WHICH TEAMS ARE IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT? Each team linked to individual team description below. Green is a tourney lock.
NCAA Champion (1 Seed – Team #1): | Houston |
NCAA Runner-Up (1 Seed – Team #2): | UConn (AUTO Big East) |
NCAA Final Four (1 Seeds – Teams #3-4): | Purdue | North Carolina |
NCAA Elite Eight (2 Seeds – Teams #5-8): | Iowa State (AUTO Big 12) | Arizona | Tennessee (AUTO SEC) | Duke |
NCAA Sweet 16 (Teams #9-16):
3 Seeds: | Illinois (AUTO Big 10) | Auburn | Marquette | Kentucky |
4 Seeds: | Creighton | Wisconsin | Baylor | Alabama |
NCAA 2nd Round (Teams #17-32):
5 Seeds: | Florida | South Carolina | BYU | San Diego State |
6 Seeds: | Saint Mary’s (AUTO WCC) | Kansas | Texas Tech | Gonzaga |
7 Seeds: | Washington State | Nebraska | New Mexico (AUTO MWC) | Utah State |
8 Seeds: | Boise State | Dayton | Virginia | Michigan State |
NCAA First Round (Teams #33-68):
9 Seeds: | Northwestern | Nevada | Grand Canyon (AUTO WAC) | Florida Atlantic |
10 Seeds: | Indiana State | Colorado | Texas | Drake (AUTO MVC) |
11 Seeds: | Oregon (AUTO Pac 12) | NC State (AUTO ACC)
11 Seeds/First Four – 4 Lowest At Large Seeds: | Clemson | Colorado State | Texas A&M | St. John’s |
12 Seeds: | Samford (AUTO Southern) | James Madison (AUTO Sunbelt) | UAB (AUTO American) McNeese (AUTO Southland) |
13 Seeds: | Duquesne (AUTO A10) | Charleston (AUTO Coastal) | Yale (AUTO Ivy) | Vermont (AUTO America East) |
14 Seeds: | Morehead State (AUTO OVC) | Oakland (AUTO Horizon) | Colgate (AUTO Patriot) | Akron (AUTO MAC) |
15 Seeds: | Western Kentucky (AUTO CUSA) | South Dakota State (AUTO Summit) | Long Beach State (AUTO Big West) | Longwood (AUTO Big South) |
16 Seeds: | Saint Peter’s (AUTO MAAC) | Montana State (AUTO Big Sky) |
16 Seeds/First Four – 4 Lowest Ranked Autobids: | Stetson (AUTO Atlantic Sun) | Howard (AUTO MEAC) | Grambling (AUTO SWAC) | Wagner (AUTO NEC) |
MATT’S BID AND BUBBLE ANALYSIS
32 AUTOBIDS (27 LOCKS, 5 TBD)
TOP 7 AUTOBIDS: (2 finals today) – Iowa State, UConn, NC State, New Mexico, Oregon, Big 10 (Illinois/Wisconsin), SEC (Auburn/Florida)
OTHER AUTOBIDS CLINCHED NOT AT THE BOTTOM OF THE FIELD: 5 (MVC Drake, SunBelt James Madison, Southern Sanford, WCC Saint Mary’s, WAC Grand Canyon)
ONE-BID CONFERENCE AUTOBIDS CLINCHED: 17 (10 of Bottom 18 Teams in Tourney – 13-16 seeds)
American AUTOBID STEAL (UAB?)
A10 AUTOBID STEAL (VCU?)
ONE-BID CONFERENCE AUTOBIDS NOT YET CLINCHED: 1 (Ivy).
36 AT-LARGE BIDS
2 LOCKS still alive in conference tourney (2 of these 4 will get AUTOBIDS)
1: Illinois / Wisconsin who lose.
1: Auburn/Florida who lose.
