big East which is awfully good. Nice separation road win at St. John’s in game 15. Another separation win over Butler in game 16 at home. Beaten by 20 at Creighton in game 17 in a real reality check for this team. Beaten easily at UConn at UConn in a 2nd real reality check for this team. May have eliminated Villanova with a home win over them in game 19. Beat DePaul at home to finish the conference at 13-7.
Players and Coach: Lots of athletic large short players. Wiped out several early opponents. The big guard Richmond is a big talented NBA level player who might be the most talented player in the Big East. Dawes is a very smart good shooter and point guard. Holloway really knows what he is doing as head coach I think.

Oklahoma. Only 26 Big 12 teams can make the tournament.
Prediction: 7th Big 12; 8 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 59% IN. Beaten at Iowa State and home against Houston. It’s amazing, but you really can’t blame them for any of their 11 losses. Their worst losses are home against Texas and maybe at TCU and uh at Texas?? Still, they probably need some conference tourney wins to get an at-large bid.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12%. 10 losses in the Big 12 does not bode well for their tourney hopes. Eliminated by TCU in the 2nd Round of the Big 12 tourney.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: They have lost 12 games to 12 incredible teams. They should be IN, but they lost in the 2nd round of the tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 9th Big 12, Record 20-11 (8-10), NET 40 (3-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 37 (SoS 45), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral Iowa; 5-0 win neutral USC; 7-0 win home Providence; 8-0 win home Arkansas; 10-0 loss neutral North Carolina). Absolutely crushed what I thought was a good team in Iowa. Controlled all of USC, Providence and Arkansas, the last one at home. Controlled a very good Providence Team.
Conference (13-1, 1-0 loss at TCU; 15-3, 3-2 LOSS home Texas; 18-6, 6-5 at Baylor; 18-7, 6-6 LOSS home Kansas; 18-8, 6-7 WIN at Oklahoma State): Beaten at a game TCU team in game 2. Lost to Texas at home in game 6 in a bad seeding loss. Blown out at Baylor to drop to .500 in conference. Kansas took them out in game 13 to drop them below .500 in the Big 12. McCollum saved them with a huge difficult 3 at Oklahoma State in game 14. Beaten at Iowa State in a lost opportunity game 15. Beaten at home by Houston on a last second shot game 16. Beaten at Texas to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach: Moore is a good forward, scores and rebounds. McCollum is a good guard. Nice mobile center. They are athletic and deep. Probably on the bubble for sure, but hard to rise in the Big 12 and could go the other direction.

NIT 3 Seeds

Wake Forest. Wake Forest is the marker for the bubble. If you are ahead of them you are IN!
Prediction: 5th ACC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 51% IN. The home win over Duke really helps them. The losses at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and home with Georgia Tech really hurts them. Beat Clemson at the end. NET is awfully high. TWO Quad 1 wins.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12%. 5 seed. 12 seed Notre Dame is up for them in Round 2. Another dangerous ACC team. Eliminated by Pitt in the ACC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Currently I have Wake Forest as one of the 6 12 seeds, which for me are the last 6 in. If they lose to Notre Dame they will be 19-13 and in big bubble trouble. If they win, they advance to the quarterfinals with Pitt and might get in even with a loss. Beat Notre Dame. OK so they survived the 1st round and now have an opportunity game against Pitt.
Stats (3/9): T 5th ACC, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 38 (2-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 26 (SoS 73), Lunardi 5th OUT
Non-Conference (7: 1-0 loss at Georgia: 1-1 loss neutral Utah; 2-2 loss neutral LSU; 3-3 win home Florida; 4-3 win home Rutgers). Played close losses with Georgia, Utah, and LSU but lost all three. Struggled to put Towson away. Then they beat a decent Florida team at home in a good win. Beat Rutgers at home easily.
Conference (16: 9-3, 1-0 WIN at Boston College; 14-7, 6-4 WIN at Georgia Tech; 15-8, 7-5 win home NC State; 16-7, 8-4 loss at Duke; 16-8, 8-5 at Virginia): In what is becoming a pattern for them, beat Virginia Tech at home easily. Nice road win at Boston College in game 2. Excellent home wins with Miami, Virginia and Louisville in games 3, 5 and 7. Losses at Florida State, NC State, North Carolina and Pitt in games 4, 6, 8, and 9. Started second half of the conference with a blowout win over Syracuse at home. Blew out Georgia Tech on the road in game 11. Beat NC State at home in game 12. Loss at Duke and Virginia in games 13 and 14. Won a bubble game by destroying Pitt at home in game 15. Great home win in game 16 over DUKE. Followed that up with a terrible loss at Notre Dame in game 17. Beaten at Virginia Tech in game 18 in another bad late loss. Terrible bubble loss home against Georgia Tech in game 19. Beat Clemson at home in another bubble game to finish the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Small guards, not a ton of talent for the ACC. Carr has scored a lot. Boopie Miller averaging 19 ppg. Sallis is a nice player. Hildreth might win some games for them, and they have a big forward transfer Reid from Gonzaga who can score and rebound.

Villanova. Right on the bubble. Need wins.
Prediction: 5th Big East; NIT 2 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 45% OUT. Villanova has 4 Quad 1 wins, but 8 conference losses. Won at Providence. Lost at Seton Hall and home to Creighton. They probably need at least one Big East Tournament win (and probably two) to get in the NCAAs.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% STEAL. 6-8 seed. The won 5 of 6 to get to this position, and then lost the 2 at the end. Eliminated by Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th Big East, Record 17-14 (10-10), NET 31 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 28 (SoS 12), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (10: 3-9 win neutral Texas Tech; 4-1 win neutral North Carolina; 5-1 win neutral Memphis; 6-3 loss at Kansas State; 6-4 win home UCLA). Ranked #22 at the beginning of the year. Absolutely destroyed a pretty bad Maryland team, beat a big Texas Tech team going away at the end. Beat highly rated North Carolina in OT. Then just crushed a very good Memphis team. But oddly lost by 15 to St. Joseph’s at home. Nice win home against a good UCLA team.
Conference (12: 10-4, 3-0 LOSS home St. John’s; 11-6, 4-2 LOSS home UConn; 11-9, 4-5 LOSS home Marquette; 12-10, 5-6 loss at Xavier; 12-11, 5-7 win home Seton Hall; 13-11, 6-7 at Georgetown): Won a very close one at Creighton in a great road opening conference game. Held off Xavier at home without Moore in game 3. Pretty bad conference home loss to St. John’s in game 4. Beat DePaul in game 5. Beaten by more than 10 at Marquette in game 6. Beaten at home by UConn in game 7. Road losses in games 8 and 9 at St. John’s and Butler. Lost at home for the third time against Marquette in game 10. Game 11 win against Providence at home. Beaten at Xavier in a tough bubble loss in game 12 to drop to 5-7 in conference, 12-11 overall. Dominant bubble win home against Seton Hall in game 13. Road win at Georgetown in game 14. Another home bubble win over Butler in game 15 to make it 3 straight. Beaten at UConn in game 16. Beat Georgetown at home in game 17. Massive bubble and separation win AT Providence in game 18. Beaten at Seton Hall in a lost opportunity game 19. Beaten at home in another lost opportunity game to Creighton to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Lots of athletes and talent. Moore at guard the scorer. TJ Bamba and Dixon need to be huge for them down low. Dixon had 34 against North Carolina. New coach in Kyle Neptune.

Iowa. Something about this team is really not good, and not just because it is Iowa. Might finish lower.
Prediction: 6th Big 10; NIT 4 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 40% OUT. They beat Wisconsin and Michigan State and Northwestern late. Lost last game home with Illinois.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. 7 seed, with a nasty game 1 in the 2nd round against Ohio State. Likely 1st or 2nd game exit, but also are incredibly annoying. Eliminated by Ohio State in the Big 10 2nd round.
Stats (3/10): T 6th Big 10, Record 18-13 (10-10), NET 57 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 49 (SoS 19), Lunardi 3rd OUT.
Non-Conference (9: 2-0 loss at reighton; 3-1 loss neutral Oklahoma; 3-2 win neutral Seton Hall; 5-3 loss at Iowa State). Iowa stayed in the game at Creighton, and I like their team this year. BLOWN OUT by Oklahoma and Iowa State. They did beat a probably tournament team in Seton Hall.
Conference (12: 10-6, 2-3 WIN at Minnesota; 11-6, 3-3 LOSS home Purdue; 11-7. 3-4 LOSS home Maryland; 11-8, 3-5 WIN at Michigan; 14-10, 6-7 loss at Maryland): Blown out by Purdue. Controlled at Wisconsin. Beat strugglnig Rutgers at home easily. Good standings win in game 5 home with Nebraska. Good controlling road win in game 6 at an improving Minnesota. Beaten by Purdue and Maryland at home in games 7 and 8. Road win at Michigan in game 9. Road loss at Indiana in game 10. Managed to beat Ohio State at home in game 11 to get to 5-6 in conference. Road loss at Penn State in game 12 to drop to 5-7 in conference. EXTREMELY lucky game 13 home win against Minnesota when they were down 20 and Dawson Garcia got hurt. Beaten at Maryland in game 14 to fall to 2 games under .500 in conference. Back to 7-8 in conference with their biggest win of the season home against Wisconsin in game 15. Then beat Michigan State in game 16 on the road. Beaten at Illinois in game 17. Beat Penn State in game 18 at home to get to 9-9. Won AT NORTHWESTERN in game 19 in a very nice seeding game. Beaten at home by Illinois to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: The new center Krikke is a legit scorer, McCaffery is still an ok player, Perkins is another experienced guard, and they have a good supporting cast. I initially thought they would be alright, but now I am really questioning their post-season credentials. Fran McCaffery is the world’s most annoying coach, but finds ways to win.

Ole Miss. Losing quite a few games in the SEC. Coach Beard will help them outperform.
Prediction: 9th SEC; 12 Seed; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Losing too much at the end here. Road game at Georgia was a must win, and they lost. Texas A&M at home left. Tough. Now they need probably 2 tournament wins to get back in the tournament.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% STEAL. 9 seed in the SEC is a challenge, and they haven’t shown it in the regular season. Eliminated by Texas A&M in the SEC 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): 10th SEC, Record 20-11 (7-11), NET 80 (3-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 76 (SoS 71), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (5-0 win home NC State; 6-0 win home Memphis; win 9-0 neutral Cal; 12-0 win home Bryant). Really controlled the games with NC State and Cal and won both by 20. Then won a very close game with talented Memphis at home. An EXCELLENT UNDEFEATED non-conference season.
Conference (12: 13-1, 0-1 win home Florida; 15-1, 2-1 loss at LSU; 16-3, 3-3 WIN at Texas A&M; 18-3, 5-3 LOSS home Auburn; 18-4, 5-4 loss at South Carolina): Blown out by 20 at Tennessee in game 1. One game later, blew out Florida at home by 20. Games 3 and 6 wins with Vanderbilt and Arkansas at home. Losses at LSU and Auburn in games 4 and 5. Excellent road win at Texas A&M in game 7. Third win in a row in game 8 with Mississippi State. Lost game 9 home against Auburn in a seeding loss. Beaten in games 10 and 11 at South Carolina and Kentucky to drop below .500 in the SEC. Game 12 win over Missouri at home. Beaten at Mississippi State in game 13 to drop under .500. Another bad loss home against South Carolina in game 14 to fall to 6-8 in the SEC. Third straight loss home against Alabama in game 15 in a terrible NCAA hopes opportunity game 15. Won at Missouri in game 16. Really bad tournament hopes loss at Georgia in game 17. Beaten at home by Texas A&M by 25 to finish 7-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Have a 7’5″ center, Sharp! Flanigan is the star player who looks really excellent and will win games for them. Cisse, another big, adds physicality. Brakefield is a scoring forward. Murray is a serious gamer at point. The reason they are winning is they have all the roles filled well. Beard has a great reputation as head coach.

NIT 4 Seeds

Cincinnati. Getting 7 wins from where they were is an achievement.
Prediction: 11th Big 12; NIT 5 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 1%. If they ran the table and lost in a close one in the final? Still doubful.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% STEAL. Play West Virginia in Round 1. Eliminated by Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble: With their high NET rating they still harbor NCAA dreams with 3 quad one wins and the 11 seed in the Big 12! Far more likely is one of the 12 major conference home games in the NIT unless they go on a run. Must beat West Virginia to keep their dreams alive. I don’t think they are slipping out of the NIT even if they lose. Beat West Virginia. Next up is 6 seed Kansas, who is missing 2 key players in theior short rotation. MASSIVE opportunity game for Cincinnati to improve their chances for the NCAAs, and I think they take it. Beat Kansas. Lost to Iowa State.
Stats (3/9): 11th Big 12, Record 18-13 (7-11), NET 45 (3-10 Quad 1), Ken Pom 45 (SoS 46), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-0 loss at Xavier). Started at 7-0 but really didn’t play anyone. Lost at Xavier, who is not great, in the first game I saw.
Conference (11-2, 0-0 WIN at BYU; 12-3, 1-1 loss at Baylor; 13-5, 2-3 loss at Kansas; 15-7, 4-5 LOSS home Houston; 15-8, 4-6 LOSS home Iowa State): Blew out BYU on the road in their conference opener. Really impressive losses, if there are such a thing, at Baylor and Kansas in games 3 and 6. Another impressive loss (?) home against Houston in game 10 to drop to 4-6 in conference. Controlled by Iowa State in game 11 at home. BAD bubble loss at home to Oklahoma State in game 13. Beaten at TCU in game 14. Played Houston very close on the road but lost in game 15. Beat Kansas State at home in a game that crushed KSt’s dreams game 16. Then they ALMOST beat Oklahoma in game 17, but lost by 2. Beat West Virginia at home to finish the conference 7-11.
Players and Coach: Lakhin is a really nice forward and they have more size with center Bandaogo. They have the major conference size and talent and fit in in the Big 12 in their first year. Miller is the new coach.

Ohio State. They had a bad mid-season but are rallying hard. Still in 2nd to last in the Big 10.
Prediction: 10th Big 10; NIT 7 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 10% chance. They have beaten Purdue Michigan State and Nebraska in their last 5 games.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% STEAL. 10 seed. 2nd Round against 7 seed Iowa. Dangerous in the tournament, and the coaching change has really helped them. Eliminated by Illinois in Big 10 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/10): T 9th Big 10, Record 19-12 (9-11), NET 60 (3-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 55 (SoS 56), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8: 3-1 win neutral Alabama; 4-1 win neutral Santa Clara; 7-2 win neutral UCLA; 10-2 win neutral West Virginia). Lost to Texas A&M who is good and struggled with Merrimack who is a good team. Led the whole way against then #17 Alabama. Beat UCLA on a neutral floor.
Conference (11: 7-1, 1-0 loss at Penn State; 12-2, 2-1 loss at Indiana; 12-3, 2-2 LOSS home Wisconsin; 13-6, 3-5 loss at Northwestern; 13-8, 3-7 loss at Iowa; 13-10, 3-9 home Maryland): Lost their first road test at Penn State. Close home wins in game 3 and 7 with Rutgers and Penn State. Close games 4 & 6 losses at Indiana and Michigan on the road. Absolutely destroyed at Northwestern in game 9, and beaten at Iowa in game 11 to drop to 3-8 in conference. Triple OT win in game 13 at home with Maryland kind of emblematic of their season. Upset Purdue in game 15 in a strange one. Handed their 11th Big 10 loss at Minnesota in game 16. Big upset at Michigan State in game 17, maybe will play their way into the NIT. Upset Nebraskas in game 18! Beat Michigan by 30 in game 19 at home. Beat Rutgers on the road by 22 to finish 9-11.
Players and Coach: Not proving themselves in the Big 10, and I had very high hopes. Chris Holtmann has been consistently delivering wins as head coach over the years, even if he isn’t my favorite coach. Big powerful Big 10 physical guards, with Gayle and Thornton. Jamison Battle as a scorer. Key can be outstanding.

Utah. Fading hard as the Pac 12 season goes on.
Prediction: 6th Pac 12; NIT 4 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 1% OUT. They have really collapsed in conference, losing 8 of their last 12. They are a guaranteed NIT team now with their high NET. Eliminated by Colorado in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9) T 6th Pac 12, Record 18-13 (9-11), NET 52 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 51 (SoS 31), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral Wake Forest; 3-0 loss neutral Houston; 3-1 loss neutral St. Johns; 3-2 win at St. Mary’s). Kind of hung in against outstanding Houston, but just barely. Then lost badly to a not very good St. John’s team. Nice bubble game against St. Mary’s.
Conference (7: 11-2, 2-0 loss at Arizona State; 11-4, 2-2 win home UCLA; 12-4, 3-3 win home Oregon State; 13-5, 4-3 win home Oregon; 14-6, 5-4 loss at Washington; 15-8, 6-6 LOSS home Arizona State): Controlled at Arizona State in a pretty bad game for them, but I don’t think it is representative. Wins at home against UCLA, Oregon State and Oregon in games 5, 6 and 8. Absolutely blown out in game 10 at Washington in a game I saw live. Game 13 loss at home to Arizona State is BIG trouble for their NCAA hopes, dropping to 6-7. Beaten at USC in game 14. Won at UCLA in a great win and lost at Colorado in a great loss in game 16. Crushed Stanford in game 17 at home. Beat Cal in game 18 at home. Hard to believe this team was a possible tournament team, losing badly at Oregon State in game 19. Lost at Oregon when they missed a last minute open 3 to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Utah is tall but not really big. Two 7 footers, play team basketball. Carlsen is a really really good big. Madsen and Smith also nice contributors. Nice team.

Washington. Probably on the outside of the NIT bubble looking in.
Prediction: 7th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance.
Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. Still can be the 5-9 seeds even though they are done. If they really get hot they can beat anyone, but 3 or 4 days in a row? I doubt it. Eliminated by USC in Round 1 of the Pac 12 tourney.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: They are one of the NIT AUTOBIDS, I think.
Stats (3/7): T 7th Pac 12, Record 17-14 (9-11), NET 66 (2-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 57 (SoS 48), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (11: win neutral Xavier, loss neutral San Diego State, loss neutral Colorado State, WIN home Gonzaga). Were totally controlled by a good Nevada team. Won a very close game with Xavier who is about as good as them. Almost beat San Diego State and Colorado State, losing both. Then beat Gonzaga in a great game at home.
Conference (all: 8-3, 0-0 loss at Colorado; 8-5, 0-2 LOSS home Oregon; 11-8, 3-5 LOSS home Colorado; 11-9, 3-6 home win Utah; 12-9, 4-6 LOSS home Washington State): Almost won at a wounded Colorado. Lost to Oregon at home in a close bubble busting loss. Controlled Arizona State at home in game 5. Bubble busting loss, or worse, home against Colorado in game 9. Then rallied with a win over Utah at home in game 10. 3rd home conference loss to Washington State really truly hurts them in game 11. Another loss at Oregon in game 12 to drop to 4-8. Nice win in game 14 at home against Stanford to get to 6-8 in conference. Good game 16 win at Arizona State. Beaten at Arizona in game 17. Ended UCLA’s tourney dreams in game 18 win at home. Upset by USC at home when they could not guard Collier in game 19. Beat Washington State on the road in game 20 to finish at 9-11, in a game that showed what they could have been.
Players and Coach: Washington has one big time player, inconsistent forward Keion Brooks, a really speedy slashing guard in Wheeler, and a complimentary cast of decent players only some of whom can compete at the top of the major conference level. Mulcahy, the transfer from Rutgers, should help on defense. Where is all the scoring gonna come from against elite defenses? I have season tickets for this team so I see all their home games. They had a decent non-conference season, but started the Pac 12 0-3 against fellow bubble teams so I have to drop them out of the NIT.

NIT 5 Seeds

South Florida. Selection committee better put them in as far as I’m concerned. Memphis more likely.
Prediction: 2nd American; 12 Seed; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 55% IN. 1 seed. They beat Florida Atlantic! Beat Charlotte and SMU late. TERRIBLE NCAA loss at Tulsa in their regular season finale. I know this team has lower NET ratings, but they have dominated the American regular season schedule ahead of both Florida Atlantic and Memphis. They deserve to be in, stats be damned.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% AUTOBID. One of the most likely regular season winners to go out early in the conference tourney I think because their gaudy record doesn’t mean much with all the bad teams in the American. Eliminated by UAB in the American semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 1st American, Record 23-6 (16-2), NET 73 (1-0 Q1), Ken Pom 86 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (2-4 WIN neutral Florida State). I don’t know how this team lost four games early, because they absolutely crushed Florida State on a neutral floor. Not sure why, but they dominated.
Conference (8-5, 1-1 win home Rice; 9-5, 2-1 WIN at Memphis; 15-5, 8-1 WIN home Charlotte; 17-5, 10-1 home Tulsa; 18-5, 11-1 home Florida Atlantic; 20-5, 13-1 home SMU). Held off Rice in game 3 at home. Outstanding road win at Memphis, coming back from down 20 against a top 10 team, for the first time in 13 years in NCAA basketball, in game 4. Last possession win home against Charlotte in game 10 to go to 9-1 in conference. Controlled Tulsa in game 12 to get to 11-1. Held off a furious Florida Atlantic comeback at home in game 13 to get to 12-1. Beat SMU in a real separeation game to get to 14-1 in the American. Won at 3 seed Charlotte in another separation game to get to 15-1! Lost at Tulsa to finish 16-2 in conference.
Players and Coach: Youngblood, a big 3 point shooting physical guard, is their leading scorer. Pryor is a REALLY hard working big. Abdur-Rahim (one of 13 brothers) is the head coach.

San Francisco. They don’t have a good win, so no NCAA tourney.
Prediction: 3rd WCC; NIT 4 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NO really good wins.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% STEAL. As a 3 seed, normally they would have a better chance. But no way they beat both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Would be a massive upset, even with their talented team. Eliminated by Gonzaga in the West Coast semifinals..
NIT Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 3rd WCC, Record 22-9 (11-5), NET 63 (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 71 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-1 loss neutral Grand Canyon; 2-2 win neutral DePaul; 3-2 win home Minnesota). Very close bubble busting loss with a probable NCAA bound Grand Canyon from the WAC, then dismantled a bad DePaul Team and a bad Minnesota team.
Conference (6: 14-4, 3-0 win home Loyola Marymount; 15-4, 4-0 loss home Saint Mary’s; 15-5, 4-1 loss at Gonzaga; 16-6, 5-2 win home San Diego; 18-6, 7-2 WIN at Pepperdine): Out to 4-0 start in conference, and controlling win at home in game 4. Then lost at home to Saint Mary’s in game 5. Beaten at Gonzaga in game 6. Beat San Diego at home in game 8. Road win at Pepperdine in game 10 to go to 8-2. Beaten at St. Mary’s in game 13. Beat Pepperdine at home game 14. Beaten by 30 at home against Gonzaga in game 15. Beaten at Santa Clara in game 16 to finish the conference at 11-5.
Players and Coach: Mogbo is big, athletic and good and can compete with major conference bigs. They are going to be a bubble team for sure.

Bradley. Loss at home against Drake really hurts their tourney chances. Must win to stay in the NIT.
Prediction: 3rd MVC; NIT 5 Seed
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. I don’t think they even have a chance because Drake is above them and cannot get in probably. NIT almost certain though.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% OUT. They have clinched the 3 seed. Not the best tourney team I don’t think, except for their size at forward.
NIT Seeding Outlook: .
Stats (3/2): 3rd MVC, Record 21-10 (13-7), NET 60 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 70 (SoS 103), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Tulane; 4-0 win neutral UTEP; 6-1 LOSS home Indiana State). Beat a pretty average Tulane team. Then beat a better UTEP Team. Lost at home to Indiana State which is not a good sign for the MVC performance.
Conference (14-5, 6-2 win home Murray State; 15-5, 7-2 loss at Indiana State; 15-6, 7-3 home Northern Iowa; 17-7, 9-4 LOSS home Drake): Nice controlling win at home in game 9 with Murray State to go to 7-2 in conference. Took Indiana State to OT on the road in a loss in game 10. Blew out Northern Iowa by almost 20 in game 11. Home loss against Drake does NOT help their resume in game 14. Beat Missouri State and Illinois State at home in games 17 and 18. Won their 3rd straight at the perfect time home against Southern Illinois in a separation game for the 3 seed. Beaten at Drake in a fairly close game to finish 13-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Experienced shooting guards and a far better this year forward in Leons. Deen put up a lot of points on Indiana State. They have like 4 6’7″ lean forwards. You can see why they win a lot of games – calm, organized, good athletes.

Kansas State. You do not want to play them in a tournament. Warriors as a low seed.
Prediction: 10th Big 12; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 30%. The win against Iowa State is huge. They are going to the NIT, unless they have a great tourney. See below!
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 11%. Kansas State fights in every game. Hard to fight 4 days in a row, or 5 days in a row if they keep losing. They are going to need 4 upsets and maybe 1 more 1st round win in the Big 12 tournament which is almost impossible. Eliminated by Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: Beat Texas in Round 1. Huge opportunity game in round 2 against Iowa State.
Stats (3/9): T 9th Big 12, Record 18-13 (8-10), NET 76 (3-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 69 (SoS 22), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 neutral USC; 2-1 win neutral Providence; 3-1 loss neutral Miami; 6-2 win home Villanova; 7-2 win at LSU). Fought like crazy and won in OT against Providence in a pretty nasty game where all the fans were drunk in the Bahamas. Then fought back against a much better than them Miami team. Then took Villanova to the last possession at home and won. Nice nonconference win at LSU who is not great but still.
Conference (7: 12-3, 2-0 loss at Texas Tech; 14-4, 4-1 loss at Iowa State; 14-5, 4-2 loss at Houston; 14-8, 4-5 win home Kansas; 15-8, 5-5 loss at BYU; 15-9, 5-6 home TCU): Absolutely crushed UCF in UCF’s first ever Big 12 game. Beaten in games 3 and 6 at Texas Tech and Iowa State in super close games. Blown out at Houston in game 7. I missed two straight losses, but they beat Kansas at home in game 10 to get back to .500 in the Big 12. Lost game 11 at BYU. Beaten by TCU at home in a bubble crushing loss in game 13 to fall to 5-7 in conference. Then beaten at Texas in game 13 to fall to 5-8. Barely beat West Virginia in game 15 to get back to 7-8 and they are trying to get back to the tournament. Beaten at Cincinnati in game 16 in a brutal NCAA hopes game. May drop out of the NIT with a loss at Kansas by 24 in game 17. Beat Iowa State at home in a really nice season closing NCAA hopes win and to finish in conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach: This is a very hardworking team that will overachieve. I think they will outperform their talent, which is not super high. Tylor Perry is a very nice player who hit the three to beat Villanova. Kaluma the big forward is having a good season. A ton of physical athletic major conference ready players.

NIT 6 Seeds

Memphis. Memphis dropped 2 games badly and are now out of the tournament.
Prediction: 3rd American; NIT 2 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 30% OUT. Got the 5 seed and their path to the final goes through UAB and South Florida. Maybe they are in if they get to the final and lose a close one, but even then.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30% STEAL. Among the highest possible tourney winners from a 6 loss team. Will likely need some tourney wins to make the NCAAs. Eliminated by Wichita State in the American second round.
Stats (3/9): 6th American, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 71 (2-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 71 (SoS 92), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 3-0 win neutral Michigan; 4-0 win neutral Arkansas; 5-0 loss neutral Villanova; 5-1 loss at Ole Miss; 8-2 win home Virginia). Win at VCU on the road. Led the whole way against Michigan on a neutral floor. Then absolutely blown out by Villanova. In a war and lost at a good Ole Miss. GREAT wins at Texas A&M and home against Virginia.
Conference (6: 14-2, 3-0 WIN at Wichita State; 15-2, 4-0 LOSS home South Florida; 15-3, 4-1 loss at Tulane; 16-6, 5-4 WIN at Temple; 19-8, 8-6 home Florida Atlantic; 21-8, 10-6 home UAB). Barely held off SMU in game 2. Won at Wichita State in game 4. Beaten at home by South Florida in game 5, in a game where they really looked confused and not sure what was up. Then beaten at Tulane and UAB in games 6 and 7 to fall to 4-3 in conference. Finally won a conference game after a 4 game losing streak, barely beating bottom dweller Wichita State at home. Road win at Temple in game 10. Beaten at SMU in game 13, very ugly game. Beat fellow bubbler Charlotte by 24 at home in game 14. Started their way back to the NCAA tournament (?) in game 15 win over Florida Atlantic at home. Crushed East Carolina in game 16. Came back from 22 down to beat UAB in game 17 at home. Lost at Florida Atlantic in a bad NCAA hopes loss to finish at 11-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Lost one of their starters, the guard Mills, to season ending injury mid-season. Great fast point guard in Quinerly. David Jones is the 5th leading scorer in Division 1. Multiple talented bigs. Might do better than this, by a lot because they have athletes. Hardaway has proven himself to be a good coach I think.

Butler. The wins at Marquette and Creighton are not enough with their 5 game losing streak.
Prediction: 8th Big East; NIT 5 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0%. 5 game losing streak means they have to run the table now. Beat Xavier in the regular season final. If they lose in the final of the Big East tournament, they will be 21-14 and get a lot of bubble attention. Otherwise, they are out.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% STEAL. They are a very dangerous likely 9 seed, but 9s have to play UConn in the quarterfinals. They will be in the 8/9 game, probably against Xavier who they just beat. They are playing on the 1st day now and will have a tough round one game as an underdog. 4 wins to the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Xavier in the 1st Round of the Big East Tournament.
Stats (3/9): 9th Big East, Record 18-13 (9-11), NET 65 (4-11 Quad 1), Ken Pom 61 (SoS 12), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 3-0 loss at Michigan State; 3-1 loss neutral Florida Atlantic; 4-1 win neutral Boise State; 5-2 win home Texas Tech; 7-2 win home Cal). Against Michigan State, trailed for the game and Michigan State controlled the game. Beaten easily by Florida Atlantic. Beat Boise State easily. Beat Texas Tech and Cal (double overtime) in good early games.
Conference (14: 10-4, 1-2 LOSS home UConn; 10-5, 1-3 WIN at Marquette; 11-5, 2-3 LOSS home Seton Hall; 12-7, 3-5 WIN at Georgetown; 14-7, 5-5 WIN at Creighton; 16-8, 7-6 LOSS home Marquette; 16-9, 7-7 LOSS home Creighton): Controlled at St. John’s in game 3 and at Xavier in game 7 which are bad seeding losses. Close losses at home against UConn in game 4 and Seton Hall in game 6. Outstanding road win in game 5 at Marquette. Won games 8 and 10 at home with DePaul and Villanova, and game 9 at Georgetown for a 3 game winning streak. Then beat Creighton on the road in an excellent resume win. Beaten at UConn in game 12 to drop to .500 in the Big East. Win in game 13 against Providence at home. Beaten at home by Marquette and Creighton in game 14 and 15 to fall back to 7-8 in conference. Beaten at Villanova to go 2 games under .500 with 4 games go to. Beaten at Seton Hall to fall to 7-10 in conference. Beaten at home by St. John’s and their at-large chances are plummeting in game 18. Won at DePaul in game 19. Beat Xavier at home to finish the conference season 9-11.
Players and Coach: Big. Athletic. Playing as a team. Just absolutely were killers. Telfort is a big good forward. Brooks and Alexander are a good guard tandem. Thad Motta coaches every team up from their talent level.

Syracuse. Syracuse has some tradition, and on a 4 game winning streak.
Prediction: 7th ACC; NIT 4 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 14% OUT. Superb home win against North Carolina may keep them in the NIT. Beaten at Clemson to end the regular season. Need to go on a run from the 7 seed.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. They are too inconsistent to win it all, I think. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC 2nd Round.
Seeding and Bubble: Probably must beat NC State in the 2nd round to be in consideration for the NCAAs. If they lose they are 20-12 with a NET in the 80s. They are a very likely NIT team.
Stats (3/9): 7th ACC, Record 20-11 (11-9), NET 84 (2-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 79 (SoS 39), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7: 3-0 loss neutral Tennessee; 4-2 win home LSU; 5-2 loss at Virginia; 6-3 win at Georgetown; 7-3 win neutral Oregon). Trailed the whole way against Colgate and then came back to win. Not really that close to Tennessee, but this team may surprise in either direction. Not close to Gonzaga either. Crushed very average LSU and Oregon teams. Blown out at Virginia in game one of the conference. Not able to put Cornell or Georgetown away, but won.
Conference (14: 11-5, 2-3 WIN at Pitt; 13-5, 4-3 LOSS home Florida State; 15-8, 6-6 LOSS home Clemson; 15-9, 6-7 win home North Carolina; 16-10, 7-8 WIN at NC State): Won games 2 and 4 against Pitt and Boston College at home. Controlled and dominated at Duke and North Carolina in games 3 and 4. Good bubble win at Pitt in game 6. Buzzer beating win at home against Miami in game 7. Controlled by Florida State at home in game 8. Nice conference standings home win against NC State in game 9. Dropped to below .500 in the ACC with losses in games 10 and 11 at Boston College and Wake Forest. Barely beat Louisville at home in game 12 to get back to .500 in the ACC. Beaten at home by Clemson in game 13. Great home win against NORTH CAROLINA in game 14. Beaten the very next game at Georgia Tech on the road. Road win at NC State in game 16. Beat Notre Dame in game 17 to get to 9-8 in the ACC. Won at home against Virginia Tech in game 18 which makes 3 in a row. Won at Louiville for their 4th striaght in game 19. Beaten at Clemson to finish the conference season at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Mintz is a player at guard, but I don’t see a lot here to worry about for other Big East teams. New coach Roach will struggle in his first season.

Appalachian State. Appalachian State looks physical for their league.
Prediction: 1st Sun Belt; NIT 1 Seed
At-Large Watch: 30% Chance. The Sun Belt never gets autobids and won’t here but they deserve a good look if they don’t win the tourney. 2-0 in Quad 1 wins. Can’t raise their NET in conference. None of their 5 losses are great so that’s trouble compared to Power 6 schools with big school losses.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 0%. They have clinched the 1 seed as they own the tiebreaker with James Madison. Other teams in conference also could steal this bid it is NOT secure despite their awesome record so far. Eliminated by Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Semifinals..
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/1): 1st Sun Belt, Record 26-5 (16-2), NET 69 (2-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 72 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 12 Seed
Non-Conference (5-2 WIN home Auburn). At home against a good Auburn team, they led the whole way and won.
Conference (16-4, 7-1 home James Madison; 23-5, 13-2 at Marshall): Conference supremacy wins against James Madison, home and away. I saw the home one. Won at Old Dominion in game 15. Beat Marshall in a fairly tough game in game 16. Beat Old Dominion at home in game 17. Beat Arkansas State in game 18 at home to finish the Sun Belt season at 16-2.
Players and Coach: Nation’s leading block team. Can out physical everyone in conference. Very hard to match up with them in the Sun Belt.

