Pretty awesome category killer 24 min long video on the comprehensive (LCOE and VALCOE) cost comparison between renewable and fossil fuel energy. Lots of specific accounting details and energy details, combined. Love how she keeps adding in the complexity, because it is complex.
Bottom line: who gets cheaper financing, and just exactly how much the fossil fuels themselves cost, are the two biggest factors in overall relative cost. Both of those are market driven, which is a good thing.
I would expect financing costs to be about even if the investment opportunity is the same, but with all the government thumbs on the scale for renewables, financing should be cheaper for renewables going forward. And I would expect fossil fuel costs to continually adjust to the market. So both are totally unpredictable and influenced by policy.
But on costs alone, renewable energy production is cheaper and as all the R&D money goes into them and very few into fossil fuels, this gap will widen. As that gap widens, the incentive for storage and battery technology becomes huge because you need it solar to run at night.
Anyway, the detail in here are great.