Matt’s 2024 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tourney Projections

My complete NCAA tournament projection (currently a work in progress will be much further along by the end of the day – currently shows just projected seeds – but you can look up team details here):

POWER SIX CONFERENCES REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Gray font means CBI Lock.
Yellow font means CBI Bubble.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

MULTIPLE NCAA BID CONFERENCES REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS (6 AUTOBIDS).

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Listed Seed Number means clinched conference tournament seed

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Yellow font means CBI.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

SINGLE BID CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON PREDICTED STANDINGS (20 AUTOBIDS).

BOLD ALLCAPS means predicted NCAA Tournament Team.

Bold means predicted NIT Tournament Team.

Regular Italics means I have not seen this team at all yet.
Regular font means no post-season predicted.

Green font means NCAA Lock.
Pink font means NCAA Bubble.
Purple font means NIT Lock.
Orange font means NIT Bubble.
Yellow font means CBI.
Red font means eliminated from the post-season.

NCAA TOURNAMENT POST-SEASON PREDICTOR AND ELIMINATOR

March 19/20 First Four:

Midwest (10) Virginia v (10) Colorado State:

Everyone likes to hate on Virginia, but in conference they only lost to the top 2 once (though they only played them once each) and to 5 other decent teams mostly on the road. In their non-conference they beat Tarleton State, Florida, West Virginia, and Texas A&M, and they lost only to Wisconsin and Memphis.

Colorado State had the worst conference regular season of the top 7, losing once to all of them and twice to Nevada, and also to Wyoming. But Colorado State had maybe the best non-conference in the country for who they are, beating Louisiana Tech, BC, Creighton, Colorado and Washington, and losing only to St. Mary’s.

West (16) Howard (AUTO MEAC) v (16) Wagner (AUTO NEC): Wagner by 4. These 16/16 games are hard to predict, and I didn’t see Howard’s games to win their tourney, so I’m going with Wagner in maybe the worst all time game in the NCAA tourney. I did like how Wagner won the final.

Howard Stats: T 2nd MEAC, Record 18-16 (9-5), NET 273 (0-1 Quad 1), SoS 338.

Wagner Stats: 6th NEC, Record 16-15 (7-9), NET 290 (0-2 Quad 1), SoS 352

Howard. Howard beat Norfolk State on their 3rd try of the year in their game of the year in the MEAC tourney. Howard was tied for 2nd in conference, and lost twice to Norfolk State, and once to the 2, 4 and 5 seeds. Howard beat LaSalle and BU in their non-conference. They did not look competitive in the 4 games I saw. Lost two games in the HBCU classic in Vegas, and did not look good. In conference, every game I saw they got beaten. Beat 5 seed Morgan State, 1 seed Norfolk State, and 6 seed Delaware State to win the MEAC tourney!
Players and Coach: Henry is their leading scorer. I believe he is 26 and in his eighth year of NCAA eligiblity – WOW!

Wagner. Wagner came from absolutely nowhere, beating 3 seed Sacred Heart, 1 seed Central Connecticut and 2 seed Merrimack to win the Northeast Tourney. I had no reason to see this team as dangerous, but they won the tournament. Of Wagner’s 7 wins in conference, they beat the 2, the 4, and the 5 once. Wagner’s non-conference was utterly unremarkable. Not competitive against Providence in the game I saw.
Players and Coach: Council is their points and scoring leader. Some athletes. Hard to say how they will do based on the one game.

South (10) Boise State v (10) Colorado:

Boise State’s 5 conference losses included 3 at home to UNLV, Nevada, and Utah State, and only 2 on the road at Utah State and Colorado State. So this team travels well. In the non-conference, they did not beat anyone great (Saint Mary’s?), and lost to Clemson, Virginia Tech, Butler, and Washington State.

Colorado won 6 in a row at the end of the year finally playing like the team they can be, but all 6 were against terrible Pac 12 teams. They lost 6 road games in the Pac 12. Their non-conference was mixed too, beating Richmond and Miami, and losing to Florida State and Colorado State.

Midwest (16) Montana State (AUTO Big Sky) v (16) Grambling (AUTO SWAC): Montana State by 9. Low information environment. I saw Eastern Washington play live from the same confernce, and based on that information alone I think they beat Grambling, overcoming the fact that these kids have never been outside of Montana and Grambling will intimidate them.

Montana State Stats: 5th Big Sky, Record 17-17 (9-9), NET 208 (0-1 Quad 1), SoS 257, Lunardi OUT

Grambling Stats: 1st SWAC, Record 20-14 (14-4), NET 279 (0-6 Quad 1), SoS 316

Montana State. I saw this team live and was impressed for about the first 15 minutes of the game with Washington, but then they just wore down. Mid-pack 5 seed in the Big Sky (.500 in conference at 9-9), who came out of nowhere to win the Big Sky tournament. Montana State beat Cal in the non-conference but otherwise lost a lot to teams like Seattle U, Long Beach State, and Cal State/UC schools. In conference, it is a LOT like Weber State losing to everyone and beating everyone. Lost at Eastern Washington. Beat Weber State at home. Decent Big Sky team. Won the AUTOBID beating 4 seed Weber State, 10 seed Sacramento State and 3 seed Montana to win the Big Sky!
Players and Coach: Montana State starts four guards, but they can bring some size off the bench. If they play Purdue in the 1st round, Edey will have one million points.

Grambling. Have won 12 of their last 14. They were the 1 seed with a 14-4 record in the SWAC and won the conference tourney. Grambling also beat no one in non conference, and their 4 conference losses were to totally random teams. The only game I watched was a fairly close loss to Delaware State. But they did play and lose by a lot to a ton of teams. They will lose by a lot to Purdue if they get there.
Players and Coach: Coach Jackson seems capable.

East Region 1st Round:

(1) UConn (AUTO Big East) v (16) Stetson (AUTO Atlantic Sun): UConn by 30.

Upset Chance: 4%. Stetson had a good year, but are undersized and tiers down. They beat ONE major conference team UCF.

UConn Stats: 1st Big East, Record 31-3 (18-2), NET 2 (13-3 Quad 1), SoS 34.

Stetson Stats: 2nd ASun, Record 22-12 (11-5), NET 209 (1-2 Quad 1), SoS 267

UConn. Clearly the class of the Big East with both the 1st place regular season and the Big East tourney championship, and may be the class of the nation. Unlike every other major conference 1 seed, they won their tourney. They only lost ONE other game (at 4 seed Kansas by 4), with a tough schedule and 13 Quad 1 wins. They beat 7 seed Texas, 1 seed North Carolina, and 5 seed Gonzaga in the non-conference. They won almost everything. UConn was 3-1 against the other two Big East tourney teams, and lost only twice in conference (18-2!), at 3 seed Creighton by 19 and at non-tourney Seton Hall by 15. They were held to fairly close games in about 5 other conference games, but won them all. Then they beat Xavier, St. John’s and Marquette in the Big East tourney to win it.
Players and Coach: Forward Karaban, and the three guards Newton, Castle and Spencer lead a squad that is very talented. Hurley has already proven himself a top coach.

Stetson. Stetson won their only conference games with 1 seed Eastern Kentucky and 3 seed Lipscomb. 4 of their 5 conference losses were on the road at mid-table teams. Stetson beat a few good teams in the non-conference – Milwaukee, Charlotte, Central Michigan, and UCF. They lost at UNLV by 16 and at Houston by 31, and they also lost to Charlotte (1-1!), Chicago State, Omaha and Cincinnati. Stetson was the 2 seed in the Atlantic Sun tournament, and beat 8 seed Queens, 10 seed Jacksonville, and 4 seed Austin Peay to win the Atlantic Sun conference AUTOBID.
Players and Coach: I watched parts of the conference final, and they have a bunch of capable intelligent gamers. Won’t be an super easy out, even if they are undersized.

(8) Florida Atlantic v (9) Northwestern:

Florida Atlantic’s conference record was outstanding with only losses to the 1, 3, 4 and 5 seeds on the road. In the non-conference they beat Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Charleston, St. Bonaventure, and Arizona, losing only 3 games including one to Illinois.

Northwestern lost at Purdue and at Illinois, but also lost 5 other road games. In their non-conference they beat Dayton and Arizona State, and lost only to Chicago State.

(5) San Diego State v (12) UAB (AUTO American):

San Diego State lost on the road to all 6 of the other top 7 teams, and Boise State beat them at home. San Diego State had a great non-conference, beating Gonzaga, Stanford, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, Cal, Washington and Saint Mary’s, losing only at BYU and at Grand Canyon.

UAB lost once to the 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds, along with two bad losses in conference. In their non-conference they beat Maryland, Drake and UNC Asheville, and lost 5 challenging games.

(4) Auburn v (13) Yale (AUTO Ivy):

4 of Auburn’s 5 losses were to the top 6, and 4 of Auburn’s 5 losses were on the road. They only played Kentucky and Tennessee once and lost both games. Auburn had a decent non-conference, beating Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Indiana, USC and a bunch of good mid-majors.

Yale beat Colgate, Quinnipiac and Santa Clara.

(6) BYU v (11) Duquesne (AUTO A10):

BYU lost 6 of their 8 conference losses to excellent teams on the road. They didn’t play the toughest non-conference, but beat San Diego State, NC State and Arizona State, and lost only to Utah.

Duquesne won 4 in a row at the end to get up to the 6 seed. Most all of their losses are to the top 5 in conference. They beat Bradley, UC Irvine and Charleston, and lost to Nebraska, Princeton and Santa Clara in their non-conference. If they are hot will be a tough out.

(3) Illinois (AUTO Big 10) v (14) Morehead State (AUTO OVC):

Illinois’ 6 losses included 2 to Purdue, at Northwestern, at Michigan State and at Penn State and home against Maryland early. In their non-conference, they Beat Florida Atlantic, and lost close ones to Marquette and Tennessee.

Morehead State had a 3 game skid where they lost at the 1 and 2 seeds. They are higher in the ratings becasue they played a tough non-conference schedule, but won none of those tough games, so it is their conference record that matters.

(7) Washington State v (10) Drake (AUTO MVC):

Washington State beat Arizona twice of course, and lost 4 road games to mid table teams and at home to Washington and Oregon. Their non-conference schedule was weak, but they beat Boise State and lost to Mississippi State and Santa Clara.

Drake only lost 4 games in conference on the road against the 1, 4, 5 and 8 seeds. They are a conference juggernaut and I think they will win the AUTOBID. Drake beat Nevada whicgh is an outstanding win, and only lost twice in the non conference to UAB and SFA.

(2) Iowa State (AUTO Big 12) v (15) South Dakota State (AUTO Summit):

Iowa State Stats: 2nd Big 12, Record 27-7 (13-5), NET 6 (10-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom SoS 37

Iowa State. Really on a roll with their Big 12 tourney championship and a massive win over Houston. 2nd in the Big 12 all year, racking up all kinds of wins in the nation’s toughest conference. Iowa State lost 5 conference games in very hard road locations (at Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor, Houston, and Kansas State), and went undefeated at home. In their non-conference, they only beat non-tourney Iowa and lost to 9 seed Texas A&M and non-tourney Virginia Tech in close games. Kind of unimpressive. But their conference record is AWESOME, with a road win at 9 seed TCU and at 7 seed Texas, and at home they beat everyone, including 1 seed Houston and 4 seed Kansas.


Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral VCU; 5-0 loss neutral Virginia Tech; 5-1 loss neutral Texas A&M; 5-2 win at DePaul; 6-2 win home Iowa). Trailed the whole way against a pretty good VCU team and then won it at the end. Trailed the whole way against Virginia Tech and lost. Led early against Texas A&M and lost. Pulled away against a bad DePaul team. Really dominated Iowa.
Conference (8: 11-3, 0-1 WIN home Houston; 13-4, 2-2 WIN at TCU; 15-4, 4-2 win home Kansas; 16-4, 5-2 loss at Baylor; 17-5, 6-3 win home TCU; 18-5, 7-3 WIN at Cincinnati). Outstanding home wins in game 2 and 7 against previously undefeated Houston and Kansas at home. Road win at TCU in game 5. Beat Kansas State at home in game 6. Lost at Baylor in game 8 because their last second make was .1 seconds too late. Game 10 win at home with TCU. Conference road win at Cincinnati in game 11 to get to 8-3. In the game all the way at Houston in game 13, but lost. Beat West Virginia at home in game 14. Great separartion win home against Oklahoma in game 15. Won at UCF in game 16. Beat a geared up BYU in a really close high level game 17 at home. Beaten at Kansas State in a game Kansas State really needed, but still dropped them to the 2 seed and 13-5.
Players and Coach: This an excellent team, with a great leader in Lipsey and a bunch of key components of a good basketball team. They play aggressive defense. Gilbert and Lipsey are two good guards. Momcilovic is an outstanding Nowitski like freshman 3. Watson and King big physical bigs who can defend in the Big 12. Otzelberger their coach has a good

South Dakota State is not that much better than the 9 seed Oral Roberts and lost to them in the regular season on the road, and beat them at home. But they did finish 12-4, winning 7 more games in conference, losing to the 3, 5, 7 and 9 seeds once. Their non-conference was not impressive, losing mostly to similar teams from other conferences. Best win maybe Towson?

East Region 2nd Round:

East Region Sweet 16:

East Region Elite 8:

West Region 1st Round:

(1) North Carolina v (16) [Howard/Wagner winner]:

North Carolina Stats: 1st ACC, Record 27-7 (17-3), NET 8 (9-3 Quad 1), SoS 21

North Carolina. They look awfully good, but they have lost 7 times so not a great #1 seed. 1st in the ACC all year, and lost to the NC State miracle 5 game run in the final of the conference tourney. In their non-conference they were beaten by non-tourney Villanova, 1 seed UConn and 3 seed Kentucky, and beat a wide array of good major and midmajor conference teams, including 2 seed Tennessee and 6 seed clemson. North Carolina lost at Syracuse and Georgia Tech and home against Clemson in the conference season. But finished 17-3 in conference. Oh and they beat 4 seed Duke twice, easily. I think they may be slightly overrated this year in a down year for the ACC.
Players and Coach: North Carolina was #19 preseason, and RJ Davis has elevated their team. Bacot, a forward, is their feature player. Cormac Ryan a great guard transfer. Davis the star, and Ingram also a scoring talent. They are big, and no doubt talented but I don’t see a team that can advance super far in the tourney.

(8) Mississippi State v (9) Michigan State:

Mississippi State won 8 games, including home against Tennessee and Auburn early in the conference. In their non-conference, they beat Arizona State, Washington State, Northwestern, and Rutgers, and they lost to Georgia Tech and Southern.

Michigan State lost 4 of their last 5 to drop to the 8 seed, and lost to almost everyone in conference. In their non-conference they beat Baylor and Butler and lost to Duke and Arizona.

(5) Saint Mary’s (AUTO WCC) v (12) Grand Canyon (AUTO WAC):

Need to write summary for Saint Mary’s.

Grand Canyon’s only conference losses were at the 2, 3 and 7 seeds. In their non-conference they beat San Francisco, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech and SAN DIEGO STATE, and they almost beat South Carolina.

(4) Alabama v (13) Charleston (AUTO Coastal):

Alabama’s 5 conference losses were all to the top 6 and 4 of those 5 were on the road. Their non-conference was a bit rough, beating only Oregon, and losing to Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona, but those last 3 are brutal games and they were all close.

Charleston is on a 9 game winning streak, including wins over 2 seed Drexel and 3 seed Hofstra (both at home). Their only 3 losses were twice to UNC Wilmington early in the season and home against the 5 seed Towson. They do not have a good non-conference win, or a good non-conference loss.

(6) Clemson v (11) New Mexico (AUTO MWC):

Clemson won 7 of their last 10 to get back into the bubble conversation, the won and lost to random teams in conference. Clemson’s non-conference was outstanding, beating UAB, Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina, and TCU while losing only to Memphis by 2.

New Mexico had the 2nd worst MWC season, losing to Air Force and Wyoming from the top 7. New Mexico’s non-conference was very weak, beating a bunch of good mid major teams, but no great wins.

(3) Baylor v (14) Colgate (AUTO Patriot):

Baylor was beaten only twice at home by Houston and TCU, and lost 5 games on the road to a mix of teams. In their non-conference they beat Seton Hall, Florida and Auburn, and lost only to Michigan State and Duke.

Colgate lost only 2 games all conference season both at home to 2 and 3 seeds American and Lafayette. But they beat them both on the road. The finished the regular season six games up and so will be everyone’s pick for every game.

(7) Dayton v (10) Nevada:

Dayton’s four losses in conference all came in the 2nd half of the season, to the 1, 2, 5 and 7 seeds, all on the road. In the non-conference, they beat LSU, St. John’s SMU and Cincinnati, and they lost to Northwestern and Houston only. That explains their high NET.

Nevada only lost to 2 of the top 7 on the road, plus a Wyoming loss and losses at home to New Mexico and Boise State. Nevada is on a 7 game winning streak. In their non-conference, they beat Washington, TCU and Georgia Tech, and their only non-conference loss was to Drake.

(2) Arizona v (15) Long Beach State (AUTO Big West):

Somehow, Arizona dropped 5 Pac 12 games which is amazing. 2 to Washington State, at Oregon State, at Stanford, and at USC at the end when they didn’t care. Phenomenal non-conference with wins over Duke, Michigian State, Wisconsin, and Alabama, and losses only to Purdue and Florida Atlantic.

Long Beach State is on a 5 game losing streak. Before that they were on a 5 game winning streak. In the non-conference they beat Michigan and DePaul and USC.

West Region 2nd Round:

West Region Sweet 16:

West Region Elite 8:

South Region 1st Round:

(1) Houston v (16) Longwood (AUTO Big South): Houston by 24.

Upset Chance: 2%. Longwood had a great Big South tourney, but those teams are two or three classes down.