21 LOCKS eliminated from conference tourney: Houston, Purdue, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Duke, Marquette, Kentucky, Creighton, Baylor, Alabama, San Diego State, South Carolina, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Washington State, Utah State, Nebraska and Boise State).
13 BUBBLE SPOTS:
Absolutely will be in (5):
Dayton (95%): Dayton’s four losses in conference all came in the 2nd half of the season, to the 1, 2, 5 and 7 seeds, all on the road. In the non-conference, they beat LSU, St. John’s SMU and Cincinnati, and they lost to Northwestern and Houston only. They lost in the quarterfinals to Duquesne which doesn’t help. What gets Dayton in is their A10 dominance and mid-major status and outstanding major conference wins.
Virginia (94%): They are the safest bubble team. Everyone likes to hate on Virginia, but in conference they only lost to the top 2 once (though they only played them once each) and to 5 other decent teams mostly on the road. In their non-conference they beat Tarleton State, Florida, West Virginia, and Texas A&M, and they lost only to Wisconsin and Memphis. They lost in the ACC quarterfinals to NC State. What gets Virginia in is being 3rd in the ACC, wins over Florida and Texas A&M, and a semifinal appearance in the ACC tourney. They do not have a single bad loss.
Michigan State (90%): Michigan State lost 4 of their last 5 to drop to the 8 seed, and lost to almost everyone in conference. In their non-conference they beat Baylor and Butler and lost to Duke and Arizona. Then they beat Minnesota (?) and lost to Purdue. NOT IMPRESSIVE. But this is Michigan State, and they played a brutal schedule to get to 19-14. 14 losses for me would normally not get in this year, but it is Michigan State. They may be out. What gets Michigan State in is Izzo and their history, exclusively. I don’t think they would get in this year if the bubble was fair. But it is NOT fair, and Michigan State gets in based on a win over Minnesota? And losing in a very tough schedule, I guess.
Northwestern (90%): Very safe bubble team. Northwestern lost at Purdue and at Illinois, but also lost 5 other road games. In their non-conference they beat Dayton and Arizona State, and lost only to Chicago State. They lost in the Big 10 quarterfinals to Wisconsin, while dealing with some injuries which is more a seeding issue. What gets Northwestern in is their status as a top Big 10 team all year. It has been a down year in the Big 10, but they are the 5th team in from the Big 10, and there is NOT a sixth.
Nevada (82%): Nevada beat Colorado State twice, but then lost to them in the conference tournament. Not a bad loss. Nevada only lost to 2 of the top 7 on the road, plus a Wyoming loss and losses at home to New Mexico and Boise State. Nevada is on a 7 game winning streak. In their non-conference, they beat Washington, TCU and Georgia Tech, and their only non-conference loss was to Drake. They only have 7 losses on the year and a NET at 35. Pretty sure they are in. What gets Nevada in is being in the top 6 of the brutal Mountain West, and a NET rating of 35, and overall this is a tournament team.
3 Teams That Are VERY LIKELY TO BE IN:
Florida Atlantic (70%): Florida Atlantic lost to Temple in the American semifinals which is brutal, and DOES NOT HELP. Florida Atlantic’s conference record was outstanding with only losses to the 1, 3, 4 and 5 seeds on the road. In the non-conference they beat at least three fellow bubble teams, including Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Charleston, St. Bonaventure, and Arizona, losing only 3 games including one to Illinois. NET 39 is super low in this field. I think they are IN based on the fact that they were a nightmare in the non-conference this year, beating all kinds of bubble teams. And last year they were a FINAL FOUR team. I don’t think the committee keeps them out.
Indiana State (59%): Indiana State only lost 3 times in conference, at the 2 (Drake) and 6 and home against the 7. In their non-conference they beat a bunch of OK mid major teams, and lost ONLY to Alabama and Michigan State which are tough games. Then they lost in the MVC final to Drake. Indiana State deserves to be in the tourney, but they may not make it because they were not able to schedule tough teams. I think they are IN as a major concession to the mid-majors and the Missouri Valley conference. All year Drake and Indiana State were the class of the conference, and Indiana State has a kind of small team cache that the committee will love as a story. Indiana State’s NET rating is at 29 which is excellent for an MVC team. They get in over a more deserving South Florida in my opinion, and they are the last non-major conference team in the field.