St. Bonaventure. God knows what this team will do next.
Prediction: 5th A10; NIT 6 Seed.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% OUT. Really collapsed down to the 7 seed which makes their road much tougher. Beat UMass and Loyola Chicago in the 2nd to last weekend, but lost their last two to the bottom two in conference. Huh? Eliminated by Duquesne in the A10 semifinals.
Stats (3/9): T 7th A10, Record 18-12 (9-9), NET 74 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 90 (SoS 115), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-1 win neutral Oklahoma State; 1-2 loss neutral Auburn; 7-2 loss neutral Florida Atlantic). In the game all the way to the end with Oklahoma State, and beat them. Then struggled with Auburn and Florida Atlantic who controlled them.
Conference (7: 9-3, 0-0 WIN at VCU; 10-4, 1-1 LOSS home Fordham; 11-7, 2-4 home St. Joseph’s; 12-7, 3-4 win home VCU; 14-8, 5-5 home Duquesne): Really nice controlling win at VCU in game 1. Bad CBI qualifying loss at home vs. Fordham in game 3. Won close comeback battle in game 8 home with VCU to get to .500 in the A10. Beat Davidson at home in game 13, just BARELY. Bad loss at 13 seed La Salle in game 14. Outstanding NIT Bubble win over Massachusetts on the road in game 15. Another outstanding NIT bubble iwin in game 16 home with Loyola Chicago. Lost their last 2 to George Washington and Saint Louis and they are NOT an NIT team.
Players and Coach: Great size for the A10. Experienced. Athletic. Balanced scoring. Just no stars. Adams-Wood is their best player and scorer. Venning is a really nice big. Will win and lose as a team. Coach Schmidt is in his 17th season at St. Bonaventure.

NIT 7 Seeds

Indiana. Woodson will coach them up, but I don’t think they are that good.
Prediction: 9th Big 10; NIT 8 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 5% OUT. Beat Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State in their last 4 regular season games.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: Seeding TBD. 9 seeds have a difficult road, but they are a really dangerous low seed. Eliminated by Nebraska in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/10): T 6th Big 10, Record 18-13 (10-10), NET 97 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 93 (SoS 16), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (10: 3-0 loss neutral UConn; 3-1 win neutral Louisville; 7-1 loss neutral Auburn; 7-2 loss home Kansas). Struggled to beat FGCU, Army, Wright State, Harvard, and Morehead State (but won all five). They got hammered by an excellent UConn team and a really good Auburn team. Barely beat Louisville who is not great. Played Kansas very close, but lost, at home.
Conference (11: 5-1, 1-0 win home Maryland; 10-4, 2-1 home win Ohio State; 11-5, 3-2 win home Minnesota; 12-6, 4-3 loss at Wisconsin; 13-8, 5-5 LOSS home Penn State; 14-10, 6-7 LOSS home Northwestern): Dominated Maryland in their first Big 10 game at home. Crushed at Nebraska in game 3 which is NOT a good look. Nice games 4 and 5 wins home with Ohio State and Minnesota. Beaten in game 8 easily at Wisconsin, and then lost a close one in game 9 at Illinois. Won another home game against Iowa in game 10. Penn State beat them at home in game 11. Beaten at purdue in game 12. Home loss to Northwestern in game 14 drops them to 6-8. Lost their third straight Big 10 game home against Nebraska to fall to 6-9 in conference. Beaten at Penn State to fall to 6-10 in conference. Finally righted the ship, ending their 4 game losing streak with an excellent win at home over Wisconsin in game 17. Won at Maryland in another rally win in game 18. Another great bubble win over Minnesota on the road in game 19. Won their 4th bubble game in a row over Michigan State at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: They do have Galloway, and a new forward Ware who is putting up major stats. Xavier Johnson is a good distributing point guard. Woodson is an excellent head coach. Dealing with multiple injuries in the middle of the Big 10 season.

SMU. My NIT dark horse team of the year. So dark they are not going to get in.
Prediction: 4th American; NIT 5 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0%. 4 losses in a row late and 7 losses in the weak American.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% OUT. 6 seed. Atlantic and South Florida and UAB beat them late. Decent teams with no stars usually don’t win tournaments. Eliminated by Temple in the American 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): T 5th American, Record 20-11 (11-7), NET 55 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 60 (SoS 111), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 win neutral West Virginia; 4-1 loss neutral Wisconsin; 6-4 win at Florida State; 8-4 win at Murray State, 9-4, 0-0 win home Charlotte). Took out an undermanned West Virginia on a neutral floor. Led most of the way against Wisconsin. Controlled Florida State on the road. Dominated Murray State on the road. Controlled Charlotte at home in their conference opener.
Conference (7: 10-4, 1-0 loss at Memphis; 13-5, 4-1 loss at North Texas; 13-6, 4-2 loss at Wichita State; 14-7, 5-3 win home UAB; 16-7, 7-3 home North Texas; 19-8, 10-4 at South Florida): Showed their merit in a very close last second shot loss at Memphis in game 2. Beaten at North Texas in game 4. Bad NIT loss at Wichita State in game 7. Won at home against Tulane and UAB in games 8 and 9. Beat North Texas at home in game 11. Beat Memphis at home in game 13. Beaten at Florida Atlantic and South Florida for their 4th and 5th conference losses in game 14 and 15 so their NCAA at-large hopes are over. Then beaten at home by UTSA in a terrible NIT qualification loss in game 16. Beaten at UAB in a major seedings los to fall to 11-7 as their final conference record.
Players and Coach: Kind of a weird team without any stars just a bunch of solid players. Decent big in Ambrose Hylton. Lots of good length. Athletes. Good defense. Kind of just a decent team all around.

Loyola Chicago. One of the best teams that has almost no chance of getting in without the AUTOBID.
Prediction: 3rd A10; NIT 6 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 15% chance. They are really on the outside looking in, but are 2nd in the A10. Should be on the bubble at least. Giant Quad 1 win against Dayton at home. The loss at St. Bonaventure, combined with the home win over Dayton, puts the selection committe in an A10 bind as they are above Dayton in the standings.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 33% STEAL. 2 seed after a GREAT year. They might have to win the A10 to get a bid though. They are a real threat to win it. If they lose in the final it is probably the NIT for them. Eliminated by St. Bonaventure in the A10 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 2nd A10, Record 23-8 (15-3), NET 84 (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 94 (SoS 116), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-2 loss neutral Creighton; 2-3 WIN neutral Boston College). Did not look great against Creighton, and stayed in the game and then upset Boston College at the end. Good win.
Conference (7: 10-6, 2-1 WIN at St. Joseph’s; 11-6, 3-1 win home Massachusetts; 13-6, 5-1 loss at VCU; 18-7, 10-2 WIN at Rhode Island; 19-7, 11-2 win home George Mason; 20-8, 12-3 home Dayton). Nice home win in game 2 home with Duquesne. Alston won game 5 at the end home with Massachusetts. Lost game 7 at VCU in a fairly close game. Beat Davidson in game 9 at home. Beat George Mason by 20 in game 14 at home in a statement win. Then beaten on the road at St. Bonaventure in a game that maybe knocks them out of the NIT in game 15. GREAT late conference win at home against Dayton in game 16. Beat La Salle at home to finish the conference at 15-3.
Players and Coach: Alston is their best player, but they are very small. Watson and Adelekun also good players. Very experienced team so they know what they are doing. Their coach Valentine is a really good deep thinking coach who I think is headed for a major conference job.

Massachusetts.
Prediction: 6th A10; NIT 7 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 5% OUT. Still a tiny chance at getting an at-large bid if they have a good Atlantic 10 tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: Got all the way to the 4 seed somehow and the double bye, await the 12/13 / 5 winner. They have a shot in the conference tourney though. They beat Richmond and VCU in the closing weeks of the season. Eliminated by VCU in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 4th A10, Record 20-10 (11-7), NET 83 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 85 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-2 win neutral West Virginia; 6-2 loss neutral Georgia Tech; 6-3 win neutral Portland; 7-3 neutral Old Dominion). Led the whole way against a very average major conference team in West Virginia on a neutral floor. Lost to Georgia Tech and beat Portland and Old Dominion in Hawaii.
Conference (10-3, 1-0 loss at Dayton; 11-5, 2-2 loss at Loyola Chicago; 14-8, 5-5 win home Rhode Island; 16-9, 7-6 win home VCU; 18-10, 9-7 at Davidson): Played Dayton close, but lost, in game 1. Same result on the road at Loyola Chicago in game 5, a loss. Beat Rhode Island at home in game 11. Beat VCU by 20 at home in a good NIT bubble win in game 14. Bad NIT bubble loss to St. Bonaventure at home in game 15. Good recovery win in game 16 at George Washington with a win. Won at Davidson in game 17. Beat Fordham at home to finish 11-7.
Players and Coach: Frank Martin coaches this young team, but top recruiting class in the A10 so a set of good freshmen. They started well. Cohen, the NEC player of the year last year, is their leading scorer and rebounder. Cross is another good scorer.

NIT 8 Seeds

UCF. Their stats are high because of home wins over Kansas and Oklahoma, but no other wins.
Prediction: 12th Big 12; NIT 8 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0%. The BYU loss in the 2nd round of the conference tourney knocks them out. Lost to Iowa State at home. Won at TCU.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% OUT. Eliminated by BYU in the Big 12 second round.
Seeding and Bubble: Currently one of the last teams out of the NIT. Must win Round 1 against Oklahoma State to get back in the NIT. Their NET is high in the 60s and so I may have them a little low here. Will reevaluate if they beat Oklahoma STate. Beat Oklahoma State. I put them in the NIT. Next up for UCF is 5 seed BYU. This is a huge game for UCF’s post season chances. If they lose that is what is expected and maybe they don’t make the NIT. If they win, then the NCAAs are still are remote possibility. Beaten by BYU. Will they make the NIT at 17-15 and the 12 seed in the Big 12?
Stats (3/9): T 11th Big 12, Record 16-14 (7-11), NET 61 (4-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 60 (SoS 46), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (9-3, 0-0 loss at Kansas State; 10-4, 1-1 LOSS home BYU; 13-11, 4-8 loss at West Virginia). Absolutely destroyed in their Big 12 opener at Kansas State. Did not look like an NIT team. Beaten at home in a last possession game by BYU in game 3. Controlled at West Virginia in game 13. Great 5th conference win at home against Texas Tech. Won at Oklahoma State in game 15. Beaten at home by Iowa State in game 16. Won at TCU in a great last win to finish 7-11.
Players and Coach: NOT in evidence against Kansas State. Dawkins is a defensive coach.

VCU. Ony 5 losses in the A10 is pretty good. Likely 4 seed in the A10.
Prediction: 4th A10; AUTOBID; NCAA First Four Loss
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Lost to all 4 of the top teams toward the end and NET in the 80s.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 25% STEAL. 5 seed, after 3 losses at the end. Await the winner of the 12/13 game. Decent chance at winning the conference tourney with their size. Have proven they can beat Richmond and Dayton so will be a factor.
Stats (3/8): T 4th A10, Record 19-12 (11-7), NET 80 (1-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 87 (SoS 100), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (3-1 loss neutral Iowa State; 3-2 loss neutral Boise State; 3-3 win neutral Penn State; 4-4 loss home Memphis). Losing to both a very decent Iowa State and McNeese State is not a good sign. Losing to Boise State hurts them on the bubble if they get there. Beating what is supposed to be a good Penn State team means they might be better than I think. Very close loss at home against Memphis.
Conference (9: 8-5, 0-0 home LOSS St. Bonaventure; 8-6, 0-1 LOSS home George Washington; 9-7, 1-2 WIN at La Salle; 13-8, 5-3 win home Richmond; 15-8, 7-3 win home Dayton; 16-8, 8-3 WIN at Saint Louis; 18-9, 10-4 home Rhode Island): Controlled at home by St. Bonaventure in game 1. Really struggled at home with George Washington in game 2 and lost. Got a road win at La Salle in game 4. Home wins against Saint Louis and Loyola Chicago in games 5 and 6. Road win at Davidson in game 7. Loss on the road at St. Bonaventure in game 8. Post-season proving wins over previously undefeated Richmond and conference leading Dayton in games 9 and 11. Road win in game 12 at Saint Louis on the road. Beaten by 20 in game 13 at Massachusetts. Won a close one at home against St. Joseph’s in game 14. Blew out Rhode Island at home in game 15. Beaten by 3 in a kind of final separation game by Richmond on the road in game 16. Lost at home to Duquesne an at Dayton in their last 2 games to finish 11-7.
Players and Coach: VCU is REALLY long. A ton of height. Bamisile, a really long guard, is their high scorer. Kuany and Shulgan both are long shooters. Bairstow and Lawal are improving bigs. Jackson is good sized point who manages well. They keep losing games, but could rally.

North Texas. Kind of a dangerous American team.
Prediction: 7th American; NIT 8 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 2% Chance. If they won out and got to the final they would be in the mix with the other NIT level teams and would merit a brief look. But Charlotte and Memphis are also looking up.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 16% OUT. Got the 7 seed and play 10 seed Tulane on day 2 of the American tourney. They are a definite minor threat to win the AUTOBID in an upset from a lower seed. Eliminated by Florida Atlantic in the American quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th American, Record 17-13 (10-8), NET 81 (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 74 (SoS 96), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 loss neutral St. John’s; 271 loss neutral LSU). North Texas looked pretty darn good against a weak St. John’s team. Then they also played LSU well in a loss.
Conference (8: 7-5, 0-0 WIN at Wichita State; 8-5, 1-0 win home Tulane; 9-5, 2-0 win home Temple; 11-6, 4-1 win home SMU; 12-6, 5-1 loss at Florida Atlantic; 12-7, 5-2 win home UAB; 13-9, 6-4 loss at SMU): Really nice win at Wichita State in their conference opener. Game 2, 3 and 4 home wins with Tulane, Temple, and SMU. Played Florida Atlantic close in game 7 loss on the road. Taken to OT at home by UAB. Beaten at SMU in game 11. Beaten at home by UTSA in a terrible game 14. Won at Tulane in game 15. Beat East Carolina at home in a good separation seeding game 16. Beat Rice on the road to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Jones, a guard, is their leader. Edwards is a nice small scoring point guard who really can drive it. They are a very focused defensive team (4th in the country).

Virginia Tech. 10th in the ACC is not getting into the tournament.
Prediction: 10th ACC; NIT 8 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT. Won their last 3 to stay in NIT consideration.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% STEAL. Can win the ACC tourney too in an upset, but coming from the 9 seed is hard. Eliminated by Florida State in the 2nd round of the ACC tourney.
Post-Season and Bubble Watch: With their NET they are in the NIT in all likelihood. The Florida State game eliminated them from NCAA consideration. They SHOULD be in the NIT with their NET, and host a game.
Stats (3/9): T 8th ACC, Record 18-13 (10-10), NET 54 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 52 (SoS 25), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (8: 1-0 loss neutral South Carolina; 4-1 won neutral Iowa State; 5-1 loss Florida Atlantic; 5-2 loss at Auburn; 5-3 win home Louisville). Really messed up their game with South Carolina in a game they easily should have won and then only put away Boise State late. Then controlled Iowa State throughout. Lost in a non-close total blow out game game to Florida Atlantic. Lost badly to Auburn on the road. Very close win with Louisville at home who should be with them close to the bubble. Another nice win against small conference but probably tournament team in Vermont. couple of very nice players.
Conference (12: 10-5, 2-2 LOSS home Miami; 10-7, 2-4 WIN at NC State; 13-7, 5-4 LOSS home Duke; 13-8, 5-5 loss at Miami; 13-10, 5-7 win home Florida State): Blown out in game 2 at Wake Forest on the road. Lost close games at Florida State and Virginia in games 3 and 6. Beat then #21 Clemson at home in game 4 by 10, then lost at home to Miami in game 5. Really nice bubble road win at NC State in game 7. Home wins against Boston College and Georgia Tech in games 8 and 9. Beaten at home by Duke in game 10. Road losses at Miami, Notre Dame and North Carolina in games 11, 12, and 14. Beat Florida State at home in game 13. Absolutely destroyed Virginia at home in game 15 in a nice NIT bubble win. But then lost by 15 in game 16 at Pitt in another bubble game. Beaten pretty easily in game 17 at Syracuse. Controlled Wake Forest in game 18 at home. Won at Louisville in game 19. Beat Notre Dame at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Sean Padulla the experienced guard and a new lanky talented forward Kidd. Cattoor is another scorer for them. But I don’t think their talent holds up in the ACC this year.

Santa Clara. They were in the NIT but losing to Portland hurts. They have a bunch of quality wins though.
Prediction: 4th WCC; NIT 7 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Even if they upset one of the top 2 in the semis no bid.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9%. Clinched the 4 seed. Outside chance of stealing the AUTOBID. The 4 seed plays the winner of the 5 and 8/9 game, and then the 1 seed (likely Saint Mary’s). Likely to lose to the 1 seed in the conference semis. Eliminated by Saint Mary’s in the WCC Semifinals.
Stats (3/2) 4th WCC, Record 19-12 (10-6), NET 109 (2-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 123 (SoS 120), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-0 win neutral Oregon; 6-0 loss neutral Ohio State). Nicely constructed, well coached team that will be hard to beat in any individual game absent a lot of talent. But not a GREAT team. Barely beat a severely undermanned Oregon team. Then got killed by Ohio State on a neutral floor.
Conference (11-6, 2-0 win home Gonzaga; 15-7, 6-1 loss at Saint Mary’s, 17-10, 8-4 win home Loyola Marymount): Outstanding statement win at home against Gonzaga in game 3. Beaten at Saint Mary’s in game 8, but there is no shame in that. Handled Loyola Marymount in game 13. Beaten at Gonzaga in game 14. Upset at Portland in game 15 in a bad pre-tournament and NIT loss. Beat San Francisco at home in a great conference win to finish 10-6.
Players and Coach: Bal, a transfer guard, had 25 points against Oregon. Marshall is a physical big for the WCC which helps them. 2 7 footers, but not super athletic.

BUBBLES BUSTED:

101-110:

Princeton.
Prediction: 1st Ivy; NIT 7 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 5%. Princeton beat kind of everyone just outside of the tourneys. Their NET rating is WAY too high for their schedule.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 40% OUT. One game left at Penn. I think Yale beats them in the tourney. Semifinals in the Ivy will be a war and the final too. Eliminated by Brown in the IVY Semis.
Stats (3/8): 1st Ivy, Record 24-3 (12-2), NET 48 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 58 (SoS 148), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (15-2, 3-1 loss at Yale; 18-3, 6-2 win home Yale): Lost at rival Cornell in game 4, and then lost at other rival Yale in game 5. Both of those losses hurt them for conference standings and put them at risk of missing the 4 team Ivy tourney. Beat Yale in game 9 to close the regular season lead to 1 game. Won at Dartmouth to remain tied for 1st in game 11. Beat Cornell at home in game 13 to even the Top 3 teams with each other at 2-2, and also to put Cornell in the 3 seed. Won at Penn to finish the conference at 12-2.
Players and Coach: They just look like an Ivy league team with no athleticism really, but a lot of solid players.

UC Irvine. Excellent team that could be dangerous as a low seed in the NCAAs.
Prediction: 1st Big West; NIT.
At-Large Watch: 5%. Deserve a look if they lose in the final.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% IN. The 2 seed, UC San Diego, is ineligible for the AUTOBID, so UC Irvine SHOULD get the AUTOBID. The 3 and 4 seeds have 6 AND 8 losses so it would be an upset. Eliminated by Long Beach State in the Big West semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 1st BW, Record 24-8 (17-3), NET 74 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 73 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 13 Seed
Non-Conference (6-3 loss at San Diego State). In the game all the way to the last possession, and blew it, at San Diego State, who is excellent. They looked really good in that game.
Conference (19-7, 12-2 home UC Santa Barbara; 21-8, 14-3 home Long Beach State): Held off UC Santa Barbara in game 15 at home to go 13-2. Beaten at 2 seed UC San Diego in game 16 for their 3rd conference loss. Won at Cal State Northridge in game 17. Won at home against Long Beach State in game 18. Won at Cal State Fullerton to finish the conference at 17-3.
Players and Coach: They are a high energy team who may go undefeated in the Big West and come into the tourney with a gaudy record and maybe a higher seed. They have a point guard averaging 6 assists a game. They do not have major conference size.

St. Joseph’s. I’m not sure they merit being in the CBI.
Prediction: 7th A10; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT. .500 in the A10 with a NET over 100.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. 9 seed. Play 8 seed George Mason in Round 2 of the A10. Pretty much right in the middle of the A10. Eliminated by VCU in the A10 semis.
Post-Season Bubble Watch: Even if they get to the A10 final (and lose), they will not get an NCAA at-large bid. With their NET in the 100s, they need wins to make the NIT and to stay in the CBI with the A10 NIT/CBI logjam. It starts with a win over George Mason in Round 1. Beat George Mason. Next up is 1 seed Richmond. Massive opportunity game and maybe an NIT in or out game. If they lose their NIT hopes are probably in trouble. Beat Richmond. Lost to VCU.
Stats (3/9): T 7th A10, Record 19-12 (9-9), NET 101 (1-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 107 (SoS 135), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 loss at Kentucky; 4-2 win at Villanova). Hmmm. What to say about a team that loses to Texas A&M Commerce, and then has a shot to win the next game AT KENTUCKY? Then, without their big man, beats Villanova? I think the only logical thing.
Conference (8: 10-4, 0-1 loss at Saint Louis; 10-5, 0-2 LOSS home Loyola Chicago; 13-6, 3-3 loss at St. Bonaventure; 14-7, 4-4 WIN at La Salle; 15-7, 4-5 LOSS home Dayton; 17-10, 7-7 at VCU): Terrible bubble busting loss at Saint Louis in game 2. Rebounded and beat LaSalle and Duquesne in games 3 and 5. Blown out at St. Bonaventure in game 7 in a game that ends their NIT chances absent a rally. Road win at La Salle in game 9 to start the rally? Beaten at home by Dayton in game 10. Barely survived at home against Saint Louis in game 11. Beaten at Duquesne in game 13 in a major blow to their post-season hopes. Home win against George Washington in game 14. Beaten at VCU in game 15 to fall below .500 in the A10. Won over Fordham in game 16 at home. Beat Davidson at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Reynolds is their scoring leader, a shooting guard. The two Browns in their rotation are good contributors. They have some size and experience with lots of players back. But I didn’t see a ton of talent, just experience. Lang is their low profile coach.

LSU. Were really coming on, then they lost at Arkansas in their 2nd to last game.
Prediction: 10th SEC; No Tournament
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. 14 losses, NET in the 80s.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% OUT. Terrible home loss to Mississippi State hurts. Barely beat Georgia in a very tough game. Beaten at Arkansas badly. Winning the SEC from a low Seed is HARD. Eliminated by Mississippi State in the 2nd Round of the SEC tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 7th SEC, Record 17-14 (9-9), NET 92 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 91 (SoS 68), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7: 1-1 loss neutral Dayton; 2-2 win neutral Wake Forest; 4-2 loss at Syracuse; 5-3 loss home Kansas State; 6-4 loss neutral Texas). Pulled away from Dayton at times but they lost in the end. Barely beat North Texas, who is good but not great. Barely beat a pretty bad Wake Forest team in OT. Lost badly at Syracuse. Controlled by Kansas State at home and by Texas on a neutral court.
Conference (11: 8-5, 0-0 WIN at Texas A&M; 10-6, 2-1 win home Ole Miss; 11-6, 3-1 LOSS home Texas A&M; 12-10, 4-5 LOSS home Alabama; 12-12, 4-7 WIN at South Carolina): Outstanding win at Texas A&M in game 1. Beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at home in games 2 and 4. Defeated soundly at Auburn in game 3. Beaten at home by Texas A&M in game 5. Last possession loss at Georgia in game 6. Beaten soundly at Alabama in game 7. Nice win at home against Arkansas in game 8. Beaten at Tennessee and Florida in games 9 and 11. Beaten at home by Alabama in game 10. Nice win in the too little too late category at South Carolina in game 12. Another nice win home against Kentucky in game 13! Beaten by 20 at home by Mississippi State in an ugly bubble game for them in game 14. In a real war in game 15 home against Georgia, and barely held on for the win. Beat Vanderbilt on the road in game 16. Arkansas ended their tourney dreams entirely in game 17 on the road. Beat Missouri at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Lots of size and athleticism. Center Will Baker is the high scorer, shoots the three. Wright is a major scorer for them, averaging 15. Don’t appear to be the smartest team. Coach is in his second year, still unproven.

Xavier. The kind of team that could go on a late run.
Prediction: 9th Big East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT. 15 losses. 4 bubble Big East teams would get in before them.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% STEAL. They are in the 8/9 game in the Big East tourney. Maybe could steal the Big East tourney. Outside chance. But will finish close to .500 so usually not something that happens. Eliminated by UConn in the Big East quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: Xavier is trying to play their way back into the NIT. Beat Butler. The win over Butler helps, and now they have UConn so need bubble analysis shortly.
Stats (3/9): T 8th Big East, Record 15-16 (9-11), NET 62 (2-11 Quad 1), Ken Pom 53 (SoS 13), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (11: 2-0 loss at Purdue; 2-1 loss neutral Washington; 4-2 LOSS home Oakland; 4-4 LOSS home Delaware; 4-5 home Cincinnati). Xavier took two upset losses early in the season to small conference teams. In the game against Houston all the way at home, but lost. Kind of in the game against Purdue, but only kind of. Lost a close game to a pretty average Washington team, lost to both a disciplined Oakland team AND a solid Delaware team.
Conference (14: 7-7, 1-2 LOSS home UConn; 7-8, 1-3 WIN at Providence; 10-8, 4-3 LOSS home Creighton; 12-10, 6-5 win home Villanova; 13-10, 7-5 LOSS home Creighton; 13-11, 7-6 home Seton Hall): Lost at St. John’s in a pretty bad game for them. Then beat Seton Hall and Butler at home in games 2 and 6. Played Villanova to a last possession loss on the road in game 3, and 2 more close losses at home with UConn and Creighton in games 4 and 8. Good post season qualifying win at Providence in game 5. Barely beat Georgetown at home in game 6. Lost at UConn in game 9. Beat St. John’s and Villanova at home in games 10 and 12. Road win at DePaul in game 11. Beaten at home by Creighton in game 13. Beaten on the road at Seton Hall in game 14. Brutal home bubble loss to Providence in game 15. Beaten at Marquette in game 16 to fall 2 games below .500 in conference. Beat DePaul at home in game 17. Won at Georgetown in game 18. Beaten at Butler in game 19. Beaten by Marquette at home to finish the Big East at 9-11.
Players and Coach: Des Claude, a transfer, was the likely star. Transfer Olivari can shoot the three and is the star. Ousmane is their rim protector.

Charlotte. If they get to the final of the American tourney they will be hard to keep out of the tournament despite their NET.
Prediction: 6th American; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 2%. They have the unfortunate situation of not being named South Florida, Florida Atlantic or Memphis this year. The American is NOT getting 4 teams in. They beat Florida Atlantic! That’s their only good win. Lost at Memphis in a bad bubble loss late in February. The Tulsa loss hurts. Home loss to South Florida hurts too.
Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. Got the 3 seed and the double bye. I don’t think they make the NIT even, but they are close. Eliminated by Temple in the American quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 3rd American, Record 19-11 (13-5), NET 105 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 113 (SoS 106), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-3 at Duke; 6-6, 0-0 at SMU). Controlled at Duke.
Conference (6: 6-7, 0-0 loss at SMU; 8-7, 2-1 WIN at UTSA; 12-7, 6-1 WIN at Tulane; 13-7, 7-1 win home East Carolina; 14-7, 8-1 loss at South Florida; 16-8, 10-2 win home Wichita State). Controlled at SMU in their conference opener. Beat UTSA in game 3. Nice American resume win at Tulane in game 8. Beat East Carolina at home to get to 8-1 in game 9. Beaten at South Florida in game 10. Beaten at Memphis in game 14 by 24 for their 3rd conference loss. Beaten by Tulsa on the road in game 15 which does NOT help their NIT hopes. Beaten at home in a real separation loss by South Florida in game 16. Beat East Carolina on the road to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Milicic, a forward, can score. Jackson is another good big. Patterson, a guard, is their leading scorer. They have five players over 6’10”. They play very slow, half-court possessions. They have an interim coach who will not be interim for long with their start. Fern is their Australian Coach.

Georgia. It’s a sign of how their season has gone that they are tied with Arkansas at the bottom.
Prediction: 11th SEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. 15 losses and 11th in the SEC.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% STEAL. Will be the 11 or 12 seed. Very hard to win the SEC from there. Will Need 5 wins! Eliminated by Florida in the SEC 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): T 11th SEC, Record 16-15 (6-12), NET 102 (1-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 92 (SoS 64), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss neutral Oregon; 2-1 loss neutral Miami; 2-2 loss neutral Providence; 3-3 win at Florida State; 5-3 win home Georgia Tech): Really struggled early on offense vs Oregon. Dismantled by a very good Miami team. In a close loss with Providence on a neutral floor. Came back and beat Florida State in a great road win. Nice win at home against a decent Georgia Tech team. Played to a close game at home with High Point.
Conference (12: 10-3, 0-0 WIN at Missouri; 12-3, 2-0 LOSS home Tennessee; 12-4, 2-1 WIN at South Carolina; 14-6, 4-3 LOSS home Alabama; 14-7, 4-4 LOSS home South Carolina; 14-10, 4-7 LOSS home Florida): Really nice win at Missouri in game 1. Win home with Arkansas in game 2. Led most of the way and lost at home to Tennessee in game 3. Excellent road win at South Carolina in game 4. Beaten at Kentucky in game 5. Last possession game 6 win home with LSU. OT loss at Florida in game 7. Beaten at home by Alabama and South Carolina in games 8 and 9 to drop to under .500. Another loss at Mississippi State in game 10. Another loss at Arkansas in game 10 to drop to 4-7. Another loss at Florida in game 12. Win at Vanderbilt in game 13 to get to 5-8. Beaten at home by Auburn in game 14 and their post season hopes are not really there. Lost at LSU on a last possession in game 15. Beaten at home by Texas A&M in game 16. Did spoil Ole Miss’s tourney dreams with a home win over them in game 17. Beaten at Auburn to finish 6-12 in conference.
Players and Coach: New guards, lots of freshmen. Tchewa is huge at forward. Abdur Rahim the veteran. Demery (sp?) is a nice player. Thomasson another nice big. Athletic and fast, looks like a lot of depth, but maybe talent doesn’t measure up. Mike White is a young coach with a good reputation.

Cornell. Will come down to the IVY Tourney.
Prediction: 3rd Ivy; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. No good wins and Princeton would get the 2nd Ivy bid if Yale wins.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 33% OUT. Won home against Yale and Princeton, lost at Yale and Princeton. Need to take out Princeton and Yale. In the 2/3 game agaisnt Yale. Eliminated by Yale in the Ivy semifinals.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd Ivy, Record 22-6 (11-3), NET 91 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 99 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-1 at Syracuse). In the game the whole way at Syracuse, but not enough. Syracuse is not that good and they could not beat them, though it was a road game.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Pennsylvania in game 12 on the road. Lost to Princeton by 2 on the road in game 13 to even all the top 3 at 2-2 against each other. Won at Columbia to finish the conference at 11-3.
Players and Coach:

111-120:

Florida State. Quintessential bottom half of the NIT major conference team at this point.
Prediction: 9th ACC; NIT 7 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT. 10 losses in the ACC now. 9 seed. 8/9 game against Virginia Tech. They need the ACC AUTOBID to play in the tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% STEAL. 4 ACC Road wins already makes them a threat in the conference tourney. I’m probably underestimating them, but I just don’t see it. Eliminated by North Carolina in the ACC quarterfinals.
Post-Season and Bubble Watch: Even if they get to the final of the ACC I do not think they get an at-large with their NET in the 90s and 15 losses. So they are playing for NIT and CBI seeding unless they get the AUTOBID somehow. Beat Virginia Tech in the 8/9 game. The Virginia Tech win really helps them get into the NIT., though their NET is very low, but not the NCAAs! Next up 1 seed North Carolina which is a massive opportunity game and would probably clinch the NIT for them. If they lose, the might not make the NIT.
Stats (3/9): T 8th ACC, Record 16-15 (10-10), NET 95 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 82 (SoS 38), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 2-0 loss at Florida; 3-1 win neutral Colorado; 4-1 home loss Georgia; 4-2 at North Carolina; 4-4 LOSS home SMU). Totally destroyed by Florida. Then beat UNLV, who is supposed to be good in the Mountain West, pretty handily. Then beat a highly ranked Colorado team. Then lost to Georgia when they had a huge lead. Lost to South Florida on a neutral court by a LOT.
Conference (15: 9-6, 3-1 WIN at Notre Dame; 10-6, 4-1 WIN at Miami; 11-6, 5-1 LOSS home Clemson; 11-7, 5-2 WIN at Syracuse; 12-7, 6-2 LOSS home North Carolina; 12-9, 6-4 WIN at Boston College; 13-9, 7-4 LOSS home Virginia; 13-11, 7-6 LOSS home Duke): Lost pretty easily at North Carolina. Controlled Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest at home in game 2-4. THREE road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse in games 5, 6 and 8. Beaten at home in games 7 and 9 by Clemson and North Carolina. Bad conference loss at Louisville in game 10 to drop to 6-4 in the ACC. Road win at Boston College to rally in game 11. Very tough home loss to Virginia in game 12 for bubble purposes as it was a blown opportunity. Beaten at Virginia Tech in game 13. Beaten at home by Duke in game 14 to drop to .500 in conference. Home win against Boston College in game 15. Beaten at Clemson in game 16. Excellent bubble home win over NC State in game 17. But beaten by 16 at Georgia Tech in maybe an NIT blowing loss in game 18. Beaten at Pitt by 15 in game 19. Beat Miami at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Very big. Lost Fletcher to injury for the year which really hurts them. Watkins is a good player. Nice guards including Spears. I have never believed in Leonard Hamilton, but he is experienced as a coach.