Houston Stats (3/18): 1st Big 12, Record 30-4 (15-3), NET 1 (16-4 Quad 1), SoS 14.

Longwood Stats (3/18): T 5th Big South, Record 21-13 (6-10), NET 162 (0-1 Quad 1), SoS 283.

Houston. You just do NOT want to play them. Big 12 regular season champs at 15-3 in conference. Houston was on an 11 game winning streak in the Big 12 before they lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 final, which is crazy good. They were undefeated in non-conference, but the best teams they beat were 9 seed Texas A&M and 7 seed Dayton. Beat 9 seed TCU and 6 seed Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney before losing to 2 seed Iowa State in the tourney final. They only lost at 4 seed Kansas, at 2 seed Iowa State and at 9 seed TCU in conference, and all three losses were early.
Players and Coach: Defense defense defense. Obviously VERY good. Iowa State beat them twice with their rebounding and size, and they are not huge. But – outstanding full floor guards. Athletic. Gamers. They rebound though they are small. Roberts and Francis are outstanding forward athletes. Cryer, a guard, scores quite a bit for them. Shedd is a great defensive player, maybe the best in the nation. Sampson is a very experienced and capable coach.

Longwood. Longwood came out of nowhere, with a 6-10 Big South conference record and the 5 seed to win the very good small conference the Big South. They beat Winthrop, High Point and UNC Asheville in the conference tourney to get the AUTOBID. They also beat High Point and UNC Asheville during the conference season, but had TEN conference losses. Longwood won a ton of games against no one in the non-conference, and lost to St. Bonaventure, Dayton, and North Carolina Central, all by less than 10 points. Their best win was maybe at Milwaukee?
Players and Coach: Napper, a guard, and Christmas, a forward, are their best two players.

(8) Nebraska v (9) Texas A&M:

Nebraska won 6 of 7 at the end of the year, beating everyone at the bottom of the conference. They lost at Illinois, but beat Purdue at home and only played each once.

Texas A&M beat Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida at home in their nine wins. In their non-conference, Texas A&M beat Iowa State, Penn State, Ohio State and SMU, but lost to Virginia, Memphis, Florida Atlantic and Houston all in relatively close games.

(5) Wisconsin v (12) James Madison (AUTO Sunbelt):

Wisconsin has lost 8 of their last 11, 6 on the road and home to Illinois and Purdue. In their non-conference they beat Virginia, SMU and Marquette, but lost to Tennessee, Providence and Arizona.

James Madison’s 3 losses in conference were 2 with Appalachian State and at 6 seed Southern Miss by 10. Most of their conference wins have been by more than 10 points. Other than the famous Michigan State win, they don’t have any really good non-conference wins.

(4) Duke v (13) Vermont (AUTO America East):

Duke lost twice to North Carolina, at Wake Forest, and home against Pitt and Georgia Tech. In their non-conference they lost to Arkansas (?) and Arizona and that is it, with wins over Michigan State and Baylor.

Vermont lost once in conference at 9 seed NJIT in a game I cannot explain, and won nearly all games by more than 5 points and most by more than 10. They should not lose in this tournament. Vermont did lose in the non-conference to good teams, and beat a few good teams too.

(6) Texas Tech v (11) NC State (AUTO ACC):

Texas Tech’s 7 conference losses were to 7 different teams, mostly on the road. In their non-conference, they beat no one of note and lost to Villanova and Butler. They beat a bunch of excellent teams at home.

NC State beat Virginia, Wake Forest and Clemson among their 9 conference wins, and the rest were against the bottom of the conference. In their non-conference, NC State beat, uh, UT Martin as thier best win, and lost to BYU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. NC State probably thought they had a chance at the NCAAs in the ACC tourney, but I thought they were playing for the NIT.

(3) Kentucky v (14) Oakland (AUTO Horizon):

Kentucky won 7 of 8 to get to the 2 seed with wins over the 1, 3 and 4 seeds. In their non-conference they beat North Carolina and Miami, and lost to UNC Wilmington and Kansas, and they played absolutely no one else.

Oakland has 5 conference losses, 4 of which were against mid-table teams on the road. They beat Youngstown State twice. In the non conference, Oakland beat Xavier, which is a good sign for them.

(7) Florida v (10) [Boise State / Colorado]:

Florida lost 6 of their 7 conference losses on the road against a mix of teams, and they did beat Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama at home. Florida beat Florida State, Pitt, Richmond and Michigan, but lost to Baylor, Virginia and Wake Forest in the non-conference.

(2) Marquette v (15) Western Kentucky (AUTO CUSA):

Marquette lost twice to UConn, and once to Creighton and Seton Hall, and only 2 other losses in conference. They had a great non-conference, beating Illinois, UCLA, Kansas, Texas and Notre Dame, losing to Purdue and Wisconsin only.

Western Kentucky’s .500 record includes only 1 win against the top 2 in conference. Western Kentucky won a lot of non-conference games but their best win was maybe Bowling Green?

South Region 2nd Round:

South Region Sweet 16:

South Region Elite 8:

Midwest Region 1st Round:

(1) Purdue v (16) [Montana State/Grambling winner]:

Purdue Stats: 1st Big 10, Record 29-4 (17-3), NET 3 (12-4 Quad 1), SoS 4

Purdue. Threat to win it all. Will be a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAAs for certain. Purdue lost 4 games all year, at Nebraska, at Ohio State and at Northwestern, and then in the conference semifinals against Wisconsin. 17-3 in conference. They had the best non-conference in the country, beating Xavier, Gonzaga, Tennessse, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. That’s crazy. Only problem they didn’t play Houston or UConn! They beat Michigan State in the Big 10 tourney before losing to Wisconsin.
Players and Coach: Purdue has a BUNCH of talent and experience, and a couple of freshmen, and they are mad that they lost in the 1st round last year as a #1 seed. But still, Zach Edey is no amazing leader, and I think they fall short in the tournament again. Their loss to the 16 seed last year will make them almost invincible in the first two rounds.

(8) Utah State v (9) TCU:

Utah State had a great conference season, winning the MWC. Their 4 conference losses included 3 on the road agaisnt the top 7 plus Nevada beat them at home. They had a successful non-conference with a bunch of wins against mid major programs, losing only to Bradley.

TCU beat Oklahoma, Baylor, Houston, and Texas Tech in their nine wins. In their non-conference they didn’t beat anyone good and lost to Clemson and Nevada.

(5) Gonzaga v (12) McNeese (AUTO Southland):

No summary for Gonzaga.

McNeese won the regular season by 2-3 games, with their only loss by 3 at SE Louisiana the 5 seed. They beat VCU, UAB, UT Martin, Michigan and a few other teams, and only lost to Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina in non-conference.

(4) Kansas v (13) Samford (AUTO Southern):

Kansas lost 7 of their 8 conference losses on the road, losing to almost everyone at the top of the conference. Their injuries are making them vulnerable. In the non-conference they beat Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn, losing only to Marquette. Kansas is playing without their two bigs, and so they are exceptionally vulnerable.

Samford is my stealth NCAA pick. Samford is an outstanding small conference team, and their losses in conference make no sense, though they will give confidence to everyone else. Samford has 3 conference losses, at the 5, 6, and 8 seeds. Weird. Dominated the top 4 seeds. They lost to Purdue and VCU in their non-conference and didn’t really play anyone else. Best win maybe Louisiana.

(6) South Carolina v (11) Oregon (AUTO Pac 12):

South Carolina’s losses included 3 at home, and all 5 were against a mix of teams. They only lost 2 conference road games to Auburn and Alabama all year which is something. In their non-conference they beat Notre Dame, Grand Canyon and Virginia Tech, but lost to Clemson.

5 of Oregon’s 8 conference losses came against the top 3, but they also lost at Utah, at USC and at Cal. In their non-conference they beat Georgia and Michigan, and lost to Alabama, Syracuse and Santa Clara.

(3) Creighton v (14) Akron (AUTO MAC):

Creighton’s six conference losses are to a total mix of teams, indicating some inconsistency. But they have won 7 of 8 late. Creighton beat Iowa, Loyola Chicago, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Alabama, and lost only to Colorado State and UNLV.

Akron’s 5 losses in conference came against all tiers of the conference, and they lost 4 of their last 6. In the non-conference, best win maybe Bradley?

(7) Texas v (10) [Virginia/Colorado State]:

Since February, Texas has only lost to nationally ranked teams. In their non-conference they played very few good teams, beating LSU and losing to UConn and Marquette.

(2) Tennessee v (15) Saint Peter’s (AUTO MAAC):

Tennessee has been outstanding all year, losing only to Kentucky and South Carolina at home and at Texas A&M and at Mississippi State both of which are nasty places to play. Their non-conference was good but they did not beat the top teams, beating Wisconsin, Syracuse, Illinois and NC State, but losing to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina.

5 of Saint Peter’s 8 conference losses came against the top 3 in conference. Saint Peter’s racked up a lot of wins over not very good teams in their non-conference.

Midwest Region 2nd Round:

Midwest Region Sweet 16:

Midwest Region Elite 8:

FINAL FOUR:

CHAMPIONSHIP:

TEAM BY TEAM

reputation.

Arizona. Arizona is my national champion. Should win the Pac 12.
Prediction: 1st Pac 12; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 8 Quad 1 wins. 2 of their 7 losses are to Washington State the 2 seed.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% AUTOBID. 1 seed. Only Washington State is competitive, and maybe Colorado can beat them? I doubt it. Lots of teams motivated as there are not a lot of at-large bids for the Pac 12 this year. Beat USC. Lost to Oregon in the Pac 12 semfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Arizona is playing for the 1 seed, but not really anything else. They will be a 2 seed if they lose to USC in the Pac 12 quarterfinals, and probably in almost every scenario where North Carolina or Tennessee wins their tournmaments. If all 3 lose then maybe. Arizona could drop to a 3 seed if they lose before the final. After the Oregon loss they are a 2 seed.
Stats (3/9): 1st Pac 12, Record 24-7 (15-5), NET 4 (8-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 4 (SoS 22), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 WIN at Duke; 5-0 win neutral Michigan State; 7-0 win home Wisconsin; 8-1 win neutral Alabama; 9-1 loss neutral Florida Atlantic). GREAT early win at Duke and against Michigan State on a neutral floor. Destroyed #23 Wisconsin at home. Controlled Alabama on a neutral floor. Lost to Florida Atlantic in Vegas in double OT.
Conference (10-3, 1-1 win home Colorado; 12-4, 3-2 win home USC; 13-4, 4-2 win home UCLA; 16-5, 7-3 win home Stanford; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Colorado). Somehow they lost at Stanford in a game I didn’t see. But absolutely destroyed Colorado and USC in games 3 and 6. Beat UCLA in a close one in game 7 at home. Beat Stanford at home to get to 8-3 in game 11. Road win at Colorado in game 13 to establish dominance. Beaten at home by 2 seed Washington State for their 6th loss. Beat Washington at home in game 16. Won at Arizona State in game 17. Crushed Oregon in game 18 at home. Controlled UCLA on the road in game 19. Lost at USC to finish the Pac 12 15-5.
Players and Coach: Really execute down the stretch. Calm. Hit every free throw. Arguably multiple NBA level talents. Keyshawn Johnson at forward is a great defender with the talent to guard almost any larger big. Huge block at the end against Michigan State by Johnson. Ballo, another forward, is huge and improving fast. Caleb Love is on this team as a kind of side player lol. Freshman point guard Boswell is great and looks like a one and done NBA player.

Tennessee. This team is really, really good. Could win it all.
Prediction: 1st SEC; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
Bubble Watch: 100% IN. Beat Auburn at home. Beat Alabama ON THE ROAD. Beat South Carolina ON THE ROAD. They finally lost to an on fire Kentucky at home! Wow! Unbelievably hard schedule.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 60% AUTOBID. 1 seed in the SEC is impressive. Knecht makes them a tourney favorite for sure. Extremely hard to beat them. But the SEC quarters and semis will be tough. Eliminated by Mississippi State in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Definitely a 2 seed with the Mississippi State loss.
Stats (3/9): 1st SEC, Record 24-7 (14-4), NET 5 (8-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 5 (SoS 8), Lunardi 1 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 3-0 win neutral Syracuse; 4-0 loss neutral Purdue; 4-1 loss neutral Kansas; 4-2 loss at North Carolina; 4-3 win home Illinois). Tennessee played an extremely difficult schedule. Took over the game in the end against Syracuse on a neutral floor. Pressed Purdue all the way to the end, and nearly beat them. Then lost in a not close game to Kansas on a neutral floor. Fell way behind at North Carolina and rallied and almost beat them. Beat a top 20 Illinois kind of leading the whole way.
Conference (9: 11-4, 1-1 WIN at Georgia; 15-4, 5-1 LOSS home South Carolina; 15-5, 5-2 WIN at Kentucky; 17-5, 7-2 loss at Texas A&M; 21-6, 11-3 home Auburn; 22-6, 12-3 at Alabama): Wiped out previously 13-0 Ole Miss by 20 in their conference opener at home. Lost a very close one at Mississippi State in game 2. Beat Georgia on the road just barely in game 3. Beat Florida and Alabama easily at home in games 4 and 5. Beaten at home by South Carolina in a game that says a LOT more about South Carolina than Tennessee. Outstanding win at Kentucky proving themselves to be a top SEC team and a threat to win the conference for sure. Beat LSU at home in game 9. Dropped game 10 at Texas A&M which is not a terrible loss. Road win at Arkansas in game 11. Home win over Vanderbilt in game 12. Road win at Missouri in game 13. Beat Texas A&M in game 14 at home. Won extremely high level game against Auburn at home in game 15. Won another extremely high level game at Alabama in game 16. Won ANOTHER extremely high level game at South Carolina in game 17. Finally beaten by Kentucky at home, but their record this year of 14-4 in the SEC is phenomenal.
Players and Coach: Tennessee is the excellent chaos agent team this year. I think they can destroy every team in the NCAAs on a good night. Long. Athletic. Guard Gainey is an offensive juggernaut. Zeigler is a great point guard. Dalton Knecht might be national player of the year, and is proving to be NBA worthy. Barnes is an NBA level coach, kind of a guru.

Duke. Duke is Duke again this year. Could win the NCAA tourney and surging.
Prediction: 2nd ACC; AUTOBID; 2 Seed; Elite 8.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% STEAL. 2 seed, threat to North Carolina of course.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Duke is a very strong 2 seed and has an outside shot at a 1 seed if a bunch of games go their way. Not likely to slip to a 3 seed even if they lose their quarterfinal to NC State. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC quarterfinals. Still a 2 seed.
Stats (3/9): 2nd ACC, Record 24-7 (15-5), NET 9 (5-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 7 (SoS 75), Lunardi 2 Seed
Non-Conference: (12: 1-0 LOSS home Arizona; 1-1 win neutral Michigan State; 5-1 loss at Arkansas; 5-2 loss at Georgia Tech; 7-3 win neutral Baylor). They lost to excellent Arizona in a very close second game of the season. Controlled games with Michigan State and Baylor on neutral floors. Lost at Arkansas in a game Arkansas was majorly geared up for.
Conference (10: 10-3, 1-1 WIN at Notre Dame; 11-3, 2-1 WIN at Pitt; 13-3, 4-1 LOSS home Pitt; 13-4, 4-2 WIN at Louisville; 15-4, 6-2 WIN at Virginia Tech; 19-5, 10-3 WIN at Florida State): Upset at Georgia Tech in the ACC opener. Controlled Syracuse in game 2. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, Louisville, and Virginia Tech on the road in games 3, 4, 7 and 9. Avenged their only ACC loss home with Georgia Tech in game 5. Another upset home against Pitt in game 6. Barely held on at home against Clemson in game 8. Beaten at North Carolina in game 10. Beat Notre Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest at home in games 11-13. Road wins at Florida State and Miami in games 14 and 15. Beaten at Wake Forest on a last possession type loss in game 16. Controlled Louisville in game 17 at home. Crushed 3 seed Virginia in game 18 in a lock of the 2 seed. at home. Beat NC State on the road in game 19. Beaten by North Carolina at home to fall to 15-5 in conference.
Players and Coach: Typical super dangerous Duke team. Lots of returning players. Top recruits. Smart bigs. Tons of Talent. Filipkowski at forward is a monster! Proctor the guard also superb. Guard Roach is a gamer. McCain is a great shooter. Gonna be hard to beat them in the tournament. The new coach Scheyer is not a legend, so that may hurt them in the tournament, let’s not forget.

NCAA Tourney Sweet 16 (teams 9-16 in the tournament)

3 Seeds

Illinois. Really better than their record indicates becasue Shannon was out for some of their losses.
Prediction: 2nd Big 10, 3 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN (Feb 28).
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. In the Big 10 tourney they will probably get to the finals or semis and will be in that game because they have the talent.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Illinois is ranked lower by some but I see them as a 3 seed. If they get upset in the Big 10 tournament maybe a 4 seed.
Stats (3/10): 2nd Big 10; Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 15 (5-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 10 (SoS 35), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (8: loss home Marquette; 6-1 win neutral Florida Atlantic; 7-1 loss at Tennessee; 8-2 neutral Missouri). In the game the whole way against a very highly rated Marquette. Seemed to execute over and over again, but so did Marquette. Then took down an outstanding Florida Atlantic team. Then lost at Tennessee, who is outstanding, in a fairly close game. Blew out a really good Missouri team.
Conference (11: 5-1, 0-0 WIN at Rutgers; 12-3, 3-1 LOSS home Maryland; 12-4, 3-2 WIN at Michigan; 14-5, 5-3 win home Indiana; 18-6, 9-4 WIN at Maryland): Really nice conference game one win at Rutgers. Even better wins at home against Northwestern and Michigan State in games 2 and 4. No shame in a close loss at Purdue in game 3. A lot of shame in game 5 loss to Maryland at home. Then a road win at Michigan in game 6. Nice game 7 20 point win in Shannon’s first game back against Rutgers at home. Beaten in OT at Northwestern in game 8. Nice wins home with Indiana and Nebraska in games 9 and 11. Beaten at Michigan State in game 12. Road win at Maryland in game 14. Beaten on the last possession at Penn State in game 15. Beat Iowa and Minnesota at home in games 16 and 17. Won AT Wisconsin in a massive separation game 18. Won AT Iowa to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: Their big 3 of Shannon, Damask and Hawkins, together with a great supporting cast makes them a championship threat. Underwood knows what he is doing as coach.