Colorado (56%): Colorado won 6 in a row at the end of the year finally playing like the team they can be, but all 6 were against terrible Pac 12 teams. They lost 6 road games in the Pac 12. Their non-conference was mixed too, beating Richmond and Miami, and losing to Florida State and Colorado State. Colorado has had a great Pac 12 tourney beating Utah and Washington State, but then they LOST to Oregon in the final which is a brutal loss. I’m not confident about this pick because the Pac 12 is OVER, but Colorado will be in the Big 12 next year, they have been REALLY hot, and have the players and quality. They are definitely one of the best 36 at-large teams in the country, and their NET is at a very high 25 and would be the highest NET rated team EVER to not make the tourney.
The Real Bubble (5 bids/9 possible teams):
Conference Status For MY Bubble:
ACC: 4 IN (NC, Duke, NC State, Virginia). Clemson and Pitt under consideration.
Big 12: 6 IN (Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU). Oklahoma, TCU and Texas under consideration.
Big East: 3 IN (UConn, Marquette, Creighton). St. John’s and Pitt under consideration.
Big 10: 6 IN (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska). No teams under consideration.
Pac 12: 4 IN (Arizona, Washington State, Colorado, Oregon). No teams under consideration.
SEC: 6 IN (Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida). Mississippi State, Texas A&M.
Mountain West: 5 IN (Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico). Colorado State under consideration.
Here are my 9 final bubble teams, sorted by NET ratings:
Texas. NET 30. 7 seed Big 12. Lost to Kansas State in the 2nd round Big 12.
Mississippi State. NET 31. 9 seed SEC. Beat LSU and Tennessee, then lost to Auburn in the SEC semis.
St. John’s. NET 32. 5 seed Big East. Beat Seton Hall BE quarters, lost to UConn BE semis.
Clemson. NET 35. Lost to Boston College in the 2nd Round ACC.
Colorado State. NET 36. 6th team from the Mountain West. GREAT NET. Beat Nevada, then lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals.
Pitt. NET 40. 4 seed ACC. Beat Wake Forest in the ACC quarters, lost to NC ACC semis.
TCU. NET 42. 8 seed Big 12. Beat Oklahoma 2nd round Big 12.
Texas A&M. NET 45. 10 seed SEC, beat Ole Miss and Kentucky, then lost to Florida in the SEC semis.
Oklahoma. NET 46. 9 seed Big 12. Lost to TCU in the 2nd round Big 12.
I have Clemson, Texas, St. John’s, Colorado State, and Texas A&M IN. And Mississippi State, Pitt, TCU and Oklahoma OUT.
Clemson (52%): Clemson won 7 of their last 10 in the regular season to get back into the bubble conversation, they won and lost to random teams in conference. Clemson’s non-conference was outstanding, beating UAB, Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina, and TCU while losing only to Memphis by 2. They were eliminated by BC in the 2nd round of the ACC tourney. Clemson’s NET rating fell to 36 in the past week, which is awfully close to that 40 NET NCAA bid line. Clemson is IN based on their non-conference performance and all those great wins.
Texas (51%): Since February, Texas has only lost to nationally ranked teams. In their non-conference they played very few good teams, beating LSU and losing to UConn and Marquette. They lost to Kansas State in the 1st round of the Big 12, which is BIG trouble for them. Texas is IN based on their NET rating being at least 10 points higher than TCU or Oklahoma, and their 9-9 record in the brutal Big 12. And Texas is a media darling. I believe they definitely SHOULD be in based on their talent. Not much else, as they have been kind of unimpressive and I can see the committee taking a pass despite their .500 Big 12 amazing record.