Drexel. Was leading the conference but picked up 5 losses somehow. I think they get the AUTOBID.
Prediction: 1st Coastal; CBI.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 51% IN. 2 seed. I think Drexel wins the Coastal tourney in this one-bid league. They will be the 2-5 seed. Towson, Charleston, Hofstra, and UNC Wimington all can steal their bid. Is the Coastal a one bid league? I think so. Eliminated by Stony Brook in the Coastal semifinals.
Stats (3/2): 2nd CAA, Record 20-11 (13-5), NET 122 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 124 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-6 win home Hampton). Absolutely destroyed Hampton which is a very good omen for their place in the Coastal.
Conference (12-6, 5-0 win home Monmouth; 17-10, 10-4 at Hofstra; 17-11, 10-5 at Delaware): Started 5-0. In a close war at home against Monmouth, but pulled it out in game 6. Lost at Hofstra in a real bad seeding loss in game 15. Nice road win at Delaware in game 16. Home win over Stony Brook in game 17. Beat Northeastern at home to finish the conference 13-5.
Players and Coach: Most athletic CAA team. Williams a nice big, is their leader – points, rebounds and blocks. They played a tough non-conference season and could win the Coastal.

Minnesota. This is my team. I think, objectively, they are dangerous against most teams.
Prediction: 9th Big 10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 1% Chance. If they beat Michigan State and Purdue…..
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 9 seed and a brutal path to the championship with Michigan State and Purdue in their first 2 games. Too inconsistent to win it all but might pull 1 or 2 upsets. Eliminated by Michigan State in the 2nd Round of the Big 10 tournament.
Stats (3/9): T 9th Big 10, Record 18-13 (9-11), NET 86 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 75 (SoS 83), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (all games): They almost beat Missouri at home in their only challenging non-conference game. Their on1y other non-conference loss was at San Francisco who isn’t a bad team.
Conference (12-7, 3-5 WIN at Penn State; 13-7, 4-5 win home Northwestern; 14-7, 5-5 win home Michigan State): They beat Nebraska at home in game 2 and Michigan on the road in a good win for them. Lost at Indiana in game 5, but Indiana played REALLY well. Then lost game 6 at home against Iowa in a real heartbreaking loss for their post season and conference hopes. Then lost at Michigan State, but really fought in game 7. Beaten in a heartbreak last possession game at home with Wisconsin. Then won at Penn State in game 9. Nice wins in games 10 and 11 against Northwestern and Michigan State at home. Beaten at Iowa in game 12 when Dawson Garcia got hurt which was VERY unfortunate. In the game at Purdue but lost by 10 in game 13. Beat Rutgers in an NIT bubble game in game 14. Beat Ohio State in game 15 at home that almost seemed routine which is new for the Gophers. Beaten at Nebraska by 15+ in game 16 in a game Nebraska really dominated. Played amazingly well in game 17 at Illinois and lost by 10. Outstanding come from behind bubble and seeding win over Penn State in game 18. Terrible NIT hopes loss at home against Indiana in game 19. Beaten at Northwestern to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Garcia and Payne are nice bigs and they have some very athletic depth. Mitchell and Hawkins (leading the nation in assists), their new guards, are a step up from last year. Freshman Christie is really becoming a gamer as the season progresses. Johnson has REALLY improved his coaching this year.

UMass Lowell. Highest rated team I have not seen once this year.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 2nd America East; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Beating Georgia Tech is NOT enough. They need the AUTOBID.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. 2 seed. America East Quarterfinal against UMBC. Eliminated by Vermont in the America East final.
Stats (2/29): 2nd AE, Record 20-9 (11-5), NET 133 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 144 (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Won home against Binghamton and Albany in games 12 and 13 to get to 10-3. Then beat Bryant at home in game 14. Lost at Vermont and MAINE in their last 2 games to end the conference at 11-5.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet, based on KenPom).

Northern Iowa. May be worthy of NIT consideration if they get some conference wins.
Prediction: 4th MVC; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT. Their hopes of the post-season have been plummetting down to .500 in the MVC, and losing to teams below them. Ruined Drake’s NCAA dreams probably, and might have ruined Southern Illinois’ NIT dreams.
Conference Tourney Big Steal Watch: 8% STEAL. Got the 4 seed and the first round bye by winning on the road at Southern Illinois which was a major pressure win. Right now it looks like they won’t win the AUTOBID, but a very dangerous conference 4 seed. The 4/5 game against Belmont will be a major NIT play in game if it happens.
Stats (3/3): T 4th MVC, Record 18-13 (12-8), NET 109 (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 107 (SoS 98), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-2 loss neutral North Carolina; 1-3 loss neutral Texas Tech). Northern Iowa was picked to win the MVC, but in their game against North Carolina I didn’t see it. North Carolina is good, but not that good. Then they lost to a pretty average major Texas Tech.
Conference (9-8, 3-3 WIN at Belmont; 10-8, 4-3 win home Southern Illinois; 12-9, 6-4 loss at Bradley; 12-10, 6-5 LOSS home Murray State): Excellent conference road win at Belmont in game 7, avenging an earlier season loss to them at home. Held off Southern Illinois in a crazy game at home. Lost at Bradley in game 11. Absolutely destroyed by Murray State at home in game 12. Beaten at Illinois State in a game that likely ended their post-season hopes. Crushed Drake’s dreams in a win at home in game 18. Beat Valparaiso at home in game 19. Won at Southern Illinois to pip Belmont for the 4 seed and the first round bye which is HUGE in game 20, and finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: They do look organized and capable, so we will see against future opponents. Heise almost had a triple double in the game I saw. Jacobson is the all time winningest coach in the MVC.

Boston College. Getting some wins in the ACC.
Prediction: 11th ACC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Got their 14th loss at home with Pitt.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% STEAL. 11 seed. Round 1 against Miami. Have not shown the ability to beat the top of the conference but fighting to the middle of the pack. One or two upsets, maybe. Eliminated by Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble: Boston College is playing for the NIT. Their NET is low enojugh that they might not get one of the 12 NIT NET bids and would have to qualify. Beating Miami in Round 1 gets that started.
Stats (3/9): 11th ACC, Record 17-14 (8-12), NET 96 (1-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 95 (SoS 78), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-0 loss neutral Colorado State; 4-1 loss neutral Loyola Chicago; 4-2 win at Vanderbilt; 6-2 home NC State; 7-3 win home St. John’s). Controlled by a good Colorado State team, then couldn’t put away Loyola Chicago. Nice dominant win at Vanderbilt on the road. Nicer win vs. St. John’s at home.
Conference (13: 9-3, 0-1 LOSS home Wake Forest; 9-4, 0-2 WIN at Georgia Tech; 10-6, 11-6, 2-4 LOSS home North Carolina; 11-8, 2-6 WIN at Notre Dame; 13-8, 4-6 LOSS home Florida State; 15-12, 6-10 LOSS home Virginia): Very close loss at home with Wake Forest in game 2. Came to play in game 3 at Georgia Tech and won going away. Lost at Syracuse, Clemson and Virginia Tech in games 4 and 5 and 8. Barely beat Notre Dame at home in game 6. Lost game 7 at home to North Carolina. Road win at Notre Dame in game 9. Home win against Syracuse in game 10. Last possession home loss to Florida State in game 11. Beaten at Duke in game 12 to drop to 4-8. Beat Louisville and Miami in games 13 and 14 at home. Road losses to Florida State and NC State in games 15 and 16. Beaten at home by Virginia and Pitt in games 17 and 18. Beat Miami on the road in a seeding win game 19. Won at Louisville to finish 8-12 in conference.
Players and Coach: Low Energy. I didn’t see a lot of athleticism in their game, which does not bode well for their ACC campaign. Post, a center, is maybe their best player. I think they are going to lose a lot of games in conference. Grant is a fairly new coach and he is coaching well with this team as they are improving as the season goes on.

George Mason. Getting some late wins to stay in the CBI.
Prediction: 8th A10; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. .500 in the A10.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% chance. 8 seed. Play 9 seed St. Joseph’s in Round 2 of the A10. Pretty dangerous lower seed. Nice Quad 1 win over Dayton at home. Won their last 2. Need a few upsets to get the AUTOBID. Unlikely but possible given the Dayton win. Eliminated by St. Joseph’s in the 2nd round of the A10 tourney.
Post-Season Bubble Watch: They will not make the NCAA tournament. With their NET in the 90s, they will even have a hard time making the NIT. The loss to St. Joseph’s jeopardizes even their CBI hopes!
Stats (3/9): T 7th A10, Record 20-11 (9-9), NET 93 (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 94 (SoS 120), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (12-2, 1-0 win home Saint Louis; 13-4, 2-2 loss at George Washington; 15-8, 4-6 WIN at Davidson; 18-8, 7-6 at Loyola Chicago): Blow out win in game 2 with Saint Louis at home. Controlled at George Washington in game 5. Road win at Davidson in game 11. GREAT upset win at home against Dayton in game 13. Blown out at Loyola Chicago in game 14 in an UGLY post season hope loss. Followed that with another bad loss at Fordham and may not make the CBI. Followed that with a loss at home to Duquesne and their CBI hopes are done. Then, beat Richmond at home to get back on the CBI bubble.
Players and Coach: Henry and Hall are nice not huge forwards for them. They have a lot of transfers in and a new coach so we will see where they are at the end of the season.

Louisiana Tech. Beaten by Sam Houston at home to fall to the 2 seed. It is gonna be one of those two.
Prediction: 1st CUSA; AUTOBID; 13 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 2% chance. Decent NET for a CUSA team. Lost quite a bit in the non-conference to similarly situated teams.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 65% IN. If they lose in the conference tournament, they are an NIT or CBI team. Eliminated by Middle Tennessee State in the CUSA quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 2nd CUSA, Record 22-9 (12-4), NET 92 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 90 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT (Sam Houston 15 Seed)
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (10-6, 0-1 win at Middle Tennessee; 11-6, 1-1 win home Liberty; 16-7, 6-2 at Liberty; 21-8, 11-3 home Sam Houston): Lost to Sam Houston in game 1 in a game I didn’t see. Nice win in game 2 on the road at Middle Tennessee. Beat Liberty in OT at home in game 4. Last possession loss at Liberty in game 9 to drop back into the top of the pack in CUSA. Won at UTEP and at New Mexico State in games 12 and 13. Won at Western Kentucky in game 14. Beaten at home by Sam Houston in game 15 to fall to the 2 seed in a close game. Beat Middle Tennessee to finish the conference at 12-4.
Players and Coach: Batcho is a big solid CUSA big. They have a couple of other scoring rebounding bigs in Crawford and Ree, and are otherwise very physical for the CUSA. Newman is a very physical guard for CUSA and can control conference games.

High Point. Dominated the Big South will they get the AUTOBID?
Prediction: 1st Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. They are 24-7 but their NET is below 100 and they just lost to Longwood on the road.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 60% IN. Clinched the 1 seed. Only 3 losses all conference season, including at UNC Asheville on the road. UNC Asheville the most likely bid thief. Eliminated by Longwood in the Big South semifinals.
NIT Watch: 30% chance. Low NET but they were a regular conference champ, and their NET is acceptable.
Stats (3/2): 1st Big South, Record 25-8 (13-3), NET 109 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 111 (SoS 250+), Lunardi 14 seed.
Non-Conference (8-3 loss at Georgia). Led well into the game against Georgia before losing at the end.
Conference (18-4, 7-0 home Longwood): Won at Charleston Southern in game 14. Lost by 2 at seed motivated Longwood when they had already clinched in their last game to finish 13-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Miles, a transfer guard, is their best player. Nice overall team. Huss in his first season as coach is performing.

UNC Wilmington. 6 loss team in 3rd in conference. Still a chance.
Prediction: 3rd Coastal; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Even if they won out to the final they would not be in.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% STEAL. Beat Towson for the 4 and maybe the 3 seed in their last game. Will have to beat Drexel, Towson and Charleston in the tourney to take the AUTOBID. But they are a likely upset target with their poor performance of late. Eliminated by Towson in the Coastal quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 3rd CAA, Record 21-9 (12-6), NET 112 (1-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 114 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-2 WIN at Kentucky; 9-2 loss at Arkansas). It’s too bad the win AT KENTUCKY doesn’t help them unless they get an at-large bid. Controlled by Arkansas on the road. But it sure is a good sign for their conference hopes.
Conference (11-5, 1-2 win home Delaware; 12-5, 3-2 win home Charleston; 14-5, 5-2 loss at Stony Brook; 20-7, 11-4 at Campbell; 20-9 home Towson): Somehow lost their first 2 conference games. Beat Delaware and Charleston at home in game 4 and 6. Lost their third CAA game at Stony Brook in game 8. Won at William & Mary in game 15. Taken to 2 overtimes at Campbell in game 16, and lost a bad conference and CBI seeding game. Then followed that up with another loss at home to Hofstra in game 17. Beat Towson in a massive seeding game 18 to finish at 12-6 in conference.
Players and Coach: White is their best player, a decent sized forward. McGriff is another good physical big for the conference. Coach Siddle (sp?) is building something in Wilmington.

121-130

Southern Illinois. Might make the tourneys if they execute and teams don’t shut Johnson down.
Prediction: 5th MVC; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 1%. Still a chance, but not a real one. Drake and Bradley would need to get in first.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 16%. Decent MVC team, probably need the conference tourney and the AUTOBID. Beaten at Bradley for the 8th conference loss in the MVC. Beaten by their fellow 4th place team Northern Iowa at home. That may be a CBI bubble game. 6 seed. Eliminated by UIC in the 1st Round of the MVC tourney.
Stats (3/3): 6th MVC, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 107 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 112 (SoS 140), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-0 loss neutral James Madison; 3-1 win neutral New Mexico State; 5-2 win home Oklahoma State). Came out on fire New Mexico State and just blew them out. Then were down HUGE to James Madison and came back and almost won. Nice win against fairly poor major Oklahoma State at home.
Conference (12-4, 4-1 LOSS home Drake; 12-6, 4-3 loss at Northern Iowa): Really controlled by Drake which is not good for their outlook in conference. Beaten on the road in game 8 Northern Iowa, despite Johnson hitting everything at the end. Beat Murray State at home to get to 10-7 in game 17. Road win at Evansville in game 18. Beaten at Bradley in game 19 in a losing separation game. Beaten at home by Northern Iowa in a bad seeding loss to end the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach: This team will go as far as Xavier Johnson takes them. Had 30+ in multiple games early, and looks like a major conference big time player. Might lead the nation in scoring.

UNC Greensboro. Good Southern team could get the AUTOBID. Also could miss the CBI.
Prediction: 2nd Southern; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Two bad upsets at the end of the year.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 20% STEAL. The upsets at Mercer and East Tennessee State hurt their CBI chances badly. 2 seed Definitely will contend for the conference tourney title with Samford and maybe Chattanooga. Eliminated by East Tennessee State in the Southern quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 2nd Southern, Record 21-10 (12-6), NET 128 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 138 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (10-6, 2-1 win at Chattanooga; 16-6, 7-2 WIN at Furman; 17-6, 8-2 LOSS home Samford): Nice controlling win by 15 at a decent Chattanooga team. Then beat Furman on the road in game 10 to go 8-2 in conference. Hopes of winning the conference crushed at home by Samford in game 11. Beat Western Carolina in game 15 to get to 11-4 and the 2 seed. Beaten at Mercer in game 16 in a bad seeding and CBI loss. Beat VMI at home in game 17. Beaten at East Tennessee State to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: Brown-Jones is a great big. Langley twins are their best players. They are small and would have a hard time with major conference teams.

Belmont. Performing far worse than I thought they would. They have an easy remaining schedule.
Prediction: 5th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Good season, but too many losses from the MVC.
Conference tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% OUT. Definitely could steal the bid, though Indiana State and Drake are tough. Eliminated by Northern Iowa in the MVC quarterfinals.
NIT Watch: 3% chance. NET in the 110s. Beaten by a fellow NIT bubble team in the MVC quarters.
Stats (3/15): T 4th MVC, Record 20-13 (12-8), NET 117 (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 113 (SoS 112), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-3 win at Middle Tennessee). Controlled the game against an OK Middle Tennessee team.
Conference (9-5, 2-1 win home Drake; 11-6, 4-2 LOSS home Northern Iowa): Absolutely destroyed a good Drake team in game 4. Lost to Northern Iowa at home in game 7. Beaten at Drake to fall to 9-8 after game 17. Beat Missouri State at home in game 18. Beat Murray State on the road in game 19. Beat Evansville at home to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: They start a four guard lineup.

Western Carolina. Will go as far as Woolbright takes them. May merit late CBI consideration.
Prediction: 4th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Too many Southern losses.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% STEAL. 4 seed. Quarterfinal against Furman. This team seems like a threat and Woolbright could win the tourney. Eliminated by Furman in the Southern quarterfinals.
NIT Watch: 5%. 4th in the Southern and a NET in the 100s. But beaten in the conference quarter finals.
Stats (3/15): 4th Southern, Record 22-10 (11-7), NET 110 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 107 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8-2 WIN at Vanderbilt). The early win at Vanderbilt tells me yes, and with Woolbright they can easily win the Southern Tournament.
Conference (15-2, 4-0 loss home Samford; 18-7, 7-5 loss at Samford): In a real war at home with Samford, and lost. Blown out at Samford in game 13. Beaten at UNC Greensboro in game 15. Beat Furman at home to tie them for 4th in conference with 1 game to go. Won at Chattanooga to finish 11-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Woolbright is a point forward with skills, averaging a double double early. And hje can pass. Preseason player of the year in the Southern. Will the rest of the team hold up and support him? For now I have them in second.

UT Arlington. Working their way into post-season consideration. 7-2 in their last 9.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 3rd WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 19% Chance. 3 seed. Beat Stephen F. Austin. Eliminated by Grand Canyon in the WAC final.
NIT Watch: 3% chance. NET is awfully low but still alive.
Stats (3/5): 3rd WAC, Record 19-13 (13-7), NET 129 (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 116 (SoS 138), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Won at Seattle U to catch them in the standings in game 18. Beat Cal Baptist to finish the conference at 13-7.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Seattle U. Might make the post season because Tarleton State is ineligible.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 4th WAC; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Had a sneak in chance for a while, but no longer.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% OUT. 4 seed. Beat Cal Baptist.
NIT Watch: 0%. If they beat Grand Canyon they are in the NCAA tournmanet unless Tarleton State loses. Eliminated by Grand Canyon in the WAC semifinals.
Stats (3/15): T 4th WAC, Record 19-13 (11-9), NET 119 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 120 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten by UT Arlington at home in a real CBI choke game. Lost to Tarleton State to finish the conference season at 11-9.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Toledo. This team probably should be in the NIT or even the NCAAs, but they don’t have any good wins
Prediction: 2nd MAC; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. No MAC team is getting an AUTOBID this year. Poor conference quality.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 45% Chance. Got the 1 seed. First round against 8 seed Kent State. Eliminated by Kent State in the MAC quarterfinals.
NIT Watch: 1% The stats do not justify it, but they were the regular season MAC champs.
Stats (3/15): 1st MAC, Record 20-12 (14-4), NET 130 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 138 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (7: 6-6, 0-0 WIN at Ohio; 8-6, 2-0 WIN at Kent State; 11-6, 5-0 LOSS at Central Michigan; 14-7, 8-1 loss at Akron; 17-9, 11-2 at Bowling Green). Really nice conference road wins in games 1 and 3 at Ohio and Kent State. Held off Miami (OH) in game 2. Beaten at Central Michigan in game 6 in an end to their 20 game MAC winning streak. Beaten at Akron for supremacy in the MAC in game 10. Beat Ohio at home in game 12 to get to 10-2. Beat Akron in game 13 to tie for first in conference. Dropped the very next game at Bowling Green for their 3rd conference loss. Then lost another one home against Northern Illinois right when Akron lost in game 15. Beat Buffalo and Miami Ohio on the road in games 16 and 17. Beat Kent State at home to finish 14-4 in conference.
Players and Coach: Definitely 1st or 2nd in the MAC this year. Good athletic defensive team. Moss is a good point guard. Maddox is another good scoring guard. They start a 6’2″ big. Not huge, so will struggle if they make the post-season against major conference teams. Kowalchuk is an experienced coach.

Ohio. Decent in the fairly down MAC conference. Rising mid-major team.
Prediction: 3rd MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 1% Chance. If they got to the final and won out otherwise?
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 24% Chance. 3 seed. Quarterfinal against Western Michigan. Good enough to beat Akron and Toledo in the conference tournament, as they just demonstrated. Beat Western Michigan. Eliminated by Akron in the MAC semifinals.
NIT Watch: 0% chance. NET in the 130s, but 2nd in the MAC and good tourney.
Stats (3/15): T 2nd MAC, Record 20-12 (13-5), NET 136 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 142 (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-6 loss home Toledo). Bad early conference loss home with Toledo if they are hoping to win the MAC.
Conference (9-10, 3-4 WIN at Kent State; 13-11, 7-4 loss at Toledo): Nice MAC win at Kent State in game 8. Close but no cigar at Toledo in game 12. Beat Kent State at home in game 13 to separate themselves to the top 6 seeds. Outstanding win at home against 1 seed Akron in game 15. Followed that up with a separation win over Bowling Green at home in game 16. Won at Buffalo in game 17. Won their 5th straight over Miami (OH) in game 18 to finish 13-5 in conference.
Players and Coach: No big scorer just a lot of players averaging 10 a game. Brown, a guard, has a great reputation in the MAC. Hunter and Mitchell also good solid players. Experienced and well-coached. Can beat you if you don’t out talent them.

Youngstown State. Proving themselves to be among the best in the Horizon.
Prediction: 2nd Horizon; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 2% Chance. If they got to the final they would finish at 24-10. NET 128 hurts.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 38% Chance. They lost at home to Green Bay the 2 seed then beat them 4 games later on the road. Lost at Cleveland State in a CBI hopes crushing loss. Conference season is over and they clinched at least a 3 seed. Definitely a force to be reckoned with in the Horizon tourney. Eliminated by Cleveland State in the quarterfinals of the Horizon.
Stats (3/15): 2nd Horizon, Record 22-10 (14-6), NET 131 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 134 (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Michigan). Not competitive, at all, against a decent Michigan team.
Conference (12-5, 4-2 win home Wright State; 16-6, 8-3 WIN at Wright State): Won both games with Wright State I saw, easily. Won at Milwaukee in game 18. Beat Detroit Mercy at home in their last game.
Players and Coach: Balanced team. Rush, a guard, is their leader.

Chattanooga. Fading a bit at the end.
Prediction: 3rd Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. If they won out and got to the final they would be 23-11. Not good enough from the Southern.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. 3 seed. Lost 3 of 5 at the end to drop to the 3 seed. Definitely one of the rivals to Samford, but too many Southern losses. Eliminated by ETSU in the Southern semifinals.
Stats (3/15): T 2nd Southern, Record 21-12 (12-6), NET 140 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 139 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8-4 at Auburn). Shoot the three a ton. Not in a tough game at Auburn, but I think they will be fine in the Southern.
Conference (10-6, 2-1 LOSS home UNC Greensboro; 11-7, 3-2 WIN at ETSU; 18-8, 10-3 loss at Furman): Tough loss at home against UNC Greensboro. Good road win at ETSU. Really bad seeding and postseason hope road loss at Furman in game 14 to get to 4 losses in conference. Even worse lost at The Citadel in game 16. Beat Mercer at home in game 17 to recoever. Lost at home to Western Carolina in game 18 in another bad CBI hopes loss.
Players and Coach: Shoot the three a ton. Really limited by UNC Greensboro. Bonham their best player was out at the beginning of the year. They have some good big components with Zidek and others.

131-140

Troy. Really good team who might not make the post season at all.
Prediction: 3rd Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Texas State loss ended any last hopes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. They have clinched the 3 seed. Maybe they get a look at the CBI tournament. Have to beat both Appalachian State and James Madison to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Texas State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals.
Stats (3/15): 3rd Sun Belt, Record 20-12 (13-5), NET 139 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 130 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-4 loss at Dayton). Kind of stayed in the game at Dayton on the road.
Conference (18-9, 11-3 at Arkansas State): Beaten at Arkansas State in game 15 in a bad post seaston bubble loss for them. Won at UL Monroe in game 16. Won at Louisiana in game 17. Beaten at Texas State in game 18 to finish the year at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Guard dominated team with Eugene and Conaway (and others). Not a lot of talent down low. Run a lot, and deep.

Liberty. Falling apart at the end.
Prediction: 4th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. I thought this team was WAY better than their record ended up. Home against 3 seed Western Kentucky in their last game.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% STEAL. Inconsistent team, can get on a roll. Outside chance of winning the tourney. Eliminated by UTEP in the CUSA quarterfinals.
NIT Watch: 0%. Had a great start but NET in the 130s and quarterfinal loss.
Stats (3/15): T 4th CUSA, Record 18-14 (7-9), NET 138 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 136 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Wichita State; 4-0 win neutral Vermont; 7-2 loss home Grand Canyon). Absolutely crushed a pretty below average Wichita State team, but still a good win. Then won a close one with fellow likely tournament team Vermont. Lost by 20+ at Florida Atlantic but that’s a very good team. Then in a real battle against an excellent Grand Canyon at home.
Conference (11-4, 0-0 loss at Western Kentucky; 11-6, 0-2 loss at Louisiana Tech; 15-9, 4-5 win home Louisiana Tech). Really fought back at Western Kentucky in their first CUSA game ever, but lost. Lost game 3 at Louisiana Tech, and it looks like the conference is too tough. Beat Louisian Tech at home on a last second 3 to get back to .500 in conference. Lost at Florida International in game 12 to fall to 5-7. Crushed New Mexico State in game 13, kind of showing they don’t belong at the bottom of the conference. Lost at Middle Tennessee State in game 15. Beat Western Kentucky to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: Nice physical energetic players, but not super athletic. McKay in his 11th season as coach, with a LOT of success.

Hofstra. They have beaten the 2 and 4 seeds in the last 2 weeks. Beaten by the 1 seed last.
Prediction: 4th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Beaten in the CAA semifinals.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. 3 or 4 seed not sure. Hofstra had 4 straight wins by over 10 points, but lost a big opporunity game at Charleston. If Thomas and Dubar shoot the lights out in the tourney they can win it. Eliminated by Stony Brook in the Coastal semifinals.
NIT Watch: 0%. 3rd in the CAA. Lost in the CAA semifinals to a below 150 NET team.
Stats (3/2): T 3rd CAA, Record 19-12 (12-6), NET 112 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 120 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-3 loss at Duke; 7-5 loss at St. John’s). Stayed remotely in the game at Duke, and were closer at St. John’s on the road.
Conference (8-7, 1-1 loss at Northeastern; 9-9, 2-3 WIN at Stony Brook; 12-10, 5-4 win home Towson; 16-11, 9-5 win home Drexel): Lost game 3 at Northeastern. Nice road win at Stony Brook in game 6. Beat Drexel in game 15 at home in a great win for them that ruined Drexel’s 1 seed chances. Then won at UNC Wilmington in game 17 for their 4th straight win and this team looks serious. Lost at Charleston in their last game to finish 12-6.
Players and Coach: Have the 5th highest scoring player in the country in Tyler Thomas, and another scorer in Dubar. But what else? Speedy Claxton is their fairly inexperienced coach.

CBI Tournament (by invite).

Northern Colorado. Lost 3 of 5 to fall into a tie with Montana.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 3rd Big Sky; Invited to the CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 20% Chance. 2 seed as they own the tiebreaker with Montana having beaten them twice. They only have to beat Eastern Washington to get the AUTOBID (well, and the rest of the Big Sky). That’s not impossible. Eliminated by Idaho State in the Big Sky quarterfinals.
Stats (3/4): T 2nd Big Sky, Record 19-12 (12-6), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Weber State in game 16. Beat Northern Arizona on the road to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

No Tournament This Year

Arkansas State.
Prediction: 4th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. Have clinched the 4 seed. Have a couple of good conference wins including UAB and Louisville which should help them in the tourney. Eliminated by James Madison in the Sun Belt Final.
Stats (3/1): 4th Sun Belt, Record 16-15 (11-7), NET 150+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 140 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-6 loss at Alabama; 3-7 WIN at Louisville). Was not competitive with Alabama. I didn’t see a lot to like. But then controlled Louisville in a great game for them.
Conference (13-14, 8-6 home Troy): Upset Troy in game 15 kind of ending their post-season hopes. Won at Coastal Carolina in game 17. Lost at Appalachian State in game 18 to finish at 11-7 in conference.
Players and Coach:

Davidson. Dropping like a stone. Very difficult schedule the rest of the way too.
Prediction: 10th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% OUT. 13 seed. Play 12 seed Fordham in Round 1 of the A10 tournament. 5 straight losses to end the regular season. Eliminated by Fordham in the A10 1st Round.
Stats (3/9): T 13th A10, Record 15-16 (5-13), NET 114 (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 111 (SoS 99), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 WIN neutral Maryland; 2-0 loss neutral Clemson). Davidson played really well against Maryland, and won. They played OK against Clemson, and barely lost. Maryland barely had a chance, like the entire game.
Conference (10-3, 0-0 LOSS home Dayton; 12-7, 2-4 LOSS home VCU; 12-8, 2-5 loss at Loyola Chicago; 13-9, 3-6 LOSS home George Mason; 14-10, 4-7 at St. Bonaventure): Really struggled at home against Dayton in a bad resume game. Then beaten at home by VCU to drop to 2-5 in the A10. Road loss to Loyola Chicago in game 8. Home loss to George Mason in game 10 to drop to 3-7. Beaten at Richmond to fall to 5-9 in conference. Beaten at Dayton in game 15. Beaten at home by Massachusetts in game 16. Beaten at St. Josephs by almost 20 to finish 5-13 in conference.
Players and Coach: They are slow, undersized but very smart. Huffman averaging 14 points and 4 assists maybe their best player. Kind of a typical Davidson team. They are dangerous in any one game because this is a very well organized team. McKillop is their fairly new coach.

Sam Houston. Good CUSA team.
Prediction: 2nd CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 1% Chance. If they win out and are 2nd in CUSA? Far more likely CBI.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 35% Chance. Won huge game at Louisiana Tech 2nd to last game of the year. I think Louisiana Tech gets the AUTOBID, but Sam Houston beat them twice Definitely a contender for the AUTOBID. Eliminated by UTEP in the CUSA semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 1st CUSA, Record 20-11 (13-3), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 144 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 16 Seed.
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (10-9, 3-1 win home New Mexico State; 12-9, 5-1 WIN at Western Kentucky; 15-11, 8-3 at New Mexico State; 18-11, 11-3 at Louisiana Tech): Nice game 5 win home against New Mexico State. Even better road win in game 7 at Western Kentucky. Destroyed New Mexico State on the road in game 12. Beat Middle Tennessee in game 14 at home. Beat Louisiana Tech on the road for the 1 seed in the CUSA tournament in game 15. Beat Jacksonville State at home to finish the conference at 13-3.
Players and Coach. Wilkerson and Barnes, big guards, are their scoring leaders.

Eastern Washington. Best in the Big Sky regular season by far.
Prediction: 1st Big Sky; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA First Four Win.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. 10 losses coming from the Big Sky. No big wins.
Bubble Watch: 0% IN. Clinched the 1 seed. Finished the conference with a 3 game lead. They are the favorite, but will have Northern Colorado, Montana and a cast of others who can beat them. Eliminated by Sacramento State in the Big Sky Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/4): 1st Big Sky, Record 21-10 (15-3), NET 132 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 138 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 15 Seed
Non-Conference (4-6 loss at Washington). I saw a lot to like in the game I watched live.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Northern Arizona in game 14 for their 3rd Big Sky loss. Won at Northern Colorado the 2 seed in game 15. Beat Montana in a separation game at home in game 16. Beat Montana State and Sacramento State to finish the conference at 15-3.
Players and Coach: They may be the class of the Big Sky, but hard to say as I have only seen one other team from that conference.

Louisiana.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 5th Sun Belt; No tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 19% Chance. 5 seed clinching game in their last one with Soutghern Miss. I haven’t seen this team. Eliminated by Arkansas State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 5th Sun Belt, Record 18-13 (10-8), NET 137 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 136 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Troy in a separation game 17. Beat Southern Miss for the 5 seed in game 18 to finish at 10-8.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

UC San Diego. Having a really good year when ineligible.
Prediction: 2nd Big West; No Tournament
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Ineligible for the post-season or the conference tourney.
Stats (3/9): 2nd BW, Record 21-11 (15-5), NET 123 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 126 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-3 loss at Washington). Held their own for about 10 minutes against Washington, then got hammered.
Conference (no games seen): Upset by Cal State Bakersfield on the road in game 17. Beat Cal State Northrdige in game 18 on the road. Beat Cal Poly at home to finish 15-5 in conference.
Players and Coach:

141-150

Tarleton State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 2nd WAC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. Conference Tourney: 2 seed. They will wan to win this tournament as they cannot play in the NCAAs. Eliminated by UT Arlington in the WAC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 2nd WAC, Record 23-8 (16-4), NET 139 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 135 (SoS 146), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Grand Canyon at home in THEIR national championship game in game 15. Beat Utah Tech and Southern Utah on the road in games 17 and 18. Beat Seattle at home to finish the conference at 16-4.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Maryland. On the short end of the stick too much in the Big 10.
Prediction: 13th Big 10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% STEAL. 12 seed. 1st Round against Rutgers. Extremely dangerous low Seed. Eliminated by Wisconsin in the 2nd round of the Big 10 tournament.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: The beat Rutgers in the last chance game, and now play Wisconsin. Win and they have a chance at the NIT. Lose and they have no post-season.
Stats (3/10): T 12th Big 10, Record 15-16 (7-13), NET 72 (2-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 52 (SoS 53), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (11: 1-0 loss neutral Davidson; 1-1 loss neutral UAB; 1-2 loss at Villanova; 4-3 loss at Indiana; 7-4 won at UCLA). Lost to Davidson and then to UAB in their early season tournament and did not look good doing so. Then got destroyed by Villanova. They need help or coaching or something as I believe people think they are better than they are early in the year. Maryland did NOT come ready to play in the game against Davidson and really looked pretty lost against a very organized team. Looked bad against UAB, South Alabama and Nicholls. Blown out in Big 10 game #1 at Indiana on the road. Won at UCLA in a real bubble buster for UCLA.
Conference (11: 10-6, 2-3 WIN at Illinois; 11-7, 3-4 LOSS home Michigan State; 11-7, 3-5 WIN at Iowa; 14-11, 6-8 LOSS home Illinois; 14-13, 6-10 WIN at Rutgers): Led for much of the game, but let Minnesota hang in and then went down easy at the end in game 4. 7 point win over Michigan at home game 5. Excellent wins at Illinois and Iowa in game 6 and 9. Close loss at Northwestern in game 7. Couldn’t hold home court against Michigan State in game 8. Then blew out Nebraska at home in game 10. Beaten again by Michigan State on the road in game 11. Triple OT loss at Ohio State in game 13. Beat Iowa in game 14 to get to 6-8 in conference so they are rallying. Beaten at home by Illiinois in game 15 which doesn’t help. Bubble crushing loss at Wisconsin to fall to 6-10. Nice NIT bubble win at Rutgers in game 17. Bad loss of an opportunity in a loss to Northwestern and Indiana at home in games 18 and 19. Beaten at Penn State to finish the conference at 7-13.
Players and Coach: They have the two bigs – Reese and Scott – who are competitive and experienced. Young is a crazy scorer at guard. But overall their talent is down. Willard is not the coach to bring them back to the top I don’t think.