Auburn. Auburn has won all 24 games they have won by 10 points or more. Title contender.
Prediction: 2nd SEC; 3 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Outstanding year in the SEC.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2-5 seed.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Auburn is probably one of the top 8 teams in the country and could move up to a 2 seed with a great tourney performance.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 24-7 (13-5), NET 6 (1-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 5 (SoS 57), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 0-0 loss neutral Baylor; 1-1 win neutral Notre Dame; 4-1 win home Vanderbilt; 5-1 LOSS at Appalachian State; 7-2 win home USC). Destroyed a pretty bad Notre Dame team and a decent mid major in St. Bonaventure. Lots of new players, but easily looked competitive in a loss to #20 Baylor in their first game. Beat Virginia Tech and USC easily. Lost at Appalachian State, which I don’t think is a really bad loss despite the conference. Kudos to them for going to the mid-major team away. Dominated a fairly bad Indiana team.
Conference (11: 11-2, 0-0 WIN at Arkansas; 14-2, 3-0 WIN at Vanderbilt; 16-3, 5-1 loss at Mississippi State; 17-4, 6-2 WIN at Ole Miss; 18-4, 7-2 win home Alabama; 20-5, 9-3 LOSS home Kentucky; 21-6, 10-4 at Tennessee): Good game 1-3 wins at Arkansas and home with Texas A&M and LSU. Controlling road win in game 4 at Vanderbilt. Blew out Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in games 5 and 8 at home. First conference losses at Alabama and Mississippi State in games 6 and 7. Outstanding conference win on the road at 18-3 Ole Miss in game 9. Crushed Alabama in game 10 at home. Blow out loss at Florida in game 11. Blew out South Carolina in game 12 at home. Then beaten by Kentucky at home in game 13. Road win at Georgia in game 14. Really in the game at Tennessee in game 15 in a VERY high level game, but lost. Beat Mississippi State at home in game 16. Beat Missouri on the road in game 17. Beat Georgia at home to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Bruce Pearl knows how to coach athletic talent and I have no reason to expect they won’t be dangerous in the tournament. Good, big, athletic team. Broome at forward is a major force, scoring and rebounds. Holloway is a good freshman guard. Johnson is also a good guard. Experienced. They know how to pass too.

Marquette. Losing Kolek really hurts them and should drop their seeding.
Prediction: 2nd Big East; 3 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Beaten by Creighton and UConn late in the season without Kolek. Won tough game at Xavier in their last game.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 25% chance AUTOBID. They were among the best and then they lost Kolek and lost to UConn and Creighton. They might need the win at Xavier to preserve the 2 seed, but no matter what they have to beat both Creighton and UConn to get the AUTOBID. Without Kolek, that may be impossible. Eliminated by UConn in the Big East Final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Marquette has the Kolek question mark and is up to 8 losses. Could be seeded 4 or even 5 if they get knocked out of the Big East tourney. They are a SOLID 3 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd Big East, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 14 (7-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 14 (SoS 9), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (11: 2-0 win at Illinois; 3-0 win neutral UCLA; 4-0 win neutral Kansas; 5-0 loss neutral Purdue; 6-1 loss at Wisconsin). Beat Illinois, UCLA, Kansas and Texas early in the year, then lost a pretty close game to Purdue and were beaten at Wisconsin and at Providence.
Conference (10: 11-4, 2-2 LOSS home Butler; 11-5, 2-3 win home Villanova; 12-5, 3-3 WIN at St. John’s; 15-5, 6-3 WIN at Villanova; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Butler): In a real war at home with Creighton and won. Then beaten at Seton Hall and at home with Butler in bad seeding losses. Beat Villanova and DePaul at home easily in games 6 and 8. Last possession win at St. John’s in game 7. Beat Seton Hall at home in game 9. Road win at Georgetown in game 11. Another game, another win in game 12 home with St. John’s. Nice win at Butler to get to 10-3 in conference. Beaten by almost 30 at UConn in game 14, then beat DePaul by almost 30 in game 15! Crushed Xavier and Providence in games 16 and 17 at home. Beaten at Creighton in game 18, missing some players. Then lost at home to UConn in game 19 in a major seedings loss. Won at Xavier to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: Shaka Smart is an outstanding coach. Joplin is an excellent big, especially on defense. Iguodaro another good bid, especially on offense. Kolek is a great distributing guard who can score. Ross is really athletic and talented. Losing Sean Jones for the year does not help them. Interesting team that will be hard to match up with on defense, because they have five similarly sized starters. And they play organized and well. Seeded #5 to start the year, I think bigger more powerful teams will take them out both in the season and in the tournament. But they have a BUNCH of gamers. Played a ridiculous schedule at the beginning of the year and started 7-2. Could win it all, but they have already lost three times.

Kentucky. Won 7 of 8 late to put their stamp on this season. Growing MORE dangerous.
Prediction: 3rd SEC; 3 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Nice win at home over Alabama and on the road at Mississippi State AND AT TENNESSEE late.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Obviously, you do not want to play them. 2-5 seed. Calipari is a tournament / star coach. Eliminated by Texas A&M in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: 3 seed seems just about right for Kentucky who have the quality of a one seed and the performance of an 8 seed. Could drop to a 4 with the quarterfinal loss.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 23-8 (13-5), NET 19 (5-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 18 (SoS 71), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (9: 2-0 loss neutral Kansas; 3-1 win home St. Joseph’s; 5-1 win home Miami; 6-1 LOSS home UNC Wilmington; 7-2 win neutral North Carolina). But came to play against Kansas and almost beat them. Then absolutely destroyed Miami in the ACC-SEC challenge. Lost by 8 at home to UNC Wilmington. Won a close game with North Carolina in a nice win. Destroyed Louisville on a neutral floor. High end february matchup with Gonzaga ended in a loss.
Conference (9: 10-2, 0-0 WIN at Florida, 14-4, 4-2 WIN at Arkansas; 15-4, 5-2 LOSS home Florida; 15-5, 5-3 LOSS home Tennessee; 17-7, 7-4 WIN at Auburn): Great road win at Florida in their conference opener. Beat Missouri, Mississippi State and Georgia at home in games 2, 4 and 5. OT loss in a great game at Texas A&M game 3. Beaten on the road again at South Carolina in game 6. Road win at Arkansas in game 7. Beaten at home by Florida and Tennessee in games 8 and 9 in a clear warning sign for their tournament capability. Road win at Vanderbilt in game 10. Beat Ole Miss at home in game 11. Phenomenal game 12 win at Auburn, for resume and seeding. Beaten on a last second tip in at LSU for their 5th SEC loss. Excellent win at home over Alabama to right the ship in the SEC again. Another excellent win on the road at Mississippi State in game 15. Beat Arkansas at home in game 16 in a fairly close game. Beat Vanderbilt at home in game 17. OUTSTANDING road win at Tennessee who has beaten everyone to finish the conference 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is a very typical young super talented Kentucky team that can lose on any given night, but could win the national championship with tons of NBA level talent. Freshman Dillingham is a legit force and looks solid. Other Freshman Wagner is a top 5 recruit. Might be their team by the end of the year. Tre Mitchell experienced player for them. Not sure a team led by Shephard can win key games. Apparently have three 7 footers not playing at the beginning of the year so look out once they arrive. Calipari still coaching them, of course.

4 Seeds

Creighton. One of those dangerous teams that is just below the top.
Prediction: 3rd Big East; 4 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Will not get to 9 losses.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 38% AUTOBID chance. 2 or 3 seed. Creighton won 7 of their last 8. Eliminated by Providence in the Big East quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Creighton has been plugging along and really deserve a 4 seed at the lowest and I think maybe a 3. Big East Quarterfinals loss to Providence: Still a 4 seed.
Stats (3/9): 2nd Big East, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 11 (7-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 9 (SoS 17), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (12: 5-0 loss neutral Colorado State; 5-1 win at Oklahoma State; 8-1 loss at UNLV; 8-2 win home Alabama). Held their own defeating Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska in very nice wins. But two bad losses to Mountain West teams. They ran into a buzzsaw in Colorado State, losing about almost 20. And lost at UNLV by 15 points. Controlled the games at Oklahoma State and blew out Nebraska.
Conference (10: 9-2, 0-0 LOSS home Villanova; 9-4, 0-2 WIN at Georgetown; 11-4, 2-2 WIN at DePaul; 13-5, 4-3 WIN at Seton Hall; 16-5, 7-3 LOSS home Butler; 16-7, 7-5 WIN at Xavier; 18-7, 9-5 WIN at Butler): Lost real wars with Villanova and Marquette in games 1 and 2. Controlled Georgetown in game 3. Beat Providence at home, and DePaul on the road in games 4 and 5. Barely beat St. John’s at home in game 6. Lost at UConn in game 7. Outstanding wins at Seton Hall and home with Xavier in games 8 and 9. Home with with DePaul in game 10. Beaten at home in game 11 by Butler in a bad seeding loss. But road win at Xavier in game 13 to get to 8-5 in the Big East. Game 14 win home against Georgetown. Another impressive road win at Butler in game 15. 4th straight Big East win at home over UCONN in game 16. Beaten at St. John’s in a bad NCAA seeding loss in game 17. Rebound win by 25 over Seton Hall at home in game 18. Beat Marquette at home in game 19 to seal their bid. Excellent bubble bustin road win at Villanova to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: What’s not to like about this team. skill, anger at last years Elite 8 loss. This is a real basketball fan’s basketball team. Lots and lots of positives here. Ashworth just solid at the point can run the team. Two all conference bigs including huge Kalkbrenner and Schiermann, great point guard, depth, organization. Greg McDermott is arguably one of the nation’s best coaches and he has the talent. Outside threat to win it all.

Wisconsin. Lost 8 of their last 11 games which is amazing for a projected NCAA tournament team
Prediction: 3rd Big 10; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 70% IN. See above. Yikes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. 5 seed so missed out on the double bye. Will play the winner of Maryland and Rutgers in the 2nd round.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Right now I have them as a 7 seed, but they lost a bunch of games and may be lower. If they lose to Maryland in the 2nd round of the tourney they may be in bubble trouble? I don’t think so. Probably in anyway.
Stats (3/10): 5th Big 10, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 22 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 23 (SoS 6), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 1-1 loss at Providence; 2-2 win neutral Virginia; 3-2 win neutral SMU; 5-2 win home Marquette; 6-2 win at Arizona). Blown out at Providence. Then blew out a supposedly good Virginia team that I don’t believe in. Really struggled with an OK SMU team, but won solidly in control. Great early win home vs. Marquette and they controlled the game. Blown out at Arizona.
Conference (12: 11-3, 3-0 WIN at Ohio State; 13-3, 5-0 loss at Penn State; 14-4, 6-1 WIN at Minnesota; 15-4, 7-1 win home Michigan State; 16-5, 8-2 LOSS home Purdue): Controlled Iowa and Nebraska in games 2 and 3 at home. Proved themselves a top Big 10 team in game for win at Ohio State, and at home with Northwestern in game 5. Last team to lose in the Big 10 in game 6 at Penn State in an upset. Easily beat Indiana at home in game 7. Road win at Minnesota in game 8. Controlled Michigan State at home in game 9. Lost at Nebraska and Michigan in games 10 and 12 Beaten by Purdue at home in game 11. Blown out at Rutgers in game 13 to drop to 8-5 in conference. Beaten at Iowa to fall to 9-6 in game 15. Beat Maryland at home in game 16. Beaten on the road at Indiana for the 7th conference loss in game 17. Beaten at home in game 18 with Illinois in a very bad seeding loss for them. Recovery win over Rutgers in game 19 at home. Lost at Purdue to finish the conference season at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Obviously experienced with Crowl, Wahl & Hepburn. AJ Storr brings athleticism and scoring, which they need. Probably will outperform their early look. They are gonna win a LOT of games with experience and a lot of talent in the underskilled Big 10 this year.

Baylor. Excellent college basketball team. Can win the national championship in an upset.
Prediction: 3rd Big 12; 4 Seed; Sweet 16.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Nice win at TCU. Great win against Kansas at home. Beat Texas. Lost at Texas Tech.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 20% 3 or 4 seed. Really held it together in conference all year. Eliminated by Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Baylor has 9 losses, but they play in the Big 12. They need a win or two to keep a 4 seed. After the Iowa State loss I think they are still a 4 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd Big 12, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 13 (8-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 13 (SoS 5), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (0-0 win neutral Auburn; 5-0 win neutral Florida; 8-0 win home Seton Hall; 9-0 loss neutral Michigan State; 9-1 loss neutral Duke). Beat a tough Auburn team with key plays down the stretch. Totally controlled Oregon State. Then against Florida, who is good, they led the whole way. Led the whole way against likely tournament team Seton Hall at home. Then lost by 30 to Michigan State and by 10 to Duke on neutral courts.
Conference (9: 14-3, 3-1 loss at Texas; 14-4, 3-2 LOSS home TCU; 16-5, 5-3 win home Texas Tech; 17-5, 6-3 loss at Kansas; 18-6, 7-4 WIN at West Virginia; 19-7, 8-5 home Houston): Lost tough one possession game at Texas in game 5. Beaten at home in triple OT by TCU in game 6. Barely held off Iowa State in game 8 at home. Beat Texas Tech in game 9 at home. Beaten at Kansas in game 10 to drop to 6-4. Beat Oklahoma in game 11 at home. Road win at West Virginia in game 12. Beaten at BYU in game 13. Beaten at home by Houston in a very close game in game 14. Great win on the road at TCU by almost 20 in game 15. Beat Kansas in a huge separation game 16. Beat Texas at home in a crushing loss for Texas in game 17. Lost at Texas Tech to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Deep, athletic, talented team. #20 in the preseason poll, but lots of new players. Drew will coach them up though. Walter the freshman guard is a likely first round NBA pick. Dennis is another nice scoring and passing point guard. Nunn the transfer guard is a serious player.

Alabama. They are in the tournament absent a total collapse.
Prediction: 4th SEC; 4 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Will be a 2-5 seed. They want to stay in the top 4 seeds.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 24%. They definitely want to stay in the top 4 for the double bye.
Stats (3/9): 2nd SEC, Record 21-10 (13-5), NET 7 (4-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 11 (SoS 2), Lunardi 4 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 4-0 loss neutral Ohio State; 5-1 loss home Clemson; 6-2 loss neutral Purdue; 6-3 loss at Creighton; 6-4 loss neutral Arizona). Trailed the whole way against a better than expected Ohio State on a neutral floor. Lost against a pretty good Clemson at home. In a very close war with Purdue on a neutral site, but shot the lights out. Then in a very close loss at Creighton, which is impressive. Not that close with Arizona. But their non-conference schedule was brutal.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Alabama has 10 losses, but they played the 2nd hardest schedule in America. Definitely deserve a 4 seed or higher. Will go up or down depending on tourney performance.
Conference (12: 8-5, 0-0 WIN at Vanderbilt; 10-5, 2-0 WIN at Mississippi State;; 14-6, 6-1 WIN at Georgia; 16-7, 8-2 WIN at LSU; 19-8, 11-3 WIN at Ole Miss): Finally beat Vanderbilt on the road in their conference opener, but it was a struggle. Game 2 and 4 blowouts at home over South Carolina and Missouri at home. Excellen win in game 3 at Mississippi State on the road. Blown out at Tennessee in game 5. Beat previously undefeated Auburn and LSU in games 6 and 7 at home. 3rd road win in conference at Georgia in game 8 to go to 7-1 in conference. Crushed Mississippi State in game 9 at home. Blown out at Auburn in game 10. Another road win at LSU in game 11. Beat Texas A&M at home in game 12. Beat Florida at home in a tournament level game in game 13. Beaten at Kentucky in game 14 in a tough seeding loss. Won on the road at Ole Miss in a very nice road win in game 15. Beaten at home by Tennessee in game 16 in a close one and no shame in that really, except for Alabaman shame. Crushed by Florida on the road in game 17 in a game that kind of confirms that they have not been seeded too low. Came back to beat Arkansas to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Highest scoring team in the country. Sears the guard is quick and scores like crazy, and is a player of the year candidate.