St. John’s (51%): St. John’s is another media darling who should not make the tournament, but might anyway. A win over Seton hall, before losing to UConn in the Big East semifinals, does NOT make you a tournament team. St. John’s has won 5 straight, but only 1 against the top half of the conference in that run. 7 of their 9 losses were to the top 4 in conference. In their non-conference, they beat a bunch of New England teams and Utah and West Virginia, but lost to Dayton and Michigan. St. John’s does NOT deserve to be in on this bubble, but they are an NYC team with Pitino and all that. The Big East really had 3 good teams, and Seton Hall who finished 2 games above them are OUT. I think they are OUT. But the Big East always gets teams in and they are the 2nd best non top 3 Big East Team? SO IN.
Colorado State (51%): Colorado State had the worst conference regular season of the top 7, losing once to all of them and twice to Nevada, and also to Wyoming. But Colorado State had maybe the best non-conference in the country for who they are, beating Louisiana Tech, BC, Creighton, Colorado and Washington, and losing only to St. Mary’s. Colorado State lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals, and that is a very tough loss. I think they may be out, despite the great non-conference. If the Committee knows what it is doing, Colorado State is in the tournament. Easily one of the best 36 at-large teams. IN.
MY LAST TEAM IN AND FIRST TEAM OUT: Mississippi State and Texas A&M. In my bubble, only one can get in.
Texas A&M (51%): Texas A&M was probably out before the SEC tourney, but they do have a phenomenal NET because they played a nasty schedule. I think that means they are likely IN. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida at home in their nine wins. In their non-conference, Texas A&M beat Iowa State, Penn State, Ohio State and SMU, but lost to Virginia, Memphis, Florida Atlantic and Houston all in relatively close games. They beat Ole Miss and Kentucky in the SEC tourney which really helps, and now they have Florida in a massive opportunity game to ensure their bid. Texas A&M gets in because they scheduled very tough and though they lost a bunch of games they have a ton of good quality wins.
Mississippi State (49%). Mississippi State won 8 games, including home against Tennessee and Auburn early in the conference. In their non-conference, they beat Arizona State, Washington State, Northwestern, and Rutgers, and they lost to Georgia Tech and Southern. Mississippi State has had a GREAT SEC tournament so far, beating LSU and Tennessee which are GREAT wins. But they play Auburn today in the semifinals, and it would practically guarantee their admission to the NCAAs if they won that. They lost to Auburn in the SEC semifinals, but they are still on the bubble. Mississippi State’s NET is up to 32 which is higher than Clemson. They are OUT because Texas A&M has a BUNCH of great wins, and Mississippi State does not.
TCU (49%): TCU beat Oklahoma, Baylor, Houston, and Texas Tech in their nine wins. In their non-conference they didn’t beat anyone good and lost to Clemson and Nevada. TCU did get to .500 in the Big 12. They beat Oklahoma again in the Big 12 quarterfinals which is huge, then lost to Houston. Maybe BOTH Oklahoma and TCU miss the tourney? I think they are the first team out.
Oklahoma (48%): 5 of Oklahoma’s 8 wins were against the bottom 4, but they did beat Iowa State and BYU at home and Kansas State on the road. Oklahoma beat Providence, USC, Iowa and Arkansas in the non-conference, and lost only to North Carolina. Oklahoma lost to TCU in the 2nd round of the Big 12 tourney, which hurts them if the selection committee is doing Big 12 team math, but so many Big 12 teams should be in. Their NET is at 46 which is danger territory, and both TCU and Texas have better cases. Likely OUT.
Pitt (45%): Pitt has to be the beneficiary of ACC love to get into the tourney. People think they are in but I do NOT. Their record does not warrant it on this bubble. Seton Hall may have a better argument.