Arkansas. Talent not there really, but Musselman is coaching them out of the bottom.
Prediction: 12th SEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. 15 losses.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% STEAL. 11 or 12 seed. Dangerous low seed with their coach an late performance. Eliminated by South Carolina in the SEC 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): 12th SEC, Record 15-16 (6-12), NET 115 (2-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 105 (SoS 47), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7: 3-1 win neutral Stanford; 4-1 loss neutral Memphis; 4-2 loss neutral North Carolina; 4-3 WIN home Duke; 6-3 loss at Oklahoma). Won against a very good Stanford team in double OT early. Then lost a close one to a very good Memphis team. then beat Duke at home in a great win. Controlled at an excellent Oklahoma team. Very nice win at home against UNC Wilimington who is not a bad team.
Conference (12: 9-4, 0-0 LOSS home Auburn; 10-7, 1-3 LOSS home South Carolina; 10-9, 1-5 LOSS home Kentucky; 10-10, 1-6 WIN at Missouri; 12-11, 3-7 LOSS home Tennessee; 12-13, 4-9 WIN at Texas A&M): Blown out at home in game 1 by Auburn, which is not a good sign. Beaten at Georgia, Florida and Ole Miss pretty easily in games 2, 3, and 6. Last possession win at home with Texas A&M in game 4. Beaten by South Carolina and Kentucky in games 5 and 7 at home. Road win at Missouri in game 8. Crushed at LSU in game 9. Got their third conference win home against Georgia. Beaten at home in game 11 by Tennessee. Almost upset Mississippi State in game 12 on the road. Then DID upset Texas A&M on the road in game 13. Beat Missouri at home in game 14. If there ever was a bad loss in the SEC it is losing to Vanderbilt at home in game 15. Close road loss at Kentucky in game 16. Nice home win over LSU in game 17. Had the lead and bloew it at Alabama to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach: Super well coached with Musselman, but their talent just does not measure up this year. Huge center in Brazile, Mitchell. Big, good guards including Mark who is their leader.

Stanford. Resume getting beat up in the Pac 12.
Prediction: 10th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% STEAL. 10 or 11 seed. Stanford lost 6 straight before beating Cal in the last game. I thought they were dangerous, but no longer. Eliminated by Washington State in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.
Stats (3/7): 10th Pac 12, Record 13-17 (8-12), NET 110 (1-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 104 (SoS 77), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 loss neutral Arkansas; 3-2 loss neutral Michigan; 5-4 loss at San Diego State). In the game all the way against an excellent Arkansas team, losing in double overtime in a great game. Then lost to Michigan despite having more talent. Controlled by San Diego State.
Conference (9: 5-5, 0-0 LOSS home Arizona State; 6-6, 1-1 WIN at UCLA; 7-7, 2-2 WIN at Oregon State; 10-9, 5-4 WIN at Arizona State; 12-13, 7-8 LOSS home Oregon): Led the whole way home with Arizona State, and lost. Blew out Arizona in a game I did not see in game 2. Good road wins at UCLA and Oregon State in games 3 and 5. Lost at Cal in game 9. Excellent conference road win in game 10 at Arizona State. Beaten at Arizona in game 11. Blow out win over USC at home in game 13. Bad loss at Washington for their NCAA tourney hopes in game 14. Pretty much eliminated from the post season in game 16 home with Oregon loss. Totally eliminated with game 17 loss home against Oregon State. Beaten at Utah and Colorado in games 18 and 19. Beat Cal in game 20 at home to finish 8-12.
Players and Coach: They have Peja Stojakovic’s son, and a solid 7-1 double double forward in Reynauld, and a great assist guard. Carlyle can score at guard. Haas is a fairly experienced coach that has a low profile.

USC. The only team outside the top 4 in the Pac 12 playing well at the end of the year.
Prediction: 11th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Season defining wins at UCLA and home against Arizona! A bunch of wins late as Collier takes over the team. Very likely to get to the quarterfinals based on their late play, but from there they will need 3 upsets. Not likely. Eliminated by Arizona in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: They are out of the tournaments, so just playing spoiler.
Stats (3/9): T 10th Pac 12, Record 14-17 (8-12), NET 99 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 97 (SoS 41), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (5 games seen: 0-0 win neutral Kansas State; 3-1 win neutral Seton Hall; 4-1 loss neutral Oklahoma; 5-2 loss neutral Gonzaga; 5-4 loss at Auburn). Handled very workmanlike and decent Kansas State, beat Seton Hall, then lost to a very workmanlike and decent Oklahoma. Did not come to play against Gonzaga, which is a team you would think you would get up for.
Conference: (10: 8-7, 2-2 LOSS home Washington State; 8-9, 2-4 loss at Arizona; 8-11, 2-6 LOSS home UCLA; 8-12, 2-7 LOSS home Oregon; 10-15, 4-10 LOSS home Colorado; 10-16, 4-11 at UCLA). Controlled at a decent Oregon team to open the conference. Bad bubble busting loss home with Washington State. Losses at Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State in games 6, 7 and 8. Home loss to UCLA in game 9 drops them majorly. Beaten at Stanford in game 13. Got their 4th conference win home against Utah in game 14. Beaten at home in game 15 by Colorado, just barely and in OT. Outstanding SoCal rivalry NCAA hope ending win at UCLA in game 16. Beaten at Washington State in game 17. Upset Washington in game 18 ending their NCAA and maybe NIT hopes in a game I saw live. Beat Arizona State at home in game 19 and they are playing really well. Beat ARIZONA in their last game to finish 8-12 in conference.
Coach and Players: Three good guards in freshman Collier (#1 recruit in the nation) Ellis and Johnson will make them hard to beat. Morgan had TEN blocks against Seton Hall, which is AWESOME. Well coached, lots of talent, big, smart. I don’t think Enfield is the greatest game coach.

UCLA. One quad 1 win is a major tournament resume problem and an NIT problem actually.
Prediction: 5th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. 16 losses.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% OUT. 5 seed. Quarterfinal against Oregon looming. They are gonna make the NIT? Maybe not because Washington and USC have them beat on the NET rating as the 2nd Pac 12 team. Eliminated by Oregon in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: Can they play their way into the NIT? Maybe they are a big name. Beat Oregon State. Next up Oregon in the quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 5th Pac 12, Record 15-16 (10-10), NET 115 (1-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 102 (SoS 58), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (3-0 loss neutral Marquette; 4-1 loss neutral Gonzaga; 5-2 loss at Villanova; 5-3 loss neutral Ohio State; 5-5 loss home Maryland). Played Marquette, Gonzaga and Villanova really well in close losses. Lost a bubble buster against Ohio State on a neutral floor.
Conference (9: 6-7, 1-1 LOSS home Stanford; 8-11, 3-5 WIN at USC; 10-11, 5-5 win home Oregon; 12-11, 7-5 WIN at Cal; 13-11, 8-5 win home Colorado; 14-12, 9-6 LOSS home USC): Close losses in games 2 and 8 at Oregon and Arizona. Lost by 50 at Utah in game 5. Nice conference road win at USC in game 9. Beat Oregon to get to 6-5 in the Pac 12 in game 11. Another win at Cal to get to 8-5 in conference. ANOTHER win home against fellow bubble team Colorado which really helps their resume. Dropped a key home bubble game to Utah in game 15. Dropped a 2nd home bubble game to USC in game 16. Beaten badly at Washington and Washington State in games 17 and 18, ending their NCAA hopes. Beaten badly at home by Arizona in game 19 for their 5th straight loss. Beat Arizona State to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Mick Cronin really rallied this team, but lost them at the end. Bona is a legit big man with a lot of upside. Young talented guards.

Penn State. They are getting close to .500 in conference which is a really good sign.
Prediction: 11th Big 10; No Tournament.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 11 seed. Round 1 against Michigan. Eliminated by Indiana in the Big 10 2nd round.
Stats (3/10): T 9th Big 10, Record 15-16 (9-11), NET 95 (2-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 82 (SoS 40), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7: 4-0 loss neutral Texas A&M; 4-2 loss neutral VCU; 4-3 loss home Bucknell; 5-5 loss neutral Georgia Tech). Stayed in the game with a very good Texas A&M team, and will be in every game I think. Then lost to all three of Butler, VCU, and Bucknell. Tough bubble busting loss to Georgia Tech on a neutral court.
Conference (13: 8-7 2-2 LOSS home Northwestern; 9-10, 3-5 LOSS home Minnesota; 9-11, 3-6 WIN at Rutgers; 10-11, 4-6 WIN at Indiana; 12-12, 6-7 LOSS home Michigan State): Lost to Maryland in game 1. Nice wins in conference games 2, 3 and 6 home with Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Lost at home to Northwestern in game 4 and at Purdue and at Ohio State in games 5 and 7. Beaten at home by Minnesota in game 9. Two road wins at Rutgers and Indiana in games 10 and 11. Home win in game 12 to get to 6-6. Beaten at Northwestern in game 13. Beaten at home in a real bubble killer by Michigan State in game 14. Kind of dominated at Nebraska in game 15. Excellent win home against Illinois in game 16. Beat Indiana at home in game 17 to get to 8-9 in conference. Beaten at Iowa in game 18 and they are under .500 with 2 games to go. Beaten at Minnesota in a bad separation and seeding loss that I watched in full game 19. Beat Maryland at home to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: I really like the coaching change and I think Penn State starts to get better in the Big 10. They have a huge rebounding center and the guard Clary who is very talented, AND a GREAT transfer in Ace Baldwin.

Cal. Lost all 3 of their 3 hard road games to end the season.
Prediction: 9th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12%. Beaten at Colorado and Utah and Stanford. Seeded 5-9 still TBD. They have beaten a bunch of good teams, so it’s possible they go on a tourney run. Arizona though. Eliminated by Stanford in the Pac 12 1st Round.
Stats (3/7): T 7th Pac 12, Record 13-18 (9-11), NET 125 (2-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 121 (SoS 57), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-2 loss neutral UTEP; 2-3 loss neutral Tulane; 3-5 loss at Butler; 3-6 loss neutral Ole Miss). They lost to UTEP and Tulane on a netural floor yikes. Then stayed close at a pretty average Butler, which is a good performance for them. Bad loss on a neutral floor with Ole Miss.
Conference (5-10, 1-3 WIN home Colorado; 7-12, 3-5 win home Stanford; 10-13, 6-6 LOSS home UCLA): Upset Colorado in game 5. Beat Stanford in game 9. Tough conference standings loss at home to UCLA in game 13. Beaten at Colorado and Utah and Stanford in games 18-20 to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Two guards lead them – Cone and Tyson.

Rutgers. I thought Rutgers really would surprise this year, but they have really had a hard time.
Prediction: 12th Big 10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. Even their NIT hopes are looking slim.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% OUT. 13 seed. Play 12 seed Maryland in the 1st Round of the Big 10 tourney. Eliminated by Maryland in the 1st Round of the Big 10 tournament.
Stats (3/10): T 12th Big 10, Record 15-16 (7-13), NET 93 (3-12 Quad 1), Ken Pom 87 (SoS 15), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (2-1 win home Georgetown; 5-1 loss home Illinois; 5-2 loss at Wake Forest; 5-3 win at Seton Hall; 7-3 loss neutral Mississippi State). They are exceptionally well coached and have a set of players this year that will be strong in the Big 10. controlled by Mississippi State, and and trailing the whole way at Wake Forest are NOT good omens. Almost lost to Stonehill at home. But VERY nice win at Seton Hall.
Conference (10: 5-1, 0-0 LOSS home Illinois; 10-8, 2-5 LOSS home Purdue; 10-9, 2-6 LOSS home Penn State; 10-10, 2-7 WIN at Michigan; 12-10, 4-7 win home Wisconsin; 13-10, 5-7 home Northwestern): Losing the whole way at home against Illinois. Close road loss at Ohio State in game 2. Controlled at Iowa, Michigan and Illinois in games 3, 5, and 7. Game 6 home win against Nebraska, barely, in overtime. Beaten at home by an injured Penn State in game 9 and things don’t look good. Road win at Michigan in game 10 to get to 3-7. Beat Wisconsin at home in game 11. Another good win home against Northwestern in game 13. NIT bubble loss in game 14. Beaten at Purdue in game 15. Another NIT bubble loss home against Maryland in game 16. Crushed Michigan at home in game 17. Beaten at Nebraska and Wisconsin in games 18 and 19. Lost to Ohio State at home to finish 7-13 in conference.
Players and Coach: Balanced scoring. Not sure Omoruyi can carry them down low. Supporting cast really not helping them much.

Arizona State. The Pac 12’s mystery team. Had a player walk off the team just now.
Prediction: 8th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% OUT (Feb 28). Home loss to Arizona was their last chance for a statement win.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4%. 11 seed. Can be a spoiler in the tourney, starting with Utah. Eliminated by Utah in the 1st Round of the Pac 12 tournament.
Stats (3/9): T 9th Pac 12, Record 14-17 (8-12), NET 125 (2-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 121 (SoS 29), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5: 2-1 neutral BYU; 2-2 neutral Vanderbilt; 6-2 at San Diego; 6-3 loss neutral TCU; 6-4 neutral Northwestern). They did NOT look good against what I think is an excellent BYU team, but they were destroyed. Then looked better controlling a below average Vanderbilt on a neutral floor. Then lost a close one at San Diego. Blown out by TCU and Northwestern.
Conference (9: 6-5, 0-0 WIN at Stanford; 9-5, 3-0 home win Colorado; 11-9, 5-4 LOSS home Stanford; 11-11, 5-6 loss at Colorado; 11-12, 5-7 WIN at Utah): Came back and won late at Stanford in a nice win for them. Then controlled Utah and Colorado at home to get to 4-0 in the Pac 12. Controlled at Washington in game 5. Beat USC by 15 at home in game 7. Beaten by Stanford at home in game 10. Upset win at Utah in game 13 to get to 6-7 in conference. 30 point loss at Arizona in game 15. Beaten at home by Washington in a real bubble buster game 16. Then beat Washington State in game 17? Weird results for this team. Beaten at home by Arizona in a normal result in game 18. Beaten at USC in game 19 in a real indicator for how their season has gone. Beaten at UCLA to finish the conference at 8-12.
Players and Coach: Frankie Collins is the leader I guess. Bobby Hurley already in his 9th undistinguished year as head coach.

151-160

Notre Dame. Spoiling everyone’s bubbles.
Prediction: 12th ACC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% chance. Round 1 against Georgia Tech. All of sudden you do NOT want to play them. Won 5 of 8 late. Will need 5 wins to get the AUTOBID, mostly upsets. Eliminated by Wake Forest in Round 2 of the ACC Tournament.
Seeding and Bubble: Virtually no immplications, just ending Georgia Tech’s faintest NIT dreams with a win. Ended Georgia Tech’s dreams. Next up for Notre Dame: ending Wake Forest’s dreams. Still no implications for Notre Dame just playing spoiler.
Stats (3/9): 13th ACC, Record 12-19 (7-13), NET 130 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 126 (SoS 50), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 1-2 win neutral Oklahoma State; 3-2 loss at South Carolina; 3-3 loss at Miami; 4-4 loss at Marquette; 4-6 LOSS home The Citadel). Blown out by very good Auburn and Marquette on the road. Then beat Oklahoma State, somehow, despite trailing for much of the game. Played South Carolina fairly close, and lost. They were close with Miami. Lost at home to Georgetown and THE CITADEL. In a real war with MARIST, and barely won. Terrible.
Conference (11: 6-7, 1-1 LOSS home NC State; 6-9, 1-3 WIN at Georgia Tech; 7-9, 2-3 LOSS home Florida State; 7-11, 2-5 LOSS home Miami; 7-12, 2-6 LOSS home Boston College): Absolutely crushed Virginia at home in conference game #2. Lost close ones to NC State, Duke, Florida State, and Miami at home in games 3, 4, 6, and 8. Road win at Georgia Tech in game 5. Lost at and at home to Boston College in games 6 and 9. Lost at Virginia, Pitt and Duke in games 10-12 to drop to 2-10 in conference. Beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home in games 13 and 14 for their 3rd and 4th conference wins. Then got their 5th conference win at Louisville to get to 5-10. Beaten at Syracuse for their 11th loss in game 16. Got another win at home against Wake Forest and they really are not doing too bad in the ACC! Got another win at home against Clemson and they are ruining everyone’s season in game 18. They couldn’t ruin North Carolina’s bubble and lost by 35 in game 19. Beaten at Virginia Tech to finish the conference at 7-13.
Players and Coach: Micah Shrewsbury is a pretty average coach and he is rebuilding. Markus Burton a small scoring guard their best player. Will struggle against any team that has good bigs.

Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech has 4 Quad 1 wins, and have been a major spoiler but that’s it.
Prediction: 13th ACC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% OUT. 13 seed. Round 1 against Notre Dame. They are a very dangerous team in the 1st round of the tourney right now. Eliminated by Notre Dame in the 1st round of the ACC tourney.
Seeding and Bubble: Georgia Tech could theoretically make the NIT with a 4 game run and they do have the possible capability. But this game is otherwise irrelevant for the post-season except to eliminate one team.
Stats (3/9): T 12th ACC, Record 14-17 (7-13), NET 122 (4-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 126 (SoS 20), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 2-2 win home Mississippi State; 4-2 loss at Georgia; 5-3 win neutral Penn State; 6-3 win neutral Massachusetts). Really controlled the game against a very good Mississippi State team. Lost at Georgia badly, but that’s a tough place to play. Good bubble wins against Penn State and Massachusetts and, uh, Hawaii. Lost to Nevada, but that’s also not really a bad loss.
Conference: (15: 3-2, 0-0 WIN home Duke; 8-5, 1-1 LOSS home Boston College; 8-6, 1-2 LOSS home Notre Dame; 8-8, 1-4 WIN at Clemson; 9-10, 2-6 WIN home North Carolina; 10-12, 3-8 LOSS home Wake Forest): Great win at home against Duke in game 1. Controlled at Florida State game 2. Beaten 4 times in games 3, 4, 7, and 8 against Boston College, Notre Dame, Virginia and Pitt at home. In the game the whole way in a loss at Duke in game 5. Great season saving win at Clemson in game 6. Controlled at Virginia Tech in game 7. Excellent upset win home against North Carolina is the exception this season for them, and they BARELY held on. Back to the ordinary losing at NC State in game 11. Beaten in game 12 by Wake Forest at home. Lost at Louisville and Notre Dame in games 13 and 14 to drop to a tie for last in the ACC. Beat Syracuse in game 15 at home. Blown out by Clemson at home in game 16. Won at Miami for their 5th conference win in game 17. Beat Florida State easily in game 18 at home. Played spoiler for Wake Forest in game 19 beating them on the road in a crushing win. Beaten at Virginia to finish the conference at 7-13.
Players and Coach: Miles Kelly is a very talented guard who can win games on his own. George is an excellent true point guard. Ndongo is a talented freshman big. Stoudamire seems to know what he is doing as coach early.

Miami. Have lost 8 straight. No way this is a top 100 NET team.
Prediction: 14th ACC; No Tourney.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. At one point this year I had them as a tourney team.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% OUT. 14 seed. Round 1 with Boston College. Ugly ugly 9 losses in a row. Need 5 upsets. They also are a threat to win a game or two from a low seed with their guards, though Pack is hurt. But getting beat up in the ACC. Eliminated by Boston College in the ACC 1st Round.
Seeding and Bubble: 4 upset wins probably gets them into the NIT, but that is far far down the road. For now they are out of the post-season and can only ruin Boston College’s NIT hopes in Round 1.
Stats (3/9) 14th ACC, Record 15-16 (6-14), NET 99 (2-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 96 (SoS 57), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8: 3-0 win neutral Georgia; 4-0 win neutral Kansas State; 5-0 loss at Kentucky, 7-1 loss neutral Colorado). Totally destroyed an OK Georgia team and dominated a fighting Kansas State team. Absolutely destroyed at Kentucky, which is not a good sign. Lost badly to Colorado too.
Conference (14: 11-3, 2-1 LOSS home Louisville; 11-4, 2-2 WIN at Virginia Tech; 12-4, 3-2 LOSS home Florida State; 12-6, 3-4 WIN at Notre Dame; 15-8, 6-6 LOSS home North Carolina; 15-10, 6-8 at Boston College). Nice controlling win home with Clemson in game 2. Lost at Wake Forest in OT in game 3, and at home against Louisville in game 4, which is a pair of really bad losses. Road wins at Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in games 5 and 8. Home loss to Florida State in game 6. Last possession loss at Syracuse in game 7. Beat Pitt and Virginia Tech at home in games 9 and 11. Dropped game 10 at NC State. Scored 38 points at Virginia and lost in game 11. Beaten by North Carolina at home in game 13. Beaten at Clemson and Boston College in games 14 and 15 to fall to 6-9 with 5 to go. Beaten at Duke in game 16 to fall to 6-10 with 4 games remaining. Really bad loss at home against Georgia Tech in game 17 and their postseason is OVER. Played North Carolina close in game 18 on the road but lost their 7th in a row. Beaten at home by Boston College in a terrible end of season loss and their season is even more over. Beaten at Florida State and finish the conference at 6-14.
Players and Coach: This team has a lot of talent, length and coaching, balance and defense, and should be a threat in every game they play, and especially in the tournament. Possible player of the year candidate in Poplar.

Oklahoma State. Up to 4 conference wins and almost beat Oklahoma for #5.
Prediction: 13th Big 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. Play UCF in Round 1. Kind of surging and may be dangerous in the Big 12 1st round. Eliminated by UCF in Round 1 of the Big 12 Tourney.
Seeding and Bubble: Oklahoma State has no chance at the post-season, but can ruin UCF’s chances with a win in Round 1.
Stats (3/9): T 13th Big 12, Record 12-19 (4-14), NET 121 (2-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 107 (SoS 56), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-1 loss neutral St Bonaventure; 1-2 loss neutral Notre Dame; 3-3 loess home Creighton; 3-4 loss at Southern Illnois; 3-5 win neutral Tulsa). Really struggled and lost to an athletic St. Bonaventure team. Then struggled and lost to a pretty bad Notre Dame team. Not really in the game with Creighton at home. In a real war and a loss on the road at decent mid-major Southern Illinois.
Conference (8-8, 0-3 loss home Kansas; 8-10, 0-5 LOSS home TCU; 9-11, 1-6 loss at Kansas; 10-12, 2-7 loss at Houston; 12-14, 4-9 home Oklahoma): Blown out by 20 at home and on the road against Kansas in games 4 and 8. Beaten at home in game 6 at home against TCU, and in games 8 and 10 at Kansas and Houston. Excellent road win for them at Cincinnati in game 13 for their 4th conference win. Beaten at home on a last second 3 by Oklahoma in a game they could have had. Beaten at home by UCF in game 15. Lost at Texas in game 16. Beaten at BYU to close the conference at 4-14.
Players and Coach: Full of transfers. Good size, but not a lot of major talent for the Big 12. Will rely on defense this year. Small is their leading scorer and assist man.

Montana. Can win it because the Big Sky teams are all so familiar with each other.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 2nd Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 21% OUT. 3 seed. Quarterfinal against Portland State. Definitely a strong contender for the AUTOBID Eliminated by Montana State in the Big Sky final.
Stats (3/4): T 2nd Big Sky, Record 21-10 (12-6), NET 140 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Eastern Washington in a separation game 16. Beat Idaho and Idaho State in games 17 and 18 to finish 12-6 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Michigan. You don’t get anything for having the #1 strength of schedule.
Prediction: 14th Big 10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% OUT. 14 seed. They do have 3 quad 1 wins, so could pull one giant upset. But not FIVE giant upsets. Eliminated by Penn State in the Big 10 1st Round.
Stats (3/10) 14th Big 10, Record 8-23 (3-17), NET 127 (3-13 Quad 1), Ken Pom 124 (SoS 1), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8: 3-1 loss neutral Memphis; 3-2 win neutral Stanford; 4-2 loss neutral Texas Tech; 4-3 loss at Oregon; 6-5 loss home Florida). Failed their first test against Memphis, though the game was close in the end due to coaching. Nice win against Stanford on a neutral floor. Then failed again against Texas Tech and Florida and on the road at Oregon.
Conference (9: 6-7, 1-1 LOSS home Minnesota; 7-10, 2-4 LOSS home Illinois; 7-12, 2-6 LOSS home Iowa; 7-14, 2-8 LOSS home Rutgers; 8-17, 3-11 LOSS home Michigan State). Nice win at Iowa in game 1. BAD loss home in game 3 vs. Minnesota. Lost again in games 4 and 5 at Penn State and Maryland on the road. Beat Ohio State at home in game 6 in a season saving win. But beaten at home by Illinois and Rutgers in games 7 and 11. Beat Wisconsin in a major upset in game 12. Beaten at Nebraska in game 13 to drop to 3-10. Home loss to Michigan State in game 14. Beaten again in games 16-20 to fall to 3-17!
Players and Coach: Dug McDaniel is a legit point guard and will be fine. They have some size but not enough in the Big 10. Howard doesn’t seem to coach his teams up.

Oregon State. Look certain to finish last in the Pac 12.
Prediction: 12th Pac 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Last in the Pac 12.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. 12 seed. Have been a spoiler for Stanford and Utah late. Good news: among the 12 seeds with the best chance to win the tourney, out of 12 seeds, because they are not that far below everyone except Arizona. Eliminated by UCLA in the Pac 12 1st Round.
Stats (3/7): 12th Pac 12, Record 13-17 (5-14), NET 150+ (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 149 (SoS 56), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 loss neutral Baylor; 3-2 loss neutral Pitt). Played OK in a tough matchup against Baylor, but really not in the game. Then taken out by Pitt and lost by more than 20.
Conference (8-5, 0-2 loss at Washington; 9-6, 1-3 loss home Stanford; 9-7, 1-4 loss at Utah): I saw them lose live to Washington in game 3 and they competed but lost. Lost in game 5 to Stanford at home. Beaten at Oregon in game 18. Nice win over Utah in game 19 at home for their 5th conference win.
Players and Coach: Best scorer, a guard, Pope, was managed easily by Baylor and the supporting cast didn’t help him much. No athletic size, which will hurt in the Pac 12.

West Virginia. Have really struggled in the Big 12. 4 home wins only (one over Kansas!)
Prediction: 14th Big 12; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Way under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Play Cincinnati in Round 1. I just don’t see them causing problems in the conference tourney. Will need 5 upsets in 5 days. Eliminated by Cincinnati in the 1st Round of the Big 12 tourney.
Seeding and Bubble: West Virginia has no chance at the post season, but can ruin Cincinnati’s chances with a win in Round 1.
Stats (3/9): T 13th Big 12, Record 9-22 (4-14), NET 148 (2-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 136 (SoS 10), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (2-2 loss neutral Virginia; 3-3 loss home St. John’s; 3-4 loss home Pitt; 4-5 loss neutral Massachusetts; 5-7 loss neutral Ohio State). Really hung in the game with Virginia, but I think they were playing above their heads. Lost close ones to St. John’s, Massachusetts, and Ohio State, and a not close one to Pitt. I didn’t see a lot of talent in the game.
Conference (8-16, 3-8 LOSS home Baylor; 8-17, 3-9 win home UCF): Beaten at home in game 12 by Baylor to fall to 3-9. Nice bottom of the conference win home against UCF in game 13. Beaten at Iowa State in game 14. Beaten in OT at Kansas State in game 15. Beaten at home by Texas Tech in game 16. Beaten at Cincinnati to finish 4-14 in conference.
Players and Coach: Slazinski (sp?) is a scorer who needs help. Krusa is another good player. They got two players back starting with their game with Massachusetts, and the announcers were saying it’s a far better team, but they lost.

Winthrop. Will contend for the Big South AUTOBID, barely.
Prediction: 3rd Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Can’t get there from 19-14 in the Big South.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 17% STEAL. Clinched the 4 seed. Could steal the AUTOBID, but they have to beat both High Point and UNC Ashville. Eliminated by Longwood in the Big South quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 4th Big South, Record 17-14 (8-8), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8-3 loss at Xavier). In the game at Xavier, but lost by more than ten.
Conference (13-6, 4-0 loss home UNC Asheville; 15-11, 6-5 WIN at Radford): Battle for conference supremacy in game 5 home with UNC Asheville and they lost in a real close one. Conference road win at Radford in game 12. Beaten at home by 23 in game 13 by Presbyterian at home. Beaten at High Point in a close one in game 15. Beaten at home by Gardner Webb to finish the conference at 8-8.
Players and Coach: Talford is their best player. I don’t think they would win a game in the post season if they got there. This is an OK Big South team, and I think they live up to tradition and finish high in the conference. Mark Prosser is their fairly young coach.

160-169

Murray State. Getting some wins in conference.
Prediction: 7th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 8 seed. First round against Missouri State in a very even game. And then would need 3 upsets in the tourney, including the 1 seed on day 2. Eliminated by Missouri State in the 1st Round of the MVC Tourney.
Stats (3/3): T 7th MVC, Record 12-19 (9-11), NET 150+ (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 142 (SoS 106), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-8 LOSS home SMU). Dominated by SMU at home.
Conference (8-10, 5-2 LOSS home Indiana State; 8-11, 5-3 loss at Bradley; 8-14, 5-6 WIN at Northern Iowa): Controlled at home by Indiana State in game 8. Beaten at Bradley in game 9. Absolutely crushed Northern Iowa on the road in game 12. Lost at home to Belmont in game 19. Lost at Indiana State to finish the conference at 9-11.
Players and Coach: Perry, an inconsistent scoring guard, is their best player.

Missouri State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% OUT. 9 seed and will have to play the 8 Murray State, and then the 1. I haven’t seen this team. Beat Missouri State in the 1st Round. Eliminated by Indiana State in the MVC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/3): 9th MVC, Record 16-15 (8-12), NET 150+ (1-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 119), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Belmont in game 18. Beaten at Illinois State in game 19. Beat UIC at home to finish the conference at 8-12.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

California Baptist. On a 6 game losing streak.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 8 seed. Play 5 seed Utah Valley in the 1st round of the WAC. Eliminated by Seattle U in the WAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 8th WAC, Record 15-16 (8-12), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Stephen F. Austin in game 17. Beaten at home by Grand Canyon to finish at 8-12 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Towson. Starting to stack up some wins in the CAA.
First Look Prediction: 5th Coastal; No Tournament
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 25%. 5 seed. Lost to Charleston and UNC Wilmington late. Definitely a bid steal threat in the even CAA. Eliminated by Charleston in the Coastal semifinals.
Stats (3/2): 5th CAA, Record 18-13 (11-7), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-1 loss neutral Houston; 2-2 loss neutral Wake Forest). Dominated by Houston so hard to evaluate that game. Very competitive with a pretty bad Wake Forest team.
Conference (12-8, 4-3 WIN at Delaware; 14-8, 7-2 loss at Hofstra; 14-10, 7-4 win home Elon; 17-11, 10-5 loss home Charleston; 18-12, 11-6 at UNC Wilmington): Really nice conference win vs. Delaware on the road. Beaten at Hofstra in game 10. Road win at Elon in game 12. Beat Monmouth at home in game 15. Beaten by almost 25 by Charleston at home in game 16. Won by 25 at North Carolina A&T in game 17. Beaten at UNC Wilmington to finish 11-7.
Players and Coach: Not a lot of size, but may do ok in their conference. Thompson their best player rebounds and scores.

UNC Asheville. 2nd best team in the Big South. Need an upset in the tourney.
Prediction: 2nd Big South; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. NET 150+
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 35% OUT. 2 seed. Quarterfinal against 7 seed Charleston Southern. Two bad losses right at the end of the conferrence season. Will need to beat High Point to get the AUTOBID. Gardner Webb also just beat them. Eliminated by Longwood in the Big South Final.
Stats (3/2): 2nd Big South, Record 20-11 (12-4), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Michigan). They looked pretty competitive vs. Michigan, though they got beat by a lot. Tough early matchup for them.
Conference (11-8, 3-1 WIN at Winthrop): Battle for conference supremacy at Winthrop in game 5, and came away with the win. Dropped their 3rd conference game at Longwood in game 14. Then dropped their 4th conference game at home in game 15, their second to last, to Gardner-Webb. Won at Radford to finish the conference season at 12-4.
Players and Coach: Pember, a lanky scoring big who also was the defensive player of the year is the Big South preseason player of the year. He was absolutely dominant in the game at Winthrop and looked like an NBA player.

Wyoming. Back down below .500 in conference. Extremely likely 89 seed.
Prediction: 8th MWC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 1% Chance. If they won out and got to the final?
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. Wyoming has at Colorado State, home against Air Force, and at Fresno State. If they beat Fresno State they basically own the 8 seed. Conference Tourney: The MWC is nasty, otherwise I’d give them more of a chance in the conference tourney. 8 seed plays the 9 (Fresno State, most likely), then the #1 seed which may be good for the underdog in the quarters? Eliminated by Fresno State in the 1st Round of the MWC tourney.
Stats (2/27): 8th MWC, Record 13-15 (6-9), NET 150+ (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 78), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 loss neutral St. Louis; 2-1 win neutral Charleston; 3-1 win neutral Furman). Looked a bit overmatched against St. Louis, then played terribly but won against Charleston and Furman.
Conference (8-6, 0-0 loss at New Mexico; 10-8, 3-2 loss at San Diego State; 12-9, 5-3 loss at UNLV; 12-11, 5-5 LOSS home Utah State; 13-12, 6-6 loss at Nevada). Controlled at New Mexico in their conference opener. Same result in game 6 at San Diego State. Controlled in game 9 at UNLV in a tough conference standings loss. Beaten at home by Utah State to drop below .500 with 7 games to go. Beaten at Nevada and now 2 games out of 7th. Beaten at home by UNLV in game 15.
Players and Coach: Griffin is their scoring leader at guard with almost 19 a game. Wyoming has a bunch of new players.