NCAA Tourney Round 2 (teams 17-32 in the tournament)

5 Seeds

Florida. I’m not sure they have the guards to get past the second round.
Prediction: 6th SEC; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. They have a great resume. Beaten at South Carolina. Destroyed Alabama at home. Bad loss at Vanderbilt keeps them from clinching an at-large bid.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 15% chance. 6 seed. I think they make the semis of their conference tourney, and a decent NCAA seed, but that quarterfinal is going to be tough.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Florida is my bubble team with the highest chance of getting in. If Florida loses to Georgia are they on the bubble? I don’t think so but maybe. I’ll have them in.
Stats (3/9): 6th SEC, Record 21-10 (11-7), NET 35 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 30 (SoS 49), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 1-0 loss neutral Virginia; 3-1 win neutral Pitt; 4-1 loss neutral Baylor; 4-2 LOSS at Wake Forest; 7-3 win at Michigan). Played well in a tough first game against a very good Virginia team. Didn’t have the decisionmakers at the end, kind of bad guard play. Game could have gone either way. Totally blew out Florida State, who is big. Beat a very good team in Pitt after that. Played Baylor close missing a few players. Then lost at Wake Forest who is not very good. Nice double OT win at Michigan to get to 7-3.
Conference (13: 10-3, 0-0 LOSS home Kentucky; 11-6, 1-3 WIN at Missouri; 14-6, 4-3 WIN at Kentucky; 15-6, 5-3 at Texas A&M; 15-7, 5-4 win home Auburn; 17-7, 7-4 WIN at Georgia; 19-8, 9-5 home Missouri): Not any bad losses so far. Took Kentucky to the end but lost at home in the conference opener. Then lost by 20 at Ole Miss and Tennessee in games 2 and 4. Beat Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Georgia at home in games 3, 6 and 7. Nice road win at Missouri in game 5. Outstanding season making win at Kentucky in game 8. Lost very close game at Texas A&M in game 9. Beat Auburn at home in game 10 in a real resume builder, and another home win against LSU in game 11. Good conference road win at Georgia in game 12. Beat Vanderbilt and Missouri at home in games 14 and 15. Beaten at South Carolina in game 1 for their 6th conference loss. Absolutely crushed Alabama in an outstanding win game 17. Beaten at Vanderbilt to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Very athletic team. Big, kind of classic Florida. Balanced and deep. Clayton and Kugel both nice players. Pullin is another really good guard who can score and pass. Goldin is a young rising coach.

South Carolina. They just keep on winning SEC games.
Prediction: 5th SEC; 4 Seed; NCAA Sweet 16
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Statement win at Tennessee, only 5 losses on the year! Beat Florida at home late. Beaten at home by Tennessee in a real war. Won at Mississippi State too.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2-5 seed They want to stay top 4 for the double bye. SEC semifinals are going to be unbelievable. Eliminated by Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: South Carolina only has 6 losses and so they deserve a 3 seed. Will they get it? Probably only if they get to the final or get the AUTOBID. The Auburn loss may put them as far down as a 5 seed, and Lunardi has them as a 6 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 2nd SEC, Record 25-6 (13-5), NET 47 (4-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 46 (SoS 81), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 1-0 win neutral Virginia Tech; 4-0 win neutral Grand Canyon; 5-0 win home Notre Dame; 7-0 loss at Clemson; 7-1 win at East Carolina). Handled Notre Dame easily. In a very close loss at Clemson, which is not bad. At East Carolina, who is a decent mid-major, they really struggled to win. Crushed Elon.
Conference (11: 13-2, 1-1 WIN at Missouri; 14-2, 2-1 LOSS home Georgia; 14-3, 2-2 WIN at Arkansas; 15-3, 3-2 WIN home Kentucky; 17-3, 5-2 WIN at Tennessee; 18-3, 6-2 WIN at Georgia; 21-4, 9-3 LOSS home LSU): Really nice conference opening win with Mississippi State at home. Blown out in game 2 at Alabama. Won a real war at Missouri in a bubble game 3. Lost to Georgia at home in game 4. Nice road win at Arkansas in game 5. Great controlling home wins against Kentucky and Missouri in games 6 and 7. Season defining win at #5 Tennessee in game 8. Their fourth conference road win at Georgia in game 9. Beat Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in games 10 and 11 at home. Blown out at Auburn in game 12. 2nd home loss to a bottom of the league team in LSU in game 13. Crushed Ole Miss on the road in game 14. Beat Texas A&M on the road in a game A&M had to win in game 15. Beat Florida at home in a matchup of tourney teams in game 16. Beaten at home by Tennessee in a crazy high level game. Great road win over Mississippi State to finish the conference season at 13-5.
Players and Coach: Mechie Johnson is a crazy good scorer and PJ Mack is their good forward. Lots of transfers, including Minnesota transfer Ta’Lon Cooper, who I know well. They have a ton of talented size and rebound aggresssively. Just a LOT to like. Having a great season.

BYU. If ever a loss got you into the NCAAs it would be their close loss at Iowa State.
Prediction: 5th Big 12; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Phenomenal resume road win at Kansas, and a home win against bubble team TCU. Basically gets them in the tournament. Very close to winning at Iowa State. What an interesting conference switch. They have held up well all year in the Big 12 and the Kansas win solidifies that.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 18% chance. Played on day 2 and beat UCF. Next up 4 seed Texas Tech. I don’t see them getting the AUTOBID, so they will have to rely on their gaudy stats (undeserved?). They did lose at West Virginia and at Oklahoma State, which don’t look good on a bubble resume. Eliminated by Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Both me and Lunardi have them at a 5 seed. The game against Texas Tech will determine their seeding by quite a bit. I don’t think they can move up, but they can move down maybe to a 6 or 7 seed. Lost to Texas Tech. Might drop to a 6 seed.
Stats (3/9): T 5th Big 12, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 12 (6-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 16 (SoS 46), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral Arizona State; 5-0 win neutral NC State). They absolutely destroyed what I think is an OK Arizona State team. Put NC State away pretty easily too after trailing early.
Conference (6: 12-1, 0-0 LOSS home Cincinnati; 12-3, 0-2 WIN at UCF; 14-3, 2-2 loss at Texas Tech; 14-5, 2-4 win home Texas; 18-7, 6-6 win home Baylor): Beaten badly at home by Cincinnati in the conference opener. Nice win in game 3 at UCF on the road Beaten at Texas Tech in game 5. Controlled Texas in game 7. Beat Kansas State at home in game 10. Really nice game 13 win over Baylor at home. Beaten at Kansas State in game 14 the very next game. OUTSTANDING win AT KANSAS in game 15. Won at home against TCU in game 16. Came to play at Iowa State and almost beat them on the road in game 17. Beat Oklahoma State at home to finish 10-8 in conference.
Players and Coach: Could lose to a big powerful team in the tournament because they aren’t huge. BYU in the Big 12 is really interesting, because they will really benefit over time from the physicality. But in this year? We will see, but I think so. Waterman leads them and they have a bunch of tall athletic players. Knell a guard can really score. And unlike in many previous years, a tougher BYU team will be much harder to beat in the tournament. They did show a total lack of discipline at the end of the game, but I don’t think that will last at BYU. BYU REALLY pissed of 2 teams in a row, so I wonder about them personality wise. Pope is in his 5th year as head coach.

San Diego State. They lost to all 6 of the other top 7 Mountain West teams on the road.
Prediction: 1st MWC; 5 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Home against Boise State left. They are in even if they lose that and are beaten in the Mountain West.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30% STEAL. Will be motivated to restored order in the conference and get the AUTOBID. All these other good teams! Ledee makes them an AUTOBID threat. Dutcher is a tournament coach. Eliminated by New Mexico in the MWC final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: San Diego State is in the Mountain West morass and a lot of the seeding depends on what happens in the tournament. San Diego State has 3 more losses than Utah State, for example, but they have the Gonzaga win and fame so if they have a good tourney they are the top Mountain West seed, especially if they beat Nevada and Utah State.
Stats (3/8): 5th MWC, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 19 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 20 (SoS 26), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (6: 3-1 win neutral Washington; 7-1 loss at Grand Canyon; 7-2 win home UC Irvine; 9-2 win home Stanford; 10-2 WIN at Gonzaga). Kind of struggled to put Cal State Fullerton away, but they won by a ton of points in the end. Held off a game Washington team in the end. Lost at Grand Canyon, but that is a super tough place to play. Controlled Stanford. Missing Ledee they almost lost at home to UC Irvine, but won! Outstanding non-conference win at Gonzaga on the road.
Conference (11: 13-2, 2-0 WIN at San Jose State; 14-2, 3-0 loss at New Mexico; 15-3, 4-1 loss at Boise State; 16-4, 5-2 loss at Colorado State; 16-5, 5-3 win home Utah State; 18-5, 7-3 loss at Nevada; 19-6, 8-4 win home New Mexico; 20-6, 9-4 loss at Utah State): Started 3-0 in conference, beating Fresno State, UNLV and San Jose State. Then lost at New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State in games 4, 6 and 8. Beat Nevada, Wyoming and Utah State at home in games 5, 7, and 9. Road win at Air Force in game 10. Last possession OT road loss at a very game Nevada in game 11. Nice win over Colorado State in game 12 at home. Beat New Mexico at home in game 13. Beaten at Utah State in game 14. Crushed Fresno State on the road in game 15. San Jose State came to play, but lost in game 16. Beaten at UNLV in a key seedings loss game 17. Beaten at home by Boise State to finish the conference at 11-7.
Players and Coach: Defensive team with some bigs. Jaedon Ledee is an outstanding NBA level player down low. Dutcher is an excellent coach and should have been rolling by tournament time.

6 Seeds

Saint Mary’s. 15-1 in the WCC, with road wins at Colorado State, San Francisco and Gonzaga.
Prediction: 1st WCC; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Beaten by Gonzaga at home and will be beaten by them again, but they are IN.
Conference Tourney Outlook: It all comes down to them and Gonzaga. If not, something weird happened. Beat the 4 seed Santa Clara and the 2 seed Gonzaga to win the WCC AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Saint Mary’s at a 7 is actually high, but they kind of earned it. I think their NET rating is way higher than it should be. Early out in the tournament.
Stats (3/2): 1st WCC, Record 24-7 (15-1), NET 17 (4-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 22 (SoS 116), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (3-3 loss home Utah; 3-4 loss at Boise State; 4-5 WIN at Colorado State). Utah took them out, dropping them to 3-4. Then they lost at Boise State, who is a middling team. Then upset Colorado State on the road which is a VERY good win.
Conference (6: 9-6, 0-0 WIN at San Diego; 11-6, 2-0 win home Portland; 13-6, 4-0 WIN at San Francisco; 14-6, 5-0 win home Pacific; 15-6, 6-0 win home Loyola Marymount; 16-6, 7-0 win home Santa Clara; 17-6, 8-0 WIN at Gonzaga): Really nice controlling season opener at San Diego. Blew out Portland and Pacific in games 3 and 6. Outstanding road win at San Francisco in game 5. Beat Loyola Marymount in game 7 at home to get to 7-0. Statement win over Gonzaga on the road in game 9. Another road win at Pacific in game 10 to get to 10-0. 12-0 after win over Pepperdine at home. Beat San Francisco for the 2nd time in game 13. Won at Pepperdine by 20 in game 15.
Players and Coach: Lost a bunch of games at the beginning of the year against a pretty tough schedule for them. Mahaney is their star, and they have a Marciulonis who can score, and they are proving to be a major threat in the WCC. Bennett is a very good coach who knows what to do in close games.

Kansas. Where to seed Kansas would be a big question if they weren’t already a 7 or 8 seed.
Prediction: 4th Big 12; 5 Seed; 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. Lots of Big 12 losses affect their seeding.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 24% AUTOBID. Seed from 4 to 7 stil. With their bigs they are a major AUTOBID threat. With their lack of depth they will probably go out. Kansas as a 7 seed would be SOMETHING! Eliminated by Cincinnati in the 2nd Round of the Big 12 tournament.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: They play 11 seed Cincinnati without their two all-star bigs. I think they lose the game, almost intentionally. Should they be in the tournament if they lose? Not sure. Probably with a much lower seed. If they win without those two that’s a really good sign. Where to seed them? Beaten by Cincinnati. I’m moving them down to a 6 seed and maybe lower if the two stars aren’t back.
Stats (3/9): 5th Big 12, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 15 (7-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 17 (SoS 2), Lunardi 3 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 2-0 win neutral Kentucky; 4-1 win neutral Tennessee; 6-1 win at UConn; 8-1 win home Missouri; 9-1 win at Indiana). Won a close one with Kentucky early. Defeated a very good Tennessee team pretty handily. Then beat UConn at home in a real war. Then won at home with a game Missouri team, and on the road at Indiana. All nice wins.
Conference (8: 14-2, 2-1 WIN at Oklahoma State; 16-3, 4-2 loss at Iowa State; 17-4, 5-3 win home Houston; 18-4, 6-3 loss at Kansas State; 18-5, 6-4 win home Baylor; 19-6, 7-5 WIN at Oklahoma): Barely won their conference opener at home with TCU. Blow out wins home and away with Oklahoma State in games 4 and 8. Close win at home with Cincinnati in game 6. Beaten at Iowa State in the first conference loss I saw and a close game. Beat Houston at home in a top of the conference showdown in game 9. Beaten at Kansas State in game 10 to get to 4 losses in the tough Big 12. Nice win against Baylor in game 11. Absolutely destroyed at Texas Tech in game 12. Excellent road win in game 13 at Oklahoma on the road. Beat Texas at home without McCullar. Beaten by BYU at home without McCullar in a major upset for Kansas. Beaten by Baylor on the road in a bad separation and seeding game 16. Recovery win blowing out Kansas State at home in game 17. Beaten at Houston by 30 to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Kansas has all the national championship components. Defense, size, scoring, experience. Wins against a VERY tough schedule. McCullar is a candidate for player of the year. And so is Dickinson. I don’t see them losing before the final four.

Texas Tech. Starting to look really good for them, but the loss home to Texas hurts.
Prediction: 6th Big 12; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 3rd and 11-7 in the Big 12.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. 4 seed. Double bye. Play 5 seed BYU in the quaraterfinals. One of the many Big 12 teams that have to fight it out. Beat BYU. Lost to Houston.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: I have them as a 6 seed, Lunardi has them as an 8. They play BYU in a big seeding game for both teams who are already in. Texas Tech is among the best teams in the Big 12 all year and deserves a seed higher than Lunardi’s 8. Their conference tourney tells me about a 6 seed is right.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd Big 12, Record 22-9 (11-7), NET 35 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 27 (SoS 49), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 loss neutral Villanova; 4-1 win neutral Northern Iowa; 5-1 win neutral Michigan; 5-1 loss at Butler). Texas Tech is big, and defense oriented. One smaller guard, but the team is just giant. They stayed in the game with Villanova. They won a close one with a struggling but good Northern Iowa on a neutral floor. Then crushed Michigan on a neutral floor. Lost in overtime at Butler but that’s not really a bad loss.
Conference (8: 11-2, 0-0 WIN at Texas; 13-2, 2-0 win home Kansas State; 14-3, 3-1 win home BYU; 16-3, 5-1 loss at TCU; 17-6, 6-4 win home Kansas; 18-7, 7-5 win home TCU): Outstanding controlling conference opening win at Texas on the road. Excellent home wins in games 3 and 5 vs. Kansas State and BYU. Blown out by 20 at Houston in game 4. Beaten at TCU in game 7. Beaten at Baylor in game 9. Excellent home win over Kansas in game 11. Nice seeding win in game 13 home against TCU. Beaten at UCF in game 14 in a BAD seeding loss. Beaten at home by Texas in kind of a weird game for them in game 15. Won at West Virginia in game 16. Beat Baylor at home in a really nice closing win at home to tie them for 3rd at 11-7 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not a lot of offense. Washington is really big and talented. Touissant is an improving point guard maybe in the right system. Williams, Isaacs and Cambridge also talented. McCasland, the new coach, seems to know what he is doing.

Gonzaga. I can’t believe they lost to Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament.
Prediction: 2nd WCC; AUTOBID; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win at Kentucky virtually guarantees they are in. Destroyed the 3 seed. Destroyed the 1 seed. Lunardi is insane. But they have at Saint Mary’s but they are in no matter what.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Clinched the 2 seed. Bye to the semifinals. Will win the conference. Eliminated by Saint Mary’s in the West Coast final.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Gonzaga lost 2 of 3 to Saint Mary’s, but still deserve to be seeded much higher than them and they deserve a 6 seed. May be seeded 7 or 8, but that would be a tragedy given the 7 and 8 seeds they are in competition with.
Stats (3/2): 2nd WCC, Record 24-6 (14-2), NET 16 (3-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 15 (SoS 113), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (7: 2-0 loss neutral Purdue; 3-1 win neutral UCLA; 7-1 loss at Washington; 8-2 loss neutral UConn; 8-3 loss home San Diego State; 17-6 WIN at Kentucky). Saw them first against an even better Purdue team, but they are clearly gonna win a ton of games and be a very high seed once again. Handled Syracuse, UCLA and USC no problem. Then lost at Washington in a game I saw personally when Washington played out of their minds. The controlled by UConn in Seattle and by San Diego State at home. Won February matchup AT KENTUCKY.
Conference (11-4, 2-0 LOSS at Santa Clara; 13-5, 4-1 win home San Francisco; 16-5, 7-1 home win Loyola Marymount; 16-5, 7-1 LOSS home Saint Mary’s; 16-6, 7-2 win home Portland): Lost at Santa Clara in game 3, which is a big loss for Gonzaga. Nice win in game 6 with San Francisco at home. Destroyed Loyola Marymount in game 9 at home. Massive home loss for conference standings to Saint Mary’s in game 9. Back at home for game 10 win with Portland. Beat Loyola Marymount on the road in game 11. Beat Santa Clara in a separation game 14 at home. Absolutely destroyed San Francisco the 3 seed by 30 on the road in game 15. Beat Saint Mary’s on the road in a dominant soul crushing win game 16.
Players and Coach: Ike is a powerful down low player with talent and footwork. Watson a great forward. Nembhard of course is an excellent guard transfer. Supporting cast is great, but they did not show in the UConn game which tells me they will struggle in the tournament. At one point, I thought they had 5 probably NBA players on the floor at once.