Other Teams That Were Close to the Bubble:
Seton Hall (40%): Of their 7 losses, Seton Hall lost 4 to the top 3, and home against Providence and at Xavier and at Villanova. In the non-conference, Seton Hall beat no one and lost to USC, Iowa, Baylor and Rutgers. They lost to St. John’s in the Big East quarterfinals, and their NET is all the way down at 66 (35 below St. John’s). They had a great Big East regular season. That is NOT enough.
Wake Forest (38%): Wake Forest lost 8 of 9 on the road so this is not a travel team. In their non-conference they beat Florida, but lost to LSU and Georgia and Utah. I do not think this is a tournament team. They lost to Pitt in the ACC quarterfinals, and I think they are done.
UNLV (36%): UNLV has had no respect in the Mountain West all year, and San Diego State and New Mexico have both outperformed them late. UNLV only lost 3 times to the top 7 on the road, but lost 2 at home to the top 7 and one to Air Force. In their non-conference they beat Creighton and a bunch of good small conference teams, but lost to Florida State, Richmond, LMU, Southern and Saint Mary’s. I think UNLV is in trouble with the Air Force, Southern and quarterfinal losses, despite the NBA quality of their guards. Probably will win the NIT.
South Florida (25% still alive): I don’t know what else South Florida has to do to get in the tournament. Actually I do. They have to beat UAB today to get in. If they lose that, they are in big trouble on this bubble. South Florida only lost twice in conference at UAB and at Tulsa in the last game when they had the 1 seed locked. Their non-conference was not beautiful losing to 4 mid-majors of mostly good quality, but they did beat Florida State, Loyola Chicago and Northern Iowa. If they lose to UAB, how do you let them in and NOT UAB who beat them 3 times. I think this is a must win today, but if they win their percentage goes way up. I REALLY want South Florida to be in. American conference regular season winner, great stories. But UAB is taking their bid and beat them three times and the American is NOT getting three teams in. They are barely getting 2 teams in.
Richmond (20%): Richmond’s three losses came at VCU and home against UMass, and the last game of the year at George Mason when they had already clinched the one seed. In their non-conference, they beat Charlotte and UNLV, and lost to Boston College, Colorado, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Florida. Superb regular conference season, but just no great wins to get them in. Then they were eliminated by St. Joseph’s in the A10 quarterfinals. Not a tournament team, but on the bubble. I had them in the field the whole time, but UAB ended their dreams.
Providence (18%): I think Providence has to be out if you count the injury to Hopkins in their analysis. Providence’s 10 wins included home wins over Marquette and Creighton. In their non-conference, Providence beat Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Georgia, and Rhode Island, BUT ALL OF THOSE GAMES were with Hopkins, and lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma. They should be OUT, but the media loves the Big East. They won’t be in unless emotion is a part of the consideration, which it might.
Other Teams That Really Have No Shot, but Maybe?
Cincinnati (16%). Cincinnati has a NET 37, which would be the highest NET team ever eliminated, and they will be that.
Seton Hall (15%). Very good Big East season, but their NET is at 65. No way.
UNLV (10%). The 7th Mountain West team, couldn’t get it done in the Mountain West Tourney.
Villanova (10%). Another team with a good Big East season, but too many losses.
Appalachian State (4%). The 3rd best small conference team. Not getting in.
Kansas State (2%). Greatest 71 NET team ever.
Iowa (1%). At one time had a chance, but just way too many losses at key times.
Memphis (1%). Just lost way too much in conference.
Ole Miss (1%). Great non-conference, terrible conference record.
Syracuse (1%). Had them in the tourney quite a bit this year, but lose out in the ACC tourney and conference.
Utah (1%). Pac 12 beat them up.
Ohio State (1%). Nice rally late, but already way too late.
Virginia Tech (1%). Big struggles in the ACC have an NIT resume.
UCF (1%). Way down there in the Big 12 standings.
Xavier (1%). Way down there in the Big East standings.
Butler (1%). Way down there in the Big East standings.