East Carolina. At 7-8 in conference they are not playing to their potential.
Prediction: 8th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Got the 8 seed and play the 9 seed Tulsa on day 2 of the American tourney. Felton makes them a threat in any game, but it would require a couple of upsets. Eliminated by South Florida in the American quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 8th American, Record 14-17 (7-11), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 138), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-3 LOSS home South Carolina; 6-4 loss at Florida, 7-6, 0-0 loss at Florida Atlantic). Lost at home to a likely tournament team in South Carolina. Played Florida and Florida Atlantic tough too.
Conference (7-7, 0-1 win home Tulsa; 10-10, 3-4 win home Temple; 11-11, 4-5 loss at Charlotte; 11-12, 5-6 WIN at UTSA; 14-12, 7-6 at Rice): Nice win in game 2 home against Tulsa. Got back to .500 in conference in game 8 win at home against Temple. Beaten at Charlotte in game 10. Road win at UTSA in game 12. Beaten at Rice in game 14. Crushed at home by Memphis in game 15. Beaten by Charlotte to fall to 7-11 as their final conference record.
Players and Coach: Kind of an undersized team in the American. Felton, a huge powerful guard, is their best player who scores and rebounds. Ausar a decent forward. Schwartz is an unproven 2nd year head coach.

Fairfield. Almost no quality wins. Marist and Yale and Quinnipiac.
Prediction: 2nd MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. NET 150+.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 18% Chance. 2 seed. Eliminated by Saint Peter’s in the final of the MAAC tourney.
Stats (3/9): 2nd MAAC, Record 20-11 (14-6), NET 150+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (16-10, 10-5 at Quinnipiac): Beat Quinnipiac on the road in game 16 for at outstanding win. Beaten at Marist in game 18. Beat Canisius by 20 in game 19 at home. Beat Mt. St. Mary’s to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: Play uptempo.

Weber State. Could get the AUTOBID from the Big Sky.
Prediction: 4th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 20% STEAL. Dropped to the 4 seed with the loss at Montana State on the road. Play 5 seed Montana State in the first round. A dangerous team with Jones, but the Big Sky has figured out how to beat them. Eliminated by Montana State in the Big Sky quarterfinals.
Stats (3/4): 4th Big Sky, Record 20-11 (11-7), NET 144 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 148 (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (10-4 win at Oral Roberts). Wore down Oral Roberts in a nice win.
Conference (20-10, 11-6 loss at Montana State): Beaten at Idaho State in a terrible loss for them in game 15. Beat Northern Colorado in game 16 to recover at home. Upset by Montana State on the road in a bad seeding loss in game 18 to finish the season at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Not the most athletic team. Jones, a forward, is a double double machine who may make the NBA.

Furman. Close with the top teams, so could sneak in by winning the conference tournament.
Prediction: 5th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. They have run out of games and have too many losses.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% STEAL. 5 seed. Quarterfinal against Western Carolina. Typical mid pack odds of winning the tourney. Eliminated by Samford in the Southern semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Southern, Record 16-15 (10-8), NET 147 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 145 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 loss neutral Wyoming). Not really in the game against Wyoming, who isn’t that good.
Conference (12-10, 6-3 LOSS home UNC Greensboro; 12-12, 6-5 WIN at ETSU; 14-12, 8-5 home Chattanooga): Beaten at home by UNC Greensboro in game 10 on the last possession. Good road win at ETSU in game 12. Took out a good Chattanooga in game 14 at home. Beaten at Western Carolina in game 15. Beaten at home by Mercer in game 18 to finish the season at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Foster is a forward in the Southern with a lot of points and rebounds. Pegues is a very good scoring and all-around guard. Ritchie is a very solid coach.

Louisville. Very bottom of the ACC.
Prediction: 15th ACC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Obviously.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% STEAL. Clinched the 15 seed. Play 10 seed NC State in the tourney. Have to beat way too many outstanding teams to win the conference tourney. Eliminated by NC State in Round 1 of the ACC tourney.
Seeding and Bubble: Louisville has no chance at the post-season, but can ruin NC State’s dreams with a win in Round 1.
Stats (3/5): 15th ACC, Record 8-22 (3-16), NET 200+ (0-10 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 65), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7: 2-1 loss neutral Texas; 2-2 loss neutral Indiana; 4-3 loss at Virginia Tech; 4-4 loss at DePaul; 4-5 loss home Arkansas State). Played a very close warlike game with a highly ranked Texas team, but I think they were really overperforming in that one. Then they lost to very middling Indiana and Virginia Tech teams, a bad DePaul team, and Arkansas State. Destroyed by Kentucky.
Conference (12: 5-8, 0-2 LOSS home Pitt; 5-9, 0-3 WIN at Miami; 6-9, 1-4 LOSS home NC State; 6-12, 1-6 LOSS home Duke; 6-13, 1-7 LOSS home Virginia): Controlled at Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest in games 2, 6, and 7. Beaten at home by Pitt, NC State, Duke, and Virginia in games 3, 5, 8, and 9. Excellent isolated road win at Miami in game 4. More losses on the road at Clemson and Syracuse in games 10 and 12. Home upset over Florida State in game 11. Lost at Syracuse, Boston College, and Pitt in games 12, 14 and 15. Beat Georgia Tech at home in game 13 for their 3rd conference win. Beaten by Notre Dame at home in game 16 in a seeding loss (13 v 15!). Lost at Duke in game 17. Beaten at home by Syracuse and Virginia Tech in games 18 and 19.
Players and Coach: Johnson, a freshman guard, is starting to become the leader of this team. White is a really excellent guard. Skyy Clark is averaging 15 for them. Really don’t see a lot to like for a major conference team here.

Delaware. Mid-table Coastal team. A little dangerous for the top teams.
Prediction: 6th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12%. 6 seed. Hammered by Stony Brook in their last game. If they get hot, then maybe, but hard to see them winning the CAA. Eliminated by Hofstra in the Coastal quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 6th CAA, Record 18-13 (10-8), NET 150+ (1-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-3 WIN at Xavier). Great early win at Xavier, but I think that says more about Xavier than it does about them.
Conference (10-6, 2-1 loss at UNC Wilmington; 12-8, 4-3 LOSS home Towson; 12-9, 4-4 WIN at William & Mary; 17-11, 9-6 home Drexel): Lost a close game at UNC Wilmington in game 4. Drop to .500 in conference with a home loss to Towson. Beat William & Mary in game 9 on the road. Beaten at home by Charleston and Drexel in games 15 and 16. Beat Northeastern at home in game 17. Delaware lost at Stony Brook by 23 to finish at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Davis is their leader, a good sized forward. Still, this is obviously a team that can contend in the Coastal.

Wofford.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. 6 seed. Play the 3 seed Chattanooga on the 2nd day of the Southern tourney. Just beat the 1 seed Samford. Eliminated by Chattanooga in the Southern quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Southern, Record 17-14 (10-8), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 134), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat 1 seed Samford at home in game 17. Beat VMI on the road to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Utah Valley. Won 7 of 8 to get to the 5 seed from nowhere.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 5 seed. Play 8 seed Cal Baptist in round 1 of the WAC tourney. Eliminated by Cal Baptist in the WAC 1st round.
Stats (3/9): T 4th WAC, Record 16-15 (11-9), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 127), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Abilene Christian on the road to finish the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Tulane. Have only 5 wins in the American.
Prediction: 9th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. 10 seed. Play 7 seed North Teas on day 2 of the American tourney. Fell into the 10-14 seed hell, but got the 10 seed and the 1st round bye somehow. 6 straight losses crushed them. Too small to win the conference tourney. Eliminated by North Texas in the American quarterfinals.
Stats (3/8): T 12th American, Record 14-16 (5-13), NET 138 (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 133 (SoS 105), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-0 loss neutral Bradley; 3-1 win neutral Cal; 6-1 loss neutral Mississippi State). Lost to Bradley but stayed in the game. Then beat Cal, which is not a great win, but still it’s a win. Absolutely blown out by Mississippi State.
Conference (8: 10-3, 1-0 loss at North Texas; 10-4, 1-1 LOSS home Florida Atlantic; 11-6, 2-3 win home Memphis; 12-7, 3-4 LOSS home Charlotte; 13-12, 4-9 LOSS home UAB): Dominated game 1 with Rice. Controlled in road loss at North Texas in game 2. Almost beat Florida Atlantic by scoring 10 straight at the end in game 3, but lost. Upset conference leader Memphis at home in game 6. Beaten at home by Charlotte in game 8. Beaten at SMU in game 9. Beat Temple in game 10 at home. Beaten in game 14 at home by UAB to fall to 4-10 in conference. Beaten at home by North Texas in game 15. Beaten at Florida Atlantic in game 16. Beat Wichita State at home to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Kevin Cross, a forward, averaging almost 20 points early. Experienced team with transfers, but lacking in top talent. Nice record to begin the year. Hunter, their coach, seems capable.

Fordham. Fordham is a very nondescript team.
Prediction: 12th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5%. 12 seed. Play 13 seed Davidson in Round 1 of the A10 tourney. Can they string wins in the conference tourney? I think not. Eliminated by VCU in Round 2 of the A10 tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 10th A10, Record 12-19 (6-12), NET 150+ (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 127), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-5 loss neutral St. John’s). Controlled by St. John’s on a neutral floor. Didn’t show a lot.
Conference (7-7, 0-1 loss home LaSalle; 7-8, 1-1 win at St. Bonavernture; 9-10, 3-3 loss at Duquesne; 9-12, 3-5 WIN at Saint Louis; 10-14, 4-7 loss at Dayton): Tough home loss in game 2 with LaSalle. Nice road win at St. Bonaventure in game 3. Lost at Duquesne in game 7. Win at Saint Louis in game 9. Beaten at Dayton in game 12. Beat Duquesne and George Mason in games 14 and 15 at home, both nice wins. Beaten at St. Joseph’s in game 16. Beaten at home by Rhode Island to end the season at 6-12.
Players and Coach: Jenkins is their leader. Urgo was A10 coach of the year in year 1. This is his year 2.

Stephen F. Austin.
Prediction: 5th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 17% STEAL. 6 or 7 seed. Play Abilene Christian in the 6/7 1st Round WAC game. Eliminated by UT Arlington in the WAC 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): T 6th WAC, Record 17-14 (10-10), NET 150+ (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (15-13, 8-9 at Grand Canyon): Won at California Baptist in a seeding win game 17. Crushed at Grand Canyon in game 18. Beat Utah Tech at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Coached by Keller in his 8th season.

Evansville. Likely first round conference tourney exit, but some upset potential too. Wildcard.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 10 seed, first game against 7 seed Illinois State. They have a few good wins, but 14 losses in conference. Will need 4 upsets to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Drake in the MVC Semifinals.
Stats (3/3): 10th MVC, Record 15-16 (6-14), NET 200+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 123), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Indiana State in game 19. Beaten at Belmont in game 20 to finish 6-14.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

St. Thomas.
Prediction: 2nd Summit; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. Conference Tournament: 4 seed. Play the 5 seed North Dakota State in the Summit quarterfinals. Eliminated by South Dakota State in the Summit semifinals.
Stats (3/2): 4th Summit, Record 19-12 (9-7), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 144 (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-4 loss at Marquette). Not blown out at Marquette and came back to be in it at the end which is a VERY good sign.
Conference (8-5, 0-0 at North Dakota): Then in their first game in conference absolutely destroyed North Dakota. Beat Omaha in game 15 at home. Beat Denver by 25 in their last game to finish 9-7.
Players and Coach: Very undersized. Dobbs is their best player. Guards look athletic.

Illinois State. Experienced team that should win some games and surprise at times in the MVC.
Prediction: 10th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 7 seed. Play Evansville in round 1, then Drake if they win that. Experienced. Upset at Valparaiso so the vibes may be off. They beat Indiana State on the road by 13 in their game of the year. Eliminated by Evansville in the 1st Round of the MVC Tournament.
Stats (3/3): 7th MVC, Record 15-16 (9-11), NET 150+ (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 130), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8-4 at Kentucky). Beaten by 20 at Kentucky, but there is no shame in that.
Conference (8-5, 2-0 at Drake): Beaten by 20 at Drake, maybe a bit more shame in that. Beat Missouri State at home just barely in game 19. Beaten at last place Valparaiso on the road to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach:

UC Davis.
Prediction: 3rd Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 25% Chance. 2 seed. Definitely a contender. Eliminated by Long Beach State in the final of the Big West tourney.
Stats (3/9): 3rd BW, Record 19-12 (14-6), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (5-6 home UC Santa Barbara; 12-8, 7-2 WIN at UC Santa Barbara): Controlled UC Santa Barbara at home, but the game was close. Proving their merits in the Big West with a game 10 win at UC Santa Barbara to get to 8-2 in conference. Beat Hawaii in a separation game 18 at home. Won at Long Beach State to finish 14-6 in conference.
Players and Coach: Pepper is a serious scorer for this team, and by himself should put themin the top half of the Big West. Johnson is another guard that can score.

180-189

UTEP. I initially thought they were a lot better than their record indicates.
Prediction: 5th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% OUT. 5 seed. Play 4 seed Liberty in the CUSA quarterfinals. Could maybe pull a set of upsets, not that far from the top teams. Eliminated by Western Kentucky in the CUSA final.
Stats (3/9): T 4th CUSA, Record 16-15 (7-9), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 home UC Santa Barbara; 4-0 neutral Cal; 5-0 neutral Bradley): Controlled the game with UC Santa Barbara. Then led the whole way against an injured Cal. Then lost in a close one to Bradley on a neutral floor.
Conference (8-6, 0-0 loss at New Mexico State; 9-8, 1-2 win home Middle Tennessee; 13-11, 4-5 loss at Western Kentucky): Struggled in a conference opening loss at New Mexico State, but that is a tough place to play and it’s a rivalry game. Controlled Middle Tennessee in game 4. Beaten at Western Kentucky in game 10. Won at Jacksonville State in game 14. Won home against Florida International to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: Camper, a juco transfer, is an excellent lead player for them. Golding is their coach.

Bowling Green. Decent MAC team.
Prediction: 4th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 14% Chance. Nice win over Toledo. Definitely have a chance in the MAC tourney. Eliminated by Kent State in the MAC semifinals.
Stats (3/8): 5th MAC, Record 19-12 (10-8), NET 200+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (10-3, 1-0 at Akron; 16-10, 7-6 win home Toledo) Played Akron close for most of the game in a game 2 loss. Beaten at Central Michigan in game 13 for their 6th conference loss. Beat Toledo in a game that really hurt them in game 14 to get to 8-6. Then lost to Miami (OH) at home in game 15. Lost at Ohio in a separation game 16. Beat Ball State at home to finish the conference 10-8.
Players and Coach: Agee, a power forward, is probably their best player. They have a really nice calm point guard in Hill who does not get flustered. Simon is their new 1st year coach.

Green Bay. Really nice season for them.
Prediction: 3rd Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 19% Chance. 3 seed is an overachievement for them. Will play the highest seed remaining from the first round. Eliminated by Milwaukee in the Horizon quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 3rd Horizon, Record 18-13 (13-7), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (18-12, 13-6 at Milwaukee): Beaten home against Purdue Fort Wayne in game 17 in a bad loss for them. Won at Cleveland State in game 19. Beaten at Milwaukee in game 20 to finish the conference season at 13-7.
Players and Coach: Wicks is their new head coach and has led them well in his first season.

Wright State. Will compete in the Horizon.
Prediction: 4th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 11% Chance. Managed to get to the 4 seed and a matchup with 5 seed Northern Kentucky in the first round. I don’t see them making a run. Eliminated by Northern Kentucky in the Horizon quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 3rd Horizon, Record 18-13 (13-7), NET 147 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 loss at Indiana): Not competitive with Indiana.
Conference (6-8, 1-2 win home Cleveland State; 9-8, 4-2 loss at Youngstown State; 12-10, 7-4 home Youngstown State). Very nice controlling win home with Cleveland State. Beaten at Youngstown State in game 7. Won at Detroit Mercy in game 17. Beaten at home by Purdue Fort Wayne in game 19. Won at home against Northern Kentucky to finish the conference at 13-7.
Players and Coach: Wright State has three good players in Tanner, Holden and Calvin. They don’t have a lot else.

Kent State. Dealing with lots of injuries on the front line, but still a good team.
Prediction: 5th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. Qualified for the MAC tourney as the 8 seed. 1st Round against 1 seed Toledo a tough matchup. Maybe good enough to beat Akron and Toledo in upsets in the conference tournament, but it sure doesn’t look like it. Need to beat Ball State to stay in the MAC tournament. Eliminated by Akron in the MAC final.
Stats (3/8): 8th MAC, Record 15-16 (8-10), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (8-6, 1-1 LOSS home Toledo; 9-8, 2-3 LOSS home Akron; 10-9, 3-4 LOSS home Ohio; 10-11, 3-6 WIN at Buffalo; 13-13, 6-7 loss at Akron): Beaten easily by Toledo and Akron at home in games 3 and 6. Then beaten by Ohio at home in game 8. That’s THREE home losses. Did win at Buffalo but so what? Beaten at Ohio in game 13. Beaten at Akron in game 14 to fall to 6-8. Beat Buffalo in game 15 at home. Beaten at Toledo to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: Sullinger who averages 16, and Payton a nice big, lead this injury ravaged team. Freeman does provide some energy for the team. This team has the optics of a better record team, and could surprise in the conference tourney.

Hawaii. Fairly athletic team, could surprise in the Big West tourney.
Prediction: 5th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Rallied for the 3 seed! I think maybe they pull some upsets and sneak the AUTOBID. Eliminated by UC Davis in the Big West semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 4th BW, Record 19-13 (11-9), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-2 win home Portland; 8-2 loss home Georgia Tech; 8-3 home TCU). Controlled the game with Portland at home. Very close loss to Georgia Tech. Controlled by TCU.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at UC Davis in game 17. Beat Cal State Bakersfield to finish 11-9 in conference.
Players and Coach: Athletic.

Loyola Marymount. Lower division WCC team, but no shame in that.
Prediction: 5th WCC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. They lost 7 in a row at one point. At Portland in their last game. Will be the 5-7 seed. Too many injuries. Not looking good with their depleted roster. Eliminated by Portland in the 2nd Round of the WCC Tourney.
Stats (2/29): 6th WCC, Record 12-17 (5-10), NET 150+ (0-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (8-9, 1-2 loss at San Francisco; 10-10, 3-3 loss at Saint Mary’s; 10-11, 3-4 loss at Gonzaga; 10-14, 3-7 LOSS home Gonzaga, 10-16, 3-8 loss at Santa Clara): Kind of in the game at San Francisco and Saint Mary’s. But couldn’t get either win. Blown out at Gonzaga and at home against Gonzaga in games 8 and 11. Beaten at Santa Clara in game 13. Nice win over San Diego in game 15.
Players and Coach. Dealing with some serious injuries.

Vanderbilt. They lost a lot of games in the SEC.
Prediction: 13th SEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2%. 13 seed. Home againsrt Florida in their last game. Beat Missouri and Texas A&M and Arkansas for 3 conference wins. Have nearly sewn up the 13 seed! Eliminated byh Arkansas in the 1st Round of the SEC tournament.
Stats (3/6): 13th SEC, Record 8-22 (3-14), NET 200+ (0-12 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 27), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6: 3-1 loss neutral North Carolina State; 3-2 loss neutral Arizona State; 3-3 loss home Boston College; 4-6 loss home Western Carolina). Lost all three games I saw early in the year, badly. Then lost to a decent Western Carolina team at home.
Conference (6: 5-8, 0-0 LOSS home Alabama; 5-11, 0-3 LOSS home Auburn; 5-13, 0-5 LOSS home Tennessee; 6-15, 1-7 LOSS home Kentucky): Conference opening losses home with Alabama and Auburn in games 1 and 4. Games 2, 3, 5 and 7 losses at LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Auburn on the road. Beaten at home by Tennessee and Kentucky in games 6 and 9. First conference win at home against Missouri in game 8. Lost at South Carolina in game 10 to fall to 1-9. Home WIN against Texas A&M on a buzzer beater in game 11! Beaten at Tennessee in game 12. Beaten at home by Georgia in game 13 to fall to 2-11. Another loss at Florida in game 14. ROAD WIN! At Arkansas in game 15. Beaten home against LSU in game 16. Beaten at Kentucky in game 17.
Players and Coach: Too small and undertalented for the league. Lawrence is their best player, but they need more than that. Manjon, a speedy guard, was injured in the conference opener. Rivera-Torres, a forward, can score. Vescovi has played in a LOT of losses over many years.

Missouri. I have them way below NET and KenPOM because they have 2 good wins all year.
Prediction: 14th SEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Obviously. They have a serious risk of going 0-18 in conference with their remaining schedule.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: Clinched the 14 seed. They will have a hard time getting one win in the SEC tournament. Eliminated by Georgia in the SEC 1st Round.
Stats (3/5): 14th SEC, Record 8-22 (0-17), NET 150+ (1-10 Quad 1), Ken Pom 149 (SoS 36), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6: 1-0 LOSS home Memphis; 5-2 WIN at Pitt; 7-2 loss at Kansas; 7-3 loss neutral Seton Hall; 7-4 loss neutral Illinois). Totally outplayed by a pretty good, could be very good Memphis team. Won at Pitt in a very nice win. Then beat Wichita State at home in a game they should have won more easily, but won going away. Very nice performance in a loss at Kansas. Then lost a bubble buster with Seton Hall, and were blown out by Illinois.
Conference (12: 8-5, 0-0 LOSS home Georgia; 8-7, 0-2 LOSS home South Carolina; 8-9, 0-4 LOSS home Florida; 8-12, 0-7 LOSS home Arkansas; 8-13, 0-8 loss at Vanderbilt; 8-19, 0-14 at Florida): Bad conference opening loss at home against Georgia. Game 2 expected loss at Kentucky. Bad game 3 and 5 losses at home to South Carolina and Florida. Games 4, 6, and 8 losses at Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina. Another loss at home to Arkansas in game 8, and on the road at Vanderbilt in game 9, and it is getting ugly. Drop to 0-11 in the SEC home against Texas A&M and Mississippi State. More road losses at Ole Miss and Florida in games 12 and 15. Beaten at home by Tennessee and Arkansas in games 13 and 14. Almost beat Ole Miss at home in game 16. Beaten easily by Auburn in game 17.
Players and Coach: Talent doesn’t measure up in the SEC. Great point guard in Honor. East, another guard, is very solid and a great knowledgable player. Some size, including giant Vanover.

Milwaukee. Will be conference tournament dangerous for sure, good upset pick.
Prediction: 5th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 14% chance. 6 seed First game with Detroit Mercy a win, then the 3 seed. Dangerous low-seeded team in the Horizon. Eliminated by Oakland in the Horizon final.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Horizon, Record 17-14 (12-8), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Providence). Played Providence very well in a loss on the road.
Conference (16-14, 11-8 home Green Bay): Beaten at home by Youngstown State in game 17. Won at IUPUI in game 19. Controlled Green Bay at home in game 20 to finish 12-8 in conference.
Players and Coach: Competitive with enough size and speed to win on any given day. BJ Freeman is a serious player who had 31 against Providence.

190-199

UIC.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 11th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. Clinched the 11 seed. First round against Southern Illinois which is not the worst draw. Eliminated by Bradley in the MVC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/3): 11th MVC, Record 11-20 (4-16), NET 150+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 115), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Almost beat Drake at home in game 19. Beaten at Missouri State to finishe 4-16 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Monmouth. Middle of the road Coastal team.
Prediction: 7th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 8 seed. First game in the 2nd round against 9 seed Campbell. If they get hot maybe they could win the tournament. Eliminated by Charleston in the Coastal quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 6th CAA, Record 17-14 (10-8), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-4 loss at Seton Hall). In the game with Seton Hall, which is a bit better than what Northeastern did.
Conference (8-6, 1-0 win home Northeastern; 9-8, 2-2 at Drexel): Absolutely crushed Northeastern at home in game 2. Played Drexel really close on the road in game 5, and lost. Lost at Towson in game 15. Upset at Hampton in game 17. Won at Elon to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Coach’s son Rice is their scorer, averaging 20 points early. He’s a pretty great scorer, especially in conference.

Tulsa. Won 4 of their last 6 to move up from the bottom.
Prediction: 10th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. Got out of the 10-14 morass on the last day to get the Round 1 bye, and a game against 8 seed East Carolina in the 8/9 game. 2 nice wins to end the season including 1 seed South Florida. Hagerty can only take thgem so far. Eliminated by East Carolina in the American 2nd round.
Stats (3/9): T 8th American, Record 16-14 (7-11), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), KP 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-2 loss neutral Oklahoma State). Not really in the game at Oklahoma State, at all, which is NOT a good sign.
Conference (9-4, 0-1 loss at East Carolina; 10-8, 1-5 WIN at Rice; 11-8, 2-5 win home Wichita State; 12-11, 3-8 loss at South Florida; 13-12, 4-9 at Wichita State): Lost game 2 at East Carolina in a very close game. Pulled out a win at Rice in game 7. Comeback win with Wichita State at home in game 8. Beaten at South Florida in game 12. Crushed at Wichita State in game 14. Upset Charlotte in game 15 at home to get to 5-10. Lost at last place UTSA in game 16. Beat 1 seed South Florida in their final game to get to 7-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Freshman guard Hagerty is their high scorer. Garcia another really good player.

Gardner Webb. Put almost no effort in the one game I saw. Fading.
Prediction: 4th Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 22% Chance. 3 Seed after High Point and UNC Asheville, and Winthrop the 4 seed can’t catch them. Will be favored in game 1, then have to beat the top 2. Eliminated by UNC Asheville in the Big South semifinals.
Stats (3/2): 3rd Big South, Record 16-15 (11-5), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 130), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (13-14, 8-4 LOSS home Radford; 14-15, 9-5 home Longwood): Pretty bad conference loss in game 13 home at Radford on the road. Beat Longwood in game 15 at home when the ref bailed them out on the last possession. Beat Winthrop on the road to finish 11-5 in conference in a nice last game.
Players and Coach: Nicholas is their leader, a 3 point and defensive specialist.

Rice. They started the year with high expectations, majorly disappointed.
Prediction: 11th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8%. Got the 13 seed. Play 12 seed Wichita State on day 1 of the American tourney. One really good point center to pass their way to the championship? Eliminated by Wichita State in the 1st Round of the American tournament.
Stats (3/9): T 10th American, Record 11-20 (5-13), NET 200+ (1-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 108), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (6-7, 0-0 loss at Tulane; 6-9, 0-2 loss at South Florida; 7-12, 1-5 loss home Tulsa; 10-16, 4-9 home East Carolina). Really dominated by Tulane and South Florida in games 1 and 3. Beaten at home by Tulsa in game 7 and their season is going south. Absolutely crushed East Carolina for their 2nd straight win up to 5 conference wins. Beaten at home by Temple by 22 in game 15. Beaten at home by NOrth Texas to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: They have a couple of decent bigs in the point center Fiedler and Dawes.

Wichita State. New coach Mills for Wichita State has some problems on his hands.
Prediction: 12th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2%. 12 seed. Play 13 seed Rice in Round 1 of the American tourney. Showing some signs of life late. Eliminated by UAB in the American quarterfinals.
Stats (3/8): 13th American, Record 13-18 (5-13), NET 150+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 102), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5: 0-0 win at Coastal Carolina; 4-0 loss neutral Liberty; 4-1 win neutral Saint Louis; 5-1 loss at Missouri; 8-4 loss neutral Kansas): Put away Coastal Carolina late. Blown out by CUSA’s preseason #1 Liberty. Then beat Saint Louis easily. In the game most of the way at Missouri, but lost by 10. Blown out by Kansas.
Conference (10: 8-5, 0-0 LOSS home North Texas; 8-7, 0-2 LOSS home Memphis; 8-11, 0-6 win home SMU; 9-11, 1-6 loss at Tulsa; 10-13, 2-8 LOSS Florida Atlantic): Controlled at home by North Texas and Memphis in games 1 and 3. Games 2 and 4 losses at Temple and Florida Atlantic. Finally got a home win in game 7 against SMU. Lost game 8 at Tulsa to drop to 1-7 in the American. Almost beat Memphis on the road in game 9, but only almost. Home loss to Florida Atlantic in game 11. Beaten at Charlotte in game 13. Nice dominating win over Tulsa in game 14. Then beaten at home by Temple in game 15 and it is getting ugly. Then, suddenly they win at UAB and college basketball is weird. Beaten at Tulane to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Smallish forward Quincy Ballard does everything for them. Two giant talented bigs who underperformed in the Coastal Carolina game, and not a lot else. Mills is a very good coach from a smaller conference, moving up a level.

Northern Kentucky. Disciplined but undertalented team that will compete in the Horizon League.
Prediction: 6th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 18% Chance. Last game against Wright State who they are tied for 4th with. Winner gets the 4 seed or maybe the 3 if Green Bay loses. Can win the tourney, but would have to upset multiple teams. Eliminated by Milwaukee in the Horizon semifinals.
Stats (2/28): T 4th Horizon, Record 17-13 (12-7), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 loss at Washington). Washington had a hard time putting them away.
Conference (11-9, 6-3 loss home Purdue Fort Wayne): Beaten at home by Purdue Fort Wayne. Beat Cleveland State at home in game 17. Won at Robert Morris in game 19.
Players and Coach: Decent guards. Small up front. But they compete. They are organized but not athletic.

Stony Brook. Some atheticism, enough to pull some upsets this year.
Prediction: 8th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. 7 seed. First round against 10 seed Northeastern. If they play really well in the tourney could steal the CAA AUTOBID. Eliminated by Charleston in the Costal final.
Stats (3/2): T 6th CAA, Record 17-14 (10-8), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at St. Johns). Struggled with Soriano at St. Johns but which mid-major team wouldn’t?
Conference (7-6, 0-0 WIN at Northeastern, 9-9, 2-3 LOSS home Hofstra; 10-10, 3-4 win home UNC Wilmington): Really nice conference opening win at Northeastern, controlling the game start to finish. In a very close loss at home with fellow mid-table Hofstra in game 6. Beat conference favorite UNC Wilmington at home in game 8. Beat North Carolina A&T at home in game 15. Lost at Drexel in a close one in game 17. Crushed Delaware in their last game to finish 10-8.
Players and Coach: Two nice players, with Snowdy and Stephenson-Moore. Guards Noll and Clarke also capable of having nice games against. Small guards, small team.

La Salle. Losing a lot of games in the A10.
Prediction: 13th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 10 seed. Play 15 seed George Washington on day 1 of the A10 tourney. Eliminated by St. Bonaventure in the 2nd round of the A10.
Stats (3/9): T 10th A10, Record 15-16 (6-12), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 137), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-0 loss at Duke; 8-2 loss at Miami). Not competitive with Duke. The Atlantic 10 is hard to evaluate early in the season as they play the major conferences. But I didn’t see a lot to like in the game against Duke. They were better against Miami, but lost by 10.
Conference (9-5, 0-1 win at Fordham; 10-6, 1-2 loss home VCU; 10-7, 1-3 loss at St. Joseph’s; 11-10, 2-6 loss home St. Joseph’s; 13-14, 4-10 home Rhode Island): Very nice game 2 win at Fordham. Beaten by VCU in a close one at home in game 4. Beaten by 20 at St. Joseph’s in game 5. Then St. Joseph’s beat them at home in game 9. Beat UMass and St. Bonaventure at home in a great week for them to get to 4 conference wins. Absolutely crushed Rhode Island at home for their 3rd straight conference win in game 15. Winning streak came to an end at Duquesne in game 16. Lost at Loyola Chicago to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach: Very Small. Brickus and Brantley are the two leading scorers, both good guards who play the full game. Fran Dunphy is a VERY experienced coach.

Marist. Excellent streak mid-season. Lost 3 of their last 5.
Prediction: 3rd MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 19% Chance. Got the 3 seed through tiebreakers and await the winner of the 6/11 game. Eliminated by Fairfield in the MAAC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd MAAC, Record 17-12 (12-8), NET 150+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-2 loss at Notre Dame) They were in the game the whole way AT Notre Dame, so I have them above Notre Dame.
Conference (9-7, 4-3 loss at Niagara): Lost a very close MAAC game at Niagara in game 8 to reach 4 losses and drop to .500 in conference. Won at Manhattan in game 15. Nice win over Fairfield at home in game 17 to pull even with them in the loss column. Beat Niagara at home to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: Collins and Pascarelli are a good guard tandem, and they have won a bunch of games early. Dunn is the longest tenure coach in the MAAC.

No Tournament This Year (teams 200 to 299).

200-209

Georgetown. VERY tough year for the Hoyas.
Prediction: 10th Big East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1%. NOT likely. Clinched the 10 seed. They have a couple of players who might win a game or two in the conference tourney, but their only 2 conference wins were against 11 seed DePaul so not good. Eliminated by Providence in Round 1 of the Big East tourney.
Stats (3/8): 10th Big East, Record 9-22 (2-18), NET 200+ (0-11 Quad 1), KP 150+ (SoS 44), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (12: 1-0 loss home Holy Cross; loss at Rutgers; 2-2 home American; 5-2 loss home TCU; 5-3 loss home Syracuse). Lost to a very average Holy Cross team in game 2. Stayed with a good Rutgers team for quite a while before going down. Barely beat both Jackson State and Merrimack at home. Lost at home to marginal TCU and Syracuse teams. Nice win, I guess, at Notre Dame? They are going to lose a LOT of Big East games.
Conference (9: 7-6, 0-0 LOSS home Creighton, 8-7, 1-3 LOSS home Seton Hall; 8-9, 1-5 loss at Xavier; 8-10, 1-6 LOSS home Butler; 8-13, 1-9 at Seton Hall; 8-16 home Villanova): Controlled at home by Creighton. Beaten at home by Seton Hall and Butler in games 5 and 8. Beaten easily at UConn in game 6, and lost a close one home with Xavier in game 7. Beaten again in games 9, 11, and 13 at Providence, Seton Hall and Creighton. Beaten by UConn, Villanova, and St. John’s at home in games 12, 14 and 15. WON at DePaul in game 16, barely! Back on the loss train at Villanova and St. John’s and home against Xavier and Providence in games 17-20 to finish 2-18.
Players and Coach: Ed Cooley from Providence is the new coach but they have no players this year. Styles is a real athlete. Epps, the transfer from Illinois, really bailed them out against American with like 90 points. Jay Heath is also major conference competitive. Lots of parts to put together here. Going to have a tough year in the Big East, but Cooley will coach them up and they will get better.