7 Seeds

Washington State. Kind of the ultimate college basketball team this year. Can lose to teams that have NBA Stars, but they also can beat them.
Prediction: 2nd Pac 12; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win at Arizona helps them a TON for NCAA seeding purposes (also they beat them at home). I don’t think the home upset against Washington hurts them. Next up the Pac 12 quarterfinals against the winner of the 7/10 game.
NCAA Seeding Outlook: Washington State, if they perform in the Pac 12 tourney, is moving up from a 7 seed. If they lose in the quarterfinals, they are a 7 seed. Eliminated by Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. Want to avoid the quarterfinal upset. The semifinals will be good games.
Stats (3/7): 2nd Pac 12, Record 23-8 (14-6), NET 44 (6-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 41 (SoS 83), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (10-4, 1-2 LOSS home Oregon; 10-5, 1-3 WIN at USC; 15-6, 6-4 WIN at Washington): Lost at home to Oregon in game 4. Great win at USC in game 5. Beat Washington on the road in game 11 to get to 7-4 and 3rd in the Pac 12. OUTSTANDING national recognition win AT ARIZONA to take the lead in the conference race in game 16. Then beaten at Arizona State in a major letdown game 17. Recovered and beat USC at home in game 18. And beat UCLA at home in game 19. Beaten at home by Washington in a game that says a bit more about Washington than them, to finish the conference at 14-6.
Players and Coach: This is a really long organized capable team that will beat you with ball movement and several scorers. The coach is totally nondescript.

Nebraska. Good Nebraska team. A little undersized for the Big Ten. GREAT on defense. On the bubble.
Prediction: 6th Big 10; 11 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. 4 Quad 1 Wins. Upset at Ohio State in a BAD tourney hopes loss. 12-8 and that should get them in the tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Got the 3 seed in a very poor at the middle of the top Big 10. Eliminated by Illinois in the Big 10 semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: They are in at a 8-11 seed.
Stats (3/10): T 3rd Big 10, Record 22-9 (12-8), NET 40 (4-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 33 (SoS 72), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win home Rider; 5-0 win home Duquesne; 7-0 loss home Creighton). Beat everyone, including Duquesne a good mid major, early. Absolutely crushed by Creighton.
Conference (11: 13-4, 2-3 loss at Rutgers; 13-5, 3-4 win home Northwestern; 14-5, 4-4 loss at Maryland; 16-6, 6-5 loss at Illinois; 16-7, 6-6 loss at Northwestern): Lost at Minnesota in game 1, which do not bode well for their NIT hopes. But excellent wins at home against Michigan State, Indiana and Northwestern in games 2, 3 and 8. Then easily controlled at Wisconsin and Iowa in games 4 and 5, followed by another loss at Rutgers in game 6. Beaten at Maryland in game 9. Nice home win against Wisconsin in game 10. Games 12 and 13 losses at Illinois and NOrthwestern to drop below .500 in conference. Beat Michigan and Penn State at home in games 14 and 15. Beat Indiana on the road in a huge resume win to get to 9-7 in the Big 10. Dominating win at home over Minnesota in game 17. Upset at Ohio State in game 18. Beat Rutgers at home in game 19. Won at Michigan to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: Hoiberg I think does some really good things with the talent he has at Nebraska. Tominaga, the guard, is a very solid guard who can score but needs to develop his consistency and physicality in the Big 10. Do they have enough size to beat the big Big 10 teams? I don’t think so.

New Mexico. Hanging on on the bubble and UNLV might take their bid. 7 Mountain West teams?
Prediction: 6th MWC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 50%. Have lost 6 of their last 10 games, including AIR FORCE in game 15. They have at Utah State left. I think they are still in but need some tourney wins.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 12% STEAL. Definitely one of the favorites to get the AUTOBID, but it is tough.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:.
Stats (3/9): T 6th MWC, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 27 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 34 (SoS 89), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (9-1 win at New Mexico State). Very nice start at 12-1. They were in a close war at New Mexico State, which is a game with a ton of energy, but won.
Conference (13: 16-3, 4-2 WIN at San Jose State; 18-3, 6-2 LOSS home Boise State; 19-4, 7-3 LOSS home UNLV; 19-5, 7-4 WIN at Nevada; 20-5, 8-4 at San Diego State; 21-7, 9-6 at Boise State). Controlled at Colorado State in their conference opener, which isn’t unexpected. Then controlled Wyoming in game 2 at home. Outstanding dominant wins at home with San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada in games 4, 5 and 8, and on the road in game 6 at Air Force. Beat Nevada at home in game 8 easily. Beaten at home by Boise State and UNLV in games 9 and 11, real warning signs for this team. Excellent road win at Nevada in game 12. Beaten at San Diego State in game 13. Excellent home win against Colorado State to stay at 5 losses in game 14. Beaten by Air Force at home in a classic Richard Pitino loss in game 15. Beaten at Boise State in a separation loss game 16. Beat Fresno State at home in game 17. Beaten at Utah State to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Get to the line a lot. Jamal Mashburn Jr. is obviously talented. Jalen House is the leader without him. Dent also can score. They have some bigs and some talent. Pitino is a liability in close games.

Utah State. Keep on winning in the brutal Mountain West. Wins at UNLV and Boise State on the road.
Prediction: 2nd MWC; 8 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. They have only 4 losses in the Mountain West.
Conferene Tourney Outlook: Gonna be brutal. Eliminated by San Diego State in the MWC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 1st MWC, Record 26-5 (14-4), NET 32 (4-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 43 (SoS 90), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (6: 15-1, 3-0 WIN at UNLV; 19-2, 7-1 loss at San Diego State; 18-4, 7-3 home Boise State; 20-4, 8-3 WIN at Wyoming; 21-4, 9-3 loss at Colorado State; 21-5, 9-4 win home San Diego State): Outstanding last second win at UNLV in game 4. Then beaten at New Mexico and San Diego State in games 5 and 9. Absolutely blew out Boise State in game 11 at home in a really good standings win. Nic win in game 12 at Wyoming on the road. Beaten by almost 20 at Colorado State in game 13. Rebounded extremely well with a home win against San Diego State in game 14. Won at Fresno State in game 15. Beat Air Force at home in game 16. Won at San Jose State in game 17. Beat New Mexico at home to finish the conference at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Osobor is a double double machine to lead them, and may be the Mountain West player of the year. Falslev is a good shooter at guard. Brown can shoot it at times too at guard. Sprinkle is the name of their coach.

8 Seeds

Boise State. This team keeps winning games in the Mountain West, but might lose their last 2.
Prediction: 4th MWC; 10 Seed; NCAA First Four Win.
At-Large Watch: 100% IN. The win over San Diego State puts them in the tournament, top 4 in the Mountain West.
Conference Tourney Outlook: Have clinched a top 5 seed with the separation win over New Mexico at home. They are a REALLY tough out in any tournament game. Of their 5 conference losses, 2 were to Utah State. Eliminated by New Mexico in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/8): T 2nd MWC, Record 22-9 (13-5), NET 28 (5-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 38 (SoS 60), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (2-1 neutral Virginia Tech; 2-2 neutral VCU; 3-2 neutral Butler; 3-3 home Saint Mary’s). Played an OK Virginia Tech team close, but were not able to measure up. Then won a back and forth game with fellow high mid major VCU on a neutral floor. Then got destroyed by Butler on a neutral floor. Nice win at home against an OK Saint Mary’s team.
Conference (6: 11-4, 2-0 WIN at Nevada; 12-4, 3-0 LOSS home UNLV; 12-5, 3-1 13-5, 4-1 WIN at Fresno State; 14-6, 5-2 WIN at New Mexico; 20-8, 11-4 home New Mexico): Road wins at San Jose State, Nevada, and Fresno State in games 1, 3, and 6. Disappointing loss in game 4 with UNLV at home. Then beat San Diego State at home in game 7 in a great win. Even better took out New Mexico on the road for their fourth conference road win. Beaten at Utah State in game 11. Crushed Fresno State and San Jose State in games 12 and 13. Won at Wyoming by 20 in game 14. Beat New Mexico at home in a key standings and seeding game 16. Beaten at home by Nevada in another key standings game 17, this time a loss. Won at San Diego State in game 18 to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is one of those fighter teams that is super hard to beat because of their effort, and they have enough talent to compete at the top. Abo is an NBA talent, physical and can move. Rice, the son of the coach, can really light it up. Rice, the dad, their head coach, seems capable.

Dayton. Dayton will be nervous on selection sunday with their 4 A10 losses. Must beat VCU at home.
Prediction: 1st A10; AUTOBID; 6 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 95% IN. Beaten at Richmond, VCU, George Mason, and Loyola Chicago in conference, and in 3rd in the A10. Win home against VCU is massive for their at-large hopes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 40% STEAL. Will be the 2 or 3 seed. Very likely to win the A10 tournament. Richmond or Loyola Chicago may steal the A10 AUTOBID, but if Dayton lose in the tournament, they are in anyway given their NET ratings. Eliminated by Duquesne in the A10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: First they have to get into the tournament, which involves winning at least one game in the tournament, and probably beating Loyola Chicago. Dayton is the best non major conference team in America, if you count the Mountain West as a major conference (which it is). I think a 6 seed for a 21 NET team is totally reasonable and they will challenge the top teams. But they could be seeded lower if they lose early in the A10 tournament. They lost to Duquesne in the quarterfinals and now will be nervous on selection Sunday, but I think they are in.
Stats (3/8): 3rd A10, Record 24-6 (14-4), NET 21 (3-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 30 (SoS 87), Lunardi 7 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Northwestern; 1-1 win neutral LSU; 2-1 win neutral Saint John’s; 3-1 loss neutral Houston; 6-2 home win Troy). Bad bubble buster loss to Northwestern in their second game. Very close win over LSU despite being smaller. Then beat St. John’s pretty easily, and lost to Houston badly, but who wouldn’t. Controlled Troy easily.
Conference (10-2, 0-0 WIN at Davidson; 12-2, 2-0 WIN at Duquesne; 16-2, 6-0 loss at Richmond; 18-3, 8-1 WIN at St. Joseph’s; 19-3, 9-1 loss at VCU; 22-5, 12-3 at Loyola Chicago): Excellent road win in game 1 at Davidson, proving they are probably the class of the conference. Followed that with two wins over A10 top half teams in Massachusetts and at Duquesne in game 3. Easy win over Saint Louis in game 4 and at home with Rhode Island in game 5. Finally beaten at Richmond in game 7 in a key game for the AUTOBID. Beat St. Bonaventure at home in game 9. Road win at St. Joseph’s in game 10. 2nd conference loss at a game VCU in game 11. Beat Fordham in a close game in game 13. Beaten at George Mason in game 14 for their 3rd conference loss. Beat Davidson by 20 in game 15 at home. Beaten at Loyola Chicago in game 16 on the road for their 2nd loss in 3 games. Wiped out Saint Louis in game 17 on the road. Beat VCU at home in a really nice comeback win to finish the conference 14-4.
Players and Coach: Holmes is an excellent lean and long star player. Santos is very good too. So nice core and may outperform this early prediction. Grant is a good calm head coach.

Virginia. Big game next at Duke for NCAA seeding purposes.
Prediction: 3rd ACC; NCAA 2nd Round; 6 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 96% IN. Their NET is not outstanding, and their Ken Pom is worse, but they are winning a ton in the ACC and are the 3rd place ACC team. Might want to win their quarterfinal ACC game to be in for sure.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 20% STEAL. They have the 3 seed. As usual, a likely early round exit they are not coached for tournament wins, and no stars. Eliminated by NC State in the ACC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: People really have Virginia on the bubble, but I see them getting in almost no matter what happens. They were third in the ACC and don’t really have any bad losses at all. I think they get seeded high and everyone complains. But need a win against BC first.
Stats (3/9): 3rd ACC, Record 22-9 (13-7), NET 51 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 66 (SoS 77), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 3-0 win home Texas Southern; 4-1 win neutral West Virginia; 4-1 loss neutral Wisconsin; 5-1 win home Texas A&M; 9-1 loss at Memphis). They look very good early in the season. 10-1. Only loss early against a big athletic Florida team. Barely heldoff a undermanned West Virginia team, but that’s what Virginia does. Then got absolutely destroyed by a disciplined experienced Wisconsin team. Beat #14 Texas A&M pretty easily. Then blown out at Memphis at the end of December.
Conference (15: 12-5, 3-3 WIN at Georgia Tech; 14-5, 5-3 WIN at Louisville; 16-5, 7-3 WIN at Clemson; 17-5, 8-3 win home Miami; 18-5, 9-3 WIN at Florida State; 19-5, 10-3 LOSS home Pitt; 20-8, 11-6 at Boston College): Blown out in game #2 at Notre Dame on the road. Wins in games 3 and 6 home with Louisville and Virginia Tech. Beaten at NC State and Wake Forest in games 4 and 5. Road wins at Georgia Tech and Louisville in games 7 and 9. Won game 8 with NC State at home. Beat Notre Dame in game 10 at home to get to 7-3 in the ACC. Road win at Clemson in game 11 to establish some room at the top of the ACC at 8-3. Home win against Miami in game 12. Excellent road win at Virginia Tech in game 13. They were 2-3 so 8 wins in a row. Then suddenly game 14 loss home against Pitt which happens to Virginia. Beat Wake Forest in game 15 at home. Absolutely blown out by 35 at Virginia Tech in game 16 which I’m gonna call a one-off. NOPE. Beaten at home by North Carolina the next game (17). Good road win at Boston College to kind of right the ship in game 18. Crushed at Duke in game 19 in a bad perception loss. Beat Georgia Tech at home to finish the conference at 13-7.
Players and Coach: No athletic bigs, but super organized and know how to play. Beekman is a serious force at guard. Dunn is a very good defensive player. McKneely a third solid guard. And the bigs can defend and are organized. Will find a lot of ways to win at times, and can lose any one game. Bennett is a regular season coaching genius!

Michigan State. 10-10. Lost first round to Minnesota in the Big 10 and miss the tournament? Is that possible?
Prediction: 5th Big 10; 9 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 60% IN. It’s Michigan State so absent a catastrophe they are in. They are potenteally mid-catastrophe. And tournament dangerous, always. .500 in the Big 10 is NOT good for them. Still have at Indiana in the finale which both teams really want.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 18% STEAL. 8 seed. Dangerous game against Minnesota in the 8/9 game and then they have Purdue. Izzo is a tourney coach. Dangerous for them as they have a target on their backs and they have proven themselves vulnerable. Eliminated by Purdue in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/10): T 6th Big 10, Record 18-13 (10-10), NET 23 (4-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 19 (SoS 12), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (10: 0-0 loss to James Madison; 1-1 loss neutral Duke; 3-2 loss neutral Arizona; 4-5 win neutral Baylor). James Madison took them out, as they were way too casual outside of Tyson Walker. Against both Duke and Arizona (likely final four teams) they trailed the whole way and lost, but kept in touch. Totally controlled the game against a good Butler team. The absolutely blew away #6 Baylor on a neutral court. Home with Indiana State they were challenged but won going away at the end.
Conference (12: 4-4, 0-0 loss at Nebraska; 11-7, 3-4 WIN at Maryland; 13-8, 5-5 win home Maryland; 15-9, 7-6 WIN at Penn State; 17-9, 9-7 LOSS home Iowa): Lost at Nebraska, Northwestern, and Illinois in games 2, 4, and 5. Beat Rutgers and Minnesota at home in games 6 and 7. Big road win in game 8 at Maryland. Lost game 9 at Wisconsin. Game 11 win at home with Maryland. Beaten by Minnesota in game 12 to drop to 6-6 in the Big 10. Great home win against Illinois to get back to 7-6. Wins at Penn State and Michigan to get to 9-6 with 5 games to go. Then beaten at home by Iowa AND Ohio State in games 16 AND 17 which does NOT help them. 3 losses in a row losing at Purdue in game 18. Beat Northwestern in a very close one at home in game 19, adrecovery game for this team. Lost at Indiana to finish the conference season 10-10.
Players and Coach: They play an insanely tough schedule. It’s crazy. Lots of experience. Izzo. Walker Hall Hoogard Holloman. Not huge. No real bigs. Athletic 6-5 freshman guard Carr will help. Another freshman guard Fears as backup at point.

NCAA Tourney Round One (teams 33-64 in the tournament)

9 Seeds

Northwestern. They keep winning games. Dealing with injuries late.
Prediction: 4th Big 10; 7 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 85% IN. 4 Quad 1 wins helps. They are very likely to get an at-large bid now.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 27% STEAL. Buie by himself can win the Big 10 tourney. I don’t think they can beat both Illinois and Purdue in 2 straight games. Got the double bye and the 4 seed, and will probably be in the semifinals against Illinois and Purdue and lose. But the Big 10 can provide surprises of course. Eliminated by Wisconsin in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: I’m pretty sure they are in unless they lose in the quarterfinals badly but I still have them on the bubble. Northwestern is dealing with a lot of injuries and may get seeded lower as a result. Need victories in the Big 10 tourney to sustain the 7 seed. With the Wisconsin loss they do have to pay attention on selection sunday but they are in. Will be an 8 or 9 seed probably.
Stats (3/9) T 3rd Big 10, Record 21-10 (12-8), NET 50 (4-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 42 (SoS 52), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference: (5: 4-0 loss neutral Mississippi State; 7-1 LOSS home Chicago State; 7-2 at DePaul; 8-2 neutral Arizona State). They beat Dayton, who is supposed to be good. Led early against Mississippi State, but got worn down. Blew out Arizona State. But REALLY bad home loss to Chicago State. Won at DePaul (big deal).
Conference (13: 5-1, 0-0 win home Purdue; 10-3, 1-1 win home Michigan State; 11-3, 2-1 WIN at Penn State; 13-4, 4-2 loss at Nebraska; 13-5, 4-3 win home Illinois; 17-8, 8-6 at Indiana): OUTSTANDING home wins against Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Ohio State in games 1, 3, 8, and 9. Blowout loss at Illinois. Close road win at Penn State game 4. Close losses at Wisconsin and Nebraska in games 5 and 7. Close win home against Maryland in game 6. Took Purdue to OT on the road in game 10. Beaten in game 11 at Minnesota on the road. Beat Penn State at home in game 13. Beaten at Rutgers in game 14 to fall to 8-6. Nice conference road win at Indiana in game 15. Win at Michigan to get to 10-6 in conference. Another road win at Maryland in game 17 and they are taking care of business. Beaten at home by Iowa in game 18 in a bad loss. Beaten at Michigan State for their 2nd consecutive loss in game 19. Beat Minnesota at home to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach: Northwestern has Boo Buie and a supporting cast that is obviously good based on early season results. They lost Berry one of their key guys in mid-February which really hurts them. I initially thought they were not going to be good, but started the season 6-1 with excellent wins. They are in the tourney as of now. Chris Collins is a very experienced Big Ten coach at this point that coaches teams up.