UC Santa Barbara. In what I call the Big West 5-8 seed morass. Could have been higher.
Prediction: 6th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 16% Chance. 7 seed. First game against 6 seed Cal State Northridge. Have a great player in Mitchell who could win the tourney. Eliminated by Cal State Northridge in the 1st round of the Big West tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 7th BW, Record 16-14 (9-11), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (UTEP; ). Were missing their NBA superstar in the game against UTEP, but struggled without him. Will be far better with an NBAer on the team but how much better?
Conference (7-3, 0-0 loss at UC Davis; 9-6, 2-3 win home Long Beach State; 12-7, 5-4 home UC Davis; 14-11, 7-8 loss at UC Irvine): Controlled at UC Davis but not blown out.Nice home win against Long Beach State in game 6. Close, but beaten, at UC Irvine in game 16. Beat Cal Poly in game 17 at home. Beaten at home by UC Riverside to finish 9-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Mitchell is the reigning Big West player of the year and hard to stop. Pasternack 1st year head coach.

Fresno State. They are 4-0 against Air Force and San Jose State!
Prediction: 9th MWC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. 9. seed. Last game Wyoming at home where they can go for their 5th conference win. 9 seed. Likely Wyoming in the first round. Will need 4 upset wins in the tourney. Eliminated by Utah State in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
Stats (3/6): 9th MWC, Record 11-19 (4-13), NET 200+ (0-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 86), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-1 win neutral New Mexico State; 3-1 loss neutral James Madison). Played an even game with a fairly bad New Mexico State, and eventually won. Then destroyed by an excellent James Madison team.
Conference (7-6, 0-0 loss at San Diego State; 8-10, 1-4 LOSS home Boise State; 9-11, 2-5 loss at UNLV; 9-12, 2-6 LOSS home Colorado State; 11-13, 4-7 LOSS home UNLV): Blown out at San Diego State in game 1. Beaten at home by Boise State in game 6. Loss at UNLV in game 8. Beaten by Colorado State and UNLV at home in games 9 and 12. Road loss at Boise State to fall to 4-9. Beaten at home by San Diego State and Utah State in games 14 and 15. Lost at Nevada and New Mexico in games 16 and 17.
Players and Coach: They have 2 6’11 starters, but are an entirely unremarkable college basketball team. Hill and Pope are decent guards. Hutson, their coach, is really non-descript.

Purdue Fort Wayne. Made the mistake of assuming a DePaul victory meant they were good.
Prediction: 7th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 13% STEAL. Fell all the way to the 8 seed. They have a lot of road wins right at the end of the year and beat Youngstown State recently. Dangerous team in the conference tournament. Eliminated by Oakland in the Horizon quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 7th Horizon, Record 20-11 (11-9), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 WIN at DePaul). Looked totally evenly matched, and outplayed DePaul in their first game win.
Conference (13-7, 4-5 WIN at Northern Kentucky): Nice win at a decent Northern Kentucky in game 10. Won at Green Bay in a destructive bubble game for Green Bay in game 17. Won at Wright State in game 19. Beat Robert Morris at home to finish the season at 11-9.
Players and Coach: I think they probably make the NIT from the Horizon league, if not then the CBA and they will be dangerous in that tournament. Possibly can win the Horizon league because this is a good team. Great guards.

George Washington. Total collapse ongoing with this team.
Prediction: 14th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. 15 seed. Play 10 seed La Salle in Round 1 of the A10 tourney. Almost no chance given their end of season. Eliminated by La Salle in the 1st round of the A10 tourney.
Stats (3/9): 15th A10, Record 15-16 (4-14), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (11-3, 0-1 WIN at VCU; 13-3, 2-1 home win George Mason; 14-10, 3-8 home Richmond): Nice win at VCU in game 2. Beat George Mason in game 4 at home. Beaten by Richmond at home in game 12. Beaten at St. Joseph’s to fall to 3-10 in the A10. Lost at Duquesne to finish the conference at 4-14.
Players and Coach: Buchanan is a serious small forward scorer for them. Johnson is a big guard and a serious 3 point shooter. Bishop also a talented guard who leads them in scoring. Couple lanky bigs. Caputo is their 2nd year coach.

North Dakota State. Gonna be favored in their first round Summit game.
Prediction: 3rd Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 14% Chance. 5 seed and .500. Right in the middle. Play 4 seed St. Thomas in the Summit quarterfinals. Decent chance in the fairly even Summit. Eliminated by St. Thomas in the Summi quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 5th Summit, Record 15-16 (8-8), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 at Creighton). Stayed in early against Creighton, but ended up losing by a ton.
Conference (14-14, 7-6 home North Dakota): Tight game 14 at home with North Dakota, and won. Lost at 8 seed South Dakota by 20 in game 15. Beaten by 17 at home by South Dakota State to end the conference at 8-8.
Players and Coach: I still think they are going to get a lot of wins at their level in their conference. Morgan, best described as a small conference center, had 27 in the game against North Dakota.

Iona.
Prediction: 4th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 7 seed. Play 10 seed Manhattan in the 1st Round of the MAAC Tourney. Good history is all they have to go on at this point. Really have faded as the season has gone on. Too many losses in conference this year. Eliminated by Fairfield in the MAAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th MAAC, Record 15-16 (10-10), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (12-11, 7-5 win home Manhattan): Controlled Manhattan easily in the one game I saw. Beaten at Rider in game 15. Beaten at home by Quinnipiac in a seeding and searparation loss in game 16. Beat Siena at home to finish at 10-10 in conference.
Players and Coach: They don’t really have any bigs, even for the MAAC. Panzo shoots the 3 for them.

Central Michigan. Really nice season for Central Michigan.
Prediction: 6th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 20% Chance. 4 seed. 1st Round against Bowling Green the 5 seed. Eliminated by Bowling Green in the MAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/8): 4th MAC, Record 18-13 (12-6), NET 250+ (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-4 loss at Ohio State; 2-5 loss at Creighton). Crushed by Ohio State. Didn’t show a lot in the game. Beaten easily at Creighton.
Conference (8-9, 3-2 win home Toledo): Really nice win at home against Toledo. Beat Bowling Green in game 13 to get to 10-3 and 1 game out of 1st. Beaten at Miami of Ohio in game 14 and home against Ball State in game 15, and those are bad results for them. Beat Eastern Michigan at home to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: Pritchard is a scoring guard and maybe their best player. Kind of a lot of mid-sized decent players.

Brown. Qualified for the 4 team Ivy tourney! Will be a MAJOR underdog in both games.
Prediction: 4th Ivy; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. Beat Yale to prove they can compete in the semifinals. Would need 2 upsets in that to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Yale in the Ivy Final.
Stats (3/8): 4th Ivy, Record 12-17 (8-6), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-8 loss at Providence). Looked very overmatched at Providence.
Conference (4-11, 0-0 home Yale). Beaten at home by Yale in game 1. Won at Columbia in game 10. Beat Harvard to take the 4 seed for their 5th straight Ivy win. Great win at Yale to finish the conference at 8-6.
Players and Coach: No Athletes.

San Jose State. They beat Air Force twice!
Prediction: 10th MWC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. Almost no chance of winning the AUTOBID. Too many good teams. They are going to be the 10 or 11 seed, and have the tie breaker over Air Force so probably the 10, which means playing Colorado State, New Mexico or UNLV in round one. Yikes. Eliminated by Colorado State in the 1st Round of the MWC Tournament.
Stats (3/6): 11th MWC, Record 9-22 (2-16), NET 200+ (0-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 93), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (7-7, 0-1 LOSS home Boise State; 7-8, 0-2 LOSS home San Diego State; 8-10, 1-4 LOSS home New Mexico; 8-11, 1-5 LOSS home UNLV; 8-13, 1-7 loss at Nevada): Very close games at home with Boise State and San Diego State in games 1 and 2, but were beaten late in both. Still losing home games in confernce in game 6 home New Mexico. Beaten in game 7 at home with UNLV. Beaten easily at Nevada and Colorado State in games 9 and 11. Beaten at home by Nevada in game 15. Almost beat San Diego State on the road in game 16. Beaten at UNLV in game 17. Beaten at home by Utah State to finish the conference at 2-16.
Players and Coach: Dealing with a lot of injuries mid-season. Cardenas maybe their best player. Very non-descript. Tim Miles, formerly of Iowa State, is their coach.

210-219

Cal State Fullerton. Disappointing sason with their talent level.
Prediction: 7th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team Big West tourney.
Stats (3/9): 10th BW, Record 14-18 (7-13), NET 200-+ (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at San Diego State). Kind of showed some capability against a very good San Diego State team.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by UC Irvine to finish the conference at 7-13.
Players and Coach:

Eastern Kentucky. Mostly cruising through the Atlantic Sun.
Prediction: 1st Atlantic Sun; AUTOBID; 16 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NET is too low and too many non-conference losses.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 50% IN. 1 seed Lost at the 3 and 4 seeds in the last week of the conference season. 4 other teams above .500 could have a say on who gets the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Jacksonville in the Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 1st ASun, Record 17-13 (12-4), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi 16 Seed
Non-Conference (4-7 at Alabama; 4-8 at Purdue). Ability to win the Atlantic Sun not evident on the road at Alabama and at Purdue when they lost both by 40.
Conference (12-10, 8-1 win home Florida Gulf Coast): Controlled Florida Gulf Coast in game 10 to get to 9-1. Won at home against Central Arkansas in game 14. Upset at Austin Peay in game 15 for their 3rd conference loss. Lost at Lipscomb in their last game to finish 12-4.
Players and Coach: Cozart is a great defensive big, #1 in the country in blocks, especially in the Atlantic Sun. Cozart scores and rebounds too.

Abilene Christian. Not a physical team. They had 7 wins in a row, including Grand Canyon at home.
Prediction: 8th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 6 seed. Play Stephen F. Austin the 7 seed in Round 1 of the WAC tourney. Showed some mettle against Arkansas. Eliminated by Stephen F. Austin in the 1st round of the WAC tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 6th WAC, Record 15-16 (10-10), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-6 loss at Arkansas). Arkansas was flying all over them. But they kept it inside 15 points.
Conference (no games seen): Won at Southern Utah in game 17 for their 5th win in a row. Lost home against Utah Valley to finish 10-10 in conference.
Players and Coach:

Cleveland State. Pretty nondescript Horizon team.
Prediction: 5th Horizon; No Tournament
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. Got the 7 seed. I didn’t see any blinking lights of likely tourney success. Eliminated by Oakland in the Horizon semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 7th Horizon, Record 18-13 (11-9), NET 200+ (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen)
Conference (10-5, 3-1 loss at Wright State). Pretty bad loss at Wright State in the only game I saw. Beaten at Northern Kentucky in game 17. Beaten at home by Green Bay in a losing separation game 19. Beat IUPUI at home to finish the season at 11-9.
Players and Coach:

Portland State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 5th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 11% Chance. I see no reason to see them moving up in the standings right now based on their schedule. Eliminated by Montana in the Big Sky quarterfinals.
Stats (3/4): 6th Big Sky, Record 17-14 (8-10), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Idaho at home in game 18 to finish 8-10 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Northeastern. I thought they were better than they are.
Prediction: 9th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 10 seed. First game against 7 seed Stony Brook. 5 wins to the AUTOBID. Elimionated by Stony Brook in the 2nd round of the Coastal tournament.
Stats (3/2): 10th CAA, Record 12-19 (7-11), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (3-4 loss at Seton Hall; 4-6 loss at Virginia). Kind of in the game against Seton Hall. Then in the game at Virginia. and had a shot to win it at the end.
Conference (5-8, 0-0 loss home Stony Brook; 5-9, 0-1 loss at Monmouth; 5-10, 0-2 win home Hofstra). Controlled at home by Stony Brook, and blown out at Monmouth in game 2, so bad start to the conference. Beat Hofstra in game 3. Beat Elon at home in game 15. Beaten at Delaware and Drexel in games 17 and 18 to finish 7-11 in conference.
Players and Coach: Played a tough road schedule at the beginning of the year and might benefit in conference. Good guards. Balanced scoring.

Air Force. A very rough year in the tough Mountain West.
Prediction: 11th MWC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0.05% Chance. Season best win at New Mexico. 2 brutal games left likely to finish 2-16. Likely 11 seed (they lose the tiebreaker to San Jose State) will have to play a very hard team in game 1 of the tourney (New Mexico or Colorado State). Eliminated by New Mexico in the 1st round of the MWC tourney.
Stats (3/1): 10th MWC, Record 9-19 (2-14), NET 250+ (1-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 124), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (7-9, 0-4 loss home New Mexico; 7-10, 0-5 WIN at UNLV; 8-13, 1-8 LOSS home San Diego State): Dismantled by New Mexico at home in game 5. Absolutely destroyed UNLV by 30 on the road in game 6 in maybe the most unexpected game of the NCAAs this year. Lost at home to San Diego State in game 10 to drop to 1-9 in conference. Got their 2nd conference win at NEW MEXICO in game 14. Beaten at Utah State in game 16.
Players and Coach: Undersized and undertalented team for the Mountain West. Very young. Petraitis maybe their best player.

Harvard. Not gonna top the Ivy League.
Prediction: 5th Ivy; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% OUT. DNQ 4 Team Ivy Tournament. Clinched 5th place.
Stats (3/8): 5th Ivy, Record 14-13 (5-9), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-1 at Indiana). In the game the whole way against Indiana, but faded.
Conference (9-6, 0-2 win at Penn): Nice win at Penn in game 3. Beaten home against Princeton in game 10. Beaten at Brown in the Ivy 4 seed game and at Yale in their 2nd to last game, and are now out of the Ivy tournament. Lost at Dartmouth to finish the conference at 5-9.
Players and Coach: Nice guard in Malik Mack, who managed to score against a very good defensive player in Xavier Johnson.

Columbia.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th Ivy; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 4 Team Ivy Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 6th Ivy, Record 13-14 (4-10), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost at home to Brown in game 10. Beaten at Princeton and Penn in game 12 and 13. Lost to Cornell to finish 4-10
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

220-229

Lipscomb. Definitely a favorite in the conference tourney.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 3rd Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30% Chance. 3 seed. Will have to beat Stetson and Eastern Kentucky to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by North Alabama in the Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 3rd ASun, Record 20-11 (11-5), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Won at home aginst Bellarmine in game 15. Beat Eastern Kentucky the 1 seed in their final game to get to 11-5.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Kansas City. They have won 6 in a row against the top half of the conference to get to the 2 seed.
Prediction: 4th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 19% Chance. They were dead in the water until the last 6 games which they have won all of, beating all the top seeds to get the 2 seed. They are definitely a favorite in the Summit tournament given their hot streak. Eliminated by Denver in the Summit quarterfinals.
Stats (3/3): T 2nd Summit, Record 16-15 (10-6), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (8-12, 2-3 loss at South Dakota State): Led most of the way and lost at South Dakota State in game 6. Won at Denver in game 15! Beat Oral Roberts to finish 10-6 in conference.
Players and Coach. Pretty non-descript team.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Could get the AUTOBID if McNeese trips up.
Prediction: 2nd Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 35% Chance. Has to find a way to beat McNeese. Good to be the 2 seed. Favorite until they play McNeese. Eliminated by Nicholls in the Southland semifinals.
Stats (3/6): 2nd SL, Record 21-10 (14-4), NET 150+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (11-7, 4-1 loss home McNeese): In a very close game in game 6 home against conference leader McNeese, and couldn’t box out for the win. Win at Houston Christian in game 15. Beat Incarnate Word at home to finish the conference season at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Clark, a forward, is their best player. Humphrey is a nice point guard.

Southern Miss.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Beaten by Louisiana in the final game of the regular season for the 5 seed. Will play the winner of 11 v 14, then will need 3 upsets after their first game in the tournament. Eliminated by Texas State in the 2nd Round of the Sun Belt Tournament.
Stats (3/1): 6th Sun Belt, Record 16-15 (9-9), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost game 17 at South Alabama on the road. Lost at Louisiana in game 18 to finish 9-9.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Georgia State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Won the 4 way battle for the 7 seed on the last day. They start the Sun Belt tourney on day one against Marshall who they just beat. Eliminated by Marshall in the Sun Belt 2nd Round.
Stats (2/28): T 7th Sun Belt, Record 13-16 (7-10), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten in game 17 at home by James Madison. Beat Marshall in the last game of the year at home to finish 8-10.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Bryant.
Prediction: 3rd America East; No Tournament..
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 17% Chance. 3 seed. Game one against 6 seed Maine. Eliminated by UMass Lowell in the America East semifinals.
Stats (3/5): 3rd AE, Record 19-12 (11-5), NET 150+ (1-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-3 loss at Xavier; 8-6 loss at Ole Miss). Did not show much in a game at Xavier. Hard to judge. Stayed in the game with Ole Miss, kind of.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten by 20 at UMass Lowell in a separation game 14. Beat Albany at home to finish the conference at 11-5.
Players and Coach:

New Hampshire.
Prediction: 4th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 4 seed. First game against Binghamton in the 4/5 quarterfinal. They are going out with a whimper. They might lose in the opening round, and if not then they have Vermont to beat in the semis. Eliminated by Vermont in the America East semifinals.
Stats (3/5): T 4th AE, Record 15-14 (7-9), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-2 loss at UConn). Overmatched agrainst UConn on the road.
Conference (no games seen): Beat NJIT at home in game 12. Beaten at Albany in game 14. Beaten at home by Vermont to finish the conference 7-9.
Players and Coach: Daniels is their best scorer.

American. Will compete for the Patriot AUTOBID.
Prediction: 2nd Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NET 250+
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 14% STEAL. Beat Colgate once! Navy left. American will definitely be a threat in the Patriot tournament. Could still finish anywhere from the 2-6 seed, but with a win will get the 2 or the 3. Can they repeat their upset win? Eliminated by Bucknell in the Patriot quarterfinals.
Stats (2/28): T 2nd Patriot, Record 16-14 (10-7), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-2 WIN at Georgetown). Played a very good game against a very bad major conference team Georgetown. Led the entire way and Georgetown kept coming back and beat them in OT. They may do a lot worse than 2nd, but in this one game they looked GREAT. Fun game to beat their city rivals.
Conference (7-7, 1-0 WIN at Bucknell; 9-8, 3-1 WIN at Loyola Maryland; 14-14, 8-7 WIN at Colgate): Beat Bucknell and Loyola Maryland on the road in game 2 and 5. Dropped game 15 against Boston University at home. Upset Colgate on the road in game 16 which is a great win for them. Beat Army on the road by 20+ in game 17.
Players and Coach: Simpkins is their new unproven coach. They shoot the 3 well.

North Dakota. Kind of faded at the end.
Prediction: 5th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 22% Chance. Up to 6 losses. 3 seed. Quarterfinal against 6 seed Omaha. Eliminated by Omaha in the Summit quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 2nd Summit, Record 18-13 (10-6), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (8-5 home St. Thomas; 17-11, 9-4 loss at North Dakota State): Absolutely crushed in their first game in the Summit with St. Thomas. Beat Denver at home in game 13. Beaten at North Dakota State for their 5th conference loss, falling back a game from South Dakota State with 2 to go. Beaten at home by South Dakota State in game 15 a real separation game. Beat South Dakota at home to finish 10-6.
Players and Coach:

Saint Louis. Ugly ugly season.
Prediction: 15th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. 14 seed. Play 11 seed Rhode Island in Round 1 of the A10 tourney. They have won 4 of their last 9 to get out of last place. Eliminated by Duquesne in the 2nd round of the A10 tournament.
Stats (3/9): T 13th A10, Record 12-19 (5-13), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 90), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Wyoming; 4-0 loss neutral Vermont; 4-1 loss neutral Wichita State). Handled Wyoming pretty easily. Then were totally wiped out by VERMONT. Then lost to a pretty average Wichita State team.
Conference: (6: 7-7, 0-1 loss at George Mason; 7-8, 0-2 win home St. Joseph’s; 8-13, 1-7 LOSS home Fordham; 9-14, 2-8 loss at St. Joseph’s; 9-15, 2-9 LOSS home VCU): Blown out at George Mason. Really nice game 3 win at home with St. Joseph’s. Controlled at Dayton and at VCU in games 4 and 5. Beaten at home by Fordham in game 9. Almost beat St. Joseph’s on the road in game 11 to drop to 2-9. Beaten by Richmond at home in game 15. They got their 4th late win in conference at Rhode Island on the road in game 16. Crushed at home by Dayton in game 17. Won on the road at St. Bonaventure in a who knows why controlled the whole game to finish 5-13.
Players and Coach: Jimerson is a decent guard, but not up to the A10. Parker has become a very prolific scorer as the season has gone on, but it is not enough. Isowaro is a good rebounder. A Freshman forward Jung has potential. I think Travis Ford’s NCAA coaching career is over soon.

230-239

Oral Roberts. Lost 7 straight to almost everyone else in the Summit at the end of the year.
Prediction: 6th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Ugly ugly end of the year. 9 seed against 8 seed South Dakota. Eliminated by South Dakota State in the Summit quarterfinals.
Stats (3/3): 9th Summit, Record 11-18 (5-11), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (7-7 loss home Weber State): Taken out by Weber State, but in the game.
Conference (11-12, 5-5 WIN at South Dakota State): Beaten at South Dakota State in game 11 fairly easily. Beaten at home by Kansas City to finish 5-11.
Players and Coach: Bedford is a decent guard. McBride, the transfer from Vanderbilt, is becoming their scorer. New coach is unproven.

Rhode Island. I don’t think their talent measures up even in the A10.
Prediction: 11th A10; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. NET 200+.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 11 seed. Play 14 seed Saint Louis on gday 1 of the A10 tourney. The La Salle and Saint Louis games are NOT a good omen. Rhode Island would have to be really hot to win the A10 tourney. Eliminated by Saint Louis in Round 1 of the A10 tournament.
Stats (3/9): T 10th A10, Record 12-19 (6-12), NET 200+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 101), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-2 loss at Providence). Controlled by Providence in a very high energy game.
Conference (6: 9-8, 3-1 loss at Dayton; 10-11, 4-4 LOSS home Duquesne; 11-13, 5-6 LOSS home Loyola Chicago; 11-15, 5-8 loss at La Salle; 11-16, 5-9 at VCU): Absolutely destroyed at Dayton in game 5. Beaten easily at home by Duquesne in game 9. Beaten by Loyola Chicago and Richmond in games 12 and 13 at home. Beaten at La Salle in game 14 and their 9th conference loss. Blown out at VCU in game 15. Beaten at home by Saint Louis in game 16 which tells me they are DONE. Won at Fordham to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach: Almost an entirely new team through the transfer portal. House is their leading scorer. Green, a long athletic guard, is their best player. Archie Miller, former wunderkind coach, coaches Rhode Island.

Radford. Have really had a hard time this year.
Prediction: 6th Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% OUT. 8 seed. Really not looking good, but I thought they were a LOT better. Beat South Carolina Upstate in the 8/9 game. Eliminated by High Point in the Big South quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 8th Big South, Record 15-16 (5-11), NET 200+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at North Carolina). Radford hung in there in the 1st half against North Carolina in their season opener.
Conference (10-6, 0-1 win at Longwood; 13-12, 3-7 LOSS home Winthrop; 13-14, 3-9 WIN at Gardner-Webb): Nice win in game 2 at Longwood. Dropped their 8th conference game in game 11 home against Winthrop and the season is really collapsing on them. Good road win at Gardner Webb in game 13. Beaten at Charleston Southern in game 15. Beaten at home by UNC Asheville to finish the conference season at 5-11.
Players and Coach: Experienced guards in Smith, Giles and Antoine. Small. Have almost no size.

Penn. They look like an Ivy League team.
Prediction: 7th Ivy; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 4 Team Ivy Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 7th Ivy, Record 11-18 (3-11), NET 200+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 128), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-4 loss neutral Kentucky; 8-6 loss at Auburn). Small, organized. You have to be careful when you play them. Beat Villanova in a game I didn’t see. In the game with Kentucky Lost by 20+ at Auburn.
Conference (9-8, 1-1 loss home Harvard): Beaten at home by Harvard in game 3. Win at Dartmouth in game 10. Beaten at home by Cornell in game 12. Won home against Columbia in game 13. Beaten by Princeton at home to finish the conference 3-13.
Players and Coach: Might finish higher or even win the Ivy, but for now I have them fourth. Perkins is their 2nd leading scorer, they were missing their lead player against Auburn.

San Diego. Beating everyone but the top 3 in the WCC.
Prediction: 5th WCC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4%. 5 seed, dominating the bottom 4 and losing to the top 4.
Stats (3/2): 5th WCC, Record 17-14 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (6-4 WIN home Arizona State). Deuce Turner, a guard, was the best player on the floor, and they won in an upset home with Arizona State, which is working out to be a very good non-conference win. Eliminated by Santa Clara in the 3rd round of the WCC Tourney.
Conference (10-5, 0-0 LOSS home Saint Mary’s; 12-10, 2-5 loss at San Francisco; 16-12, 6-7 at Saint Mary’s): San Diego was really dismantled in their conference opener home with Saint Mary’s. Beaten easily in game 8 at San Francisco. Beaten at Saint Mary’s by 25 in game 14. Lost to Loyola Marymount in game 15 on the road. Beat Pacific at home to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: Turner is a really excellent scoring guard. Steve Lavin is their coach, which should help them in close games.

Temple. Very below average American team.
Prediction: 13th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Nice wins at Wichita State and Rice. In the 5 way tie for 10th and last but got the 11 seed. Round 1 against 14 seed UTSA. Temple has a long history of pulling upsets, but they would need 5 of them.
Stats (3/10): T 10th American, Record 12-19 (5-13), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 126), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 win home Navy; 6-6 win neutral Portland). Only 2 players back from last year, lots of tiny conference transfers. Let Navy back in the game, and I really don’t see them winning much in the American. Barely beat Portland on a neutral floor. Did NOT impress.
Conference (7-7, 0-1 win home Wichita State; 8-12, 1-6 loss at East Carolina; 8-13, 1-7 at Tulane; 8-14, 1-8 LOSS home Memphis; 8-16, 1-10 loss at Florida Atlantic): Good game 2 win at home with Wichita State. Beaten by nearly 20 at North Texas in game 4. Dropped to 1-8 in conference in game 8 and 9 losses at East Carolina and Tulane. Home loss to Memphis in game 10. Beaten at Florida Atlantic in game 12. Won at Wichita State in game 14 for their 3rd conference win. Won at Rice by 22 in game 15. Lost at home to UAB in game 17. Won at UTSA to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: No real bigs. Miller, a guard, is their leader and does everything. Adam Fisher is their head coach, pretty new.

Quinnipiac. Up to 5 losses in the MAAC so their tourney hopes are tourney linked!
Prediction: 1st MAAC; NO TOURNEY.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. NET 150+.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% AUTOBID. Won 4 straight to clinch the 1 seed. Eliminated by Saint Peter’s in the MAAC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 1st MAAC, Record 23-8 (15-5), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT (Fairfield 15 Seed)
Non-Conference (9-3 loss at Florida). Blown out at Florida.
Conference (19-7, 11-4 home Fairfield): Beaten at home by Fairfield in game 15. Beaten at Rider in game 16 for their 4th consecutive loss. Fading hard. Ended their 4 game skid with a very nice conference win at Iona in game 17. Beat Siena at home in game 18. Won at St. Peter’s to finish the conference at 15-5.
Players and Coach: Balanc is their leading scorer and a serious big time player at guard. Lewis their second best player is also a guard.

Niagara. 14 point road win at Quinnipiac is their statement game. Can they repeat it in the tourney?
Prediction: 5th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. 6 seed so they play on the 1st day against Siena. Obioha is a giant MAAC big for a conference tourney. Eliminated by Marist in the MAAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 6th MAAC, Record 15-15 (11-9), NET 250+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (9-9, 5-3 home Marist): Won really close game home with Marist in game 9. Beaten at Canisius in game 16 in a bad seeding loss. Beaten at home by Rider in another bad seeding loss in game 17. Lost at Marist by 1 to finish the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Obioha is a really big MAAC player. Three small guards, one physical small forward.

Maine. Decent, balanced team that should content in the America East.
Prediction: 5th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. 6 seed. Next against Bryant in the America East quarterfinals. Eliminated by Bryant in the America East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/5): T 4th AE, Record 15-16 (7-9), NET 200+ (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (8-6 loss at Minnesota). Kind of in the game at Minnesota.
Conference (no games seen): Beat UMBC in game 12 at home. Won on the road at Binghamton in game 14. Beat UMass Lowell at home to finish conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: Not a lot of talent, but you have to beat them. I thought they looked good against Minnesota.

Albany.
Prediction: 6th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 8 seed, and get the unpleasant task of Vermont in the first round of the America East tourney. Would have to get hot. Eliminated by Vermont in the America East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/5): 8th AE, Record 13-18 (5-11), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-1 loss at Seton Hall). Albany did not compete with Seton Hall.
Conference (no games seen): Won game 14 home against New Hampshire. Lost at Bryant to finish the conference at 5-11.
Players and Coach: Kind of lacking in athletes.

240-249

Texas State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. No chance with their record.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% STEAL. 11 seed. Game one they play Old Dominion which they should win. If they win they play the 6 seed Southern Miss next. Eliminated by James Madison in the Sun Belt semifinals.
Stats (3/1): 11th Sun Belt, Record 14-17 (7-11), NET 200+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 122), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat UL Monroe at home in game 17. Beat 3 seed Troy at home in their last game to finish 7-11 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Rider. Fighting their way back to the middle of the MAAC pack.
Prediction: 7th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 4 seed. Quarterfinal of the MAAC tourney against the 5 seed Saint Peter’s. 7 straight wins to get up to a tie for 3rd in conference, mostly against the bottom of the conference. Eliminated by Saint Peter’s in the MAAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): T 3rd MAAC, Record 15-16 (12-8), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Marquette; 1-1 loss at Nebraska). Rider was slaughtered at Marquette, but not really their fault. Played well against Nebraska too. Difficult matchup in the game I watched.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Iona at home in game 16 for their 3rd straight win. Won at Niagara in game 18. Beat St. Peter’s to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: They have a lot of small athletes.

Pepperdine. Solidly the 8th best team in the WCC!
Prediction: 7th WCC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Conference Tourney: Ajayi would have to have the tournament of his life! Eliminated by San Diego in the 2nd round of the WCC Tourney.
Stats (2/21): 6th WCC, Record 12-17 (5-9), NET 200+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 135), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-7 loss at Louisville). Blown out at Louisville.
Conference (9-15, 2-7 LOSS home San Francisco; 3-8, 10-16 loss at St. Mary’s): Beaten at home in game 10 by San Francisco. Beaten at St. Mary’s in game 12. Won at Pacific in game 14.
Players and Coach: Pepperdine has one nice player in Ajayi, and not a lot else.

Mount St. Mary’s. The MAAC is fairly even among the top 8 teams, but they are 8th.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 8 seed. Round 1 of the MAAC tourney against Canisius. Would need an 8/9 win and 3 upsets. Eliminated by Canisius in Round 1 of the MAAC tourney.
Stats (3/9): 8th MAAC, Record 13-18 (9-11), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Saint Peter’s in game 16. Beaten at Canisius in game 18. Lost to Fairfield at home to finish the conference season to 9-11.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Central Connecticut State. Should be them or Merrimack for the AUTOBID.
Prediction: 2nd NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 50% Chance. Merrimack lost on the last day to give them the 1 seed. First game against 8 seed St. Francis. Inexplicable 2 losses with Le Moyne. They should be in the final. Eliminated by Wagner in the NEC Semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 1st NEC, Record 19-10 (13-3), NET 200+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 350+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-4 loss at Boston College). Lost by 25 at Boston College which is not a good showing.
Conference (10-8, 4-1 win at Fairleigh Dickinson): Great road win at Fairleigh Dickinson in game 5. Beat Wagner on the road in game 13. Won home against Long Island University in game 15. Beat Stonehill at home to finish 13-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Jeanne-Rose is their leading scorer.

Jacksonville State. Average CUSA team.
Prediction: 6th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Fell to the 8 seed and in the 8/9 game against Florida International. With Tandy anything can happen in the conference he’s that good. Eliminated by Florida International in the CUSA 1st Round.
Stats (3/9): 8th CUSA, Record 14-17 (6-10), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-6 loss at Wisconsin). Controlled by Wisconsin, but not blown out.
Conference (10-7, 1-1 loss at Western Kentucky): Controlled by Western Kentucky on the road in game 3. Beaten at home against UTEP in game 14. Beaten at Sam Houston to finish the conference at 6-10.
Players and Coach: Tandy is the CUSA leading scorer.

Little Rock. Little Rock has won 9 in a row and 12 of 13!
Prediction: 2nd OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 40% Chance. They have played almost no one all year, but are crushing the OVC. Wins over all three of the other top OVC teams in their winning streak. But still they haven’t beaten anyone good. I think they lose to Morehead State in the tournament. Eliminated by Morehead State in the OVC final.
Stats (3/2): T 1st OVC, Record 20-11 (14-4), NET 150+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 350+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (18-11, 12-4 home Tennessee State): Crushed Tennessee State in a separation game 17. Crushed Tennessee Tech in their last game eliminating them and finishing 14-4 and the 1 seed in conference!
Players and Coach:

Cal State Northridge.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 6 seed. Play 7 seed UC Santa Barbara in the 1st round of the Big West tourney. Eliminated by Hawaii in the Big West quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 7th BW, Record 18-14 (9-11), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by UC Irvine in game 18. Lost at Hawaii to finish the conference at 9-11.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

UT Martin. Have won 7 in a row and 11 of 12.
Prediction: 3rd OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 25% Chance. Finished in the 3 way tie for 1st, but got the 2 seed. Can they beat Morehead State? 5 other decent teams in the OVC tournament. Eliminated by Morehead State in the OVC Semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 1st OVC, Record 21-10 (14-4), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-4 loss at NC State). Controlled at NC State.
Conference (9-6, 2-0 loss home Eastern Illinois; 14-10, 7-4 WIN at Western Illinois): Not a great conference loss home with Eastern Illinois. Good conference standings win at 2nd place Western Illinois in game 12. Won at Lindenwood in game 15. Beat Tennessee Tech at home in game 17. Beat Tennessee State at home in game 18 to finish 14-4.
Players and Coach: UT Martin has a national level scorer in Sears, who can also pass the ball. Crews is a good scorer too.

Lamar. They are a middle of the pack Southland team I think.
Prediction: 3rd Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 20% Chance. 4 seed. Will play the winner of the 5/8 game in Round 2 of the Southland. No question they can pull an upset or two and get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by McNeese in the Southland semifinals.
Stats (3/6): 4th SL, Record 18-13 (12-6), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-6 loss at LSU). Not remotely competitive with LSU.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Houston Christian at home to finish 12-6 in conference.
Players and Coach: Mostly undersized with 2 bigs.

250-259

Austin Peay.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 4th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 15% Chance. Clinched the 4 seed. I have not seen this team. Eliminated by Stetson in the Atlantic Sun final.
Stats (3/1): 4th ASun, Record 17-14 (10-6), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Eastern Kentucky the 1 seed at home in game 15. Beat Bellarmine in game 16 at home to finish 10-6 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

North Florida. Average Atlantic Sun team. Above average, I guess.
Prediction: 5th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 22% Chance. Clinched the 5 seed and will play the 4 seed Austin Peay in the ASun quarterfinals. Could definitely steal the ASun bid based on the Iowa game. Eliminated by Austin Peay in the Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 5th ASun, Record 16-15 (9-7), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-3 loss at Iowa; 7-5 loss at Florida State; 7-7 loss at Miami). Held their own at Iowa, but I think that was more Iowa struggling than them being awesome. Then blown out at Florida State and Miami.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Jacksonville in game 14 in a bad loss for them. Beaten at home by Florida Gulf Coast in game 15. Beat 2 seed Stetson by 19 at home in their last game to finish 9-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not much to see with this team.

New Mexico State. This team is a pretty bad college basketball team.
Prediction: 7th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 6 seed. Play 3 seed Western Kentucky in the CUSA quarterfinals. Eliminated by Western Kentucky in the CUSA quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 4th CUSA, Record 13-18 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 112), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-3 loss neutral Southern Illinois; 3-2 loss neutral Fresno State; 5-6 loss home New Mexico). Blown out by Southern Illinois, and really didn’t look competitive against them. Then played Fresno State and New Mexico to close losses.
Conference (6-9, 0-0 win home UTEP; 9-10, 3-1 loss at Sam Houston; 11-15, 5-6 LOSS home Sam Houston): Won a competitive game at home with UTEP in game 1. Beaten at Sam Houston in game 5 and at home by Sam Houston in game 12. Crushed at Liberty in game 14. Beat Florida International to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: I’ve watched four games with them and just don’t see a focal point. Weird team.

Omaha. Look like a top half of the Summit team.
Prediction: 7th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Pretty classic mid-table team. Will be the 6 seed unless Denver steals it with their last win and then they are the 7 seed. Definitely could steal the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Denver in the Summit semifinals.
Stats (2/29): 6th Summit, Record 14-17 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (6-8 at South Dakota): Really dominated South Dakota in a controlling team win. Lost at St. Thomas in game 16, ending their season at 7-9.
Players and Coach:

Denver.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 7 seed play 2 seed Kansas City in the Summit quarterfinals. Will need 3 upsets. Eliminated by South Dakota State in the Summit final.
Stats (3/2): 7th Summit, Record 15-16 (6-10), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Kansas City in a bad seeding loss game 15. Beaten at St. Thomas by 25 in their last game to fall to 6-10 to end the conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Western Illinois. Beat everyone except the top 3 in the OVC.
Prediction: 4th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 18% Chance. 4 seed. They play the winner of the 5 and 8 seed game in the 2nd round. Should have a very good shot, but they are 0-5 against teams above them in the conference. Eliminated by Little Rock in the OVC Semifinals.
Stats (3/2): 4th OVC, Record 20-11 (13-5), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-3 loss at Illinois; 2-4 loss at Wisconsin). Majorly struggled and lost by about 30 to Illinois, and by 25 to Wisconsin.
Conference (12-7, 5-1 WIN at Southern Indiana; 15-9, 8-3 LOSS home UT Martin): Nice game 7 win at Southern Indiana on the road. Bad conference standings loss home against UT Martin. Beat Eastern Illinois in game 17 at home. Beat SIU Edwardsville at home in game 18 to finish 13-5.
Players and Coach: Good rebounding team. They have a couple of speedy driving guards. Dent and Myers.

South Alabama. Could be better than where I have them hard to tell.
Prediction: 9th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. Clinched the 8 seed. They have won 6 of 8 late to move up in the seeding. Not a lot of fire in this team early. 5 wins from Glory. Eliminated by Georgia Southern in the 2nd Round of the Sun Belt Tourney.
Stats (3/1): T 7th Sun Belt, Record 15-15 (7-10), NET 200+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-3 loss at Maryland). Kind of stayed in the game against Maryland, but that’s not great.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Southern Miss in game 17 to pull into a 4 way tie for the 7 seed with 1 game to go. Beat UL Monroe in game 18 to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach:

Tennessee State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 5th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Clinched the 5 seed. Play the 8 seed Southern Indiana in the first round. Beat Southern Indiana. Eliminated by Western Illinois in the 2nd Round of the OVC Tourney.
Stats (3/2): 5th OVC, Record 17-14 (10-8), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (17-12, 10-6 at Little Rock): Crushed at Litle Rock in game 17. Beaten at UT Martin in game 18 to finish 10-8 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

North Alabama. At .500 in the conference.
Prediction: 6th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 6 seed. First game a tough one against Lipscomb in the quarterfinals. Eliminated by Austin Peay in the Atlantic Sun semifinals.
Stats (3/1): 6th ASun, Record 14-16 (8-8), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-5 loss at Indiana). Blown out by Indiana. Nothing spectacular was visible in the game at Indiana.
Conference (no games seen): Won at Central Arkansas in their last game to finish 8-8 in conference.
Players and Coach: Lane is their best player.

Florida Gulf Coast.
Prediction: 6th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. Clinched the 7 seed. They will be a threat in the conference tournament. 5 wins to get the AUTOBID. First round against Queens, then 2 seed Lipscomb if they win on day one. Eliminated by 8 seed Queens in the 1st round.
Stats (3/1): 7th ASun, Record 14-17 (8-8), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Indiana; 1-1 loss at Pitt; 1-6 WIN at Florida International; 3-7 loss at Minnesota). Stayed in the game for no good reason at all at Indiana. Played Florida International to a very close game and won. Did not look good at Minnesota.
Conference (4-5, 10-14 loss at Eastern Kentucky): Controlled by Eastern Kentucky in game 10 on the road. Won at North Florida in game 15. Beat Jacksonville at home in game 16 with their 3rd straight win to finish the conference season at 8-8.
Players and Coach: Zach Anderson is their best player a kind of small forward. Some nice bigs, organized guards, but nothing special. FGCU is Pat Chambers coached and has a lot of good components.

260-269

Valparaiso.
Prediction: 12th MVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. I saw nothing exciting about this team.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% STEAL. Clinched the 12 seed! Will play the 5 seed Belmont in the 1st round of the MVC tourney. 4 massive upset wins from success. Eliminated by Belmont in the 1st Round of the MVC Tournament.
Stats (3/3): 12th MVC, Record 7-24 (3-17), NET 300+ (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 110), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-5 at Virginia Tech). Controlled by Virginia Tech in a game that wasn’t close.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at Northern Iowa in game 19. Beat Illinois State to finish the conference 3-17!
Players and Coach:

ETSU. Winning some games in the Southern.
Prediction: 7th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 7 seed. First round against VMI, and if they win UNC Greensboro. All their wins are against the bottom of the Southern. Probably one win and then out. Eliminated by Samford in the Southern final.
Stats (3/2): T 7th Southern, Record 16-15 (8-10), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-1 loss at Butler). Clearly very overmatched against Butler on the r. Lean and small. Blown out.
Conference (9-9, 1-4 LOSS home Chattanooga; 13-11, 5-6 LOSS home Furman): Beaten at home by Chattanooga in game 6 in a close one. Another close loss home against Furman. Won at the Citadel 81-29 in a noteworthy score in game 17. Upset UNC Greensboro to finish the season at 8-10.
Players and Coach: A lot of interchangeable players on this team.

SIU Edwardsville. Middle to the top of the OVC team that ended up 6th.
Prediction: 6th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. NET 250+.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9%. 6 seed and will play the 7 seed Eastern Illinois in the 1st round of the OVC tourney. They were much higher in the conference earlier and beat Morehead State. Definitely could make a run in the OVC tourney. BEat Eastern Illinois. Eliminated by Morehead State in the 2nd round of the OVC Tourney.
Stats (3/2): 6th OVC, Record 16-15 (9-9), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (9-8, 2-2 home Morehead State; 13-10, 6-4 loss at Morehead State). Really nice home win against undefeated conference leader Morehead State in game 5. Lost the return game at Morehead State in game 11. Won at Tennessee Tech in game 15. Beaten at Eastern Illinois in game 17 for their 2nd straight loss. Beaten at Western Illinois in game 18 to finish at 9-9 in conference.
Players and Coach: They have some mid-sized talent that should be fine in the OVC. Minor can score in the key, and good from mid-range.

Miami (OH). Two wins put them 2 games above the MAC tourney cut line with 3 to go.
Prediction: 7th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 7 seed First round at Akron, yikes. Eliminated by Akron in the MAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/8): T 6th MAC, Record 15-16 (9-9), NET 200+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (No games seen).
Conference (6-7, 0-1 at Toledo). In the game the whole way at Toledo, but lost. Beaten at Western Michigan in game 13. Seeding win at Bowling Green in game 15. Beaten at home by Ohio to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Kind of non-descript.

Nicholls.
Prediction: 4th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30% Chance. Good Southland Team. Face a mix in their final 5 games. Conference Tourney: Definitely have a shot. Eliminated by McNeese in the final of the Southland.
Stats (3/7): 3rd SL, Record 18-13 (13-5), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-6 loss at Maryland). Played Maryland VERY close all the way down to the end.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Southeast Louisiana on the road to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Jamal West is their best player. They shoot three a LOT.

Ball State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. Have 2 wins in a row! DNQ 8 Team MAC Tourney.
Stats (3/8): 9th MAC, Record 15-16 (7-11), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Win at Northern Illinois in game 13. Won at Central Michigan in game 15! Beaten at Bowling Green in game 16.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet, based on KenPom).

Utah Tech.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th WAC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. DNQ 8 Team WAC Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 9th WAC, Record 11-20 (7-13), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 149), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Tarleton State in game 17. Beaten at Stephen F. Austin to finish at 6-12.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Southern Utah.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 10th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ for the 8 team WAC Tournament.
Stats (2/29): 10th WAC, Record 9-19 (4-13), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 144), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost at home to Abilene Christian in game 17 and eliminated.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Sacred Heart. Really nice NEC season.
Prediction: 3rd NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. Spoiled Merrimack’s conference title hopes on the last day. 3 seed will need to beat the 2 and the 1 to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Wagner in the NEC Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 3rd NEC, Record 16-15 (10-6), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-5 loss at St. John’s; 4-7 loss at Providence). But they did not look good at a physical St. John’s on the road. Lost by 15 at Providence on the road.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Fairleigh Dickinson in game 13 at home. Won at Stonehill in game 15. Nice season ending upset win to put Merrimack down to the 2 seed and finish 10-6 in conference.
Players and Coach: Picked to win the Northeast. Galette is the Northeast preseason player of the year and a scorer and an athlete. That’s more than what most Northeast teams have.

DePaul. The worst Power 6 team. Setting some kind of record with 0-15 Quad 1 record.
Prediction: 11th Big East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Eliminated in November?
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0.01% Chance. Beaten by Georgetown. 11 seed clinched! If anything is impossible it is them winning the Big East Tourney. Their season like ends on day 1 of the conference tourney. Eliminated by Villanova in the Big East 1st Round.
Stats (3/5): 11th Big East, Record 3-27 (0-19), NET 300+ (0-15 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 7), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference: (11: 1-2 loss neutral South Carolina; 1-4 loss home Northern Illinois; 1-5 loss home Iowa State; 1-6 loss at Texas A&M; 1-7 win home Louisville). Really struggled in every game I saw. South Carolina controlled the game until DePaul rallied late. Finally got a win against an average Louisville team.
Conference (10: 3-11, 0-3 loss home Creighton; 3-13, 0-5 loss home Providence; 3-15, 0-7 LOSS home Marquette, 3-17, 0-9 at Seton Hall; 3-18, 0-10 LOSS home Xavier): Not competitive with UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Providence, Butler, Seton Hall, Xavier, or St. Johns in any of the games I saw. Almost beat Georgetown in game 16.
Players and Coach: Fisher, the guard, maybe their best player overall. Ugly, ugly Power 6 season. Coach Stubblefield fired, replaced by interim coach Brady.

270-279

Georgia Southern.
Prediction: 10th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. 0-12 non-conference, but 8 wins in conference. Amazingly they are not going to have to play on the 1st day after that non-conference season. They play South Alabama in the 8/9 game on the 2nd day of the Sun Belt. Eliminated by Appalachian State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 8th Sun Belt, Record 8-23 (8-10), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-6 loss at Michigan State; 0-9 loss at Tennessee). Ugly ugly start to the season. Blown out at Michigan State.
Conference (no games seen): Won at home against Marshall in game 17. Beat Old Dominion in their last game to finish 8-10 in conference.
Players and Coach: Shoot the three, like all the time. Not great.

Queens. This is a new D-1 school from Charlotte.
Prediction: 8th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. Conference tourney: Got the 8 seed. Game 1 with Florida Gulf Coast, game 2 Stetson if they win. Eliminated by Steton in the Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 8th ASun, Record 13-18 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-7 loss at Clemson; 6-8 loss at Duke). Blown out at Clemson and Duke.
Conference (no games seen): Won their last conference game against Kennesaw State at home to finish 7-9 in their inaugural Division 1 season.
Players and Coach: Way undersized. Not close to the top of the Atlantic Sun.

Kennesaw State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Clinched the 9 seed. Game one against 10 seed Jacksonville then if they win game 2 against Eastern Kentucky. Eliminated by Jacksonville in the 1st round.
Stats (3/1): 9th ASun, Record 15-15 (6-10), NET 250+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost their final game at Queens to finish 6-10 in the conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Jacksonville. They have athletes and will win some in their conference.
Prediction: 10th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. They made it as the 10 seed despite losing 4 of their last. 5. If they get in, not showing the ability to win the tourney. Have lost 3 of 4. Eliminated by Stetson in the Atlantic Sun semifinals.
Stats (3/1): 10th ASun, Record 14-16 (5-11), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Xavier; 8-4 loss at Purdue). Kind of hung in the game against a learning who they are Xavier. Blown out by Purdue on the road.
Conference (no games seen): Beat North Florida in game 14 at home. Beaten at home by Stetson in game 15. Beaten at home by Florida Gulf Coast in game 16 to finish the conference 5-11.
Players and Coach: A decent forward in Workman. Not a lot of talent.

Western Michigan. Not a very good team, I don’t think. Might miss the MAC tourney.
Prediction: 9th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 6 seed. First Round MAC Tourney vs. 3 seed Ohio. Doing far better in the MAC than I thought possible. Eliminated by Ohio in the MAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/8): T 6th MAC, Record 12-19 (9-9), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-3 loss at Ohio State). Did not show up at Ohio State.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at Eastern Michigan in game 15. Outstanding upset win at home over Akron to finish the season at 9-9.
Players and Coach:

Marshall. Marshall lost 7 in a row to end the season.
Prediction: 11th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. Somehow ended up with the 10 seed when they were much higher. Terrible end of the year for them. Avoided day one of the tourney still and play Georgia State the 76 seed on day 2. Eliminated by James Madison in the Sun Belt quarterfinals.
Stats (3/1): 10th Sun Belt, Record 12-19 (7-11), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-3 loss at Kentucky). Blown out by Kentucky.
Conference (12-16, 7-8 LOSS home Appalachian State): Beaten at home by Appalachian State in a fairly close game 16. Beaten at Georgia Southern in game 17 to fall into a tie for 7th with them. Lost at Georgia State in game 18 to finish 7-11 in the conference.
Players and Coach: Look pretty severely undertalented.

Fairleigh Dickinson. Hard to measure up to last year’s great 16 seed upset.
Prediction: 4th NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. Got the 4 seed and play 5 seed Le Moyne in the 1st round of the NEC tourney. Nice tournament history from last year! Eliminated by Le Moyne in the NEC Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 4th NEC, Record 15-16 (9-7), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 loss at Seton Hall; 6-7 loss at Illinois). Outmatched against a pretty average or below average Seton Hall team. Not competitive with Illinois.
Conference (8-11, 2-2 win at Stonehill; 9-11, 3-2 loss home Central Connecticut State): Beat a terrible Stonehill team on the road in conference. Blown out at home in game 6 by Central Connecticut State. Beaten at Sacred Heart in game 13. Beaten at home by 1 seed Merrimack in game 17. Won their last game at Wagner to finish 9-7 in conference
Players and Coach: I don’t think this team has the same level of talent of last year’s 16 seed win over Purdue in the NCAAs. Almonor a forward is their leader. Emanuel is another good player.

Northern Illinois. I was optimistic becasue they beat DePaul. My mistake.
Prediction: 10th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. They beat Toledo! DNQ 8 Team MAC Tourney.
Stats (3/8): 11th MAC, Record 11-20 (5-13), NET 300+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-1 WIN at DePaul). Controlled the game against a bad DePaul team.
Conference (no games seen): Won at Toledo in a shocking upset in game 15. Won at Buffalo to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Northern Illinois has a very big athletic defensive center in Niederhauser and some good guards.

Mercer.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 8 seed. Round 1 against 9 seed The Citadel. They have been kind of a pain to the top of the league with a few upsets so dangerous lower seed. Eliminated by Samford in the Southern quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 7th Southern, Record 15-16 (8-10), NET 200+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost at Chattanoooga in game 17. Won at Furman in game 18 to finish the conference season at 8-10.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Bucknell. They will finish somewhere in the middle top of the Patriot.
Prediction: 3rd Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. In the 2-6 seed logjam with a game home against Lafayette last. Likely to get the 1st round bye. 1st round favorite, but not semis and final. Eliminated in the Patriot semifinals by Colgate.
Stats (2/28): T 4th Patriot, Record 12-18 (9-8), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-3 loss at Duke; 2-7 WIN at Penn State). Played a moderate schedule early and so started 2-7. Not a lot to like in a very hard to see their talent game at Duke. But then pulled a huge upset at Penn State.
Conference (10-15, 7-5 LOSS home Lehigh): Bad standings loss at home against Lehigh in game 13. Won at Loyola Maryland in game 17 by 22.
Players and Coach: Forrest is their leader. Edmonds is a pretty big guard for the Patriot League who can score.

280-289

Middle Tennessee. I haven’t seen them win, but they have 7 CUSA wins.
Prediction: 8th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 7 seed. Play 2 seed Louisiana Tech in the CUSA quarterfinals. Not really competitive in any of the conference games I saw. Eliminated by Western Kentucky in the CUSA semifinals.
Stats (3/9): T 4th CUSA, Record 13-18 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-5 loss home Belmont). Not competitive home argainst Belmont.
Conference (6-9, 0-0 loss home Louisiana Tech; 6-11, 0-2 loss at UTEP; 8-13, 2-4 loss at Western Kentucky; 12-16, 6-7 loss at Sam Houston): Controlled at home by Louisiana Tech in game 1, and on the road at UTEP in game 3. Beaten easily at Western Kentucky in game 7. Beaten at Sam Houston in game 14. Beaten at Louisiana Tech to finish the conference at 7-9.
Players and Coach: King, a long guard, is a good athlete and scorer for them. Coleman Jones holds down the middle for them as a decent sized CUSA big.

North Carolina Central. They are a likely contender for the MEAC AUTOBID.
Prediction: 2nd MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 17% Chance. Got the 2 seed. First round against 7 seed Maryland Eastern Shore. One of the most likely to win the MEAC bid. Eliminated by Delaware State in the MEAC semifinals.
Stats (3/7): T-2nd MEAC, Record 17-12 (9-5), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (8-7, 0-0 win home Howard; 13-10, 5-3 at Norfolk State). Really nice controlling win at home in their conference opener, outclassing Howard. In the game all the way at Norfolk State in game 9, and lost to fall to 5-4 in conference. Beat Delaware State in game 11 at home. Beat South Carolina State at home to finish the conference at 9-5.
Players and Coach: Cleveland is a small scoring guard and their best player.

Florida International.
Prediction: 9th CUSA; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Play 8 seed Jacksonville State in Round 1 of thge CUSA tourney. Decent guard led team who would need to make a lot of shots to win the tourney. Eliminated by Sam Houston in the CUSA quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 9th CUSA, Record 10-21 (5-11), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-6 loss home Florida Gulf Coast). For a Conference USA team they really struggled with Florida Gulf Coast and lost.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at New Mexico State to finish the conference at 5-11.
Players and Coach: Arturo Dean is their best player, a mid sized guard who is great defensively.

Binghamton.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. Got to the 5 seed winning 4 of their last 5. Eliminated by New Hampshire in the America East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/5): T 4th AE, Record 15-14 (7-9), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost at UMass Lowell in game 13. Beaten at home by Maine in game 14. Won at UMBC by 1 point in a separation final game to finish 7-9.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

SE Louisiana. Haven’t seen them, but they have no quality wins. Home win against McNeese.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 5th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 5 seed. Play 8 seed New Orleans in the Southland 1st Round. Eliminated by New Orleans in the Southland 1st Round.
Stats (3/7): 5th SL, Record 15-16 (10-8), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Nicholls to finish the conference season at 10-8.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Boston University.
Prediction: 2nd Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Below .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 14% chance. Hot team. 5 game win streak at the end to get the 2 seed. I didn’t see a lot of reasons to expect them to win the Patriot Tourney until they won 4 straight. Eliminated by Lehigh in the Patriot semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 2nd Patriot, Record 15-16 (10-8), NET 250+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (8-13, 3-5 loss at Holy Cross): Beaten at Holy Cross in game 9. Road win at American in game 15. Another road win at Lehigh in game 17. Beat Holy Cross at home to finish the conference season at 10-8.
Players and Coach. Kind of a non-descript team. Jones, their coach, has been there for 13 years.

Idaho State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 8 seed. Could get there, but will need 3 upsets. Eliminated by Montana in the Big Sky Semifinals.
Stats (3/4): T 7th Big Sky, Record 12-19 (7-11), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost home against Northern Arizona in game 16. Beaten at Montana to finish 7-11 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Cal State Bakersfield.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Made the 8 seed by finishing 9th thanks to UC San Diego not being eligible. First round against UC Riverside. Eliminated by UC Riverside in the Big West 1st Round.
Stats (3/9): 9th BW, Record 13-18 (8-12), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Upset UC Davis in game 16. Upset UC San Diego in game 17. Beaten at Hawaii to finish 8-12 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Portland. Looking for moral victories.
Prediction: 8th WCC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. In the 6/7 game against Loyola Marymount on day 2. Robertson is just not enough to win the WCC tourney. Upset Santa Clara in their only win over the top 4. Eliminated by San Francisco in Round 2 of the WCC Tourney.
Stats (3/2): T 6th WCC, Record 11-20 (5-11), NET 300+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 126), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-6 loss at Hawaii; 6-7 loss neutral Massachusetts; 6-8 loss neutral Temple). Controlled by Hawaii and Massachusetts, and lost to Temple, which is not a good sign for their WCC schedule.
Conference (7-9, 1-0 loss at Saint Mary’s; 9-15, 3-6 loss at Gonzaga): Blown out in game 2 at St. Mary’s. Blown out in game 10 at Gonzaga. Beat 4 seed Santa Clara in game 15 in a major moral victory at home. Beat Loyola Marymount at home to finish 5-11.
Players and Coach: Decent well organized team that will struggle in the WCC. Robertson is their best player. They have some size and some athletes. But not enough talent for their conference.

Charleston Southern.
Prediction: 7th Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Dropped to the 7 seed but were tied for 5th. Best win is at Gardner Webb the 3 seed on the road. Not likely they get the Big South AUTOBID. Will need three or four good wins. Eliminated by UNC Asheville in the Big South Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Big South, Record 10-19 (6-10), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 145), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-8 loss at North Carolina). Lost by 45 at North Carolina.
Conference (no games seen): Won at South Carolina Upstate in game 13. Won home against Radford in game 15. Beaten at Presbyterian to finish 6-10 in conference.
Players and Coach: New coach mid-season. Guard led team that could win some games in the Big South.

290-299

South Carolina Upstate.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 9 seed, Play 8 seed Radford in the 1st round of the Big South tourney. At least 3 upsets to get the AUTOBID. They did beat the 1 seed High Point on the road so anything is possible. Eliminated by Radford in the 1st Round of the Big South Tourney.
Stats (2/28): 9th Big South, Record 10-19 (5-11), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Lost at home in game 14 to Charleston Southern to drop to 4-10. Beat Presbyterian at home in game 16 to finish the conference season at 5-11.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Northern Arizona.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 8th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 7 seed. Lost 3 of 4 late to fall in the conference seeding. Will need 3 upsets to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Idaho State in the 1st Round of the Big Sky Tourney.
Stats (3/4): T 7th Big Sky, Record 14-18 (7-11), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Idaho State in game 16. Beaten at home by Northern Colorado to finish the conference at 7-11.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

UTSA. Won 5 games at the end.
Prediction: 14th American; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. They were in the 5 way tie for 10th and last, but got the last seed the 14. Play 11 seed Temple, who just beat them, in Round 1 of the American tourney. Got 2 upset wins to get to 4-12! 5 upsets to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Temple in the 1st round of the American tournament.
Stats (3/10): T 10th American, Record 11-20 (5-13), NET 250+ (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 143), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-7, 0-0 loss home UAB). Found a way to lose at home against a very average UAB team.
Conference (7-9, 1-2 LOSS home Charlotte; 8-15, 2-8 LOSS home East Carolina): Lost to Charlotte in game 4, and to East Carolina in game 11, at home. Won at North Texas in game 15 for their 3rd conference win. 2nd win in a row home over Tulsa in game 16. UTSA won their 3rd straight at SMU. Beaten at home by Temple to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: UTSA is HUGE. Lots of big players, Ivey Curry and Tucker, both guards, lead the team. I don’t think Henson has their attention as the body language is terrible.

Robert Morris.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. Clinched the 9 seed and will play the 8 in Round 1 of the Horizon. 9 Seed would have to win 4 games against higher seeded teams. Eliminated by Purdue Fort Wayne in the Horizon 1st Round.
Stats (3/2): 9th Horizon, Record 10-21 (6-14), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Oakland by 20 in game 17. Beaten at home by Northern Kentucky in game 19. Beaten at Purdue Fort Wayne to finish the conference at 6-14.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

South Dakota. Will definitely compete in the Summit.
Prediction: 9th Summit; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 8 seed, plays the 9 Oral Roberts in the play-in game. Eliminated by Oral Roberts in Round 1 of the Summit tourney.
Stats (3/2): T 8th Summit, Record 12-19 (5-11), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-0 loss at DePaul; 8-6 loss home Omaha). Stayed in the game with DePaul but that’s not a great result. Though against Omaha at home they were never in the game.
Conference (9-14, 2-6 at South Dakota Street): Beaten at South Dakota State in game 9. Beat North Dakota State in game 15 for their 5th conference win. Beaten at North Dakota to finish the conference at 5-11.
Players and Coach: Stewart is a big scorer for them.

Lafayette. Feisty team based on the one game I saw.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 5th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 12% Chance. Have lost 5 of 6 to absolutely plummet in the standings, but still tied for 2nd! But at Bucknell in their last game can drop them to 6 seed! The first half of the conference season indicates they might have something to say about the AUTOBID. They beat Colgate on the road. The 2nd half of the conference season was UGLY. Eliminated by Lehigh in the Patriot quarterfinals.
Stats (2/28): 2nd Patriot, Record 11-19 (10-7), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (11-16, 10-4 home Colgate): Took Colgate to the last possession and lost in game 15. Beaten at Navy in game 17.
Players and Coach .

Chicago State.
Prediction: Independent; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Season over at 12-18.
Stats (2/19): Record 12-18, NET 292 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 301 (SoS 204), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-9 WIN at Northwestern; 7-9 loss at Wisconsin; 7-11 loss at DePaul). Led in the game at Northwestern all the way in a great upset for them. Then, at Wisconsin and DePaul, totally blown out.
Conference (no conference):
Players and Coach: Cardet scores 17 points a game, and had 30 to beat Northwestern. Corbett a second scorer. Both good guards. They are not very athletic, and are undersized.

Lehigh. Have been working their way to a winning record.
Prediction: 6th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Below .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% chance. Fell all the way to the 6 seed on the last game of the year. First game with 3 seed Lafayette in the quarterfinals. Eliminated by Colgate in the Patriot final.
Stats (3/2): 6th Patriot, Record 12-17 (9-9), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 loss at North Carolina; 1-4 loss at Providence). Lehigh kind of played with North Carolina AND providence.
Conference (5-12, 2-4 loss at Colgate, 5-13, 2-5 WIN at Holy Cross; 8-15, 5-7 WIN at Bucknell; 12-16, 9-8 loss home Colgate): Played Colgate close in game 7, but lost. Nice road wins at Holy Cross and Bucknell. Beat Army by 30 on the road in game 15. Beaten at home in a seeding loss to Boston University in game 17. Played well at home with Colgate in game 18 loss.
Players and Coach: Very small. Unathletic. Not really the kind of team to pull upsets absent a great shooting night. Suffering a few injuries. Parolin may be their best player at forward coming off the bench. Whitney-Sidney is their leading scorer.

The Citadel. They were supposed to be good, but 3-15 in the Southern is not good
Prediction: 9th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. Clinched the 9 Seed and will play in the 1st round. The win at Notre Dame is pumping up their NET ratings, but that was a fluke. Eliminated by Mercer in the 1st Round of the Southern tourney.
Stats (3/2): 9th Southern, Record 11-20 (3-15), NET 250+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-5 at Notre Dame). They really controlled a very bad Notre Dame major conference team, but can’t win in the Southern.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by ETSU in game 17. Lost at Samford to finish the conference at 3-15.
Players and Coach: Millora-Brown is their best player a decent sized forward.

Presbyterian.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Big South; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 6 seed but tied for 5th. Play Gardner Webb the 3 seed in the quarterfinals. Eliminated by Gardner Webb in the Big South quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): T 5th Big South, Record 14-17 (6-10), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Winthrop on the road in game 14. Beaten by 11 seed South Carolina Upstate in game 15. Beat Charleston Southern at home to finish the conference at 6-10.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

No Tournament This Year (teams 300 to 362).

300-309

Canisius. I thought they would be better in conference, but only 3rd from last.
Prediction: 9th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 9 seed. Play Mount St. Mary’s in Round 1 of the MAAC tourney. They actually beat #1 Quinnipiac by 20 in one game, so I guess it is possible in the weak MAAC. But they would need 4 upsets. Eliminated by Quinnipiac in the MAAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 9th MAAC, Record 13-17 (8-12), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-4 loss at Pitt). Nice job staying in the game at Pitt.
Conference (12-16, 7-11 at Fairfield): Home win against Niagara in game 16. Another home win against Mount St. Mary’s. Beaten at Fairfield by 20 in game 19. Won at Manhattan to finish the conference at 8-12.
Players and Coach: They have some offense and capability. Dinkins the guard is a good player.

UMBC. I think they don’t win a lot in the America East.
Prediction: 8th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. Won 4 of 5 to move up to the 5 seed, then lost by 1 at home to fall to the 7 seed. Eliminated by UMass Lowell in the America East quarterfinals.
Stats (3/5): 7th AE, Record 11-20 (6-10), NET 250+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-2 loss at Maryland; 5-8 loss at Iowa). Destroyed by a fairly bad Maryland team.
Conference (5-11, 0-1 loss at Vermont): Competitive in game 2 at Vermont, but lost. Beaten at Maine in game 13 to fall to 4-9. Won at NJIT in game 15. Lost at home by 1 to Binghamton to finish the conference season at 6-10.
Players and Coach: Johnson and Brown are their best players. Tiny little team that plays super uptempo.

Delaware State. Will anyone beat Norfolk State.
Prediction: 3rd MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 6 seed. 1st Round against 3 seed South Carolina State. Eliminated by Howard in the MEAC final.
Stats (3/7): 6th MEAC, Record 13-17 (6-8), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-7 loss at Wake Forest; 6-8 win neutral Grambling). Lost by 20 at Wake Forest on the road. Won a close game with Grambling.
Conference (no games seen): Lost to Maryland Eastern Shore to finish the season at 6-8.
Players and Coach: Robinson, a guard, is their best player and scorer, averaging 18. Muniz also can score.

Navy. Have kind of rallied at the end of the year.
Prediction: 7th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. 7 seed. First game against 10 seed Loyola Maryland. They are going go have to beat Colgate in their third upset to get the AUTOBID. Beat Loyola Maryland. Eliminated by Boston University in the Patriot Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 7th Patriot, Record 12-17 (8-10), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 loss home Temple). Struggled early against Temple, and slowly reeled them in, almost pulling off the win.
Conference (7-9, 3-2 win home Army; 8-12, 4-5 at Colgate; 8-14, 4-7 loss at Army): Nice close win against Army in game 6. Crushed at Colgate in game 10. Beaten at Army in game 12. Road win at Loyola Maryland in game 15. Beat Lafayette at home in game 17. Won at American in their last game to finish 8-10 in conference.
Players and Coach: VERY undersized, will struggle to guard anyone big. A small guard, Benigni, is their big scorer. But very well coached and as you might expect disciplined. The kind of team that can pull the upset against all odds. But it will almost always be an upset, even in their own conference, I think.