Nevada. I saw them live. They have NBA talent and teams will look past them. Major tourney dark horse.
Prediction: 3rd MWC; 9 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 80% IN. Outstanding wins at Colorado State and at Boise State, proving this team is REALLY REALLY good. Also beat UNLV in their last 2 games.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 30%. They are a VERY tough out with their NBA level guards. Eliminated by Colorado State in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 2nd MWC, Record 26-6 (13-5), NET 31 (7-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 35 (SoS 93), Lunardi 6 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 win at Washington; 10-1 win neutral TCU; 11-1 win neutral Georgia Tech). Nevada is a legitimate tournament team that could fall back and out, but I think they have enough talent and athletes to get in. They certainly looked the part against a fairly average Washington team. What they did to win at Washington was execute, over and over again. Excellent bubble win controlling TCU on a neutral court.
Conference (9: 15-1, 1-0 LOSS home Boise State; 15-4, 2-3 win home Colorado State; 18-5, 5-4 win home San Diego State; 19-5, 6-4 LOSS home New Mexico; 19-6, 6-5 WIN at UNLV): Beaten at home by Boise State in what I will call an anomaly. No shame in the loss at San Diego State in game 3. Nice controlling wins in game 6 and 8 home with Colorado State and San Jose State. NCAA worthy win home with San Diego State in game 10. Brutal conference standings loss in game 11 to New Mexico at home. Beat Wyoming at home in game 13. Won at San Jose State in game 14. PHENOMENAL WIN on a last second half court heave by Lucas to beat Colorado State on the road. Beat Fresno State at home in game 16. Another PHENOMENAL win in game 17 to win at Boise State where no one has won this year. Beat UNLV at home to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: This is a very well coached and talented team that could make a run to the Sweet 16 with some upsets. Davidson is a rapidly improving forward learning to compete in the Mountain West. Lucas, a guard, is their best player. Blackshear is another good, big, talented guard who looks like an NBA player.

Grand Canyon. Dangerous team in the tournament even though undersized because of the talent level.
Prediction: 1st WAC; AUTOBID; 9 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. Should probably get a win in the WAC semis to confirm.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 65% IN. Tarleton State and Seattle U are dangerous. They are kind of lucky 2 seed Tarleton is not eligible for the post season. So they just have to get to the final. They should win the AUTOBID. If not, and 2 late losses show it is possible, some at-large team will pay, because this team is probably getting in anyway.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 1st WAC, Record 27-4 (17-3), NET 53 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 56 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 12 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral San Francisco; 3-0 loss neutral South Carolina; 6-1 win home San Diego State; 7-1 win at Liberty). Beat a good San Francisco and San Diego State but lost to South Carolina in a non blowout loss. Very nice win at Liberty who is a fellow tournament team.
Conference (no games seen): Beaten at 2 seed Tarleton State in game 17. Then really upset by Abilene Christian in game 17 on the road – UGLY. Beat UT Rio Grande Valley in game 18 at home. Beat Stephen F. Austin at home in game 19. Beat Cal Baptist on the road to finish at 17-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Probably NBA pick in Dion Grant Foster. Nice point guard in Harrison who won’t make mistakes. Averaging 20+ early. Will win games because Grant Foster is the best player on the floor in any given game. They might get a much higher seed by end of the year.

Florida Atlantic. I think if they avoid the upset in the 1st round of the American they are a LOCK.
Prediction: 2nd American; 8 Seed; Second Round.
At-Large Watch: 99% IN. Took care of business in their last week, including beating Memphis in a controlling win.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 2 seed. Will face a real fight for the AUTOBID with multiple teams. Eliminated by Temple in the American semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: They are almost certainly in. They beat a TON of teams with tourney aspirations. But a good performance in the Ameircan tourney will help and maybe the American gets only 2 bids and they are the 3rd team?
Stats (3/9): 2nd American, Record 24-7 (14-4), NET 33 (2-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 38 (SoS 91), Lunardi 9 Seed
Non-Conference (8: 2-1 win neutral Butler; 3-1 win neutral Texas A&M; 5-1 win home Liberty; 7-1 LOSS neutral Illinois; 9-2 WIN neutral Arizona). This team is tested and excellent. Led all the way against really good Butler and Texas A&M in a real war. Lost to Illinois in another war. GREAT win on a neutral floor against ARIZONA. Controlled Virginia Tech, Liberty, Charleston, and St. Bonaventure. Held to a close game in their conference opener at home with East Carolina.
Conference (7: 11-4, 1-1 WIN at Tulane; 16-4, 6-1 win home North Texas; 18-4, 8-1 loss at UAB; 18-5, 8-2 WIN at Wichita State; 20-6, 10-3 win home SMU; 21-6, 11-3 lost at Memphis): Didn’t see their first conference loss. Barely escaped Tulane on the road in game 3. Starting to control the conference with wins in game 5 and 8 with Wichita State and North Texas at home. Beaten at UAB in game 10 to fall to 8-2 and 3rd in conference. OT Road win at Wichita State in game 11. Beat Temple at home in game 12 to get to 10-2. Good separation win home against 4 seed SMU in game 14. Beaten at Memphis in game 15 in a bad loss if they lose to them again at home. Beat Tulane at home in game 16. Excellent controlling win over Memphis to finish the conference at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Final four team from last year, with EVERYONE back. Won against an excellent non-conference schedule. Organized and capable and well coached with everyone playing their roles well. Goldin is a huge controlled center. Davis is an NBA level guard.

10 SeedsIndiana State. 26-5 on the year. Wow.
Prediction: 1st MVC; 10 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 65% IN. They lost in the tourney final to Drake I think they are still in.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 0% AUTOBID chance. They were the 1 seed, and beat the 9 seed Missouri State and the 4 seed Northern Iowaa, and lost by 4 final to Drake.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/3): 1st MVC, Record 26-5 (17-3), NET 29 (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 45 (SoS 138), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (6-1 win at Bradley; 11-1 loss at Michigan State). They beat Bradley and then they were really in the game at Michigan State until the end.
Conference (15-3, 6-1 WIN at Murray State; 17-3, 8-1 win home Bradley; 19-3, 10-1 win home Drake): Only conference loss through 11 games is Drake on the road. Controlling win at Murray State in game 8 to go 7-1 in conference. Two games later, really nice conference standings win in OT against Bradley at home. In a real close war with Drake at home in game 12, and won to get to a 2 game lead for 1st in the MVC. Won at Valparaiso in game 17 to get to 14-3. Won at home against UIC in game 18. Holding serve with another win on the road at Evansville in game 19. Beat Murray State at home to finish 17-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Indiana State has a true point center in Avila, who is a stat monster in the MVC. Swope is a fast point guard that can score. Larry is a good scorer for them. Team passes the ball well, is well organized and disciplined. They can shoot the three too. They will definitely compete in the MVC.

Colorado. Back in 3rd place where they belong honestly.
Prediction: 3rd Pac 12; NIT 1 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Really on a big surge at the end of the season with 6 straight wins.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 22% STEAL. Clinched the 3 seed. Very dangerous tournament team with all their talent. Definitely 2nd most likely to beat Arizona even though they lost to them by 40. Eliminated by Oregon in the Pac 12 final.
Stats (3/9): 3rd Pac 12, Record 22-9 (13-7), NET 27 (2-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 27 (SoS 79), Lunardi 11 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Richmond; 4-0 loss neutral Florida State; 5-1 loss at Colorado State; 6-2 win neutral Miami). Colorado is ranked in the top 20 early, and you can see why. They destroyed #15 Miami in their ninth game. They have a lot of the components, but barely beat Richmond and then lost to Florida State on a neutral floor. Richmond is always a tough game and they looked good in a real war of a game early. Florida State is also always a tough game and they lost pretty badly. Then lost a very competitive game at Colorado State.
Conference (10: 11-4, 2-2 loss at California; 12-5, 3-3 win home Oregon; 14-5, 5-3 WIN at Washington; 16-7, 7-5 LOSS home Arizona; 16-8, 7-6 loss at UCLA; 16-9, 7-7 WIN at USC): Eked out a home win missing some players against Washington. Then lost to Arizona by 40 – yikes! Lost to Arizona State in game 4. Terrible loss at Cal in game 5. Rallied with wins home with USC and Oregon in games 6 and 7. Road win at Washington in game 9. Beaten at home by Arizona in game 13. Fell to .500 in the Pac 12, which is NOT good in game 14 at UCLA on the road. Road win at USC, just barely, in game 15. Beat Utah by 24 at home in game 16 in a key bubble game. Beat Cal and Stanford in games 17 and 18 at home. Won their 5th straight in a massive win at Oregon in game 19. Won at Oregon State to finish the conference season at 13-7.
Coach and Players: I saw this team live at Washington and they are REALLY good. On a good night, hard to beat. A near NBA level star in Simpson. Williams is a legit NBA level big freshman guard. Da Silva is a solid big. Lampkin is a fun giant big. Other size down low, defense, experience.

Texas. They are at the magic Big 12 line of .500 in conference. IN.
Prediction: 9th Big 12; 10 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 65% IN. Beaten at Kansas and at Baylor. .500 in the Big 12, which will get them in the tournament.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: Can beat anyone in the Big 12. Seeding TBD. Eliminated by 10 seed Kansas State in the Big 12 1st Round.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook: Texas is probably on the good side of the bubble, even with the Kansas State loss. But further analysis to be done.
Stats (3/9): 8th Big 12, Record 20-11 (9-9), NET 26 (5-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 25 (SoS 28), Lunardi 8 Seed
Non-Conference (3-0 win neutral Louisville; 4-0 loss neutral UConn; 6-1 loss at Marquette; 7-2 win neutral LSU). Played a very close game with a game Louisville in a kind of bad performance, and won on a buzzer beater. Then played an excellent UConn team well in a close and fun early season loss. Then absolutely destroyed by Marquette in a game they did not play well. Controlled LSU.
Conference (8: 11-2, 0-0 LOSS home Texas Tech; 13-5, 2-3 WIN at Oklahoma; 14-5, 3-3 loss at BYU; 14-6, 3-4 LOSS home Houston; 14-7, 3-5 WIN at TCU). Two home losses and two road wins by game 6. Surprised at home in their conference opener by Texas Tech. Great last possession win home with Baylor in game 5. Beaten at BYU in game 7. Real war to OT home with Houston in game 8, but lost. Nice conference road win at TCU in game 9. Beaten at Houston in game 12. Nice home bubble win against Kansas State in game 13. Beaten at Kansas in game 14 to fall to 6-8 in the Big 12. Then great win at Texas Tech in game 15 in a massive game for their NCAA hopes. Beat Oklahoma State at home in game 16. Led against Baylor but got controlled in the end on the road in game 17. Beat Oklahoma at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Abmas is one of the NCAA’s all time leading scorers. Shedrick is really really big and long probably a good NBA player. Early dark horse for player of the year? He looked awesome. Mitchell is averaging almost a double double. Cunningham and Hunter are also very nice players.

Drake. Drake is the best mid-major bubble team on the outside looking in right now. I think they should be in but what I think doesn’t matter. Could use the MVC title.
Prediction: 2nd MVC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Four Win.
At-Large Outlook: 50% IN. Really bad NCAA hopes loss at Northern Iowa late. Drake should win their last game home against Bradley and get to 25-6. Then win 2 games in the tourney and lose. 27-7. Is the MVC a 2 bid league? I think it is, but Drake has to get into the field and Indiana State has to stay there. Drake has a win over Nevada which is outstanding.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID. Beat 10 seed Evansville, 3 seed Bradley and 1 seed Indiana State to get the AUTOBID.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 2nd MVC, Record 25-6 (16-4), NET 48 (3-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 55 (SoS 126), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (11-2, 2-0 win home Illinois State; 12-2, 3-0 loss at Belmont; 13-3, 4-1 WIN at Southern Illinois; 18-4, 9-2 loss at Indiana State; 19-5, 10-3 WIN at Bradley). Absolutely blew out Illinois State in game 3 in conference. Then absolutely blown out 1 game later at Belmont on the road. Won at Southern Illinois in game 6. They really fought back from down 20 at Indiana State showing they are 1 or 2 in the MVC. Second place separation game winning at Bradley in game 14. Bubble loss at Northern Iowa in game 18 that really hurts their NCAA hopes even though Northern Iowa is good. Barely won at UIC in game 19. Beat Bradley at home to finish the conference at 16-4.
Players and Coach: They have stacked up a bunch of wins in the non-conference and should win a lot in the MVC. Indiana State might take their bid, but it should be close. Tucker Devries, son of the coach, a big and long shooting guard, is their lead scorer. Wright is another really good guard. Brody is really huge on the inside for the MVC. Gonna be hard to keep them out of the tournament. Devries is in his 6th season as coach and does have an excellent overall record.

11 Seeds

Oregon. What is their 2nd best win? At Washington? Neutral win against Georgia?
Prediction: 4th Pac 12; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 20% OUT. Lost 2 key games at the end at Arizona and home against Colorado. Beat Utah, and has a rematch looming with Utah in the Pac 12 quarterfinals. Must win for any NCAA hopes.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% STEAL. AUTOBID. 4 seed. Could steal the AUTOBID from Arizona in the tourney, but for a 4 seed they have very little chance, and would have to beat Colorado or Washington State in the final too. Beat 5 seed UCLA, 1 seed Arizona and 3 seed Colorado to win the Pac 12 tournament.
Seeding and Bubble Watch: Beating UCLA in the Pac 12 quarterfinals is a MUST win for them and their NCAA tourney hopes.
Stats (3/9): 4th Pac 12, Record 20-11 (12-8), NET 68 (2-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 69 (SoS 75), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 win neutral Georgia; 4-0 loss neutral Santa Clara; 4-2 win home Michigan; 7-2 loss neutral Syracuse): Outplayed Georgia early and won. Another nice win, at home, against Michigan in a bubble busting game.
Conference (8: 10-3, 2-0 WIN at Washington; 11-3, 3-0 WIN at Washington State; 14-5, 5-3 LOSS home Arizona; 14-6, 6-3 WIN at USC; 15-6, 5-3 loss at UCLA): Led the whole way with USC at home. Much closer with UCLA, Washington, and Washington State but won all three. Beaten at Colorado and Utah in games 6 and 7. Beaten at home by conference favorite Arizona in game 9. Road win at USC in game 10 to get to 7-3. Home win in game 11 with Washington. Good win on the road at Stanford in game 15. Lost at Cal in a brutal NCAA bubble loss. Beat Oregon State in game 17 at home. Lost at Arizona and home to Colorado in games 18-19 in games that show where they blong in conference. Beat Utah in a bubble saving last game when Utah missed a wide open 3 at the end to finish the conference at 12-8.
Coach and Players: Were missing three players, including two 7 footers, to injury. They are VERY small due to injuries, and I think that drops them down. Georgia transfer Akuendo should help once healthy. Couisinard, a forward, is also a good player. Shelstad the guard is really developing. Riggsby is a crazy good shooter. Dana Altman is still an excellent in-game coach. They should be top half of the conference, IF they get all their players back.

NC State. Definitely not in the top of the ACC.
Prediction: 8th ACC; NIT 6 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 1% OUT. 10 seed. 2nd round game with Syracuse is a must win as is every game.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 8% STEAL. NC State plays Louisivlle in Round 1. Other ACC teams have more stars. Likely out early.
Seeding and Bubble: Must win against Louisville in Round 1, for the NCAAs and probably to stay in the NIT. Beat Louisville! Next up is 7 seed Syracuse in a likely loser out game, certainly for the NCAAs and maybe also for the NIT for NC State. Beat Syracuse! Next up is 2 seed Duke! Massive opportunity game for them. Beat Duke! Is it enough to get into the tournament at 19-14? I don’t think so!
Stats (3/9): 10th ACC, Record 17-14 (9-11), NET 80 (1-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 76 (SoS 69), Lunardi OUT.
Non-Conference (7: 3-0 win neutral Vanderbilt; 4-0 loss neutral BYU; 5-0 loss at Ole Miss; 7-2 loss home at Tennessee). Controlled the games against Vanderbilt and UT Martin on a neutral floor. Then led early against BYU but wore down and lost by a lot. Then got killed by Ole Miss on the road. In the game at Tennessee but lost.
Conference (15: 4-2, 0-0 WIN at Boston College; 9-3, 1-0 WIN at Notre Dame; 11-3, 3-0 LOSS home North Carolina; 11-4, 3-1 WIN at Louisville; 13-4, 5-1 LOSS home Virginia Tech; 15-7, 7-4 LOSS home Pitt): They won their first three road games at Boston College, Notre Dame, and Louisville, and beat Virginia and Wake Forest at home in games 3 and 6 in very nice wins. Lost by 15 at home to North Carolina in game 4 and by 12 at home to Virginia Tech in game 7. Lost a close one at Virginia and Syracuse in games 8 and 9. Won games 10 and 11 with Miami and Georgia Tech at home. 3rd home loss in conference with Pitt in game 12. Lost at Wake Forest in game 13. Excellent road win in game 14 at Clemson to get to 8-6. Beaten at home in game 15 by fellow bubbler Syracuse. Beat Boston College at home in game 16. Beaten at Florida State and North Carolina in game 17 and 18. Beaten at home by Duke in game 19. Lost at Pitt to finish the conference at 9-11.
Players and Coach: Jayden Taylor maybe their best player as a long guard. Horne is scoring a ton for them. Burns is the nations most fun big man. Keatts is maybe the least well known major conference coach, but he has been there 7 years already.