Eastern Michigan.
Prediction: 11th MAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. DNQ 8 team MAC tourney.
Stats (3/8): 10th MAC, Record 13-18 (6-12), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-4 at Michigan State). Kind of stayed in the game, mostly, at Michigan State.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Buffalo in game 13 in a bad loss for a 10 seed. Beat Western Michigan at home to stay alive for the 8 team MAC tourney. Beaten at Central Michigan to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach: Acuff is their big scorer, a guard.

UL Monroe.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 13th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% Chance. Beat Coastal Carolina for the 12 seed. Eliminated by Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt 1st Round.
Stats (3/1): 12th Sun Belt, Record 11-18 (6-12), NET 300+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250 (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at South Alabama in game 18 to finish the conference season 6-12.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet, based on KenPom).

Coastal Carolina. The one game I saw does not match with their stats.
Prediction: 12th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Dangerous for a 13 seed based on the Wichita State game. Play the 12 seed UL Monroe in game 1. Eliminated by Louisiana in the 2nd Round of the Sun Belt Tourney.
Stats (3/1): 13th Sun Belt, Record 8-21 (5-13), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 loss home Wichita State). Really hung in the game with a pretty big Wichita State team.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Arkansas State in game 17. Beaten at home by James Madison in their last game to finish 5-13 in conference.
Players and Coach: They have one big and a bunch of under talented guards but they played a heckuva game against Wichita State.

Campbell. Very average Coastal team.
Prediction: 10th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. 9 seed, plays the 8 Monmouth in Rount 1. Eliminated by Monmouth in Round 1 of the Coastal tourney.
Stats (3/2): 9th CAA, Record 14-17 (8-10), NET 250+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (9-10, 3-3 home Elon): Nice controlling home win against Elon in game 7. Lost to last place Hampton at home in game 15 for some reason. Beaten at Charleston in game 17. Beat Northg Caroilina A&T to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach. Dell’Orso, a long guard, is their scoring leader.

Texas Southern. Will do well in the SWAC, but I don’t think they win the conference.
Prediction: 2nd SWAC; No Tournament..
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 24% Chance. 3 seed versus 6 seed Jackson State. They won the SWAC tourney the past 2 years so expect performance. Eliminated by Grambling in the SWAC final.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd SWAC, Record 14-15 (12-6), NET 250+ (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 loss at Virginia; 0-6 loss at Purdue; 0-8 win neutral Howard). Controlled by Virginia, but outrebounded them. Blown out by Creighton, but who wouldn’t be. Super tough early season schedule. Beat 4-7 Howard for their first win.
Conference (5-11, 3-2 loss at Jackson State; 5-12, 3-3 win home Alabama A&M): Close loss at Jackson State in game 6. Really controlled Alabama A&M in game 7. Beat Prairie View A&M to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: PJ Henry and Grayston Carter are their best players. They have size for the SWAC.

Idaho.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% Chance. 9 seed. 2 of their 5 conference wins are against Sacramento State. Eliminated by Sacramento State in the Big Sky 1st Round.
Stats (3/4): 9th Big Sky, Record 11-20 (5-13), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Montana State in game 16. Beaten at Portland State to finish 5-13.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

310-319

Holy Cross. Doing much better than I thought they would in conference.
Prediction: 8th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% chance. 9 seed. First game at the 8 seed Army in the tourney. 6 wins in conference! Will need a 1st round win and 3 upsets. Beat Army. Eliminated by Colgate in the Patriot quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 9th Patriot, Record 9-22 (6-12), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 WIN at Georgetown, 2-4 loss at St. John’s). Played well while undersized and underathleted against a pretty bad Georgetown team, and kept reeling them in, and then took them out. Nice win, but I think it was more Georgetown being terrible than Holy Cross being any good. Destroyed by an average St. John’s team a few weeks later.
Conference (5-15, 2-5 loss home Lehigh; 5-16, 2-6 win home Boston University): Loss in game 8 home with a very average Patriot team in Lehigh. Won game 9 home against Boston University. Beaten at home by Colgate in game 17. Beaten at Boston University to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach: No athletic bigs. Really small overall. Paulson, their coach, is in his first year at Holy Cross.

Elon. Struggling in the Coastal.
Prediction: 11th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Home against Monmouth in their last game. Seed will be from 9-12. Right now they are the 11th team in the CAA meaning they need to win on day 1 plus 4 upsets to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Hampton in the 1st Round of the Coastal tourney.
Stats (2/29): 11th CAA, Record 13-17 (6-11), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (6-5 loss at South Carolina). Blown out at South Carolina, who was missing some players.
Conference (8-11, 1-5 loss at Campbell; 9-13, 2-7 WIN at North Carolina A&T; 10-14, 3-8 at Towson): Beaten at Campbell in game 7. Beat North Carolina A&T on the road in game 10. Beaten by 20 at Towson in game 12 to fall to 3-9. Lost at Northeastern in game 15. Beat William & Mary at home in game 17.
Players and Coach: They look undersized. Simpkins is their best scorer but South Carolina shut him down totally. LA Pratt, a guard, is also a good scorer.

Sacramento State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 10th Big Sky; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. Even in the relatively even Big Sky, almost no chance. Eliminated by Montana State in the Big Sky semifinals.
Stats (3/4): 10th Big Sky, Record 8-23 (4-14), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Eastern Washington to finish the conference at 4-14.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

IUPUI.
Prediction: 10th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. 10 seed, and not a lot happening. Eliminated in the Horizon 1st Round by Cleveland State.
Stats (3/2): 10th Horizon, Record 6-25 (2-18), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-7 loss at Minnesota). Blown out at Minnesota, with not a lot of anything.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at home to Milwaukee in game 19. Lost at Cleveland State to finish the conference at 2-18.
Players and Coach: Monroe is their best player.

NJIT.
Prediction: 9th America East; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ America East Tournament.
Stats (2/22): 9th AE, Record 7-18 (3-10), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-6 loss at Wake Forest). Kind of in the game with a bad Wake Forest.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at New Hampshire in game 13. Eliminated by UMBC by 19 at home in game 15.
Players and Coach: Apparently have a very good guard, but even in the America East that doesn’t mean much.

Southern. Decent SWAC team.
Prediction: 3rd SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 40% OUT. They were the conference favorite, but are now in the 4/5 game. Their big win over Mississippi State really helps their NET ratings. Eliminated by Bethune Cookman in the SWAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd SWAC, Record 18-13 (12-6), NET 200+ (1-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-5 loss at Marquette; 1-6 WIN at Mississippi State). Dominated by Marquette. Stayed in the game against Mississippi State, trailing the whole way but then rallied big time and took them out in a major upset. Showed a lot of competitiveness. Look small, but great scrappy win at Mississippi State.
Conference (9-8, 3-1 loss at Grambling State; 12-9, 6-2 WIN at Jackson State): Beaten at Grambling in game 5 in a not very good conference loss. Nice conference leadership win at Jackson State to get to 7-2 in game 9. Beaten at home by Grambling in game 14. Beaten at home by Bethune Cookman for their 3rd straight loss. Beaten at Alabama A&M to finish 12-6 in conference.
Players and Coach: Very non-descript team from a talent perspective. Guard driven team. Johnson is their new head coach, but very experienced.

Jackson State. Held in there with Georgetown.
Prediction: 4th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Got the 3 seed somehow. Eliminated by Teas Southern in the SWAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd SWAC, Record 15-16 (11-7), NET 250+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-5 loss at Georgetown; 3-7 neutral North Carolina A&T). Almost beat what is a terrible Georgetown team, so they must be OK. Beat a bad North Carolina A&T and Howard.
Conference (4-9, 0-0 win home Alcorn State; 7-10, 3-1 win home Texas Southern; 8-12, 4-3 LOSS home Grambling; 8-13, 4-4 LOSS home Southern): Nice win in their conference opener at home agrainst Alcorn State. Another nice conference win home against Texas Southern in game 5. Beaten by Grambling and Southern at home in games 8 and 9. Beat one win Mississippi State by one point to get to 11-7 in conference and the 3 seed.
Players and Coach: Chase Adams, the point guard, is their leader and not lacking in confidence. Mo Williams is their head coach.

Alabama State.
Prediction: 5th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% Chance. Beat the 1 seed to get into the tournament to play the 1 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 8th SWAC, Record 13-18 (8-10), NET 300+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (10-10, 5-2 LOSS home Bethune Cookman): Controlled by Bethune Cookman at home. Beat 1 seed Grambling to finish the conference at 8-10 and make the SWAC tourney.
Players and Coach: Madlock is their leader at guard.

Alcorn State. On a nine game winning streak.
Prediction: 6th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 16% Chance. They came from nowhere to get to the 2 seed. Play 7 seed Alabama A&M in the SWAC quarterfinals. Eliminated by Alabama A&M in the SWAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): 2nd SWAC, Record 14-17 (13-5), NET 250+ (0-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-3 loss at Michigan State; 1-6 loss at Clemson; 1-8 loss at Maryland). Looked less than competitive against Michigan State in a very hard game to judge. Then lost by 20+ to Clemson and Maryland. But the SWAC is SO bad, so we will see hard to judge.
Conference (1-12, 0-0 loss at Jackson State; 4-15, 3-3 WIN at Bethune Cookman; 5-17, 4-5 WIN at Arkansas Pine Bluff): Conference opening loss at Jackson State. Nice wins at Bethune Cookman and Arkansas Pine Bluff in game 7. Beat Arkansas Pine Bluff at home to finish the season on a major winning streak at 13-5 in conference.
Players and Coach: Kendall is their leading scorer and rebounder at forward.

Prairie View A&M.
Prediction: 7th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team SWAC Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 10th SWAC, Record 10-21 (5-13), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (5-7 at Texas A&M). Undersized, not competitive with Texas A&M on the road.
Conference (9-14, 4-6 WIN at Florida A&M): Road win at Florida A&M in game 11. Beaten at Texas Southern to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Smith is their leading scorer. Coach is also named Smith.

320-329

Texas A&M Commerce.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th Southland; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. Conference Tourney: 7 seed. Play 6 seed Northwestern State, who they just beat, in Round 1 of the Southland tourney. Eliminated in the Southland 2nd Round by Nicholls.
Stats (3/6): 7th SL, Record 12-19 (6-12), NET 300+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Northwestern State at home to finish the conference at 6-12.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

UT Rio Grande Valley.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 11th WAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team WAC Tourney.
Stats (2/29): 11th WAC, Record 6-22 (2-15), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 130), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Grand Canyon in game 17 to fall to 2-15.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

North Carolina A&T. Not a lot of talent on this team and will finish at or near the bottom in the Coastal.
Prediction: 12th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. 12 seed with game 1 against William & Mary in the 1st round. 5 wins in the Coastal, but all against the bottom half. Eliminated by William & Mary in the CAA 1st Round.
Stats (3/2): 12th CAA, Record 7-23 (5-12), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-9 loss neutral Jackson State): In the game with Jackson State, but lost.
Conference (3-13, 1-2 at Hampton; 7-15, 5-4 LOSS home Elon; 7-16, 5-5 loss at Charleston): Very close game at Hampton. Beaten by Elon at home in game 10 to drop to .500. Beaten at Charleston in game 11. Beaten at Stony Brook in game 15. Lost their eighth straight home against Towson in game 17. Beaten at Campbell to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Glasper is their scorer, fast and can shoot the three.

Incarnate Word.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team Southland Tourney
Stats (3/6): 10th SL, Record 8-23 (3-15), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Texas A&M – Corpus Christi to finish the conference at 3-15.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Eastern Illinois. Mid-pack OVC team.
Prediction: 7th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tournament Bid Steal Watch: 7% STEAL. They have clinched the 7 seed. Decent players, could win the OVC as an extreme dark horse. They will probably play SIU Edwardsville who they just beat in the 6-7 game. Then if they win they have to play the 3, then the 2, then the 1. Eliminated by SIU Edwardsville in the 1st round of the OVC tourney.
Stats (2/29): 7th OVC, Record 14-17 (8-10), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (6-8, 0-1 win at UT Martin). Led all the way at UT Martin which is a good conference win. Beat SIU Edwardsville in an upset in game 17 at home. Beaten at Western Illinois in game 18 to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach: Jacobi, a forward, is their leading rebounder and a decent scorer, but also their largest player at 6’7″ after some injuries. Sawyer, a scoring guard, had 18 against UT Martin.

Southern Indiana. They have two games left against the bottom of the conference out of 3 games.
Prediction: 8th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. In the 1st round of the OVC tourney against 5 seed Tennessee State. Eliminated by Tennessee State in the OVC 1st Round.
Stats (2/29): T 8th OVC, Record 8-22 (5-12), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 loss at Michigan State; 1-5 loss at Duke). Playing Michigan State and Duke in the games I saw, so hard to judge. Looked FAR better against Duke and so I’m raising my prediction for them.
Conference (5-15, 2-5 loss home Western Illinois): Beaten at home in game 8 by Western Illinois. Season making win at Morehead State in game 15. Beaten at home by Lindenwood in game 17. Lost at home to Southeast Missouri State in game 18 to finish the conference at 5-13.
Players and Coach: Look severely undertalented. One good athletic guard and a bunch of new players.

William & Mary. Won HUGE last game of the year home with Hamption for the 13 seed!
Prediction: 13th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Hung on for the 13 seed, with their first game against 12 seed North Carolina A&T. Will need 5 upsets, to get the AUTOBID. Eliminated by Towson in the 2nd Round of the Coastal tourney.
Stats (3/2): 13th CAA, Record 9-22 (4-14), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (8-13, 3-5 loss home Delaware; 8-18, 3-10 loss at Charleston): Blown out by 30 at home by Delaware. Beaten by 10 at Charleston in a game they played well. Beaten at home by UNC Wilmington in game 15. Lost their 9th straight at Elon in game 17. Beat Hampton at home for the 13 seed and a 4-14 record in conference.
Players and Coach: Didn’t see anything to like. They have a point guard who is servicable.

South Carolina State. The MEAC will come down to whether anyone can beat Norfolk State.
Prediction: 4th MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 3 seed. Play 6 seed Delaware State in the MEAC Quarterfinals next. Eliminated by Delaware State in the MEAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/7): T 2nd MEAC, Record 14-17 (9-5), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-8 loss at Pitt). Did not show a lot at Pitt.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at North Carolina Central to finish the conference at 9-5.
Players and Coach:

New Orleans. Small even for the Southland.
Prediction: 8th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. 8 seed. Play 5 seed Southeast Louisiana in the 1st Round of the Southland tourney. Hard to climb out of last in their final four games. Will need a major string of upsets. Eliminated by Lamar in the the Southland 2nd Round.
Stats (3/6): T 8th SL, Record 9-22 (4-14), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-3 loss at Minnesota). In the game early against Minnesota, then got totally blown out.
Conference (no games seen): Crushed by McNeese at home to finish the season at 4-14.
Players and Coach: They have two decent guards, but not a lot else. Huge foul trouble against Minnesota and could be better in games where that doesn’t happen.

Bethune Cookman. Not a real threat to even a marginal power 5 team.
Prediction: 8th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. 5 seed. Play 4 seed Southern in the SWAC quarterfinals. They are on a 3 game win streak. Middle of the pack SWAC could pull some upsets. Eliminated by Grambling in the SWAC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): T 5th SWAC, Record 16-15 (11-7), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Minnesota). Did not look competitive, but started to come back kind of against Minnesota in game one.
Conference (9-10, 4-2 LOSS home Alcorn State; 9-11, 4-3 WIN at Alabama State): Beaten at home in game 7 by Alcorn State. Win at Alabama State to get to 5-3 in the SWAC in game 8. Won at Southern in game 16. Won at Florida A&M to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach:

330-339

Arkansas Pine Bluff. Not their year.
Prediction: 9th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. DNQ 8 Team SWAC tourney.
Stats (3/9): 9th SWAC, Record 13-18 (8-10), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-2 loss at Minnesota; 4-6 loss at UConn). They are playing a very tough schedule and I don’t think their record says much.
Conference (10-12, 5-4 LOSS home Alcorn State): Handled by Alcorn State at home. Beaten at Alcorn State to finish the conference at 8-10 and miss the SWAC tourney.
Players and Coach: In the SWAC, is having 2 legitimate scoring guards enough to win the conference?

Le Moyne. This is Le Moyne’s first game in Division 1 basketball.
Prediction: 5th NEC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. Conference Tourney: 4 seed. Play 5 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the 1st round. Eliminated by Merrimack in the NEC semifinals.
Stats (3/2): T 4th NEC, Record 14-16 (9-7), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Georgetown; 0-1 loss at Villanova). Not remotely competitive against a pretty bad for a major conference Georgetown team. But had the lead early against Villanova.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at LIU in game 13. Beat St. Francis (PA) in their last game on the road to get to 9-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: They are really lacking in talent I think. Undersized and will need to work to get wins in the Northeast. Cleary, a forward, probably their best athlete.

Merrimack. Choked to give up the 1 seed.
Prediction: 1st NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NET over 150.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% IN. They were holding court as the 1 seed BIG TIME, winning 10 straight wins in the conference. Then they lost their last game at Sacred Heart, the 3 seed, to fall to the 2 seed. Central Connecticut is their AUTOBID rival in the Northeast, and the tournament likely will come down to that game. A few other teams could pull upsets. Eliminated by Wagner in the Northeast final.
Stats (3/2): T 1st NEC, Record 19-11 (13-3), NET 150+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT (Central Connecticut State 16 Seed AUTOBID)
Non-Conference (2-1 loss at Ohio State; 3-4 loss at Georgetown). Merrimack held their own with Ohio State for a while, nearly beat Georgetown on the road, and they won the NEC last year.
Conference (no games seen): Beat St. Francis (PA) at home in game 14. Won at Fairleigh Dickinston in game 17. Lost their last game at 3 seed Sacred Heart to fall to the 2 seed and 13-3 in the conference.
Players and Coach: Derkack, their leading scorer, is a gamer. I don’t know who they lost to because they looked good in these two games.

Manhattan. They don’t compete too well even in the MAAC.
Prediction: 10th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% Chance. 10 seed. Iona in game 1. Will need 4 upsets. Eliminated by Iona in the MAAC 1st Round.
Stats (3/9): 10th MAAC, Record 7-22 (4-16), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-1 loss at UConn). Blown out at UConn in a game that was hard to evaluate.
Conference (5-17, 2-11 loss at Iona): Controlled at Iona in the only game I saw. Lost at home to Marist in game 16. Won at Siena for their 3rd MAAC win in game 17. Beaten at home by Canisius to finish the conference at 4-16.
Players and Coach: They looked REALLY out of control and not well managed on the floor.

Norfolk State. They are now looking like the 1 seed and have to survive the toournament.
Prediction: 1st MEAC; No Tourney.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. NET 200+
Conference Tournament Outlook: 65% IN. 1 seed. Tough semifinals in this tournament it appears. Norfolk State will be the favorite. Eliminated by Howard in the MEAC semis.
Stats (3/7): 1st MEAC, Record 21-10 (11-3), NET 200+ (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi 16 Seed
Non-Conference (9-6 loss at Tennessee). They looked very undersized against Tennessee, and were absolutely blown out.
Conference (16-9, 6-2 win home NC Central; 23-5, 12-1 home Howard): In a real close game against 2 seed North Carolina Central, and won. Won at Coppin State in game 10 and at home against Morgan State in game 11. Lost at Delaware State in game 12. Won home against Maryland-Eastern Shore in game 13. Beat Howard in a separation game at home game 14 by 18 points.
Players and Coach: Thomas, a guard, is averaging 18 a game at mid-season.

Tennessee Tech.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ OVC 8 team tournament.
Stats (3/2): T 8th OVC, Record 10-21 (5-13), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at UT Martin in game 17. Beaten at Little Rock in game 18 to finish at 5-13, and eliminated in this game.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Morgan State. They have 4 road wins in conference! Could win the MEAC.
Prediction: 5th MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% Chance. Got the 5 seed by losing 4 straight before winning their last 2. Eliminated by Howard in the MEAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/7): 5th MEAC, Record 11-19 (7-7), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-10 loss at Virginia). Announcers talking about holiday desserts by halfway through the 2nd half at Virginia.
Conference (no games seen): Beat Coppin State at home to finish the conference season at 7-7.
Players and Coach: Undersized with a couple of lean forwards as their bigs.

Hampton. Lost last game at William and Mary for the 13 seed.
Prediction: 14th Coastal; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. 14 seed. Play 11 seed Elon in the 1st round of the Coastal tourney. Showing signs of life right at the end. Eliminated by Delaware 2nd Round Coastal Tournament.
Stats (3/2): 14th CAA, Record 8-23 (3-15), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (4-8 loss at Drexel; 4-18 win neutral Howard). Not competitive at Drexel, losing by 30. Beat Howard on a neutral floor.
Conference (4-12, 0-4 loss home North Carolina A&T): Lost at home to fellow bottom dweller North Carolina A&T. Hampton got their first 3 conference wins against Campbell and Towson and Monmouth in games 14 and 15 and 17. 3-14! William & Mary beat them for the 13 seed in their last game to finish 3-15.
Players and Coach: Deng is a good scorer for them. Nesbitt their leader.

Buffalo. Doubled their total wins in the past 2 weeks!
Prediction: 12th MAC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. ELIMINATED. DNQ FOR THE 8 TEAM MAC TOURNEY.
Stats (3/9): 12th MAC, Record 4-27 (2-16), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-7 loss at Butler). I don’t know what happened in their first eight games, but against Butler they looked like a good team. They hung in the game at Butler.
Conference (2-13, 1-2 loss at Akron; 2-18, 1-7 LOSS home Kent State): Controlled in game 4 at Akron. Lost by 30 at home against a very middling Kent State team. Beat Eastern Michigan for their 2nd MAC win! Eliminated from the post-season tournament at Kent State in game 15. Beaten at home by Ohio in game 17. Beaten at home by Northern Illinois to finish the conference at 2-16.
Players and Coach: Chatman is their leading scorer at forward. Not a very good team, especially in the MAC.

Dartmouth. Pretty typical bad Ivy League team.
Prediction: 8th Ivy; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. ELIMINATED. DNQ 4 Team Ivy Tournament. Clinched 8th place.
Stats (3/5): 8th Ivy, Record 6-21 (2-12), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 139), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Duke). Not competitive against Duke.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by 7 seed Penn in game 10 to fall to 1-9. Beaten at Yale in game 12. Beat Harvard at home to finish 2-12 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not gonna win usually against good teams.

340-349

Alabama A&M. Up to .500 in the SWAC.
Prediction: 10th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. 7 seed. SWAC quarterfinal with Alcorn State. Eliminated by Texas Southern in the SWAC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th SWAC, Record 10-21 (9-9), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-6 loss at Georgia Tech). Not a good game at Georgia Tech.
Conference (3-15, 2-3 loss at Texas Southern): 20 point loss at Texas Southern in game 6. Beat Southern at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Undersized even in the SWAC.

UC Riverside. I thought they would struggle but they are coming on hard.
Prediction: 10th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 4% Chance. Won 7 of their last 9 to get to the 5 seed. 1st Round Big West tourney against Cal State Bakersfield. Eliminated by Long Beach State in the Big West quarterfinals.
Stats (3/9): T 5th BW, Record 15-17 (10-10), NET 200+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-2 loss at North Carolina). Showed almost nothing in a very tough game against North Carolina. Slaughtered.
Conference (no games seen): Won at UC Santa Barbara to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach:

Cal Poly.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 11th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team Big West Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 11th BW, Record 4-28 (0-20), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at UC Santa Barbara to fall to 0-17 in conference. Beaten at UC San Diego to finish 0-20 in conference.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Long Island University.
Prediction: 7th NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 6% Chance. They have clinched the 7 seed. Their four wins are against the bottom of the conference, so unlikely they get the AUTOBID. 7 seed has to play either Central Connecticut or Merrimack in the quarterfinals. Eliminated by Merrimack in the NEC Quarterfinals.
Stats (2/29): 7th NEC, Record 7-20 (6-9), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (7-19, 6-8 at Wagner): Beaten at home by Le Moyne in game 14. Beaten on the road in game 15 at Wagner in a game that may seal their fate as 7 seed. Beaten at Central Connecticut in game 16.
Players and Coach: Acker is their leader.

St. Francis (PA). Hard to judge the team in conference in this game but it won’t be a good year.
Prediction: 8th NEC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% Chance. Cannot move up from the 8 seed. Need to win home against Le Moyne or have Stonehill lose to Central Connecticut for them to qualify for the 8 team NEC tournament. Eliminated by Central Connecticut State in the NEC Quarterfinals.
Stats (3/2): 8th NEC, Record 8-21 (3-13), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-3 loss at Penn State). Totally outmatched against a decent Penn State team. We’re already 0-3.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at Merrimack in game 14. Beaten at home by Le Moyne in their last game to fall to 3-13 in conference.
Players and Coach:

Old Dominion.
Prediction: 14th Sun Belt; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Clinched the 14 seed, meaning round 1 against the 11 seed Texas State. 2 wins against Marshall and 1 against Georgia Southern and that is it in conference. Only 2 wins against Marshall, strangely, so unless they play them 5 times in the tourney the AUTOBID is unlikely. Eliminated by Texas State in the 1st Round of the Sun Belt.
Stats (3/1): 14th Sun Belt, Record 7-24 (3-15), NET 250+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 250+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-6 loss neutral TCU; 4-7 loss neutral Massachusetts). Did not look competitive with TCU or Massachusetts.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Appalachian State to fall to 2-13 in conference. Beaten at Appalachian State in game 17 by 25. Beaten at Georgia Southern by 23 in their last game to finish 3-15 in conference.
Players and Coach: Old Dominion is very small, starting basicallly five guards.

Southeast Missouri State.
Prediction: 10th OVC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team OVC Tourney.
Stats (3/2): 10th OVC, Record 9-22 (4-14), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 loss at Butler). Not remotely competitive with Butler, and I saw nothing to like.
Conference (no games seen): Eliminated at Morehead State in game 17. Beat Southern Indiana on the road to finish the conference at 4-14.
Players and Coach:

Army. Probably disciplined enough to maybe win some games in the Patriot.
Prediction: 9th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 7% Chance. They won 4 in a row to get out of the bottom, but still sitting in 8th. In the 8/9 game against Holy Cross. At least 3 upsets gets them the AUTOBID. Eliminated in the Patriot 1st round by Holy Cross.
Stats (3/2): T 8th Patriot, Record 10-21 (6-12), NET 300+ (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 loss at Indiana). Almost beat Indiana, until Indiana put it away at the end.
Conference (5-13, 1-4 loss at Navy; 7-17, 3-8 home Navy): Lost very close one at Navy. Beaten by 30 at Lehigh in game 15. Beaten at home by American in game 17. Lost their last game at last place Loyola Marymount to finish 6-12 in conference.
Players and Coach: Very undermanned and undertalented team. Scoggins is their leader.

Loyola Maryland. All 4 of their conference wins were on the road.
Prediction: 10th Patriot; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. Under .500.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 2% Chance. They have clinched the 10 seed, and will play the 7 seed in Round 1. Eliminated in Patriot 1st Round by Navy.
Stats (2/28): 10th Patriot, Record 6-24 (4-13), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (3-14, 1-3 loss home American): Played American close at home in game 5. Beaten easily at home by Bucknell in game 17.
Players and Coach: Perry, a guard, is averaging 20 a game in the Patriot.

Lindenwood.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 11th OVC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. DNQ 8 Team OVC Tourney.
Stats (3/2): 11th OVC, Record 9-22 (3-15), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Won at Southern Indiana for their 3rd conference win in game 17. Beaten at Morehead State in game 18 to finish the conference at 3-15.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

350-359

Central Arkansas.
Prediction: 11th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 10 Team Atlantic Sun Tournament.
Stats (2/22): 11th ASun, Record 9-21 (5-9), NET 300+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (3-11 at Missouri). Blown out at Missouri.
Conference (no games seen): Lost game 14 at Bellarmine to fall to 5-9. Beaten at home by North Alabama to finish the Atlantic Sun 5-11.
Players and Coach: They shoot lots of threes. Not a lot of depth or talent.

Bellarmine. I thought they were pretty solid, but not proving me out.
Prediction: 12th Atlantic Sun; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. DNQ 10 team Atlantic Sun Tourney.
Stats (3/1): 12th ASun, Record 8-23 (4-12), NET 300+ (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Washington). Played Washington well.
Conference (no games seen): Got their 3rd conference win home against Central Arkansas in game 13. Beaten at Lipscomb in game 15. Beaten at Austin Peay in game 16 to finish 4-12.
Players and Coach: Lacking the talent to win against power conference teams, and also lacking the talent to win in the Atlantic Sun apparently.

Stonehill. I don’t think this team is very good.
Prediction: 9th NEC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. Not eligible for the post-season. DNQ 8 team NEC tourney.
Stats (3/2): 9th NEC, Record 4-27 (2-14), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-1 loss at UConn; 2-11 loss at Miami; 2-12 loss at Rutgers). Not competitive against UConn or Miami, at all. In the game almost all the way at Rutgers and barely lost. Managed to beat Army which is a good win at this level.
Conference (2-17, 0-4 loss home Fairleigh Dickinson): Stayed in the game with Fairleigh Dickinson at home. Beaten at home by Sacred Heart in game 15. Beaten at Central Connecticut in their last game to finish 2-14 in conference and not qualify for the 8 team NEC tourney.
Players and Coach: Zegarowski is their leading scorer, but this team doesn’t have a lot.

VMI.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 10th Southern; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. They have 1 conference win all year. Eliminated by East Tennessee State in 1st Round Southern tourney.
Stats (3/2): 10th Southern, Record 4-27 (1-17), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at UNC Greensboro in game 17. Beaten at home by Wofford to finish the conference 1-17.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Pacific. In the wrong conference, it seems to me.
Prediction: 9th WCC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0.1% Chance. Eliminated from at-large bid chance (under .500). Conference tourney: May not win another game all year. They would have to win 5 upset games in the WCC tournament to get the AUTOBID which might be the most improbable run this year. Eliminated by Pepperdine in the 1st Round of the WCC Tourney.
Stats (2/21): 9th WCC, Record 6-23 (0-14), NET 300+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 146), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (6-14, 0-5 loss at Saint Mary’s; 6-18, 0-9 home Saint Mary’s): Beaten by 40 twice with Saint Mary’s on national TV.
Players and Coach. Nothing to like in the game I saw.’

Siena.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 11th MAAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 3% chance. 11 seed. 1st Round against the 6 seed. They will need four upsets to make the tourney. Eliminated by Niagara in the MAAC 1st Round.
Stats (3/9): 11th MAAC, Record 4-27 (3-17), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at home by Manhattan in game 17 to fall into a tie for 10th. Beaten at Iona to finish the conference at 3-15.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Florida A&M.
Prediction: 11th SWAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 Team SWAC tourney.
Stats (3/9): 11th SWAC, Record 6-23 (4-14), NET 300+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Creighton; 2-5 loss at Iowa). Totally overmatched against Creighton and Iowa.
Conference (4-17, 2-8 LOSS home Prairie View A&M): Beaten in a close game in game 11 by Prairie View A&M. Beaten at home by Bethune Cookman to finish the conference at 4-14.
Players and Coach: Lots of small, quick players so maybe they outperform in the SWAC, but hard to see it in the game against Creighton. Speer is their leading scorer. And they have a huge big in Grant. McCollum is their coach – seems experienced and calm.

Maryland Eastern Shore.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 7th MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 5% Chance. 7 seed. Play 2 seed North Carolina Central in the 1st Round of the MEAC tourney. Eliminated by North Carolina Central in the MEAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/7): 7th MEAC, Record 9-19 (4-10), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Delaware State at home fo finish the conference at 4-10.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Northwestern State.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 9th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% Chance. 6 seed. Play 7 seed Texas A&M Commerce, who they just lost to, in the 1st Round of the Southland tourney. They have almost all their wins against teams below them in the Southland. Eliminated by Texas A&M Commerce in the Southland 1st Round.
Stats (3/6): 6th SL, Record 9-22 (7-11), NET 300+ (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 250+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Texas A&M Commerce to finish the season at 7-11.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

Houston Christian.
Prediction: 10th Southland; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 team Southland Tourney.
Stats (3/6): T 8th SL, Record 6-23 (4-14), NET 350+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 350+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (2-8 loss at Texas A&M). Really struggled early in the year. Very hard to play Texas A&M, but still.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at Lamar to finish 4-14 in conference.
Players and Coach: A pretty chaotic disorganized team. Close to the bottom of D-1. Will struggle, even in the Southland, but they do have some workers so might finish higher.

360-362

Coppin State. Really struggling to get wins.
Prediction: 8th MEAC; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Play one seed Norfolk State in the MEAC quarterfinals. 3 upsets from being the worst team ever in the NCAA tournament! Eliminated by Norfolk State in the MEAC quarterfinals.
Stats (3/7): 8th MEAC, Record 2-26 (1-13), NET 300s (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300s (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-10 loss at Georgetown; 1-12 loss at Maryland). Stayed within 20 at Georgetown, but that doesn’t say much.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at Morgan State to finish the conference at 1-13.
Players and Coach: Winston, a fairly small inside player, scored 37 in one game and is their best player.

Detroit Mercy.
Prediction: 11th Horizon; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 1% Chance. Beat 10 Seed IUPUI for their only conference win! Last two at the 1 and 3 seeds so 1-30 is gonna be their record going into the conference tourney. Eliminated by Milwaukee in the Horizon 1st Round.
Stats (3/2): 11th Horizon, Record 1-30 (1-19), NET 300+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-12 loss at NC State). Not competitive with NC State.
Conference (no games seen): Lost at home to Wright State in game 18. Lost at Youngstown State in game 19. Beaten at Oakland to finish the season at 1-19.
Players and Coach: Tankersly is one of their leading scorers.

Mississippi Valley State. Worst team in America?
Prediction: 12th SWAC; No Tournament.
Bid Steal Watch: 0% Chance. DNQ 8 TEAM SWAC Tourney.
Stats (3/9): 12th SWAC, Record 1-30 (1-17), NET 300+ (0-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 300+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 loss at Connecticut). Did not look good at UConn.
Conference (0-24, 0-11 at Alabama A&M): I actually saw this team! Losing by 15 to Alabama A&M, who is NOT good, tells me a lot. Beaten at Jackson State by 1 point to finish the conference at 1-17.
Players and Coach: I watched them commit 4 bad turnovers in a row, which is enough.