11 Seeds – First Four

Clemson. They have too many super high quality wins to not be in the tournament, but maybe?.
Prediction: 4th ACC; 8 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 80%. Clemson has a GREAT non-conference record, and are at 11-8 in the ACC which is a pretty good record. The road win at North Carolina is a GREAT resume win. May need a tourney win.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% chance. Got the 6 seed. IF they get to the quarterfinals their game against Virginia could be an elimination game. Eliminated by Boston College in the 2nd round of the ACC tournament.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 5th ACC, Record 21-10 (11-9), NET 26 (5-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 24 (SoS 33), Lunardi 5 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral Davidson; 5-0 win at Alabama; 6-0 win at Pitt; 7-0 win home South Carolina; 8-0 win neutral TCU). Clemson won the early Asheville tournament, beating UAB and Davidson. Then won at Alabama, home South Carolina and neutral with TCU. Starting 8-0, with four major conference wins, means they are moving up in my rankings after I thought there were pretty bad at the beginning of the year.
Conference (12: 6-0, 1-0 WIN at Pitt; 12-4, 2-3 LOSS home Georgia Tech; 12-5, 2-4 WIN at Florida State; 14-6, 4-5 LOSS home Virginia; 14-7, 4-6 WIN at North Carolina; 15-7, 5-6 WIN at Syracuse; 16-7, 6-6 home Miami): Won at Pitt in their conference opener and at Florida State in game 7, both nice wins. Controlled at Miami and Virginia Tech in games 2 and 3. Beat Boston College at home without Post in game 4. Lost at home to Georgia Tech in game 6. Almost beat Duke on the road in game 8. Beat Louisville in game 9 at home. Beaten by Virginia in a tough bubble loss for them to drop to 4-6 in conference. Outstanding road wins at North Carolina and Syracuse in games 11 and 12. Beat Miami at home in game 13. Beaten at home by NC State in game 14 in a BAD bubble loss. Road win at Georgia Tech in game 15. Beat Florida State and Pitt at home in games 16 and 17 which are both good bubble wins. Then beaten at Notre Dame in a bad bubble loss game 18. Key recovery win over Syracuse at home to get to 11 wins with one to go in game 19. Beaten at Wake Forest to finish the conference at 11-9.
Players and Coach: They have a really big front line, led by the center Hall and the forward Shieffelin who are good. But lacking in high major physicality and it is wearing them down.

Colorado State. Colorado State is in DEEP trouble, despite the GREAT nonconference.
Prediction: 5th MWC; 11 Seed; NCAA 2nd Round.
At-Large Watch: 52% IN. 7 seed with a brutal quarterfinal with Nevada looming.
Conference Tourney Outlook: They will be the 6-7 seed in the Mountain West Tournament. Hard to win the Mountain West from that position. Too many tough games.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 6th MWC, Record 22-9 (10-8), NET 36 (5-7 Quad 1), Ken Pom 36 (SoS 64), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (6: 4-0 win neutral Boston College; 5-0 win neutral Creighton; 6-0 win home Colorado; 7-0 win neutral Washington; 9-0 LOSS home Saint Mary’s). Absolutely dominated my preseason NCAA Champion pick Creighton on a neutral floor. Beat game Colorado and Washington teams, but just barely. Then they lost at home against a Saint Mary’s team who really came to play. Controlled New Mexico in their conference opener at home.
Conference (6: 15-3, 3-2 loss at Nevada; 15-5, 3-4 win home San Diego State; 16-5, 4-4 WIN at Fresno State; 19-5, 7-4 loss at San Diego State; 19-6, 7-5 win home Utah State): Pushed, but beat UNLV at home in game 5. They lost their first four conference road games at Utah State, Boise State, Nevada and Wyoming. Excellent home win against San Diego State in game 8 to get back to .500 in conference. First conference road win at Fresno State. Beaten at San Diego State in game 12 to drop to 7-5. Rebounded nicely to beat Utah State by 20 in game 13. Beaten on the last possession at New Mexico in game 14. Beaten on the last possession at home by Nevada in game 16. Beat Wyoming in game 17 at home. Won at Air Force to finish the conference at 10-8.
Players and Coach: Well coached, athletic. Stevens, the point guard, is a potential All American, and shoots the 3 like crazy and has almost 8 assists a game (3rd in the nation). Clifford, another guard, is really developing. Medved is one of the hottest young coaches in America.

Texas A&M. Really experience capable team that can beat anyone. Inconsistent as hell.
Prediction: 8th SEC; NIT 1 Seed
At-Large Watch: 50% OUT. Lost the opportunity game to South Carolina at home. Finally ended their 5 game losing streak of pretty bad losses, and won their first test game in the final 3 at Georgia on the road. Beat Mississippi State at home in their second test game. Have at Ole Miss to see if they are in or out, plus the tourney.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10% STEAL. Inconsistent. Taylor is a great player to have in the conference tourney, but as the 6 seed, they will have to beat the 3, 2 and 1 in the SEC. Yikes. Better to move up. Eliminated by Florida in the SEC semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 7th SEC, Record 18-13 (9-9), NET 49 (6-6 Quad 1), Ken Pom 52 (SoS 18), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (9: 5-0 loss neutral Florida Atlantic; 5-1 win neutral Iowa State; 6-1 loss at Virginia; 7-2 loss home Memphis; 7-3 loss neutral Houston). Controlled the full game against a probable tournament team in Penn State. Then played from behind against an apparently excellent Florida Atlantic, but were in the game. Nice come from behind win against a decent Iowa State team. Then lost at Virginia fairly easily and lost to Memphis at home. Played Houston to a one or two possession game and lost.
Conference (13: 9-4, 0-0 LOSS home LSU, 9-6, 0-2 win home Kentucky; 10-7, 1-3 WIN at LSU; 12-7, 3-3 LOSS home Ole Miss; 14-8, 5-4 win home Tennessee; 15-8, 6-4 LOSS at Vanderbilt; 15-9, 6-5 at Alabama): Terrible conference opening loss at home to LSU. Played Auburn very close on the road in game 2. Beat Kentucky at home in game 3 in OT in a real war. Then lost on their last possession at Arkansas in game 4. Really nice rebound win at LSU in game 5. Beat Missouri at home in game 6. Then beaten at home by Ole Miss in game 7. Won very close bubble game at home against Florida in game 8 . Win at Missouri in game 9. Excellent blowout win over TENNESSEE in game 10, proving their tourney worthiness. Followed by a TERRIBLE road loss at Vanderbilt in game 11 to fall back to 6-5. Beaten at Alabama in game 12 to drop to .500. TERRIBLE home loss to Arkansas in game 13. Beaten at Tennessee badly in game 14. Beaten at home by South Carolina in game 15. Held court by winning at Georgia in game 16, a nice win. Beat Mississippi State in a GREAT bubble win in game 17. Beat fading Ole Miss by 26 on the road to finish 9-9 in the SEC, and they are on the bubble.
Players and Coach: Taylor is the SEC preseason player of the year. Radford is another really nice guard. Coleman is an excellent college forward that is a tough guard. What their supporting cast does in any game wiill determine a lot. Buzz Williams is a very experienced capable coach.St. John’s. They might sneak in with a good conference tournament.
Prediction: 7th Big East; NIT 3 Seed.
At-Large Watch: 34% OUT. Great home win over Creighton, and a road win at Butler, helps their resume. If they get to the final and lose, the might make the NCAA tournament. Maybe with a semifinal loss.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 13%. I’m not a believer in this team. They might actually NOT want the 5 seed so they can get one more win for their resume to make the NCAAs. As with all Big East teams, will need 4 tough wins to get the AUTOBID. Beat Seton Hall. Eliminated by UConn in the Big East semifinals.
Stats (3/9): 5th Big East, Record 19-12 (11-9), NET 37 (4-9 Quad 1), Ken Pom 32 (SoS 35), Lunardi 1st OUT
Non-Conference (13: 1-0 loss neutral Michigan; 1-1 win neutral North Texas; 1-2 loss neutral Dayton; 2-2 win neutral Utah; 4-2 win at West Virginia). They lost badly to Michigan, really struggled with a good North Texas team, lost to Dayton, and beat Utah easily. Decent win with West Virginia on the road.
Conference (10: 10-4, 2-1 WIN at Villanova; 11-4, 3-1 win home Providence; 12-6, 4-3 LOSS home Marquette; 12-7, win 4-4 home Villanova; 13-8, 5-5 LOSS home UConn; 14-11, 6-8 home Seton Hall): Beat Butler, Villanova and Providence, all rated above them, in games 3-5. Almost won on the road at Creighton in game 6. Blown out at Seton Hall in game 7, and then beaten by Marquette at home in game 8. Beat Villanova easily in game 9, putting them above the bubble line. Loss at Xavier in game 10. Beaten in game 11 by UConn at home. Beat DePaul in game 12 at home. Beaten at Marquette and Providence in games 13 and 14 to drop to 6-8 in conference. Bad tourney chances home loss to Seton Hall in game 15. Won at Georgetown in game 16. GREAT bubble win home with Creighton in game 17 so maybe? Road win at Butler in game 18 also helps a LOT! Wiped out DePaul in game 19. Beat Georgetown to finish the Big East at 11-9.
Players and Coach: Rick Pitino is coaching this team and has a bunch of new players so anything can happen. Soriano, at center, is a giant NBA body who is a double double machine and by himself creates problems even in the Big East. Jenkins has been coming on at guard. But don’t bet against a Pitino team as I am here. Having Soriano as your horse makes a big difference but is it enough in the Big East?

12 Seeds

Samford. The class of the Southern. Might steal an at-large if they lose in the Southern tourney Final, but it doesn’t look like it with their NET at 80. Have to win their tournament.
Prediction: 1st Southern; AUTOBID; 11 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 3%. They had more of a chance until they lost at Mercer and at Wofford. Have to win the conference tournament.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% IN AUTOBID! Clinched the 1 seed. Samford lost a 2nd conference game at Mercer and a 3rd loss at Wofford which really hurt their at-large chances. UNC Greensboro and Chattanooga are their rivals for the AUTOBID. Beat 8 seed Mercer, 5 seed Furman, and 7 seed East Tennessee State to win the Southern AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Southern, Record 26-5 (15-3), NET 80 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 87 (SoS 250+), Lunardi 13 Seed
Non-Conference (0-0 loss at Purdue). Samford had all kinds of problems with Purdue, who were on fire and very mad after going out as the #1 seed last year in the tournament They were slaughtered.
Conference (15-2, 4-0 WIN at Western Carolina; 20-3, 9-1 WIN at UNC Greensboro; 22-3, 11-1 win home Western Carolina): In a real war at Western Carolina, and won. Then handled 2 seed UNC Greensboro in game 10 to get to 9-1. Crushed Western Carolina to get to 22-3. Beat ETSU at home in game 16. Lost at Wofford in game 17 by 20+ that I will atrribute to them having clinched. Beat the Citadel at home to finish 15-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: They are an excellent offensive team that scores a ton and knows how to move the ball. Good upset pick in the NCAA tournament if they get there if the other team isn’t too big. On a 15 game winning streak when I saw them. They have a really nice big in Achor who had 35 at Western Carolina who looks major conference ready and WILL be a major transfer portal target. Bucky McMillan coached only in high school before this job, and looks like a child, but is just absolutely winning. Future major conference coach.

James Madison. 28-3, with two losses to Appalachian State.
Prediction: 2nd Sun Belt; AUTOBID; 11 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 49% OUT. Hard to keep a 28 win team out of the tourney with a win at Michigan State and over Akron.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% chance AUTOBID! 2 seed so have to beat Troy then Appalachian State to get the AUTOBID. The semis and the final in the Sun Belt will be wars as probably only one bid from the conference. Beat 10 seed Marshall, 11 seed Texas State, and 4 seed Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt AUTOBID.
Stats (3/1): 2nd Sun Belt, Record 28-3 (15-3), NET 52 (1-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 61 (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-0 WIN at Michigan State; 4-0 win neutral Southern Illinois; 5-0 win neutral Fresno State; 21-3 win home Akron). James Madison beat Michigan State, and started 6-0 so I’m putting them in the tourney from the Sun Belt as the autobid. Dismantled, then held off at the end, a Southern Illinois team who is reasonably good. Excellent bubble win over MAC leader Akron in the February MAC/Sun Belt challenge.
Conference (18-2, 6-2 loss at Appalachian State): Lost both games with Appalachian State, in close games. Won at Georgia Southern in their 2nd of 4 road games to end the year to get to 13-3 in conference. Won at Georgia State in game 17. Won at Coastal Carolina in game 18 to finish 15-3 in conference.
Players and Coach: Not huge. Edwards is a midsized excellent player that plays like a west coast NBA player. More a college basketball team that can execute, but have talent.

Duquesne. Had them much higher at the beginning of the year, and at the end they are coming up
Prediction: 9th A10; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 2% Chance. If they won out and got to the final they would be like 24-12. That might get them in.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 9% OUT. 6 seed. Await the winner of the 11/14 game. Two massive opportunity wins at George Mason and at VCU at the end of the regular season. Definitely a mid pack team with a chance of stealing the AUTOBID.
Stats (3/9): 6th A10, Record 20-11 (10-8), NET 90 (1-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 98 (SoS 96), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (1-0 win neutral Charleston; 4-1 loss at Nebraska). Excellent guards should help them have a good season in the Atlantic 10. Came ready to play against Charleston. They look very solid and physical enough to be a threat in any game, and they rallied big time to really dominate a very good Charleston team. Lost to Nebraska in a game they were controlled. I think they are gonna be fine, because Nebraska played really well in that game.
Conference (7: 9-4, 0-1 loss at Loyola Chicago; 9-5, 0-2 LOSS home Dayton; 12-8, 2-5 WIN at Rhode Island; 13-9, 3-6 WIN at St. Bonaventure; 16-10, 6-7 at Fordham): Lost conference opener at Loyola Chicago which will hurt their conference standing. Controlled at home by Dayton in game 3. Lost at St. Joseph’s in game 5 to go 0-5. Beat Fordham at home to get to 2-5 in game 7. Nice conference road wins at Rhode Island and at St. Bonaventure in games 8 and 10. Beat St. Joseph’s in a nice win at home in game 12. Beaten at Fordham to fall to 6-8 in conference and they are fading. Beat LaSalle at home in game 15. Won at both George Mason and VCU in games 16 and 17 in GREAT bubble wins. Finshed the conference with a win at home against George Washington to finish 10-8.
Players and Coach: Grant is the current A10 career scoring leader for active players. Clark is also a scorer for them. Dambrot is an older experienced coach.

UAB. Right when I put them in the NIT they lost at home to Rice by 23.
Prediction: 5th American; CBI.
At-Large Watch: 4%. They have beaten Memphis, Drake, Maryland and FAU in their season, but have 11 losses. But those 4 wins make them worth a look. But really they are on the NIT bubble at this point absent a massive win streak.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 13% STEAL. They home against SMU left. Proving themselves as worthy mid to upper table team in the conference regular season.
Stats (3/9): 4th American, Record 20-11 (12-6), NET 116 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 123 (SoS 97), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-2 WIN neutral Maryland). Beat Maryland in a neutral site game, but did not look good doing so.
Conference (12-7, 4-2 win home Memphis; 13-7, 5-2 WIN at North Texas; 14-8, 6-3 win home Florida Atlantic; 17-9, 9-4 WIN at Tulane; 18-10, 10-5 loss at Memphis): In a very close game in their conference opener at UTSA, they managed to win. Excellent home win against Memphis in game 7. Game 8 very close OT win at North Texas which separates them from UNT in conference. One possession loss at SMU in game 9. Great home win against Florida Atlantic in game 10. Won at Tulane in game 14 to get to 10-4. They lost to Rice and Wichita State in game 13 and 15 and their NIT is OVER. Beaten at Memphis in game 16. Blew out Temple in game 17. Beat SMU at home in a major seedings win and to finish the conference at 12-6.
Players and Coach: UAB does NOT look smart, at all. Vasquez is a good scorer at forward. Lendeborg another big can score in conference. Gaines is an athletic point who can create for his team. I think they do pretty well in the American, but there isn’t a lot to like about the team. Kennedy is their coach and fairly unknown.

13 Seeds

Western Kentucky. Four straight losses cramps their style.
Prediction: 3rd CUSA; AUTOBID; 12 seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. Good team but too many losses in CUSA.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. AUTOBID. 3 seed. Have to beat both Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech to get the AUTOBID. Beat New Mexico State. Beat MTSU. Beat UTEP.
NIT Watch: 1%. 3rd in the CUSA and in the CUSA final against UTEP. If they lose tiny chance of making the NIT?
Stats (3/15): 3rd CUSA, Record 21-11 (8-8), NET 151 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 200+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (5: 11-3, 0-0 home Liberty; 12-4, 1-1 home Jacksonville State; 14-6, 3-3 loss home Sam Houston; 14-7, 3-4 win home Middle Tennessee; 17-7, 6-4 win home UTEP). Really nice home conference opener, beating conference favorite Liberty. Controlling game 3 win home with Jacksonville State. Lost at home to Sam Houston in a really tough standings loss game 7. Beat Middle Tennessee at home to get back to .500 in game 8. Won game 11 home against UTEP to get to 7-4 and a half game out in conference. Lost at Middle Tennessee State in game 13 after 5 straight wins. Beaten at home by Louisiana Tech in a separation game 14. Beaten at FIU in game 15. Beaten at Liberty to finish the conference at 8-8.
Players and Coach: Fastest tempo team in Division 1. Allen is a nice good sized guard. McHenry is their leading scorer with 15 a game. New coach Lutz.

Long Beach State. Maybe outperforms the 4 seed in the Big West, could be in the tournament.
Prediction: 4th Big West; No Tournament.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. AUTOBID! 4 seed. Have the athletes and coach to win the Big West tourney.
Stats (3/9): T 5th BW, Record 18-14 (10-10), NET 150+ (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 150+ (SoS 150+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (0-1 win at DePaul). Won at DePaul in a very California way. Not a great upset as DePaul appears to have almost nothing.
Conference (11-6, 3-2 loss at Santa Barbara; 18-11, 10-7 at UC Irvine): Loss in game 6 at Santa Barbara makes 3 conference losses for them. Beaten at UC Irvine in game 18. Beaten by UC Davis at home to finish the conference at 10-10.
Players and Coach: Their team looks VERY californian – long, thin, smooth. Traore does everything for them. Dan Monson their coach, is experienced at this point.

McNeese. Easily the class of the Southland.
Prediction: 1st Southland; AUTOBID; 13 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 20%. Definitely deserve a look at 28-3 and a good NET.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 75% IN. Should win the AUTOBID for the Southland. A lot better than every other team in that conference.
Stats (3/9): 1st SL, Record 28-3 (17-1), NET 58 (0-0 Quad 1), Ken Pom 65 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 13 Seed
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (16-2, 5-0 at Texas A&M Corpus Christi): In a tough game at Corpus Christi in game 6, but pulled it out in the end. Beat Incarnate Word in game 14 at home. Beat Houston Christian in game 17 at home to get to 16-1. Won at New Orleans to finish the conference at 17-1.
Players and Coach: Wells does everything for them. Collum is a good big.

Akron. Lost 5 of their last 8 which is big trouble.
Prediction: 1st MAC; AUTOBID; 13 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. No MAC team is getting an at-large bid this year. NET over 100.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 40% IN. Split the series with Toledo, but are a game up in the loss column still. Beaten at Ohio their hardest remaining game. Lost to both Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan in their final 2 left, and both shgould be wins. Will be Akron or Toledo. Ohio and Central Michigan winning it would be upsets.
Stats (3/8): T 2nd MAC, Record 21-10 (13-5), NET 104 (0-4 Quad 1), Ken Pom 119 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (18-5 loss at James Madison). Controlled at James Madison in a game that doesn’t really hurt them profile wise.
Conference (9-4, 1-0 win home Bowling Green; 11-4, 3-0 win home Buffalo; 13-4, 5-0 WIN at Kent State; 16-5, 8-1 win home Toledo; 19-7, 11-2 win home Kent State): Controlled and pulled away from Bowling Green and Buffalo in home games 2 and 4. Nice controlling win in game 6 on the road at Kent State. Conference supremacy win in game 10 home against Toledo. Then Toledo returned the favor in game 13, beating them in Toledo. Controlled Kent State in game 14 at home. Beaten at Ohio for their 3rd conference loss in game 15. Lost at Western Michigan to finish the conference at 13-5.
Players and Coach: They have the nation’s leading rebounder in Freeman and a another good big in Ali. They will not be intimidated in the tournament against major teams, but could get blown out. Guard play seems a little suspect and I think they will struggle to win in the NCAA tourney if they get there.

14 Seeds

Yale. Need to win the tourney to stay in. NET too low in the 80s for an at-large.
Prediction: 2nd Ivy; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Deserve a look if they lose in the final to Princeton? Nope. Best non-conference win is at Santa Clara, and they have a bunch of non-conference losses to other good, but non-tourney teams.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% AUTOBID. Lost to Brown. Fell into a tie for 2nd. Will have to beat both Cornell and Princeton. I think they will.
Stats (3/9): 2nd Ivy, Record 20-9 (11-3), NET 81 (0-3 Quad 1), Ken Pom 91 (SoS 124), Lunardi OUT (Princeton 12 Seed)
Non-Conference (no games seen).
Conference (9-6, 0-0 win at Brown; 13-6, 4-0 win home Princeton; 17-6, 8-0 loss at Princeton): Controlled Brown on the road in their conference opener. Excellent conference standings win in game 5 home with Princeton. Princeton returned the favor in game 9. Beat Columbia at home in game 11. Beat Dartmouth and Harvard at home in games 12 and 13 Beaten at home by Brown in a meaningless game for them to end the season at 11-3.
Players and Coach: Mbeng is a really nice Ivy player at guard, defense and scoring. Wolf, a 7 foot center, is not fast but for the Ivy he will be a tough guard. Balanced scoring. Super experienced coach in Jones.

Vermont. I think they get the AUTOBID again this year. No reason to expect not so far this year.
Prediction: 1st America East; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. NET in the 90s and only middling wins.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 65% IN. 1 Seed. UMass Lowell or maybe Bryant could steal this AUTOBID, but Vermont will be the heavy favorite.
Stats (3/9): 1st AE, Records 25-6 (15-1), NET 97 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 97 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (2-0 win neutral Charleston; 3-0 win neutral Saint Louis; 4-0 loss neutral Liberty; 8-3 loss at Virginia Tech). Played well against Charleston, coming back hard to win. Then they dismantled Saint Louis on a neutral floor. Those are two great wins for Vermont. They barely lost to another midmajor likely tourney team in Liberty. Blown out by Virginia Tech on the road.
Conference (11-5, 1-0 home UMBC): Nice win in game 2 home with UMBC, missing their best player. Won at Albany in game 13 to go to 12-1. Beat the 3 seed Bryant by 17 at home in game 14. Beat the 2 seed UMass Lowell by 12 at home in game 15. Won at New Hampshire to finsih the conference season at 15-1.
Players and Coach: Organized, disciplined, balanced and good. Rely on the three.

Charleston. Nice team with a real chance at the AUTOBID.
Prediction: 2nd Coastal; AUTOBID; 14 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 1%. If they win out and lose in the final they will be 25-8 and worthy of consideration.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% Chance. AUTOBID. Clinched the 1 seed. They have a long history of success and are competitive at the top of the conference. The quarterfinals of the Coastal will be real wars as there are several even teams. I think if the final is Drexel v Charleston, Drexel wins. Beat the 8 seed Monmouth, the 5 seed Towson and the 7 seed Stony Brook to get the Coastal AUTOBID.
Stats (3/2): 1st CAA, Record 24-7 (15-3), NET 102 (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 106 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 14 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss neutral Duquesne; 1-1 loss neutral Vermont; 1-2 loss neutral Wyoming; 4-3 loss at Florida Atlantic). Apparently struggled to beat Iona and then Duquesne and Wyoming beat them. Not a great start to the season. Did control the game with Vermont, almost all the way and then lost. Apparently beat a good Liberty team, then were sort of in contact with an excellent Florida Atlantic team.
Conference (13-5, 4-1 loss at UNC Wilmington; 16-7, 7-3 win home North Carolina A&T; 19-7, 10-3 win home William & Mary; 21-7, 12-3 win at Towson): Played UNC Wilmington very close in game 6, but lost. Handled North Carolina A&T in game 11 to get to 8-3. Beat William & Mary in game 14 at home. Won at Delaware in game 15. Separateing road win at Towson in game 16. Beat Campbell by 23 at home in game 17. Beat Hofstra at home to finish the season 15-3.
Players and Coach: Brzovic is very good decent sized forward, and they have one great shooter – Smith. Burnham another forward is a decent player. No real point guard.

15 Seeds

Morehead State. 3 way tie for the 1 seed in the OVC.
Prediction: 1st OVC; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0%. You don’t get the AUTOBID from the OVC with a 110s NET.
Conference Tourney Review: 100% IN. They were the 2 seed, and beat SIU Edwardsville, UT Martin, and Little Rock to win the AUTOBID.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): T 1st OVC, Record 23-8 (14-4), NET 117 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 123 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 16 Seed.
Non-Conference (8-3 loss at Indiana). Led for most of the game AT INDIANA, and had a chance to win at the end, but lost.
Conference (13-4, 4-0 loss at SIU-Edwardsville; 18-5, 9-1 win home SIU-Edwardsville): Outplayed at SIU-Edwardsville in the one game I saw, but still the class of the conference. Avenged their only conference loss in game 11 with SIU Edwardsville to get to 10-1 in conference. They lost 3 in a row all of a sudden, including against 8 seed Southern Indiana at home. They won at 4 seed Western Illlinois in game 16. Beat Southeast Missouri in game 17, eliminating them. Beat Lindenwood at home in game 18 to finish at 14-4.
Players and Coach: Lost their best player for the season, which may hurt them in the OVC.

Oakland. Might be higher in the Horizon, but these Horizon teams all look the same to me.
Prediction: 1st Horizon; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% IN. 5 losses in the Horizon and a 5-6 non-conference record. won’t get you the AUTOBID.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% AUTOBID. Youngstown State, or others could steal this AUTOBID. It’s very unclear who gets the Horizon bid, but likely to be one of the top 7! Beat 8 seed Purdue Fort Wayne, 7 seed Cleveland State, and 6 seed Milwaukee to win the Horizon AUTOBID!.
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Horizon, Record 20-11 (15-5), NET 138 (1-5 Quad 1), Ken Pom 141 (SoS 150+), Lunardi 15 Seed
Non-Conference (3-3 WIN at Xavier; 6-5 loss at Michigan State). Led toward the end against Xavier, who is struggling to find themselves. Blown out by Michigan State on the road.
Conference (no games seen): Won at Robert Morris in game 18. Lost at home to the 4 seed Wright State in their 2nd to last game. Beat Detroit Mercy to finish the conference at 15-5.
Players and Coach: Watts and Townsend were money in the end of that game, and got a very nice win. Townsend is a nice power forward and they have Rocket Watts who used to play for Michigan State.

Colgate. They clinched the 1 seed with 3 games to go.
Prediction: 1st Patriot; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance. You cannot get an AUTOBID with SoS over 300.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 80% IN. They have a SIX GAME LEAD in conference, which is amazing and some kind of record.
Stats (3/2): 1st Patriot, Record 22-9 (16-2), NET 131 (0-2 Quad 1), Ken Pom 143 (SoS 300+), Lunardi 15 Seed
Non-Conference (1-0 loss at Syracuse; 6-4 loss at Illinois). Led the entire way against Syracuse but gave it up at the end. Kind of remotely in the game at Illinois which is a tough place to play.
Conference (11-8, 5-1 win home Lehigh; 14-8, 8-1 win home Navy; 19-8, 13-1 WIN at Lafayette; 20-8, 14-1 home American; 21-9, 15-2 at Lehigh): Held to a close win by Lehigh in game 7. Crushed Navy in game 10 at home. Beat their closest regular season rival to clinch the 1 seed with three games to go. In the first game after clinching the 1 seed, beaten at home by American in game 16. Beat Holy Cross in game 17 on the road. In a very close game at Lehigh in game 18 and won to finish the conference season at 16-2.
Players and Coach: Potentially dangerous team that can compete with the major conference teams for one game. Very experienced. Records is probably the Patriot player of the year. Cummins, a 6’6″ guard, is really helping them as the season progresses. But this is a great defensive team, 6th in the nation in opponents’ points per game.

South Dakota State. Class of the Summit in the regular season.
Prediction: 1st Summit; AUTOBID; 15 Seed; NCAA 1st Round.
At-Large Watch: 0% chance. NET above 150.
Conference Tourney Outlook: 100% IN. AUTOBID! 1 seed. They only have 4 losses in conference, against a real mix of teams telling me upsets are possible. Beat 8 seed Oral Roberts, 4 seed St. Thomas, and 7 seed Denver to win the Summit AUTOBID!
NCAA Seeding Outlook:
Stats (3/2): 1st Summit, Record 19-12 (12-4), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 149 (SoS 200+), Lunardi 16 Seed
Non-Conference (13-11, 6-3 home Oral Roberts):
Conference (11-9, 4-1 win home Kansas City; 12-11, 5-3 win home South Dakota; 13-11, 6-3 win home Oral Roberts): Beat Kansas City at home in game 6. Beat South Dakota in game 9 at home. Beat Oral Roberts in game 10 in a conference leader separating win. Beat Denver and St. Thomas at home in games 13 and 14. Beat North Dakota by 10 on the road to clinch the 1 seed in a CLUTCH performance. Won at North Dakota State to finish the conference at 12-4.
Players and Coach: Best team in a weak Summit League? Maybe. Not very athletic. Henderson seems OK as a coach, but not great.

16 Seeds

16 Seeds – First Four

Saint Peter’s.
Prediction: (not yet seen) 6th MAAC; AUTOBID; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 0% Chance.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 100% Chance. 5 seed. Play the 4 seed Rider in the 1st round of the MAAC tourney. Saint Peter’s beat 4 Seed Rider, 1 seed Quinnipiac and 2 seed Fairfield to win the MAAC AUTOBID.
Stats (3/9): T 3rd MAAC, Record 16-13 (12-8), NET 150+ (0-1 Quad 1), Ken Pom 200+ (SoS 300+), Lunardi OUT
Non-Conference (no games seen):
Conference (no games seen): Beat Mt. St. Mary’s on the road in game 16. Beaten at home by Quinnipiac to finish the conference at 12-8.
Players and Coach (Team not seen yet).

NIT 32 At-Large Teams (teams 69-100).

NIT 1 Seeds

TCU. TCU is building an excellent resume.
Prediction: 8th Big 12; 10 Seed; NCAA First Round.
At-Large Watch: 52% IN. Much closer to the bubble after they lost at home to UCF. Need tourney wins to get in I think.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Awfully good middle of the pack team but so is every team above and below them. Experience will help them, as will coaching, in a tough tourney. Beat Oklahoma. Eliminated by Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): T 7th Big 12, Record 20-11 (9-9), NET 40 (4-10 Quad 1), Ken Pom 33 (SoS 65), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (6-0 win at Georgetown; 7-0 loss neutral Clemson; 7-1 win neutral Arizona State; 9-1 loss neutral Nevada; 9-2 win at Hawaii). TCU played absolutely no one early and started 6-0. Against Georgetown, that was NOT evident, as they almost lost to a not very good team, winning only on a miracle buzzer beater where the refs missed a call. Then controlled by Clemson and Nevada on a neutral floor. Controlled Hawaii.
Conference (11: 12-3, 1-1 WIN home Houston; 13-4, 2-2 LOSS home Iowa State; 13-5, 2-3 WIN at Oklahoma State; 14-5, 3-3 WIN at Baylor; 16-5, 5-3 LOSS home Texas; 16-7, 5-5 WIN at Kansas State): Nearly had a superb resume win at Kansas in the conference opener, but lost. Easily beat a very good Oklahoma team at home in game 2. Outstanding game 3 win against Houston at home. Game 5 loss at home against Iowa State. Game 6 win at Oklahoma State. Tournament making win in game 7 at Baylor (triple OT). Followed that at home with a win at home against #15 Texas Tech in game 8. Beaten at home by Texas in game 9. Beaten at Iowa State in game 10. Outstanding bubble win in game 12 at Kansas State on the road. Beaten at Texas Tech in game 13 to fall to 7-6. Beat Cincinnati at home in game 14. Beaten at home by Baylor in a game they should have been more competitive in. Beaten at BYU in game 16. Beaten by UCF at home to finish the conference at 9-9.
Players and Coach: Very experienced team. They have length too. Nelson, son of an NBA star, is a nice transfer guard for them. Miller is an excellent rebounder and scorer. Dixon is an outstanding coach.

Mississippi State. Uh oh. Lost all of their very hard final 4 games.
Prediction: 7th SEC; 12 Seed; NCAA First Four Loss.
At-Large Watch: 51% IN. They are the 8 or 9 seed and will probably play LSU in an elimination game for them. They are in REAL bubble trouble.
Conference Tourney Bid Steal Watch: 10%. Good team, but so is everyone else. Hubbard can really win games for them. Eliminated by Auburn in the SEC semifinals.
NCAA Seeding and Bubble Outlook:
Stats (3/9): 9th SEC, Record 19-12 (8-10), NET 39 (3-8 Quad 1), Ken Pom 39 (SoS 29), Lunardi 10 Seed
Non-Conference (4-0 win neutral Northwestern; 6-0 loss at Georgia Tech; 6-1 loss home Southern; 6-2 neutral Tulane; 9-2 neutral Rutgers). Trailed early, then came back to dominate Northwestern who had some early wins. Then were totally controlled by Georgia Tech, and then lost to Southern, both of which are strange. Blew out Tulane. Controlled Rutgers on a neutral floor.
Conference (12: 11-3, 0-1 win home Tennessee; 12-3, 1-1 LOSS home Alabama; 13-6, 2-4 win home Auburn; 14-7, 3-5 loss at Alabama; 15-8, 4-6 WIN at Missouri). Very close loss in the conference opener at South Carolina. Great win against then #5 Tennessee in game 2. Bad resume conference home loss to Alabama in game 3. Lost at Kentucky, Florida and Ole Miss in games 4, 6 and 8. Beat Vanderbilt at home in game 5. Really nice resume win home against Auburn in game 7. Crushed at Alabama in game 9 to drop to 3-6 in conference. Won game 10 with Georgia at home. Road win at Missouri in game 11. Barely beat Arkansas in game 12 at home. Excellent bubble win home against Ole Miss in game 13 to get back to 7-6. Crushed LSU on the road for their 5th SEC game in a row to get to 8-6. Lost a major opportunity on a last possession loss to Kentucky at home in game 15. Beaten at Auburn in game 16. Beaten at Texas A&M in a big bubble loss game 17. Beaten at home by South Carolina to finish the conference at 8-10.
Players and Coach: Outstanding defensive team. Tolu Smith is a real leader at forward, probably NBA. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard is a SERIOUS player. Paris, the 2nd year coach, is unproven.